BLOOMBERG SPEECH
23 January 2013
In a long-trailed speech – the wait is compared to Tantric sex – David Cameron seeks to control his riven party and see off Ukip by pledging a future Conservative government to the “simple choice” of an in/out referendum on renegotiated terms of membership. Outers celebrate. Others, among them some of Cameron’s own party, call it a reckless gamble.
ELECTION VICTORY
7 May 2015
The Tories’ surprise election win leaves him with no wriggle room. Cameron will have to deliver on his pledge to put the question to Britain before the end of 2017. After some shenanigans in parliament, especially over attempts by the House of Lords to lower the voting age to 16, the pledge is made law.
CAMERON ON TOUR
Summer 2015-early 2016
The prime minister clocks up the air miles as he shuttles between European capitals trying to secure allies for his renegotiation and find out what the EU’s other 27 leaders might be willing to sign up to. While he makes progress on some of his ambitions, he meets too much resistance to introducing curbs on freedom of movement to be able to push the idea.
GO YOUR OWN WAY
5 January 2016
In a bid to manage the pressure building within his party, Cameron announces that Tory Brexiters will be allowed to remain members of the government even while they campaign against him over Europe. Iain Duncan Smith will soon resign anyway, ostensibly over his opposition to welfare cuts in the March budget.
THE DEAL IS DONE
18-19 February 2016
After round-the-clock negotiations in Brussels, Cameron announces that he has got the 27 other member states to agree a deal that includes a British opt-out from “ever closer union”, protection for the City from eurozone decisions and a four-year ban on in-work benefits for new arrivals. He says this will make Britain “better and stronger” in a “reformed Europe”. Outers say it amounts to diddly-squat. Both sides agree that the country must now make a once-in-a-generation decision.
LET’S PLAY NICELY
20-22 February 2016
The cabinet has a rare Saturday morning meeting. The inners and outers around the table piously agree that it should be a good, clean fight. Six of their number then declare for Brexit – and it almost immediately becomes a nasty, dirty fight. Boris Johnson comes out as an outer at an alfresco news conference, to the surprise of Cameron and also of many Boris-watchers. The next day in parliament, Cameron suggests he is just after his job.
IT’S COLD OUT THERE
8 March 2016
The Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, makes the first of several interventions, cautioning that Brexit would be a serious risk to the economy. A barrage of similar warnings pound in from the IMF, OECD, the World Bank and others. The outers reply with Norman Lamont and a suggestion from Michael Gove that a Brexited Britain could seek to emulate Albania. The inners believe they have won the argument on the economy, but are troubled that it doesn’t seem to be having as much traction with voters as they had expected.
THE EAGLE HAS LANDED
21-24 April 2016
Barack Obama enters the debate, urging Britain to stay with the EU because it is a triumph for “British values” of democracy and open markets. He adds a warning that the UK would be at the “back of the queue” for a trade deal with the US if it left. Outers reply with their now familiar cry that no one who disagrees has the right to express an opinion. Johnson disparages the president on the grounds that he is “half-Kenyan”.
NO HOLDS BARRED
23 May 2016
The outers do what Nigel Farage had always told them to do: they go big on immigration, gambling that they can use fears about migration to trump voter anxieties about the economic risks of Brexit. They unveil a poster claiming that millions of Turks will soon be coming to Britain. Inners denounce the poster as mendacious, while becoming increasingly worried that the outer strategy could be working. Farage expresses delight that Tory Brexiters are now singing his anti-migrant songs.
COMPUTER SAYS NO
7 June 2016
Appeals to unregistered voters to sign up are followed by a surge of last-minute applications too large for the government website to cope with. Parliament scrambles to pass emergency legislation that authorises an extension of the registration deadline by 48 hours. Some outers initially react by crying foul. They shut up when they twig that it is not a good look to be seen to be against maximising participation.
LABOUR DAY
13 June 2016
Jeremy Corbyn, the shadow cabinet and a chorus of union leaders urge a vote for remain amid fears that the campaign has been far too dominated by blue-on-blue slanging matches and that a chunk of the Labour vote is sliding towards leave. To the frustration of remain strategists, the Labour leader and his deputy, Tom Watson, differ on how to address immigration.
TRAGEDY
16-18 June 2016
The horrific murder of talented and admired Labour MP Jo Cox causes shock and sorrow. Cameron and Corbyn travel to her constituency for a first joint appearance in which they both declare that the politics of hate will not be allowed to prevail. It is announced that parliament will be recalled on Monday. Campaigning is suspended. The effect of her death on the referendum is unknowable, but that doesn’t stop behind-the-scenes speculation about how it might influence the vote.
