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The Independent UK
The Independent UK
Politics
Oliver Wright

EU referendum polls suggest Remain pulling back into lead after Brexit surge

The first opinion polls on the EU referendum since the killing of the MP Jo Cox have suggested the ‘Remain’ campaign is pulling back into the lead.

A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times found support for “Remain” is up 5 points to 44 per cent while support for “Leave” has fallen 3 points to 43 per cent.

About 1 in 10 voters are still undecided but, when pushed to predict which side they are more likely to support, 20 per cent plump for “Remain” — almost double the 11 per cent who say they are more likely to vote to Leave.

YouGov’s previous survey carried out last Monday had ‘Leave’ up seven points.

But the organization said they had detected a steady shift in opinion since then – with more undecided voters backing Remain. Sources in the ‘Remain’ campaign say their private polling backs this up.

The YouGov findings appeared to be backed up by two other opinion polls also published today.

A Survation poll for The Mail On Sunday found Remain had opened up a three-point lead in the wake of the killing of the Labour MP Jo Cox.

The poll was gathered on Friday and Saturday after Ms Cox’s death and showed Remain on 45 per cent with Leave on 42 per cent.

The findings reversed the result of Survation data on Thursday which had Leave ahead on 45 per cent and Remain on 42 per cent.

An Opinium poll for the Observer put both sides on 44 per cent, with 10 per cent saying they are undecided.

The online survey of more than 2,000 people was taken between last Tuesday and Friday, with 80% of the polling conducted before the death of Ms Cox, which led to the suspension of all campaigning.

The one pollster prepared to say that Ms Cox's death is affecting public sentiment is ComRes, who had a survey running for the Sunday Mirror on Wednesday and Thursday. They say voter attitudes shifted after the announcement of her death. The number delighted if we vote to leave the EU fell from 45 per cent to 38 per cent and the number delighted if we stay rose from 27 per cent to 36 per cent. Similarly, the number disappointed if we leave rose from 32 per cent to 40 per cent and those disappointed if we remain fell from 44 per cent to 40 per cent.

The EU referendum debate has so far been characterised by bias, distortion and exaggeration. So until 23 June we will be running a series of question and answer features which will explain the most important issues involved in a detailed, dispassionate way to help inform your decision.

Will we gain or lose rights by leaving the European Union?

What will happen to immigration if there's Brexit?

Will Brexit make the UK more or less safe?

Will the UK benefit from being released from EU laws?

What will Brexit do to UK trade?

How Brexit will affect British tourism​

What will Brexit mean for British tourists booking holidays in the EU?

Will Brexit help or damage the environment?

Will Brexit mean that Europeans have to leave the UK?​

What will Brexit mean for British tourists booking holidays in the EU?

Will leaving the EU save taxpayers money and mean more money for the NHS?​

What will Brexit mean for British expats?

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