Afternoon summary
- Alex Salmond, the former Scottish first minister, has said that David Cameron will have to resign if Britain votes to leave the EU. Cameron claims he will stay on to oversee the exit negotiations if that happens. But Salmond told MPs in the Europe debate that that idea was “for the birds”. Referring to the Scottish independent referendum he said:
I was the first minister who lost a referendum and then resigned the next day. And I did that because I don’t think it is credible for a first minister or a prime minister to continue in office in these circumstances. I do not believe the Prime Minister, and I don’t think a majority of the public in his party, and certainly not of the country, believes him when he says he would sail on in office with a negative vote to negotiate out of the European Union after telling people it was essential to the security and prosperity of the country, as he put it last week, for us to be in it.
The idea that a prime minster could remain in office following such a vote is, to coin a phrase, for the birds, which is exactly of course why [Boris] Johnson is right in one bit of his apparent calculation that an opening would allow a new prime minister as then he puts it, to negotiate our way back into some sort of European construct on better terms.
The second half of that probably is for the birds but at least on the first half, a vacancy being available, I think that he has a point.
- Scottish MP Natalie McGarry was detained and questioned by Turkish security forces on a visit to the country, her lawyer has confirmed. As the Press Association reports, McGarry, who resigned the SNP whip last year after being linked to an ongoing police investigation into missing funds (she denies wrongdoing) wrote on Twitter that she was “safe and absolutely fine” after reports emerged she had been detained in the country. A statement from her solicitor Aamer Anwar said:
I can confirm that Natalie McGarry MP was questioned earlier on today but was released shortly thereafter and is grateful to everybody for their messages of support. It appears that a member of the Turkish security forces became alarmed as Natalie had her mobile phone out near a security check point. She was taken away for questioning and it was subsequently explained that she was simply recording the sound of bombs falling across the border in Syria.
- Local government workers have rejected a “final” two-year pay offer. As the Press Association reports, members of Unison voted against the proposed deal which would give most council staff a 1% increase from April and a further 1% in April 2017. A Unison spokesman said: “Unison has rejected the local government pay offer, but we await the results of both the GMB and Unite consultative ballots before deciding our next steps.”
That’s all from me for today.
Thanks for the comments.
Lord (David) Owen, one of the founders of the SDP, told the Sun today he would be voting to leave the EU. He made the announcement to coincide with the publication of a book he has written, Vote to Leave. E-copies have been sent to journalists.
I can’t claim to have read it, but it contains this very useful chart - identifying the various arrangements linking European countries, and showing which country is in which group.
BuzzFeed’s Jamie Ross wins the prize for the best EU referendum intro so far.
A Ukip MEP has said he wants the UK to leave the EU because his toaster repeatedly produces rubbish toast.
The story is about the Scottish Ukip MEP David Coburn. Doubtless he has other issues with the EU too, but it’s a jolly read.
Citing this Politico Europe story as evidence, Leave.EU is criticising the European commission for holding back controversial proposals until after the British referndum is over.
Leave.EU’s co-chair Richard Tice said:
The EU is holding back demands for an extra €20bn, wider access to benefits and public services for EU migrants and a convention granting it new powers to overrule us on issues like prisoner votes until after the referendum.
These proposals are a kind of time bomb. With MEPs already threatening to tear up the prime minister’s shabby deal after the poll, Brussels will not hesitate to detonate it once a Remain vote locks us inside their failing union for another forty years.
The SNP is also calling on the government to drop its goal of getting net migration below 100,000. This is from Stuart McDonald, the SNP’s immigration spokesman.
The UK government’s net migration target is a fantasy, as everybody knows. The government does nobody any favours by pretending otherwise.
Instead of pretending the target is achievable or desirable, the government should abandon this unhelpful distraction and instead pursue a fair and sensible immigration policy that recognises the huge benefits of immigration and includes practical action to deal with the challenges.
Lunchtime summary
- David Cameron has claimed he remains “convinced” that his target of getting net migration below 100,000 remains achievable. He spoke as the Office for National Statistics released figures showing that annual net migration to Britain dipped to 323,000 in September 2015 – 13,000 lower than the record level of 336,000 recorded last June. Speaking at a Q&A at a BAE Systems plant in Lancashire, he listed the measures the government was taking to curb migratrion from within the EU and from outside it. Then he said:
I’m convinced if we do all of that we can make a real difference and reach the targets that I’ve set out.
He also claimed that leaving the EU could make it harder to control migration than it is now.
If we were to vote to leave the EU, the countries outside the EU that have full access to the single market, like Norway, they have to accept the free movement of people. In fact, if we left the EU the deal that I’ve just negotiated doesn’t stand. So we actually have to accept free movement if we’re in the same position as Norway, and we wouldn’t have the welfare restrictions that I’ve just negotiated.
- Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary, has told MPs that if Britain leaves the EU, other EU countries will not want to help Britain succeed outside. Speaking in a debate on Europe he said:
There will also be political elites [in Europe] who are looking over their shoulder at the effects of a British exit, looking over their shoulder at their political opponents in their own country, fearful that the contagion, as they would see it, may spread. And they may not wish to do anything that will help us to demonstrate that Britain can succeed outside the European Union. That is a simple political fact.
He also said that a vote to leave would be seen as Britain sticking “two fingers” to EU leaders and that “we can expect the same in return”.
- Hammond has told MPs that there could be “many years” of uncertainty if Britain voted to leave the EU and that this would have a “chilling effect” on business. He told MPs:
The one thing that is becoming crystal clear is that, whatever the end state if there were a British exit, for a period of years, maybe many years, there would be very significant uncertainty, and that would act as a chilling effect on investment, job creation and business confidence in the United Kingdom.
- Hammond has said he is voting to remain in the EU even though he has “no warmth or affection” for the institution. He told MPs:
I have always considered myself as sceptic and I consider myself a sceptic today. Like most people in Britain I don’t feel any warmth or affection for the EU or its institution. I’m irritated by the tone of much of what I hear coming from Brussels and instinctively suspicious of anything that sounds like a grande project.
But we do not live in some ideal world. We live in the real world and the EU is part of that real world.
Speaking for Labour, Hilary Benn, the shadow foreign secretary, said that he agreed with Hammond about wanting Britain to stay in the EU, but that he thought Hammond was wrong to be so negative about it. Benn told MPs in the debate.
I think we should be passionate about that greatest achievement of the European project which was by bringing nations together, originally through coal and steel, to make in the words of the Schuman Declaration future war not merely unthinkable, but materially impossible.
- Sir Nicholas Soames, the Conservative MP, has said he regularly receives “vile” abuse from anti-Europeans. Speaking in the debate, he said that he was accused of dishonouring the cause of his grandfather, Winston Churchill, because he supports the EU. Churchill gave a speech on the case for a united Europe in Zurich 70 years ago that is regularly interpreted as meaning he would have wanted Britain to stay out of the EU although, as Soames said, the speech is also open to the opposite interpretation. He told MPs:
I am daily on the receiving end of some vile emails and whatnot from people telling me that I am a traitor to my grandfather’s memory.
- Sir Gerald Howarth, a Conservative former defence minister who wants to leave the EU, has accused Cameron of helping those who favour an EU army by arguing the EU has as security role. Speaking in the debate he told Hammond:
You and the prime minister are claiming that somehow this deal enhances the security of Europe. May I suggest to my right honourable friends that by asserting that the EU has a role in defence matters of Europe, they are going down an extremely dangerous line by playing into the hands of those like Mr Juncker who want an EU army, supported also by Chancellor Merkel, and that we face a real risk that Nato is going to be undermined.
Hammond said he did not accept this.
- Lord Mandelson, the Labour former EU trade commissioner, has said a trade deal with the EU following Brexit would “not come for free”. He said:
I’m sure that the army of trade negotiators in Brussels would turn their full weight of expertise in our direction in negotiating what some people dream of as an alternative to full automatic access to Europe’s single marketplace in a free trade agreement.
All I would say about such an agreement is it would not come easily, speedily, it would not at the end of the day cover all the trade that we have access to at the moment and it certainly would not come for free.
- Cecilia Malmstrom, the EU’s current trade commissioner, has dismissed claims that the transatlantic trade and investment partnership (TTIP - the proposed EU/US free trade deal) is a threat to the NHS. She said:
I may be Swedish but I know that the NHS is an expression of the core values of British society. These issues have been particularly present in the TTIP debate. So EU trade deals have watertight guarantees to ensure that it is safe. The commission has made unambiguous commitments on this. They make clear that the government cannot be forced to privatise anything it doesn’t want to. They put no limit on the government’s ability to expand the range of public services it offers. And they do not restrict the government’s freedom to take back previously privatised services into the public domain.
- Jeremy Corbyn has put frontline community policing at the heart of Labour’s police and crime commissioner (PCC) election campaign saying “reckless” Tory cuts are threatening people’s safety and security.
- Rough sleeping has increased by almost a third in England over the past year and has doubled since 2010, according to new statistics. As the Press Association reports, “snapshot” figures published by the Department for Communities and Local Government found 3,569 people were sleeping on the streets on a typical night in autumn 2015, compared to 2,744 the year before - an increase of 825 (30%). The equivalent figure in 2010 was 1,768.
- Communities minister James Wharton has announced that the government will bid for EU cash to help victims of the winter floods. Previously the government had been resisting suggestions it should apply for money from the EU solidarity fund.
Updated
Cameron says people should not think there is a choice between trading with the EU and trading with countries outside the EU.
We should be doing both, he says.
He says after four months people will probably be sick of hearing these arguments.
But he urges people to be sure to vote, whatever their views. This is the choice of a lifetime, he says.
And that’s it. His Q&A is over.
I’ll post a summary soon.
Q: What has the EU done for the north west?
Cameron says it has helped to secure jobs.
He says today the government is announcing it will apply to the EU solidary fund for help for those affected by the floods. That could bring many millions into this region, he says.
Q: Are you saying jobs here would be in jeopardy if we left the EU?
Cameron says he thinks some jobs would be at risk. There are 3m jobs linked to Europe, he says. Of course if we left Britain would still trade with Europe. But would we trade at the same level?
He says many foreign firms invest here because it is a launchpad into the European market.
Cameron says he wants to see more defence collaboration with other countries in Europe, particularly France.
This could happen if Britain were outside the EU.
But would the French be as enthusiastic if Britain were not in the EU.
Cameron claims he is “convinced” that Britain can get net migration below 100,000
Q: [From 5 News’s Andy Bell] Isn’t it time to admit that we cannot control immigration if we are in the EU?
Cameron says the figures show immigration “coming down slightly, but it is still too high”.
The government needs to take action to curb immigration, from outside the EU and from inside the EU. It is doing both, he says.
He says he is “convinced “that if the government does all this, it can meet the target he has set out.
If we left the EU, and opted for the Norway deal, we would have to accept free movement, he says.
But the “emergency brake” welfare rules would not apply. So Britain would be worse off.
Cameron says one of the best ways to reduce immigration is to train up young people to do the jobs available.
- Cameron claims he is “convinced” that Britain can get net migration below 100,000.
(If Cameron really is convinced by this, he is probably in quite a small minority. Today we have seen groups as diverse as the IoD, British Future, the Joint Council for the Welfare of Immigrants and Ukip dismissing the 100,000 target as preposterous.)
Q: What is the government going to do to protect the interests of young people?
Cameron says the government needs to commit to education and training.
Cameron says it says something about Europe that it was willing to meet the demands of the UK.
Q: You say there has been a renegotiation. But I have not heard many details of it?
Cameron says the government has published a white paper on it. He offers to get the questioner a copy. And he runs through the four main themes of his renegotiation.
Here is the government’s 45-page document setting out details of the renegotiation (pdf).
Cameron says he trusts the “great common sense of the British people” to take the right decision on Europe
Cameron is now taking questions.
Q: It is going to take people a lot of time to read up on this. Is it really the sort of decision the public should be taking?
Cameron says he thought it was right to have a referendum because Europe has changed a great deal.
Yes, there are complicated issues, he says.
But he says he trusts “the great common sense of the British people” to take the right decision.
- Cameron says he trusts the “great common sense of the British people” to take the right decision on Europe.
Cameron is running through his stump speech on Europe. It focuses on the argument that being in the EU makes Britain better off, safer and stronger.
Voting to leave would be a leap in the dark.
Opponents of the EU cannot say how long it would take to negotiate the required trade deals, he says.
But it will be your choice, he says.
He says he is going to spend the next four months speaking as plainly as he can about this choice.
As prime minister, he thinks staying in the EU is best for Britain.
Cameron's Q&A
David Cameron has just started doing his Q&A on Europe.
He is at a workplace in Lancashire.
There is a live feed here.
WATCH LIVE David Cameron speech plus Q&A https://t.co/nlgdmLmlob pic.twitter.com/KqdbbSwVsK
— Nigel Stevenson (@NigelStevenson5) February 25, 2016
Hammond says if UK leaves EU, other EU countries will not help it succeed
Hammond says if Britain votes to leave the EU “the mood of goodwill towards Britain [in the EU] will evaporate in an instant”, he says.
He says the political elite in the rest of Europe will have “no desire at all” to show that Britain can prosper outside the EU, he says.
Hammond: "a leave vote would be seen as two fingers to European leaders and we can expect the same in return."
— Patrick Kidd (@patrick_kidd) February 25, 2016
Updated
Bernard Jenkin, a Conservative, intervenes on Hammond to say that Britain would not need to trigger the article 50 process (which gives a two-year deadline for withdrawal negotiations) to leave the EU.
Hammond says he has taken advice since Jenkin raised this point earlier this week, and he has been advised Britain would have to do this.
Hammond says the government will regard itself as bound by the result of the referendum, even though it is technically only an advisory referendum.
Hammond says there will be no second referendum. “Leave means leave,” he says. If Britain votes to leave, that will trigger the article 50 process leading to Britain leaving the EU.
Jeremy Corbyn has responded to David Cameron’s comments yesterday about his dress sense. Cameron is just jealous of the fact that Corbyn can shop on the Holloway Road, he says.
Corbyn hits back after Cameron's do up your tie jibe - "he's actually jealous" pic.twitter.com/O3NrmXRh74
— Sean Clare (@Sean__Clare) February 25, 2016
In the debate Hammond is running through what David Cameron obtained in his EU renegotiation.
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Conservative “Outer”, asks Hammond to confirm that Cameron did not secure an agreement to stop any child benefit being paid to the children of EU migrants living abroad.
Hammond says it is important to consider what Cameron achieved overall, as a package.
This is what Philip Hammond said earlier about being “irritated” by much of what he hears coming from Brussels.
I have always considered myself as sceptic and I consider myself a sceptic today. Like most people in Britain I don’t feel any warmth or affection for the EU or its institution. I’m irritated by the tone of much of what I hear coming from Brussels and instinctively suspicious of anything that sounds like a grande project.
But we do not live in some ideal world. We live in the real world and the EU is part of that real world.
The SNP’s Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh complains about Hammond’s comments about Europe. (See 12.21pm.) What will our EU colleagues think of his words, she asks.
Hammond says she should accept that people in Britain do not feel the same way about the EU as people on the continent do.
Hammond says that if Britain votes to leave the EU, there could be “very significant uncertainty” for “many years” for business. That would have a “chilling effect” on the economy, he says.
MPs debate Europe
MPs are now starting a general debate on Europe. It will go on until 5.30pm, but there is no substantive motion and there won’t be a vote.
Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary, has just started opening the debate.
He said that he did not feel any warmth or affection for the EU. Like many people, he was “suspicious” of it, he said, and “irritated by what it did.
But he said that he had nevertheless concluded that Britain would be stronger, safer and better off by remaining in.
You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories here.
As for the rest of the papers, here is the PoliticsHome list of top 10 must-reads, and here is the ConservativeHome round-up of today’s political stories.
And here are five articles I found particularly interesting.
The scale of Jeremy Corbyn’s task of returning Labour to power is made clear by analysis of the data to be used to draw the new electoral map of Britain.
Of the 50 Commons seats to be cut Labour loses almost half — 24 — while the Tories suffer only 14 losses in a reorganisation that will pit party colleagues and constituency neighbours into a series of battles for survival, according to research for The Times.
The first draft of the new map, based on electoral registers released yesterday by the Office for National Statistics, will be produced by the Boundary Commission in September and finalised two years later.
Lewis Baston, a political analyst, offers a first glimpse of the battles ahead using the data to model how the body will draw up new seats that must have no fewer than 71,031 voters and no more than 78,507. His analysis shows that Labour has been hit hard by changes to electoral registration rules that the party says account for the bulk of a 600,000 reduction in the number of people eligible to vote. The full introduction of individual voter registration to clamp down on electoral fraud by scrapping the system where “heads” of households submit all the names has coincided with sharp drops in university cities and deprived areas.
- The Sun says David Owen, one of the founders of the SDP, is voting to leave the EU. Owen told the paper he was worried about its impact on defence.
There can be only one defence organisation that we can sign up to, and that must be NATO.
Ever smaller amounts are being spent by EU countries on defence.
The biggest problem is the whole pretence of the EU. There are a lot of promises, but very little delivery, and hopeless mistakes are being made.”
It is not the kind of letter I would have originated myself, but the Prime Minister’s office presented me with a “fait accompli” saying that many other senior officers had agreed to sign it.
What I find really unfortunate is that a really big decision that will affect the country for generations to come has descended into a messy political squabble.
Earlier this month Jeremy Corbyn sported a badge saying “I Love Unions” in homage to the labour movement which helped him to power last summer.
But the honeymoon between the unions and the Labour party leader is starting to fade as the increasingly divided party slides to new lows in the opinion polls.
At least three of the biggest unions have refused to donate money to Momentum, the pro-Corbyn grassroots organisation, in a sign of the cooling relationship.
Michael Gove, the lord chancellor, is not wrong. Yesterday he explained correctly that the reform deal struck by the prime minister with the rest of the EU is legally binding in one limited sense: it is an international law declaration between 28 nations. However, what’s important is its status under EU law: if the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg considers any part of the agreement (or measures taken to implement it) to be incompatible with existing EU law, it can strike them down. For example, it might consider the restrictions on in-work benefits in the deal represent too great an encroachment on the principle of free movement of people.
Jeremy Corbyn is planning to attend the CND anti-Trident rally in London on Saturday, Rowena Mason reports.
In an article for the Times’s Red Box political email, Michael Dugher, who was sacked as shadow culture secretary, says Corbyn’s move is “frankly barmy”.
For Jeremy to share a platform with many of Labour’s political opponents – including from the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens – and denounce what is still Labour party policy is quite frankly barmy ...
This weekend’s #StopTrident demo might more accurately be called #StopLabourPartyPolicy.
Opening up what will inevitably be a divisive row for Labour is as unnecessary as it is indulgent ...
Quite simply it is an act of political sadomasochism to find an issue that the public aren’t talking about and then to put it firmly on the agenda in a way that can only damage your own party.
Updated
Vote Leave has just issued a press notice quoting Priti Patel, the employment minister, on the immigration figures. Patel is campaigning for Brexit and she says:
Once again, net migration has gone up – putting pressure on our jobs, housing, and our public services. More than half of the people coming here have come from the European Union – showing that we cannot control our borders while we remain members of the EU.
The proposed deal will do nothing to reduce the level of immigration from the EU, and will leave unelected politicians in Brussels and judges from the EU Court in control of our borders. The only way to take back control is to Vote Leave.
The Electoral Commission has published figures showing how much political parties received in donations in the final quarter of 2015.
The six parties that received the most were:
Conservative Party - £5,152,334
Labour Party - £2,669,241
Liberal Democrats - £828,657
Ukip - £196,282
BNP - £180,000
SNP - £54,030
There is more on the Electoral Commission’s website. This chart summarises the figures.
Updated
In a statement the Joint Council for the Welfare of Immigrants is also calling on the government to abandon its net migration target (getting net migration below 100,000). This is from Chai Patel, its legal and policy director.
Overall net migration figures are an unhelpful distraction from good and thorough policy making. The Government should abandon its irrelevant net migration target and instead prioritise crafting an effective, just and fair immigration system that makes the most of UK’s need for workers, as well as upholding the human rights of all residents. With the EU referendum looming, both sides of the EU debate need to be reminded that migrant workers improve the economic position of the UK and are essential for our health service, our construction industry and the burgeoning technology sector.
Ukip has issued a statement about the immigration figures. This is from Steven Woolfe, its immigration figures.
The prime minister has lost control of our borders and lost the trust of the British people on migration.
He has broken his promise to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands per year every quarter for the last six years.
Unless we vote to Leave the EU, Britain will be forever borderless. Our schools and our hospitals cannot cope with the number of people entering the country.
We must take back control of our borders and introduce a fair, ethical and sensible Australian style points based immigration system, so that we can decide who comes into Britain based on the requirements of our modern economy.
Government U-turn as minister announces it will apply for help from EU floods fund
In the Commons James Wharton, the communities minister, has announced a U-turn on flooding. The government will be applying to the EU solidarity fund for money to help the flood victims, he told MPs just now in response to an urgent question.
Until now the government has been resisting this, arguing that an application would take too much time and that it would only be of limited use.
This is from the Press Association’s Jack Maidment.
DCLG Minister James Wharton announces government WILL apply to EU Solidarity Fund for cash re: flooding.
— Jack Maidment (@jrmaidment) February 25, 2016
Like British Future (see 10.10am), the Institute of Directors is also calling for a comprehensive review of immigration targets. The IoD has repeatedly criticised the Conservatives for wanting to get net migration below 100,000. This is from Seamus Nevin, its head of employment and skills policy. Commenting on today’s figures he said:
These figures show, yet again, why a net migration target makes absolutely no sense. The fact that 94% of the year-on-year increase in net migration is accounted for not by an increase in people coming here, but by a fall in the numbers leaving, shows the futility of trying to measure ‘net’ migration. It means the government’s attempts to hit its arbitrary target are reliant not just on reducing the numbers arriving here but on increasing the number of people leaving this country as well.
Ironically, if the UK economy tanked and Britons emigrated in large numbers it would make the target more achievable.
That is why the IoD has repeatedly called for a comprehensive migration review, based on the evidence and expert advice, to set out a plan to manage migration in a way which supports our economy, works for our businesses and addresses public concerns.
Today’s immigration statistics will undoubtedly get caught up in the public debate about the EU referendum, yet neither the ‘Remain’ or ‘Leave’ campaigns are being straight with the voters. If the British people are to make an informed decision on the future of our country, then both sides in the EU debate need to set out a sensible plan for managing inward migration.
The Migration Observatory, a unit based at Oxford University specialising in immigration, has published a statement on today’s figures.
It includes a helpful overview.
The two largest categories of immigration to the UK were EU citizens arriving for work (30% of inflows) and non-EU citizens coming to study (21%). Other categories were smaller, such as non-EU work (12%) and non-EU family migration (8%).
And this is from Madeleine Sumption, the unit’s director.
She says it is hard to know what impact leaving the EU would have on immigration.
Free movement within the EU is not the only driver of recent high levels of net migration, but it has played an important role. While EU migration is a defining issue in the referendum debate, the truth is that it’s difficult to predict EU migration levels with confidence in either the stay or leave scenario. Whether Brexit would reduce migration will depend in part on the treaties and policies that followed, and these cannot be known in advance.
And she says it is impossible to predict whether immigration will remain at current levels or decline.
Sustained high levels of net migration raise the question of whether we are experiencing a temporary peak or a ‘new normal’ in the UK. In the short term, the UK remains an attractive destination with low unemployment and robust job growth so there’s no reason to expect a dramatic change to migration levels. In the long run, migration is much harder to predict. It will depend on many different factors from future policy changes to economic growth in other countries.
May says UK leaving EU would not stop Europe facing a migration crisis
Theresa May, the home secretary, has responded to the immigration figures. She says there would still be a migration crisis even if Britain left the EU.
May: "Immigration at these levels puts pressure on public services, housing, it can hold down wages & push British workers out of jobs"
— John Stevens (@johnestevens) February 25, 2016
May in Brussels: "It's in Britain's national interest to be part of the EU, working with other to strengthen Europe's external borders"
— John Stevens (@johnestevens) February 25, 2016
May: "Europe is dealing with a migration crisis - that would be the same whether UK was in EU or outside" pic.twitter.com/7eSJcAlxqC
— John Stevens (@johnestevens) February 25, 2016
British Future, a thinktank focusing on immigration and identity, says the immigration figures illustrate the need for politicians on both sides of the EU debate to be more honest about the options. This is from Sunder Katwala, its director.
When the PM and home secretary are both relieved to see net migration at over 300,000, it shows how far removed from reality the sub-100,000 target really is.
It’s no wonder the public don’t trust the government to get a grip on immigration.
It means that immigration will be a big issue in the EU referendum – and neither side is being honest with voters about what they can and can’t do about it.
If the PM and home secretary keep saying we can stay in, keep free movement and hit the target, nobody will believe them.
Leave voices say they will cut immigration significantly – but at the same time say a post-Brexit Britain will welcome more Commonwealth migrants. When non-EU migration is over 200,000 a year, they can’t have both.
The government needs to work hard to rebuild trust in its competence to manage immigration. It should start with a long, hard look at the net migration target – what could be done to meet it and what the impacts would be. Targets aren’t bad in themselves, but they have to be grounded in reality.
British Future is calling for a comprehensive review of immigration targets.
Farage says migration figures show the need to leave EU to regain control of borders
Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, is highlighting the Bulgarian and Romanian immigration figures. (See 10.02am.)
Romanian and Bulgarian figures have gone up significantly by 55,000 in the year ending September 2015, even higher than I predicted.
— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) February 25, 2016
He is also pointing out that David Cameron’s target of getting net migration below 100,000 is as far away as ever.
Net migration running at huge 323,000. Not exactly tens of thousands as @David_Cameron promised is it?
— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) February 25, 2016
I am pleased that there are now lots of voices agreeing with me, that we must Leave the European Union to control our borders. #EUref
— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) February 25, 2016
In his Guardian interview Iain Duncan Smith, the work and pensions secretary, said that he expected today’s figures (which he had not seen in advance) to show “an ever-increasing number of migrants from eastern Europe”.
He was only partly right.
The figures are here.
This shows there has been no increase in immigration over the last year from the “EU8”, the countries that joined the EU in 2004: the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.
But there has been a significant increase from immigration from the “EU2”, Bulgaria and Romania.
UPDATE: This is from Open Europe’s Pawel Swidlicki.
Looking through ONS stats - migration from EU15 and A8 basically flat, if not for Bulgaria and Romania EU migration would be down overall
— Pawel Swidlicki (@pswidlicki) February 25, 2016
Updated
Here is the chart from the ONS bulletin summarising the overall trends.
Here is more from my colleague Alan Travis.
Net migration to UK falls 13,000 from record peak of 336,000 recorded in year to June 2015. Net EU migration was 172,000 in Sept -down 10k
— Alan Travis (@alantravis40) February 25, 2016
Dip in the latest net migration figures to UK of 323,000 brings to an end seven successive quarters of rises to June record 336,000 level
— Alan Travis (@alantravis40) February 25, 2016
Here is the ONS news release summarising today’s migration figures.
Here is the statistical bulletin with the full details (pdf).
And here are some of the key points. (I’ve highlighted some points in bold.)
- In the year ending (YE) September 2015: Net long-term international migration = +323,000 (up 31,000 from YE September 2014)
- Immigration = 617,000 (up 2,000 from YE September 2014)
- Emigration = 294,000 (down 29,000 from YE September 2014)
- The latest increase in net migration was not statistically significant compared with YE September 2014. This net increase was the result of a decrease (not statistically significant) in emigration from 323,000 in YE September 2014 and immigration being at a similar level to the previous year.
- Net migration in YE September 2015 was 13,000 lower (not statistically significant) than the peak level of 336,000 published for YE June 2015.
- Net migration of EU citizens was estimated to be 172,000 (compared with 158,000 in YE September 2014; change not statistically significant). Non-EU net migration (191,000) was similar to the previous year (188,000).
- The estimate of immigration for EU citizens was 257,000, compared with 246,000 in YE September 2014. Whilst this was not statistically significant, there was a statistically significant increase in immigration of EU2 citizens to 55,000 in YE September 2015 (up 15,000). Conversely, immigration of non-EU citizens saw a decrease from 289,000 to 273,000 (not statistically significant).
- Latest employment statistics from the Labour Force Survey show estimated employment of EU nationals (excluding British) living in the UK was 2.0 million in October to December 2015, 215,000 higher than the same quarter last year. Non-EU nationals in employment increased by 38,000 to 1.2 million and the total number of British nationals in employment increased by 278,000 to 28.3 million. Therefore, nearly half of the growth in employment over the last year was accounted for by foreign nationals. (These growth figures represent the NET change in the number of people in employment, not the proportion of new jobs that have been filled by non-UK workers.)
- There were 38,878 asylum applications (including dependants) in 2015, an increase of 20% compared with the previous year (32,344). This is the fifth successive year in which asylum applications have risen, although the number of applications is low relative to the peak in 2002 (103,081).
- The largest number of applications for asylum, including dependants, came from nationals of Eritrea (3,756; +465), followed by Iran (3,694; +1,195), Pakistan (3,254; -722), Sudan (3,014; +1,399) and Syria (2,846; +493). There were an additional 1,194 Syrian nationals granted humanitarian protection under the Syrian Vulnerable Persons Resettlement Scheme.
- Grant rates vary between nationalities; for example, 86% of the total initial decisions made for those giving Syrian as their nationality were grants of asylum or another form of protection, compared with 20% for Pakistani nationals.
Net migration was 323k in the year ending Sept 15, Immigration = 617k and Emigration = 294k https://t.co/EH3m2GS0hp pic.twitter.com/e2lrCFhgQx
— ONS (@ONS) February 25, 2016
This is from my colleague Alan Travis.
Latest net migration figures to UK show dip down from 336,000 to 323,000 between second and third quarters of 2015 - ONS
— Alan Travis (@alantravis40) February 25, 2016
Net migration 323,000 in year to September 2015, ONS says
The Press Association has just snapped this.
Estimated net migration to the UK was 323,000 in the year to September 2015, figures published by the Office for National Statistics show.
The Daily Telegraph (which is celebrating its 50,000th edition) has a striking splash today.
50,000th issue of the Telegraph:
— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) February 24, 2016
Gove faces sack over EU legal row#tomorrowspaperstoday#bbcpapers #EUreferendum pic.twitter.com/E5aoHtZOhY
You can read the story here.
As you will see, the claim is not quite as robust as the headline suggests. The story is based on comments from one or two (it’s not entirely clear) “ministerial allies” of David Cameron saying they think having Michael Gove remain as justice secretary will be untenable. One told the paper:
It is untenable to have a Justice Secretary after the referendum who opposed the legal basis of the prime minister’s deal. It just won’t work.
The story does not say that Downing Street figures are tipping Gove for the sack, and this morning a Number 10 source has dismissed the story as “nonsense”.
Is Gove going to be sacked? https://t.co/0uBBl5QUVY pic.twitter.com/AMKgPiQAEO
— Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) February 25, 2016
But does that mean Gove will inevitably survive? In truth, no one can be entirely sure. Cameron has indicated that he does not intend to punish ministers who campaign for Brexit, and there has been talk of a “reconciliation reshuffle” after the referendum, but it is impossible to predict quite how much damage the next four months will inflict on relations at the top of the Conservative party. By June the picture may look very different.
My colleague Nicholas Watt has more on this in the Guardian today. Here’s his article.
And here’s an extract.
In a BBC interview the justice secretary questioned whether the prime minister’s EU reform package is legally binding when he said that the European court of justice will only ever uphold agreements embedded in EU treaties.
Allies of the prime minister said this represented a marked change of gear by Gove, who had initially kept a low profile when he explained his referendum decision in a 1,500-word statement on Saturday. “This is war,” one pro-No 10 Tory said, noting that Gove had acted the day after the prime minister had mocked Johnson by suggesting that he was acting out of a desire to boost his leadership chances.
The Office for National Statistics publishes its latest set of migration figures today. These are always contentious but, with the EU referendum campaign now underway (only 119 more days to go), they may be particularly controversial.
Iain Duncan Smith, the work and pensions secretary and one of the “gang of six” ministers who attend cabinet and who are backing Brexit, has told the Guardian he expects the figures to show an increase in immigration from eastern Europe. And he said David Cameron’s EU deal will not stop this.
I would lay even money that they follow the trend over the past two quarters showing an ever-increasing number of migrants from eastern Europe. So is this agreement negotiated in Brussels going to limit the numbers coming into the UK? My answer to that is no. The truth is, there is one clear way that we could be sure to deliver on that manifesto commitment – and that’s to regain control of our borders.
Here is the story in full.
And here is the full agenda for the day.
9.30am: Immigration figures are published.
9.30am: Cecilia Malmstrom, the EU trade commission, gives a speech on Britain, the EU and trade at an event chaired by Lord Mandelson.
9.45am: Kathryn Hudson, the parliamentary commissioner for standards, gives evidence to the Commons standards committee.
10.10am: Jeremy Corbyn and Andy Burnham, the shadow home secretary, launch the Labour campaign for police and crime commissioner elections in Birmingham.
12pm: The GMB holds a conference on Trident.
Around 12pm: MPs begin a debate on Europe.
Around lunchtime: David Cameron holds an EU Q&A.
I will cover the Cameron event in detail if I can get a live feed and, as usual, I will be covering other breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I will post a summary at lunchtime and another in the afternoon.
If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time. Alternatively you could post a question to me on Twitter.
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