The big picture
Conservative peer Sayeeda Warsi has quit the leave campaign, accusing her colleague and leading Brexiteer Michael Gove of spreading “complete lies about Turkey’s accession to the EU”.
But it was Nigel Farage and the unofficial leave side’s anti-immigration poster campaign – unveiled last week to a gasp of criticism – that pushed the former Tory party chairwoman to remain, she tells the Times:
That ‘breaking point’ poster really was – for me – the breaking point to say, I can’t go on supporting this.
Are we prepared to tell lies, to spread hate and xenophobia just to win a campaign? For me that’s a step too far.
But some leave campaigners expressed … let’s say bafflement at the announcement:
Been part of the leave campaign from start. I had no idea that @SayeedaWarsi was part of the leave campaign. News to all of us me thinks.
— Nadhim Zahawi (@nadhimzahawi) June 19, 2016
I helped set up @vote_leave and she has not been at a single meeting I have attended. "defects" just not accurate! https://t.co/hnaoXv9y5T
— Bernard Jenkin (@bernardjenkin) June 19, 2016
However, although it seems clear Warsi was never driving that Vote Leave battlebus, she had expressed pro-Brexit views before the defection came to light:
For those of us committed to @vote_leave this unholy alliance between small minded little islanders & optimistic hello worlders is a strain!
— Sayeeda Warsi (@SayeedaWarsi) June 7, 2016
And ITV News’ Chris Ship points out that Warsi made the case for leave at an event in August 2015:
. @chrisshipitv , it was a great event. The early days of the campaign when the moderates were making the case for #Brexit
— Sayeeda Warsi (@SayeedaWarsi) June 19, 2016
The news will no doubt be welcomed by David Cameron, who conceded in a one-on-one Question Time with David Dimbleby last night that a more positive case for remain still needed to be made:
I’ve got four days to go. I want to do better at getting this argument across.
To me, it comes down to a simple point about the economy, but also what sort of country do we want to be? I want to be a country that does want to work with others. What I’ve learned in six years is that there is no problem in the world that isn’t better addressed with your allies, your friends and your neighbours.
The themes – for those who follow the spirals of this campaign – were familiar:
- there is no “silver bullet” on immigration, and that figure of tens of thousands for net migration is an “ambition” and not, in the manifesto sense, a target.
- the prime minister isn’t a quitter and neither is Britain.
- Turkish accession to the EU is not an imminent challenge.
- Isis would really rather relish a Brexit.
-
George Osborne’s emergency/punishment (delete according to personal view) budget would be a painful necessity.
Check out Andrew Sparrow’s summary of Cameron’s interview here, and the verdict of a panel of Guardian columnists here.
Cameron, of course, also spoke about the killing of Jo Cox, in whose memory MPs will return to parliament today for a special session. He told the BBC:
I think the most important thing for the politicians is to remember what [Cox] was all about, which was service, community, tolerance. These are values we should all try to live by and promote, in order to remember her.
I don’t think we know why exactly this happened or what the motivation was and we have to wait for the police investigation before we do that.
But I think what we do know is wherever we see intolerance, hatred, division, we should try and drive it out of our communities, out of our public life.
Speeches in the Commons will begin at 2.30pm and will, of course, be covered in this live blog.
It has emerged that Cox was working on a report about attacks on Muslims before her death. A memorial fund for charities she supported has now surpassed £800,000.
Thomas Mair, the man accused of murdering Cox, appears in court again today.
You should also know:
- Ten of the world’s leading economists have issued a warning about the consequences of the UK leaving the EU. In a letter to the Guardian, they say “the economic arguments are clearly in favour of remaining in the EU”.
- UK car industry bosses back remain – and so does Premier League chairman Richard Scudamore.
- Channel 4 News was barred from a Vote Leave rally because it was “oversubscribed”. Read John Crace’s sketch instead.
- Richard Branson has started his own campaign to keep Britain in the EU.
- And in case you missed it: how the Sunday newspapers think their readers ought to vote.
Poll position
The weekend polls – some of which were carried out after Jo Cox was killed – have shown a gentle swing back towards remain. We can’t know why that is. So I’ll just deal with the numbers here:
- A Sunday Times/YouGov poll had remain on 44% and leave on 43%.
- An Opinium/Observer poll put both campaigns on 44%.
- A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday had remain ahead, by 45% to 42%.
- A UK-wide BMG poll for the Herald showed a bigger gap, with remain up to 53.3% and leave on 46.7%.
- A Comres poll for the Independent didn’t ask those surveyed how they would vote – but 44% said they would be “delighted” if the UK voted to leave the EU, with only 28% saying they’d celebrate a vote to stay with the same fervour.
The FT poll of polls now pegs remain and leave on 44% apiece.
And as for the rest of the EU? As my colleague Philip Oltermann reports, most would like the UK to remain – but only just:
The survey of 10,992 European citizens, carried out by Germany’s Bertelsmann Foundation, shows that while a majority of continental Europeans across all age groups are in favour of Britain remaining a member of the EU, the support is not overwhelmingly high, at 54%.
The (hardline right-wing, anti-immigration) prime minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, is certainly more than lukewarm on Britain’s UK membership, if this full-page ad in today’s Daily Mail is anything to go by:
Hungary takes out a full page advert in the Daily Mail.
— Ben Judah (@b_judah) June 19, 2016
Will France, Germany and the rest follow? pic.twitter.com/LOx0c2Lmk7
Diary
- The Ukip leave battle-bus heads to Manchester.
- Tributes to Jo Cox begin in parliament at 2.30pm, followed by a memorial service at St Margaret’s church.
- At 6pm Jeremy Corbyn follows in the footsteps of Cameron and Gove with a Sky News interview and audience Q&A.
- At 7pm the Guardian hosts its own referendum debate: Tim Farron, Andy Burnham and Caroline Lucas for remain face Chris Grayling, Daniel Hannan and John Mann for leave. Guardian political editor Anushka Asthana chairs.
- At 7.30pm Nigel Farage attends a Ukip rally in Gateshead.
Read these
In what is probably a first, the Telegraph thinks the Labour leader is “absolutely right” on something:
Jeremy Corbyn has faults almost too numerous to count, but, in one regard at least, dishonesty is not among them. Interviewed about Britain’s place in the European Union and the immigration that stems from it, Mr Corbyn was asked about the limit on European immigration that some of his party colleagues have recently suggested. ‘I don’t think you can have one while you have the free movement of labour,’ he replied. He was absolutely right.
Parvathi Menon in the Hindu wonders what Brexit will mean for India – and for Indian people living in the UK:
India remains deeply vested in the outcome of the referendum for two reasons. The first concerns the welfare of a nearly three-million strong diaspora of Indian-origin UK citizens, while the second concerns the interests of a large moving population of Indians who come to Britain ever year as tourists, business people, professionals, students, spouses, parents and relatives.
Will Brexit change the rules of doing business, or of access to higher education? Further, will it create new barriers for work visas or the visitation rights of relatives who have families here?
Steven Erlanger in the New York Times says EU countries are “preparing to retaliate” in the event of a vote to leave:
If Britons do vote in a referendum on Thursday to leave the European Union, they can expect a tough and unforgiving response, with capitals across the Continent intent on deterring other countries from following the British example, European officials and analysts said. In other words, Britain will be made to suffer for its choice …
Suggestions by British politicians favoring a departure that the rest of the European Union will give Britain more favorable terms in a new trading arrangement will be rejected out of hand by European leaders, who do not want to make further concessions to a country that has rejected them, officials said. This would ensure that the British example discouraged others tempted to seek a special deal for themselves.
The day in a tweet
Jo loved camping. Last night the kids & I camped in her memory& remembered the last time we were all woken by the dawn chorus #MoreInCommon
— Brendan Cox (@MrBrendanCox) June 19, 2016
And another thing
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