The big picture
So much for letting the sunshine in as we edge towards the final week of campaigning. Wednesday’s dial is set firmly to doom as chancellor George Osborne says Brexit could rip open a £30bn hole in the UK’s public finances. At an event this morning Osborne will appear alongside remain pal Alistair Darling to ramp up warnings that the Treasury would be forced to fill the gap though higher income tax, alcohol and petrol duties; and by slashing funding to the NHS, schools and defence:
Far from freeing up money to spend on public services as the leave campaign would like you to believe, quitting the EU would mean less money. Billions less. It’s a lose-lose situation for British families and we shouldn’t risk it.
Osborne will say this could mean a 2p rise in the basic rate of income tax to 22%, a 3p rise in the higher rate to 43%, and a 5% rise in inheritance tax to 45p.
Some leave supporters reacted angrily, with Conservative backbencher Liam Fox denouncing what he described as a “punishment budget”:
It would damage the chancellor’s credibility and would be putting his own position in jeopardy.
I think the British public would react adversely to such a threat based on the chancellor being afraid they will vote the wrong way in his opinion.
Some commentators weren’t too concerned:
Osborne threatening emergency tax rises and cuts post-Brexit. How would he do that from the backbenches?
— Iain Martin (@iainmartin1) June 14, 2016
The official Vote Leave campaign pointed out that Osborne’s doomsday plan would necessitate him breaking seven pledges from last year’s election manifesto.
But Darling will say that others outside the UK are already recognising the potential risks:
For the first time ever, we saw German government bonds offering a negative yield – in other words, investors are paying Germany to look after their money as they seek safe havens.
As this Guardian report spells out:
The impact on shares in London and across the continent was dramatic as stock markets tumbled and one analyst declared that “the stench of Brexit was stalking the streets of the City”. The pound also tumbled 1.2% to below $1.41, its lowest for two months.
Against that, Vote Leave (still insisting it isn’t an alternative government?) offers its blueprint for a post-23 June future:
- limit the powers of the European courts.
- switch money saved from EU contributions to the NHS.
- end automatic right for EU citizens to come to the UK.
- begin efforts to secure a trade deal with Europe by 2020.
On the campaign’s other main theme, immigration, there are signs of a change of heart/panic (delete as appropriate) among remainers, with reports that Downing Street is considering a last-ditch pledge to reconsider the free movement of workers within the EU.
Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, yesterday joined Ed Balls in saying more limits on migration would be on the table even if remain wins through next week.
And in the midst of all this, Nigel Farage will come sailing up the Thames at the head of his pro-Brexit flotilla. I’ll leave you to check the weather forecast and your personal preferences to determine whether this one is filed under sunshine or gloom.
You should also know:
- Leavers Boris Johnson and Priti Patel were the winners of last night’s Telegraph/YouTube debate, says the Telegraph.
- Brexit is a “huge negative” for Japanese companies in the UK.
- Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull says the possibility of Brexit is creating “uncertainty in global markets”.
- England players have been discussing Brexit around the Euro 2016 dinner table.
- And the Leave.EU BPoplive concert is tragically cancelled.
Poll position
The FT poll of polls today pegs leave on 47% and remain on 44%.
A TNS poll yesterday followed recent trends by finding leave ahead, this time by 47% to 40%. And a new BMG online poll has the gap at 45%-41% in favour of leave.
EU referendum poll:
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) June 15, 2016
Remain: 41% (-3)
Leave: 45% (-)
(via BMG, online)
Diary
- At 11am George Osborne and his No 11 predecessor Alistair Darling appear together to deliver that budget warning.
- From 11am to 2.30pm, Nigel Farage and co take their flotilla of protest along the Thames.
- At noon it’s the last PMQs before the referendum.
- This evening at 6.45pm Michael Gove is on the BBC in Nottingham for a Question Time EU referendum special with David Dimbleby.
Read these
In the Economist, Bagehot says remainers should not give up hope just yet:
In such moments – when faced by a choice between an imperfect status quo and a leap into the dark – Britons have, in the past, rarely chosen the latter. To defy that tradition, Leave has to disguise a vote to quit the EU as the safer, more small-c conservative option. Yet here too, the polling (judging by YouGov’s tracker) suggests that the campaign has failed.
For all its bogus claims that Turkey will soon join the EU, I have yet to see proof that it has persuaded voters that the dangers of continuing in the club are greater. That most voters rightly consider the choice before them on June 23rd more significant than that at a general election suggests that they will be particularly risk-averse next week.
Dutch daily newspaper Algemeen Dagblad has issued a plea to British voters: please stay.
Nobody in Europe appreciates your culture more than we do. The Beatles, Bridget Jones, One Direction, EastEnders, Brideshead Revisited, we love it all. Many of us know Monty Python’s Dead Parrot sketch by heart.
We admire your stiff upper lip. And every year we remember, with the greatest respect, all those who have fallen to liberate our country.
Now you are thinking of leaving us. Sailing out your floating country towards distant shores, so says your largest newspaper, the Sun. Talking as a Dutch uncle, we have to tell you this is not a good idea.
We not only love you, we need you. Who else supports us in keeping some common sense on this turbulent continent of ours? An EU without the UK would be like tea without milk. Bitter. So please, stay. Stay with us.
Baffling claim of the day
The Sun front page, refusing to let up after its endorsement of leave yesterday, now warns of “nasty Euro moths” – a “massive swarm of super-moths from Europe”. The paper urges readers:
Vote Leave to protect our country … and our cabbages from nasty crop-ravaging Euro moths set to hit the UK.
Brexit would definitely stop the diamondback moths – as they’re technically known – coming over here and taking our cabbages, because the British Isles would be towed further away from the mainland continent. Also the moths would not have passports.
Celebrity endorsement of the day
I don't want to leave a union that has brought more peace and stability to the region than it has ever known #Remain https://t.co/lsPqxUKe7k
— J.K. Rowling (@jk_rowling) June 14, 2016
The day in a tweet
2. There's warning the country of post-Brexit consequences & then there's suggesting you're not good enough a chancellor to mitigate them
— Tim Stanley (@timothy_stanley) June 14, 2016
If today were a novel ...
It would be Three Men in a Boat, a comic tale of a Thames-based escapade, with plenty of pubs along the way. Plus, as the Observer’s list of 100 best novels put it, “an unconscious elegy for imperial Britain”.
And another thing
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