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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
Politics
Andrew Sparrow and Claire Phipps

EU referendum live: Khan accuses Boris Johnson of leading 'Project Hate' in BBC's Great Debate

Sadiq Khan (right) confronts Boris Johnson during the BBC’s EU Referendum ‘Great Debate’, with Ruth Davidson watching.
Sadiq Khan (right) confronts Boris Johnson during the BBC’s EU Referendum ‘Great Debate’, with Ruth Davidson watching.
 Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Summary

  • A snap YouGov poll for the Times has leave winning, with 39% of respondents who watched saying leave did best, and 34% saying remain did best. But the same respondents said they were marginally more likely to vote remain than leave. (See 11.21pm.)

That’s all from me for tonight.

Thanks for the comments.

Updated

This is what Labour are saying about tonight’s debate. Here is an extract from the briefing the party has sent out.

Remain clearly won the debate tonight, making the case for why Britain is better off in. Better off in for jobs, rights at work, lower prices and our NHS.

Sadiq Khan made the positive Labour case for remaining in the EU. It brings us jobs, growth and investment, protects British workers and consumers and helps keep us safe. Leaving would put that at risk and diminish Britain’s influence in the world.

In contrast, the leave campaign had no answers on the big issues facing the country.

Updated

Even Labour’s Tom Watson is praising Ruth Davidson.

Leave won the debate, YouGov poll finds

YouGov has been polling people who watched the debate for the Times. Here are the results.

YouGov found that leave won the debate - although the same respondents are more likely to vote remain (marginally).

It also found that Boris Johnson was judged to have done best, followed by Ruth Davidson. (Commentators are praising Davidson more highly, but that is because she came into to the debate as something of an unknown quantity to many journalists, whereas we all know that Johnson can perform well on a stage like this.)

Worryingly for remain, YouGov also found the don’t knows breaking for leave.

Updated

BBC EU Referendum Great Debate - Verdict from the Twitter commentariat

This is what political journalists and commentators are saying about the debate on Twitter.

No one seems to think either side “won” decisively, but Ruth Davidson and (to a lesser extent) Sadiq Khan have done a lot for their own personal rankings in the political league tables.

From the New Statesman’s George Eaton

From the Guardian’s Patrick Wintour

From the Spectator’s James Forsyth

From the Independent’s John Rentoul

From the Sunday Times’s James Lyons

From ITV’s Robert Peston

From the Sunday Times’s David Smith

From the Times’s Patrick Kidd

From the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn

From the Economist’s Jeremy Cliffe

From Huffington Post’s Paul Waugh

From the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges

From ITV’s Alastair Stewart

From Channel 4 News’s Krishnan Guru-Murthy

From the Daily Mail’s Quentin Letts

From the Sunday Times’s Tim Shipman

From the BBC’s Andrew Neil

From the BBC’s Philip Sim

From Sky’s Beth Rigby

From LBC’s Iain Dale

Lord Sugar, the former Labour peer and newly appointed government enterprise tsar, is getting criticised for posting this on Twitter.

Updated

This is from the Mail’s Matt Dathan.

And this is from the Sun’s Steve Hawkes.

According to the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn, the spin room got lively.

Updated

And here is the Vote Leave chief executive, Matthew Elliott, on the debate.

The in campaign had nothing positive to contribute tonight – just like they’ve failed to make a positive contribution during the whole campaign. They’ve lost the economic argument, they don’t want to spend the £350m we send to Brussels every week on our priorities, and can’t explain how we can ever control immigration from inside the EU. They couldn’t even be honest about how many laws in this country come from Brussels. The public will have a choice on Thursday: they can choose project fear and vote in or they can chose project hope and take back control of their money and their borders. A Vote to Leave on Thursday is a vote for democracy.

(So Vote Leave have not entirely give up on the £350m. See 10.10pm.)

Updated

Here is the Britain Stronger in Europe take on tonight’s debate. This is from the briefing they have sent to journalists.

Tonight the leave campaign blew their last chance to show they have a plan for Britain’s future:

· The leave campaign have no plan for the future of our economy, because they couldn’t guarantee jobs, said it would take “ten years” to do a new trade deal with the EU, and couldn’t name a single country who would do a trade deal with the UK outside the EU.

· The leave campaign have no plan for the future of immigration, because they were unable to say they would reduce numbers.

· The leave campaign have no plan for our national security, as Ruth Davidson demolished their case by outlining the experts who back remain and leave campaigners failed to name a country who backed their stance.

Updated

BBC's EU Referendum 'Great Debate' - Snap verdict

The only really reliable way to assess who has “won” a debate is to find a representative panel and poll them, but even then people are likely to side with the politicians they supported before it started, and so really you need to find a panel of neutrals. And if a panel of neutrals had watched that? Most likely, they would have ended up as confused as ever.

What was striking, though, was how leave has managed to get to the end of the campaign, with expert economic opinion almost unanimous in saying Brexit would harm the economy and no one having the first idea what post-Brexit trading relationships would look like, and this not being a fatal handicap in a debate of this kind. The format helped tonight, because the participants were not subjected to forensic questioning, but somehow leave have managed to brush aside all the doubts with breezy optimism. It is not a feat that many people could pull off, but Boris Johnson manages it and for him tonight must rank as a success. Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom were fine too. I found the endless mother/grandmother references a bit much, but I suspect for many viewers they were mildly reassuring.

Remain were underpowered on the economy, and struggling on immigration, but if debates of this kind are judged by how people see them on the TV news - and for most people that is how they are judged - then they have probably done better than my early snap summaries imply. Sadiq Khan and Ruth Davidson are veterans of mayoral/Scottish debates, but have never been tested on a prime ministerial platform of this kind, and they both acquitted themselves well. Good speakers use lists to make rhetorical points, and Khan and Davidson came pre-prepared with powerful zingers. It was uncanny to hear Khan sound just like David Cameron at one point, but Cameron is generally an effective communicator and Khan is not precious about lifting a good line. Khan and Davidson also challenged Johnson robustly, although it was noticeable that neither of them tried accusing him of opportunism (perhaps a recognition that the Amber Rudd/Angela Eagle/Nicola Sturgeon attacks like this in the ITV debate failed). Frances O’Grady was less flamboyant, but no less impressive, and tonight she may have done more to improve the reputation of trade unionists than anyone has done for years.

One final point: did you notice that there was almost no mention of the £350m that Vote Leave claim we send to the EU every week? That figure has been widely denounced as untrue, but for weeks Vote Leave defended it. Perhaps it has finally become discredited? Or perhaps it has been grounded because its task is done?

Updated

Dimbleby ends by saying he hopes this has clarified some of the issues.

The debate is now effectively over. The last 15 minutes are devoted to what is being said from the spin room.

(I can save you the bother of watching. Remain supporters think their side did best, and Leave say the same about their team.)

We are now on to the closing questions.

Ruth Davidson says we cannot be confident that leave have all the answers that we need. And you need to be 100% confident to vote leave. The Britain she loves does not walk away from other countries. She, Sadiq and Frances all agree we are better off in. Vote remain, she says.

Boris Johnson says there is a very clear choice between those on the other side, who offer fear, and leave, who offer hope. The other side run the country down. We believe in Britain, he says. He says remain say we must bow down to Brussels. He says leave believe they can take control. If we stand up for democracy, we will be speaking up for hundreds of people around Europe who have no voice. If we vote leave, this Thursday can be our country’s independence day.

Updated

Britain's place in the world questions - Snap verdict

Remain were more impressive. As a debate, this whole show has been chaotic, but the best performers have used it to unleash forceful, punchy soundbites at the appropriate moments and in this section we had clips from Khan (on 7/7, and how the London mayor has to cooperate with Europe) and from Davidson (on why she listens to security experts and on what made her join the TA) that easily deserve to be included in any round-up of the highlights of the debate.

Updated

Sadiq Khan challenges Leave to name a single ally that thinks we should leave the EU.

Gisela Stuart says EU allies are not paying their contribution to Nato.

Well stay and fight, Khan replies (or rather shouts). We’re not quitters, he says (echoing David Cameron.)

Ruth Davidson says she was sent to the Balkans as a reporter. She was never more proud of being British. It encouraged her to join up and serve. (She was in the Territorial Army.) While she has respect for Lord Guthrie, all the serving military chiefs say we are safer in the EU, she says.

Andrea Leadsom says let’s get back to the EU five presidents report.

That’s not what the questioner asked, says Davidson.

Leadsom says the five presidents want an EU army.

Frances O’Grady says many trade unionists have supported the peace process in Northern Ireland. The Irish prime minister has said there will have to be border controls if the UK leaves the EU.

Boris Johnson says the EU is going in the wrong direction. He remembers what happened when the EU tried to sort out what was happening in the Balkans. It was a disaster, he says. About a million people died. The situation was only improved when the US took charge.

The European court of justice is saying that we cannot deport the people we want to, he says.

Updated

Question from a remain supporter: Is it a coincidence that the EU has combined with the longest period of peace in Europe?

Gisela Stuart says a former Interpol head says the EU is not making us safe.

Ruth Davidson says it is not a coincidence. She says the other side do not like experts, but she thinks that when it comes to security, we should listen to experts. She lists some of them, and says she will listen to them, and vote for them every day, and twice on a Sunday.

Andrea Leadsom quotes experts saying EU security rests on Nato. Lord Guthrie said it was not the EU that kept Europe safe, but the leadership of the US.

Updated

Khan says he chooses to work with Europe on a number of issues, and he has to keep London safe. On 7/7 the city was attacked. He says one of the bombers fled abroad, but the European arrest warrant allowed him to be returned.

Updated

Question five: United States of Europe

We are now onto the section about Britain’s place in the world.

Question from a leave supporter: Forty years ago we voted for the Common Market. If we vote to remain, how do we know we won’t end up in a United states of Europe.

Boris Johnson says the European court of justice is the supreme legal authority in this country. It even affects divorce laws.

Q: Will a United States of Europe happen?

Johnson says John Major said a single currency had all the force of a rain dance, but it happened.

Ruth Davidson says Leadsom said 60% of our laws are made in Europe. That is not true, she says.

She says the other side have constantly lied about Europe. It is not good enough, she says. You deserve the truth.

Gisela Stuart says that if the prime minister will not veto Turkey joining the EU, what will he veto?

She says the EU is holding back a number of measures until after the referendum, like a Europe-wide tax number.

Updated

Immigration questions: snap verdict

This is a complex question and it deserves a proper debate, and we are not having it tonight, said Ruth Davidson. Too right.

What we did get was a sort of shoutfest, and leave probably had the best of it. Boris Johnson, who is projecting authority tonight and doing well, made a mark when he invited Frances O’Grady to “come over” and later said the remain panel agreed with him about the need for further controls. Leave generally win on immigration because remain are reluctant to defend uncontrolled immigration, but cannot credibly explain how they will control it. That said, remain tried two defensive ploys. Attacking leave over extremism did not seem to hit home effectively, although leave never answered the question about the BNP donation properly, but their charge that leave’s stance is a con because they will not commit to cutting immigration did carry force.

The debate has got livelier, with Khan’s “Project Hate” line likely to make the headlines, although it is still less personalised than the ITV one.

But it has not got more illuminating. The exchanges bear so little relation to the questions that one wonders why Dimbleby bothers to ask them.

Updated

Leadsom says the only way we will ever get immigration under control is by voting leave.

Updated

Davidson says immigration is a complex problem. It deserves a grownup argument. We are not having that tonight, she says.

Updated

Davidson says immigration does need to be controlled. It used to be the case that you could come and claim from day one, but that has changed, she says.

She says you do not fund schools and hospitals by crashing the economy.

Stuart says if we vote leave and take back control, we will have a £10bn dividend to spend. She says every family knows the pressure on doctors.

Khan says immigration is a concern, but leaving the EU is not the answer.

It is, says Leadsom.

Khan asks how we will have more control if we are poorer. How will we have more control if businesses go elsewhere. How will we have more control if young people do not have the chances we do.

Johnson says there is a lot of agreement here tonight. He says the other side say we need to control immigration. Jeremy Corbyn says we cannot control immigration if we are in the EU. The only way to take back control is to leave.

O’Grady says it is bit rich of Johnson to go on about low wages when his government has frozen public sector pay. She says Johnson is not promising to cut numbers. It is a con.

Rubbish, says Johnson.

Q: Have you promised to reduce numbers?

Stuart says a points system would allow the government to take back control.

Khan says we need a plan, not a slogan.

So you are not promising, says O’Grady. It’s a con.

Updated

Question four: public services

Question from a leave supporter: As a young working class man I feel at the back of the queue for housing and public services. How many immigrants can we cope with?

O’Grady says we need to manage immigration better.

Come over, says Johnson.

O’Grady says politicians should handle these matters better. They can legislate on wages. She gets fed up with migrants being blamed. The problem was greedy banker crashing the economy, she says.

Stuart says uncontrolled immigration allows firms to get away with not investing in training.

Updated

Khan says he wants to deal with this big fat lie once and for all. Turkey is not about to join, and until two months ago Johnson knew that. Turkey has only completed one accession chapter. At this rate it will not join until the year 3000.

Johnson says he is a Turk.

Updated

Ruth Davidson says it is tempting to think there is one single silver bullet.

There is, says Johnson. It’s take back control.

Davidson says the points-based system would lead to more immigration.

Johnson says he wants to respond to the unnecessary invective on the other side. He quotes someone saying politicians were too quick in the past to dismiss concerns about immigration. It was Khan, he says.

Khan says there are legitimate concerns that need to be addressed, but Johnson is scaring people. He says Vote Leave are saying Turkey is set to join. He holds up a Vote Leave leaflet naming Syria and Iraq, implying they might join. That is scaremongering.

Stuart says she would like to know who the real David Cameron is. He says Turkey will not join until the year 3000, but the government is prompting Turkish accession.

Davidson says Turkish accession is not going to happen. It is not on the cards. That is what Boris said two months ago. What has changed?

It is government policy, he says.

Updated

Question three: the NHS

We are now onto immigration.

Question from a remain supporter: How will the NHS cope if we leave the EU?

Boris Johnson says he wants to celebrate the role played by immigrants, but we need to take back control.

Sadiq Khan says he wants to take the unusual step of praising the deal Cameron achieved. He accuses Johnson of running not Project Fear, but Project Hate.

Frances O’Grady says today we learnt Vote Leave took a £600,000 donation from a former BNP member. Will they pay it back?

Andrea Leadsom says that is “unworthy of this debate”. There are millions of people with concerns about immigration who want to vote leave. As a mum, she has concerns about security.

Updated

Economy questions: snap verdict

Was this really such a good idea? After half an hour, it feels as if this debate will only have confused people. Because it has not been so much of a debate as a soundbite-spouting contest. There were relatively few moments where the participants seemed to engage with what their opponents were saying.

As a result, it did not feel as if either side won, but that in itself is a good result for leave - because if remain cannot hammer them on this, then they are going to struggle to make headway on anything. That said, Frances O’Grady was impressive, because her expertise shone through. Gisela Stuart, however, made perhaps one of the best points so far when she said Britain did not need Brussels to legislate for women’s rights. Ruth Davidson and Sadiq Khan were the most combative, although perhaps one of the biggest contrasts with the ITV debate is remain’s reluctance to personalise their attacks on Johnson.

Updated

Khan says the eurozone is growing faster than the US, and that our economy is enhanced by being in the EU.

Johnson says it beggars belief that remain are unable to think of a single directive they would get rid of. The EU is a job-destroying machine. Just tonight Tate & Lyle said they wanted to leave. He says we cannot protect Tata jobs because Brussels says no.

Davidson says leave are just asking people to trust them. They unable to say how many jobs will go, or what the trade arrangements will be. Obama said we would go to the back of the queue on trade.

Leadsom says 80% of the world’s economy is not in the single market. She says 28 member states cannot even organise a take-away curry, let alone trade deals.

Khan says when you are 5ft 6 you don’t often say size matters, but it does with trade deals. If we left the EU, we would suffer. He says Johnson should know better. London businesses rely on the EU. Boris, why have you suddenly changed your mind?

Johnson says we have heard an amazing amount of running down. Remain underestimate our ability to do better deals if we are on our own. He says our entire trade policy is determined by the EU, where only 3.8% of officials are British.

Davidson tries to interrupt. He won’t let her. Because of the EU, we cannot export haggis to the US, he says.

Davidson challenges him to name one country in the world that has said it will offer a better trade deal.

Updated

Question two: workers' rights

We are now taking the second question on the economy.

Question from a remain supporter: As a black woman, I am grateful for the employment protections the EU offers. Will leaving be a slippery slope to lower standards?

Leadsom says the UK has led the way in guaranteeing rights. We do not need EU leaders we cannot name to guarantee rights.

O’Grady says too often we hear the words red tape, and what that means is getting rid of rights. Those rights were not gifted to us. People fought for them, and the EU guarantees them. People need to understand that they cover things such as the right to take time off if a child is ill. She says 2 million people got paid holidays as a result of an EU directive. Can leave guarantee that these rights will be protected?

Yes, says Johnson.

Stuart says she has been a trade unionist for 45 years. She finds the argument that we need Brussels to protect rights extraordinary.

Khan says Stuart is wrong. Every time he and Stuart have voted for workers’s rights, they - leave Tories have voted the other way. He says Priti Patel, the pro-Brexit employment minister, has said she would like to halve workers’ regulations.

Stuart says the most important right is the right to a job. We will never succeed when shackled to the eurozone.

Updated

Khan says all the experts say the economy would suffer if we leave. It is not unreasonable for a mum and dad worried about bills to ask what the plan is. A slogan is not a detailed plan. How would you make sure jobs won’t suffer, he asks. What is your plan?

Leadsom says we are spending billions that go into a big black hole. All remain talk about is Project Fear. The EU has done a terrible job negotiating free trade deals.

Updated

Leadsom says Unite’s Len McCluskey said the EU single market had been a giant, low wage experiment.

Davidson says we have the highest level of employment in history. And, if you want to trade quotes, Johnson’s chief economist says manufacturing will be hit. Michael Gove says he could not guarantee everyone would keep their jobs. That is not good enough.

Johnson says they are back to Project Fear.

How many jobs, Davidson shouts at him. Wanting to protect jobs is positive, she says.

Johnson says someone on the other side said immigration had driven down wages in too many places. It was Khan, he says. Johnson says he is a believer in free markets, but thinks differentials in wages have fallen too low. It would be a fine thing if people got a pay rise because we took back control.

Updated

Frances O’Grady says the questioner asked about small firms, but many are in supply chains. The experts say business would suffer. If you do not believe the experts, listen to the shop floor. They say we cannot afford to take this gamble.

Gisela Stuart says the questioner cannot afford to lobby Brussels. That is why big firms like Brussels. Stuart Rose, the head of the remain campaign, said wages will go up if we leave.

O’Grady says workers in this country have been through a rough time. The TUC has looked at all the hard evidence. In the long run, because our economy would be hit, wages would drop by £38 a week. That is filling up your petrol tank in a small car. It’s a big hit. Don’t take the risk.

Updated

Sadiq Khan says he is pleased Johnson is speaking to people, but that he should listen to Patrick Minford, leave’s economic adviser. He said leaving would mean the end of manufacturing. That scares me, he says.

Andrea Leadsom says if we remain, the failed euro project will cost us dearly. And the EU wants to expand to include Turkey.

Updated

Question one: the economy

Question from a leave supporter: I run a small business and have been stifled by the amount of legislation imposed on me. What benefits are there from remaining in the EU?

Ruth Davidson says small businesses are the backbone of the economy. Business leaders want us to stay in, she says, and if you want to trade with the EU you need to obey their rules. Vote to remain in the biggest trade deal in the world.

Boris Johnson says he thinks it is extraordinary to claim we would have tariffs imposed on us if we leave. We receive around a fifth of German exports. Would they impose tariffs on us? He says he has visited many businesses, and been amazed how many want to come out. Businesses such as JCB, and James Dyson, the biggest manufacturer of vacuum cleaners in Germany. Tonight he is saying that staying in would be an act of economic self-harm.

Updated

This is from the Telegraph’s Asa Bennett.

Dimbleby says there will be questions on the economy, immigration and Britain’s place in the world.

Before we go to that, they will try to present the issues at stake.

They are now showing a video about the economy.

Sadiq Khan opens for remain. He says in just two days voters will make the most important decision for a generation. He namechecks his team, and says they will make a positive case for remain. Your job will be more secure if we stay, and prices in the shops will be lower. As a lawyer he has learnt to follow the evidence. All the evidence suggests we are better off in, so he would urge you to make the positive and patriotic case to vote remain.

Updated

Dimbleby says leave won - when they drew lots to decide who goes first.

Gisela Stuart opens for leave. If we were not in, would we join. If you think not, then vote leave to take control. She is a mother and a grandmother. 50% of young people in Greece do not have a job. The only continent with a lower growth rate is Antarctica. Sometimes voting does not make much difference, but on Thursday it will.

Updated

Dimbley introduces the panel.

They will get to make opening statements.

BBC's EU referendum Great Debate starts

David Dimbleby opens the programme.

It sounds echoey, the hall is so big. Normally there are only 150 people in a Question Time audience.

Updated

This is from the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope.

Ukip’s Suzanne Evans is already suggesting it’s a fix.

Suspicion of this nature is a well-documented Leave trait. See 3.51pm.

This is from the New Statesman’s Stephen Bush.

ITV’s Robert Peston has some news for Boris.

Sadiq Khan arrives at Wembley Arena for tonight’s The Great Debate.
Sadiq Khan arrives for the Great Debate. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Updated

Here’s the scene in the spin room.

Mishal Husain is moderating the side panel. She posted this picture on Twitter a moment ago.

This is from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg.

The BBC’s Adam Fleming posted this earlier.

And these tweets more recently.

This is from Newsweek’s Josh Lowe.

The debate will focus on the six main participants, and they will take questions on six main topics.

After they have debated each topic, the BBC will also feature additional commentary from a second panel. The corporation describes the process in more detail here:

There will be additional opinion and commentary on the issues from a second stage of further 10 guests made up of five representatives from each side, moderated by Mishal Husain. For remain, these will be SNP’s Humza Yousaf MSP, Conservative MP Sarah Wollaston, Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron, Green Party MP Caroline Lucas, and Justin King, former CEO of Sainsbury’s. Representing leave on the second stage will be Conservative Minister Priti Patel MP, UKIP’s Diane James MEP, Harsimrat Kaur from Women for Britain, Tim Martin, founder and chairman of Wetherspoons, and journalist and author Tony Parsons.

Updated

Tonight’s debate could be a defining moment for Ruth Davidson. It is fraught with risks and rewards She could secure her future chances of a Westminster career and a cabinet post after single-handedly resurrecting the Tories as a major force in Scottish politics, or wreck them.

Davidson partly owes her position to Cameron’s patronage. She is fighting his corner tonight, against one of his most potent challengers as Tory leader, Boris Johnson – the man who might be her next boss.

So she must talk for her new Scottish voters, many of whom dislike Johnson’s brand of English Eton Toryism, keep a careful eye on the English Tories who adore him and display the Ruth that Scottish voters admire - sharp-witted, combative and blunt.

Davidson denied it was true of course, but Johnson will be smarting after the Telegraph and Dundee Courier ran extremely well sourced stories on Tuesday reporting that she planned a wholly independent breakaway party in Scotland if he became the next leader.

Albeit by implication, she also described Johnson as a “brazen chauvinist” in a Daily Mail article this week, which likened the former London mayor unfavourably to Alex Salmond.

She wrote: “In the puffed-up protests of Mr Farage and Boris Johnson, in their complaints about ‘Project Fear’, and in the blithe assertions that ‘everything will be fine, don’t your worry your pretty little head’, I recognise the brazen chauvinistic style of Mr Salmond – this time repeated for a UK audience.”

Ruth Davidson arrives at Wembley Arena for tonight’s The Great Debate.
Ruth Davidson arrives for the Great Debate. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Updated

There are 6,000 people in the audience at Wembley. They are supposed to be split 50/50 between leave and remain. A third of the tickets were allocated to Vote Leave, a third to Britain Stronger in Europe and a third were available to people who applied, and who had to declare their allegiance.

David Dimbleby is presenting. Here’s the set.

The podiums are prepared ahead of the EU debate at Wembley Arena.
The podiums are prepared ahead of the EU debate at Wembley arena. Photograph: Handout/Getty Images
David Dimbleby at the SSE Arena Wembley ahead of The Great Debate.
David Dimbleby at the arena ahead of the Great Debate. Photograph: Jeff Overs/BBC/PA

Updated

BBC's EU referendum: the Great Debate

The BBC’s Great Debate programme will start at 8pm. It is being filmed at the SSE Arena in Wembley, and it will be the biggest debate of the campaign.

There are three main speakers on each side and leave are fielding the same team they deployed for the ITV debate: Boris Johnson, the energy minister Andrea Leadsom and the Labour MP Gisela Stuart.

Remain are putting up three new figures: Sadiq Khan, the new Labour mayor of London, Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader and Frances O’Grady, the TUC’s general secretary.

A colleague who has spent a lot of time outside London reporting on the referendum told me recently he thought the contest amounted to “cities, Scotland and lefties” versus the rest. The remain panel does reflect that to a certain extent.

Updated

Afternoon summary

  • Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary, has said an EU army is a “bonkers idea” that the UK would veto.

But we’re not finished. We’re going to keep going to cover the BBC debate later.

As expected (see 2pm), the Conservative MP Bernard Jenkin has complained about David Cameron using Downing Street to make a pro-Remain statement. Jenkin told the Press Association:

It’s certainly a breach of the spirit of purdah. Ministers aren’t meant to use public funds or public resources during the purdah period. It can be argued it doesn’t apply to his own residence but I would have thought use of Downing Street facilities is a breach of the spirit of purdah. He would not do that during a general election.

Bernard Jenkin.
Bernard Jenkin. Photograph: Richard Gardner/REX Shutterstock

This is from the BBC’s Iain Watson.

Gordon Brown has been speaking in Glasgow, offering “a message from the heart” to undecided voters. Remainers will doubtless be hoping this has a similar effect to his barn-storming performance in September 2014, the day before the Scottish independence referendum, which has since been credited with significantly shifting voting intentions.

Offering a bespoke Labour message, he told the audience that, while the Conservatives have been speaking to the economically secure, he wanted to reach out to the insecure and anxious:

Sometimes it has been Europe that has defended working people against the Conservatives.

In a speech heavily focused on economics, he drove home how much jobs, industries, investment, workers’ rights depended on the EU - “in the next ten years the biggest job creator is going to be the EU”.

Tellingly, and unlike his earlier campaign contributions, he addressed immigration head on: we know here in Scotland the contribution made by waves of immigrants, he said, adding: “There is no solution to numbers simply by leaving the EU”.

Gordon Brown addresses a ‘Labour In’ event.
Gordon Brown addresses a ‘Labour In’ event. Photograph: Oli Scarff/AFP/Getty Images

Brendan Cox, the husband of Jo Cox, has given an interview to the BBC about his wife’s killing. Here are some of the main points.

  • Cox said he thought Jo was killed because of her political views.

She was a politician and she had very strong political views and I believe she was killed because of those views. I think she died because of them, and she would want to stand up for those in death as much as she did in life.

  • He said Jo had concerns about the way political debate was coarsening around the world.

I think she was very worried that the language was coarsening, that people were being driven to take more extreme positions, that people didn’t work with each other as individuals and on issues, it was all much too tribal and unthinking.

And she was particularly worried - we talked about this regularly - particularly worried about the direction of, not just in the UK but globally, the direction of politics at the moment, particularly around creating division and playing on people’s worst fears rather than their best instincts. So we talked about that a lot and it was something that worried her.

  • He gave thanks for the “incredible” public support following Cox’s death and said he thought this had helped his children cope with their grief.

What the public support and outpouring of love around this does, is it also helps the children see that what they’re feeling and other people are feeling, that the grief that they feel, isn’t abnormal, that they feel it more acutely and more painfully and more personally, but that actually their mother was someone who was loved by lots of people and that therefore, it’s OK to be upset and it’s OK for them to cry and to be sad about it ...

I’ve spent a lot of time in the last couple of days talking to child psychologists, and one of the things they say is that that understanding of it being okay to be sad, and to be distressed, and to talk about it, is really important. So just on that very basic level it makes a really important contribution to their healing I think. And then also it gives us some hope that something positive can come out of something which is so horrendous; that there can be a reaction to this horrific action.

  • He said that he was not planning to stand for election in Batley and Spen and that he hoped Jo woud be replaced by a woman. Asked about standing himself, he said:

No, my only overriding priority at the moment is how I make sure that I protect my family and my kids through this and how they’re okay. I hope that whoever replaces her will become another female member of parliament.

Brendan Cox speaking to the BBC.
Brendan Cox speaking to the BBC. Photograph: BBC News

Q: Was the language used by people like Farage partly responsible for what happened to Jo Cox?

Heseltine says he would want to be very cautious about what he says. He says economic factors have raised public concerns about immigration. In America and elsewhere some of the language used in his debate has been deplorable. And the posters. It is not that those using this language intend to inflame. But there are people out there willing to be inflammed.

Farage says some people on the Remain side are determined to paint him and his party as the bad guys. Cox was killed in an act of terrorism. He says the language used in this referendum has not been as vitriolic as the language used in the Scottish referendum.

Heseltine says UK will join euro one day - but not in Farage's lifetime

On LBC Nigel Farage asked Lord Heseltine if he still supported Britain joining the euro. Heseltine said he did:

I think there will come a time when Britain will join.

But Heseltine also this would be “a long time off”. When Farage said he never wanted it to happen, Heseltine told him: “It won’t happen in your lifetime.”.

Farage said Heseltine was in favour of joining in around 2002. But Heseltine corrected him; he said he was in favour in principle, but that he never thought that the timing or the exchange rate were right.

This morning Michael Gove, the leading Vote Leave campaigner, responded to the news that David Beckham is backing Remain by saying that the former England player John Barnes backs Leave.

Only Barnes is backing Remain. He has called Sky News to say so.

This is from Sky’s Faisal Islam.

And these are from Sky’s Beth Rigby.

On LBC Farage and Heseltine are talking about the economic impact of Brexit. Asked about the Institute for Fiscal Studies report saying the Brexit could cost the government up to £40bn, Farage responds by saying it receives 75% of its money from the government and the EU. Heseltine says Farage is trashing one of the most respected economic bodies in the country. And it is not just the IFS making these predictions, he says. He says the IMF said much the same. Farage does not have any economic organisations backing his case, Heseltine says.

The Queen has been asking dinner companions to name “three good reasons why Britain should be part of Europe”, the Telegraph reports. The revelation comes from Robert Lacey, a royal biographer.

Here’s an extract from the Telegraph’s story.

Her Majesty’s biographer, Robert Lacey, reported the Queen’s comments and suggested they may mean the Queen favours withdrawal from the European Union.

Buckingham Palace would neither confirm nor deny that the Queen had been debating the merits of Brexit in private, but royal sources pointed out that the words attributed to the Queen were “a question not a statement”.

However the leading nature of the alleged question adds weight to previous claims that the Queen would like Britain to pull out of the EU.

Nigel Farage debates Lord Heseltine on LBC

Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, is now debating Lord Heseltine, the pro-European former deputy prime minister, on LBC.

Iain Dale (left), the LBC presenter, with Nigel Farage (centre) and Lord Heseltine
Iain Dale (left), the LBC presenter, with Nigel Farage (centre) and Lord Heseltine Photograph: LBC

Q: Why is there so much pressure on housing?

Heseltine says this is a question about immigration. And half the immigrants coming to the UK from outside the EU. The government could cut immigration from outside the EU. But it has not done that because the economy needs immigrants, for example to work in care homes.

Farage says we need to build one new home every four minutes. We cannot make plans for the future because we don’t know how many people will come into the country.

He says he thinks immigration from the EU will get even higher.

Heseltine says Farage is wrong. Heseltine says he works with the Department for Communities, and they do plan for the future.

Farage asks if the government is planning for net migration being below 100,000.

Heseltine says we have more people in employment than ever. Most people have homes and school places for their children. It is “ludicrous” to suggest that are large numbers of people without housing.

Farage says it is okay for Heseltine’s class of people. But for ordinary people in London getting on the housing ladder is impossible.

Heseltine says Farage is trying to turn this into a class battle. He says he is working on an estate regeneration programme for the government.

Lord Heseltine.
Lord Heseltine. Photograph: LBC

Survation poll gives Remain a 1-point lead

Survation has published a new poll this afternoon, and the headline figures give Remain a one-point lead.

When don’t knows are excluded, these figures are equivalent to:

Remain: 51%

Leave: 49%

But Survation says that it also asked a question forcing the undecideds to decide, and that this produced a 50/50 dead heat.

This is from the Daily Mail’s Jason Groves.

David Cameron’s Number 10 statement (see 2pm) would have been a lot more interesting if he had included this argument ...

Here’s Nigel Farage with Ukip’s latest poster.

It is less inflammatory than his last one.

Ukip Leader Nigel Farage unveils a new poster as part of his Brexit campaigning in Clacton-on-Sea in Essex.
Ukip Leader Nigel Farage unveils a new poster as part of his Brexit campaigning in Clacton-on-Sea in Essex. Photograph: Nick Ansell/PA

A Tory councillor who posted an offensive social media post ridiculing fund-raising following the death of MP Jo Cox has been suspended by his local party with a recommendation that he is expelled, the Press Association reports.

East Riding of Yorkshire councillor Dominic Peacock was responding to a news story about the appeal following Mrs Cox’s death reaching 1 million, when he posted on Facebook: “I’ve just donated the steam off my piss.”

Soon after, he posted on a local Vote Leave supporting page: “I’ve deleted my offensive comment, I shouldn’t have put it on in the first place - I won’t make excuses.”

Peacock is one of three Tories who represent the Minster and Woodmansey ward, which covers the countryside just north of the city of Hull, on the Conservative-run council.

Council leader Stephen Parnaby said in a statement: “Following inappropriate and offensive comments made on social media relating to the sad and tragic death of Jo Cox MP, I have suspended Cllr Dominic Peacock from the East Riding of Yorkshire Council Conservative Group with immediate effect. I shall be reporting this to a meeting of the full group and my recommendation will be that he be expelled.

All people in public life, irrespective of politics, should be united in condemning the fatal and dreadful attack on Jo Cox.”

Almost half of those planning to vote Leave believe that the the referendum will be rigged against them, according to YouGov poll findings reported by politics.co.uk.

This won’t surprise the Economist’s Jeremy Cliffe. In a very good Bagehot column in this week’s edition he says that “at a recent Leave event your columnist witnessed Tories and Kippers urge their supporters to take pens into the polling booth on June 23rd to prevent the intelligence services from doctoring their votes”.

Neil Kinnock attending a Remain rally in Cardiff outside the Welsh assembly.
Neil Kinnock attending a Remain rally in Cardiff outside the Welsh assembly. Photograph: Matt Cardy/Getty Images

Steve Hilton, David Cameron’s former director of strategy, told BBC News that he thought the statement made by David Cameron outside Number 10 was “weird”. He explained:

It was very interesting actually and rather an amazing thing to hear because what you just saw from the prime minister was an admission that they have lost the economic argument, they have lost the argument on immigration and so he has been wheeled out by rather panicky spin doctors, it seems to me, to try and change the subject.

If, like many people, you have been dismayed by how shallow much of the debate about the EU in the mainstream media has been, then you may enjoy this blog by my colleague Jack Shenker. He has compiled an alternative EU referendum reading list, with articles putting the case both for Leave and Remain using arguments that have not had much airing in the newspapers.

EasyJet founder Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou has claimed it is “very possible” that flights between the UK and Europe would be more expensive following a Leave vote in the EU referendum, the Press Association reports. He said:

It is certainly not my place to tell people how to vote, but it is very possible that - in a post-Brexit Europe - a more restrictive aviation environment would mean fewer flights from the UK to Europe and hence less competition between airlines.

Lunchtime summary

  • Johnson has said he is “profoundly unhappy” with Nigel Farage’s controversial anti-immigration “Breaking Point” poster. (See 9.33am.)
  • Jeremy Corbyn has signalled that Labour would welcome an early election if the Conservative party can no longer govern. (See 12.20pm.)
  • Farage has denied that he has tone down his campaign while unveiling his latest anti-EU poster bemoaning a lack of school places.
  • Some of the most senior figures in British retailing have signed an open letter today saying that Brexit would be “catastrophic for millions of ordinary families” because it would lead to prices going up. (See 11.04am.)

Updated

In an article for the Financial Times, Larry Summers, a former US Treasury secretary, said:

Brexit could well be the worst self-inflicted policy wound by a G7 country since the formation of the G7 40 years ago.

It is a risk no prudent policy-maker would take. And the risk is not confined to the UK. In the current context, Brexit would unsettle the global economy and possibly tip it into recession.

According to Sky’s Faisal Islam, No 10 are saying David Cameron’s use of Number 10 for his EU referendum statement did not break “purdah” rules.

Cameron's statement - Analysis

Cameron’s statement - Analysis: Bernard Jenkin will go bonkers. We were told to expect a significant statement from David Cameron. In the event he had nothing to announce at all. The significance lay not in what he was saying, but where he was saying it; he was using the full paraphernalia and architecture of prime ministerial office (the podium, and the front door of Number 10) to give authority to his warns about the risks of Brexit.

I mention Jenkin because is is one of the Tory MPs who has been most exercised about Cameron abusing “purdah” - the rule that says the machinery of government is supposed to stay neutral in the final weeks of the campaign. The Brexiteers will be furious with Sir Jeremy Heywood, the cabinet secretary, for allowing this. (He is already quite high up their list of establishment hate figures.) But too late. No one really cares. And Cameron’s message is out.

As far as the message went, it was more or less the same as the standard stump speech he has been giving at every EU referendum event he has attended. That is not a problem, because a good stump speech should contain a strong message worth repeating. The most memorable passages came when Cameron talked about taking tough security decisions “behind that door” and when he made a direct appeal to the middle-aged and the elderly to think of what’s best for their children and grandchildren.

Will it make any difference? All the polling evidence suggests that, like most other frontline politicians, Cameron is distrusted on Europe. Standing in front of a podium will not on its own be enough to repair that reputational damage. But Remain’s position in the polls did seem to suffer a bit when “purdah” set in, and so, for Cameron, a bit of status flaunting was probably worth a gamble.

Besides, he’s at the point in the campaign where anything is worth a try.

David Cameron speaks outside Downing Street.
David Cameron speaks outside Downing Street. Photograph: Matt Dunham/AP

Updated

Cameron says he wants to speak very directly to people of his generation and older.

He knows Europe is not perfect. But we have the best of both worlds.

Do think about the hopes and dreams of your children and grandchildren.

He says their future rests on this decision.

It cannot be undone. It is irreversible, he says.

He says the conversations will continue over the next two days.

But on Thursday it will be “just you in the polling booth”, he says.

He says he believes very strongly from his years of experience we will be stronger, safer and better off in.

If we leave, it will be a risk to jobs and our children’s future.

He urges people to vote remain.

That’s it.

Cameron says for the last six years he has focused on sorting out the economy.

I know I have not got every decision right.

But, on this he is convinced - and every living former prime minister is convinced - that Britain is better off in the EU.

Leaving the EU would put everything at risk, he says.

People whose job it is to warn prime ministers say leaving would hurt the economy, in the short term, the medium term and the long term.

Cameron says 'Brits don't quit'

He says the UK has always made it influence felt, not by walking away from the world, but engaging with it.

Brits don’t quit.

He says if we left the EU, they would still be making decisions - but without us.

He says the UK is a special country.

If he thought remaining diminishes us, he would recommend leaving.

But it does not. It “amplifies our power”, he says.

With the EU behind us we can take a stronger lead dealing with problems around the world, he says.

He says he has been PM for six years. He wants to say why he feels so strongly about this.

The economy will be stronger if we stay, and weaker if we leave.

And it is also about security.

Some of the most chilling moments “behind that door” are reading intelligence reports. He has to “make the right call” to protect people.

He would not be saying we should stay in the EU if being in makes that harder.

He says leaving would make it harder to keep the nation safe. We are safer in, he says.

Cameron's statement

David Cameron says we are near the end of a frenetic campaign.

He wants to pause and speak to the nation about this decision.

Cameron planning Number 10 statement

This is from Sky’s Faisal Islam.

Nigel Farage has been in Harwich taking the Ukip version of the bacon sandwich test.

JK Rowling and Nadine Dorries row on Twitter over David Beckham

Nadine Dorries, the pro-Brexit Tory MP, has used Twitter to patronise David Beckham following his pro-Remain statement this morning.

JK Rowling, who is pro-Remain, has hit back.

That prompted this exchange:

Baby Grace Kiely aged six months wears a Labour In badge as Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn addresses an audience at the People’s History Museum.
Baby Grace Kiely aged six months wears a Labour In badge as Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn addresses an audience at the People’s History Museum. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

Former No 10 policy chief says Hilton's immigration claim is wrong

Here is more from Steve Hilton’s article in the Daily Mail saying David Cameron was told when he was in government that it would be impossible for the government to hit its target of getting net migration below 100,000 while remaining in the EU. Hilton was Cameron’s director of strategy, and this is one of the big stories of the day.

Hilton also said that he personally thought the net migration target should be higher than 100,000 - although that was not something the Mail chose to highlight in its splash story about Hilton’s revelation.

I remember the meetings on immigration towards the end of my time in Downing Street. Everyone around the table, in some way or another, was working hard to try to deliver the government’s commitment ...

We were told, directly and explicitly, that it was impossible for the government to meet its immigration target as long as we remained members of the EU, which, of course, insists on the free movement of people within it ...

In my view, the target itself is set at the wrong level. I would actually like to see more entrepreneurs, engineers, computer scientists — as well as those in genuine need of refuge — welcomed to Britain. I think that would help boost our economy and strengthen, not weaken, our society.

Others might take a different view: you could judge the Prime Minister’s target to be about right. Or too high. That’s what elections are for, to debate things like that.

But the point is, whatever the policy, whatever people vote for, it’s not unreasonable to expect that the Prime Minister of the day is able to deliver it. That is simply not possible in the current, unreformed — and in my view unreformable — EU.

Cameron was asked about this on ITV this morning. He said Hilton was wrong - or at least wrong about the timing of these warnings.

It’s simply not right. When Steve Hilton left Downing Street in 2012, net immigration has actually fallen quite substantially. It had got down to, just after he left, about 154,000, so not far away from the ambition that I set.

Paul Kirby, who was head of policy in Number 10 at the time, has also said Hilton was wrong.

And here is Alan Travis, the Guardian’s home affairs editor, on Hilton’s claim.

Victoria Beckham accuses Leave.EU of misquoting her

Leave.EU has become involved in a bizarre spat with Victoria Beckham. After David Beckham endorsed Remain, it posted this on Twitter.

It then reposted the same quote after she backed her husband. (See 10.35am.)

Beckham then used her Instagram account to accuse Leave.EU of quoting her out of context. She said:

In response to the @leave.eu campaign who have today tried to put a spin on quotes made 20 years ago about keeping or losing the pound, I have to say strongly my comments were not about this referendum and should not be misused in this way! I believe in my country, I believe in a future for my children where we are stronger together and I support the #remain campaign.

But that only prompted Leave.EU to put out a press notice accusing her of trying to twist the facts.

She was absolutely clear.

We quoted her in her own words on the EU seems that she can also Bend the facts like Beckham.

In social media it may be an uneven contest. Leave.EU has 93,000 followers on Twitter. Beckham has 10.1m.

Here is Boris Johnson responding to the news that David Beckham is backing Remain.

Boris Johnson responds to David Beckham backing Remain campaign – video

Corbyn criticises tabloid press for denying the public a serious debate about immigration

Jeremy Corbyn’s Q&A is over. Here are two of the best lines.

  • Corbyn signalled that Labour would welcome an early election if the Conservative party can no longer govern.

If the government cannot continue for ever and ends up deciding that it needs to somehow or other navigate around the Fixed-term Parliaments Act in order to have a general election a little sooner, all I can say is we are very, very ready for that.

  • He criticised tabloid papers for denying the public a serious debate about immigration. He said he understood voters’ concerns on this issue. But he added:

I also understand the role of some of our popular media in failing to have any serious presentational discussion about the issues either way in this debate.

He appealed to people to think about the issue in a “balanced” way.

What I say to people [is], just think the thing through in a balanced way; the 1m plus British people living in Europe and working there and contributing, the almost 1m more who are living there doing work for a temporary period, and the numbers of European migrants that are living, working, paying taxes in Britain, and helping us run our health service and many, many other services. It is not individuals that we should be blaming because of their nationality or because of the colour of their skin or their ethnicity. It is governments that underfund and under-provide services, and companies that grossly exploit and seek to divide people. I’m just asking for a sense of proportion and a sense of decency about this.

And he repeated his call for the government to restore the migration impact fund to help areas affected by high immigration. He said he would keep raising this point with the government “again and again”.

Jeremy Corbyn makes a speech at the Engine Room in the People’s History Museum, Manchester.
Jeremy Corbyn makes a speech at the Engine Room in the People’s History Museum, Manchester. Photograph: Peter Byrne/PA

Q: You have been accused of running a lacklustre campaign. Have your messages cut through?

Corbyn says he has visited every major city in the country, and travelled thousands of miles by train. He thinks his message is getting through.

Labour has had a problem with the media being focused on the problems in the Conservative party. They have not engaged with the issues Labour has raised.

There are only 48 hours left, he says, but to misquote Harold Wilson, 48 hour is a very long time in politics.

Q: Do you understand why many Labour supporters do not back free movement of labour?

Corbyn says he understands the concerns.

And he understands the way some in the media have presented the issues in such a way as to make a serious debate impossible.

He says he is calling for the reintroduction of a migrant impact fund. He will raise this again and again with the government.

But he urges people to think this through in a balanced way. Think of all the Britons working abroad. And think of all the EU migrants here working and paying taxes. It is not individuals we should be blaming. It is the government that should be funding services.

He says he would like to have a sensible debate on this. If he goes to hospital, he does not care who looks after him and where they come from.

Corbyn's Q&A

Corbyn is now taking questions.

Q: In the Guardian today Len McCluskey says the EU and its single market rules have held down wages. Are you worried supporting Remain could cost you the support of some Labour voters.

Corbyn says the proportion of national income going on wages has been reducing. He says Labour will be offering a completely different agenda in 2020, or sooner if there is an election before then.

Q: Are you telling Labour voters they should trust David Cameron and George Osborne more than Boris Johnson and Michael Gove? And could there be a snap election?

Corbyn says it is not for him to intrude on private grief in the Tory party.

If the government cannot continue for ever, and it wants to “navigate around” the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, Labour is “very, very ready for that”.

  • Corbyn suggests Labour would welcome an early election if the Conservative party can no longer govern.

Q: How seriously do you take the risks of black Friday? And how can you persuade Labour voters, given you are lukewarm about the EU?

Corbyn says he does his best to be persuasive on all occasions.

He says there are dangers to the economy. There could be problems for the pound in the short term. And, in the long term, if a tariff wall were to go up, that would create problems for exporters.

He says he has many criticisms of the EU. But he wants to reform it by linking up with others. He says the Labour party is overwhelmingly in favour of staying in and trying to reform it.

He says if anyone wants a lesson on bad employment practices, they should read the Commons select committee report on Sports Direct when it comes out.

Corbyn says that a vote to leave the EU would embolden Nigel Farage and those who support the “disgusting” poster that he produced.

He says prejudice, nastiness and racism never built a house, taught a child or trained a doctor.

Housing is in short supply because governments have not built enough, he says.

He says migrant workers are not a burden on the NHS. They are its saviours. He says you are more likely to be treated by an EU migrant in hospital than to be lying in a bed next to one.

And he says the humanitarian refugee crisis should be dealt with with “humanity”, not “nastiness”.

So let’s unite to try to make the EU a better place, he says.

And that’s it. Corbyn has finished his speech.

Jeremy Corbyn starts by talking about Jo Cox. He says he has received messages of support for politicians and trade unionists from all over the world following her killing.

He says he wants to make the Labour position very clear. Labour is in favour of staying in, for jobs and for workers’ rights.

He says a Labour government in the 1970s introduced the Equal Pay Act. But it did not go far enough. Fourteen years later, it was strengthened by an EU directive, ensuring that work of equal value received equal pay.

He says rights to annual leave have been underpinned by the EU. Without that, people would not have the right to 28 days’ paid holiday.

He says he wants Labour to campaign to eliminate zero-hours contracts in the UK and in the EU as a whole. He says many European countries, such as Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Germany, France, Holland, Poland and Spain have already made them illegal.

He says there are employers in the UK would would like to move to the US norm of workers having only two weeks of paid holiday a year, instead of four weeks.

And he says Priti Patel, the Conservative employment minister, says she wants to tear up half of employment regulations if we leave the EU. She needs to tell us which rights she would give up, he says.

Jeremy Corybn speaking in Manchester.
Jeremy Corybn speaking in Manchester. Photograph: BBC

Alan Johnson, the chair of Labour In for Britain, introduced Jeremy Corbyn at the People’s History Museum in Manchester. Here is an extract from his speech.

There are those who say that when the last referendum was held on membership of what was then the European Economic Community, we only voted for a common market. Not True.

I was a postman back then in 1975. I delivered the leaflets on both sides in that referendum. Here’s what the Yes leaflet said on page 4 in relation to what that vote was about:

“To bring together the peoples of Europe, To raise living standards and improve working conditions, To promote growth and boost world trade To help the poorest regions of Europe and the rest of the world, To help maintain peace and freedom.”

That vision is as relevant today 41 years later. Jeremy and I as baby boomers are part of the first generation of men who were not sent off to fight a war on European soil.

Alan Johnson speaking at a Remain event in Manchester.
Alan Johnson speaking at a Remain event in Manchester. Photograph: Phil Noble/Reuters

Corbyn's speech in Manchester

Jeremy Corbyn is giving a Remain speech in Manchester.

There is a live feed here.

The Scottish Tories have denied reports in both the Telegraph and Dundee Courier that their leader Ruth Davidson wants her party to entirely break away from the UK party if Boris Johnson became leader.

The Courier and Telegraph report today the prospects of Johnson replacing David Cameron, either after a Brexit vote or not, is causing so much concern in the Scottish party that “going solo is seen as a viable option.”

Davidson has not responded directly but today tweeted her article for Conservative Home yesterday which calls for Tory leaders to set aside their “private feuds” after the referendum, regardless of the result, in an implicit reference to the warfare between senior Brexit figures like Johnson and Michael Gove, versus Cameron and Osborne.

The party had to “come together and work together” on Friday, she said.

The Conservative party I know, the Conservative party I love, does not wear its duty to this country or the service to its people lightly. To abrogate our responsibilities in government in order to continue private feuds after Thursday would be a self-indulgence that would diminish us.

A Scottish Tory spokesman also dismissed the story, saying there “no substance to this whatsoever.”

Davidson has implied in columns and interviews she loathes Johnson; he is seen to represent a very English brand of populist Toryism, while Davidson puts her success in Holyrood’s May election down to reinventing the party as Scottish, centrist and pro-working people.

Former and current supermarket bosses say Brexit would be 'catastrophic for millions of families'

Some of the most senior figures in British retailing have signed an open letter today saying that Brexit would be “catastrophic for millions of ordinary families” because it would lead to prices going up. The letter has been publicised by Britain Stronger in Europe.

Their claims are supported by a report from Usdaw, the shopworkers union, saying that workers would be at least £580 a year worse off if Britain leaves the EU because of the fall in the value of the pound and the impact of tariffs on imported goods.

Here is the full text of the letter.

We are experienced retailers from Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Marks & Spencer, Asda, Waitrose, Morrisons and B&Q and with USDAW, who represent hundreds of thousands of trade union members, believe that if we leave the European Union prices will rise.

There are two key reasons for this.

Firstly, supply chains. We’ve spent the last few decades building very strong supply chains with the EU, which are fully integrated in order to deliver better quality, choice and value for the UK consumer. The single market and free trade are critically important to the strength of the consumer economy. Food is always one of the battle grounds for trade negotiations and the idea that we can reshape supply chains which have taken 45 years to build, in two to three years, is delusional.

Secondly, the value of the pound. In the past two weeks alone, as worries over leaving Europe have increased, the pound has fallen dramatically. This will push up prices. A ‘Leave’ vote will very likely make this worse and lead to a further rise in prices - such as the cost of filling a petrol tank, and the price of a weekly shop. We strongly believe that a Brexit will see less money in people’s pockets and be catastrophic for millions of ordinary families. That is why we believe that Britain should remain in the EU on 23rd June.

It has been signed by:

Marc Bolland, former CEO of Marks & Spencer and Morrisons

Sir Ian Cheshire, chairman of Debenhams and former chief executive of Kingfisher

Justin King, former CEO of Sainsbury

Sir Terry Leahy, former CEO of Tesco

Andy Clarke, the outgoing Asda chief executive

Dalton Philips, the former Morrisons CEO

Lord Price, the former Waitrose managing director, and now a trade minister

John Hannett, the Usdaw general secetary

And here is Alistair Darling, the former Labour chancellor, commenting on the letter.

Every credible economic expert is clear – leaving the EU, our biggest market, would hit trade, boost inflation, and increase the price of imports. This would be devastating for working people who cannot afford a rise in the cost of living.

The economic consequences of leaving Europe could well be worse than the damage done by the Great Recession of 2008. Workers, families and small businesspeople would all be hammered if we leave. The safe choice is to vote to remain in Europe.

Victoria Beckham backs Remain too

Victoria Beckham is backing Remain too.

At least, that is the only way of interpreting her tweet.

Today the supreme court is hearing an appeal from Theresa May, the home secretary, against a court of appeal ruling saying she cannot remove an Italian convicted killer from the country. In a statement issued by Vote Leave, Dominic Raab, the justice minister, said this illustrates how EU rules are a threat to public safety. He explained:

This case shines a light on the skewed moral compass at the heart of EU rules on free movement. An EU national convicted of brutally killing someone in this country, by hammering and strangling them to death, can’t be removed on the basis of the conviction by a UK court. It’s dangerous and undemocratic. The prime minister is absolutely right to describe the legal position as “complete madness”. The only way to restore some sanity is to vote leave and take back control of our borders on 23 June.

Tonight we’re going to see Ruth Davidson, the pro-Remain Scottish Conservative leader, going head to head against Boris Johnson on the BBC’s EU debate. There are four other participants too, but the Davidson/Johnson clash is much anticipated, because she is not a Johnson fan and she is expected to challenge him strongly.

According an article in today’s Telegraph, she feels so strongly about him that she thinks that, if he became Conservative party leader, the Scottish party might have to cut links with London and decare itself independent.

Senior sources close to the Scottish Tory leader said she thinks the former Mayor of London would be toxic to her party’s electoral hopes north of the Border if he succeeds David Cameron in the wake of a vote for Brexit on Thursday.

They said Ms Davidson predicts the Scottish Conservatives would have to “do a Murdo”, a reference to her former leadership rival Murdo Fraser’s controversial proposal to break away from the UK Tories and form a new right-wing party.

Although they did not specify the source of her antipathy towards Mr Johnson, she used an outspoken newspaper opinion piece to claim he had the same “brazen chauvinistic style” as Alex Salmond.

Ruth Davidson.
Ruth Davidson. Photograph: Murdo Macleod for the Guardian

David Cameron was on ITV’s Lorraine show talking about David Beckham’s Remain endorsement. He told the programme:

There was a very moving statement today from David Beckham talking about his children and saying how effectively, what he said to me was, ‘You can’t win in Europe, unless you’re on the pitch’.

And that’s true. I worry about that as prime minister, I know that we sit around the table and make decisions about security and safety and fighting terrorism and all the rest of it, fighting climate change. And if we leave they don’t stop meeting and making decisions that affect us, but they’ll be making decisions about us but without us in the room and that would be bad for Britain.

David Cameron appearing on ITV’s Lorraine show.
David Cameron appearing on ITV’s Lorraine show. Photograph: ITV/PA

Boris Johnson’s LBC phone-in is over.

Here are over two of the key lines.

  • Johnson accuses Downing Street of using threats to get business leaders to support Remain.

I can’t tell you the pressure that Project Fear and Remain put on senior business people not to articulate their views. One way or another, everyone has an interest in keeping friendly with government ... I do not wish in any way to be disparaging or critical of my friends in government, but it is well known that there is an operation in Downing Street. You will get a call from certain gentlemen and they will say ‘We want to continue to have contracts with you’, or ‘It’s very important we want to continue friendly relations’, there’s the honours system, all this kind of thing ... There’s a bit of leaning on. And the heroism of people therefore like [Anthony] Bamford and [James] Dyson [who have come out for Leave] is very remarkable.

  • He said he was “profoundly unhappy” with the Ukip “Breaking point” poster.

I did not like it. It seemed to saying that these were bad people coming to our country. That seemed to be the message. And I felt profoundly unhappy with it.

Q: Should George Osborne stay as chancellor, if we vote Remain or Leave.

Of course, says Johnson.

He says if we vote Leave, “all the fear will stop - people will realise it was all nonsense”.

Johnson says the UK could have a free trade deal with the EU that would be beneficial to both sides.

There is a difference between free trade and the single market. The single market has morphed into a federal superstate, he says.

Johnson says he refuses to accept Osborne has no contingency plans for Brexit

Q: George Osborne says he has no plan for Friday if he votes for Brexit. If that is true, it is disgraceful. He should resign.

Johnson says he has thought about this a lot. He thinks Osborne is not telling the truth.

  • Johnson says he refuses to accept Osborne has no contingency plans for Brexit.

He says Osborne is claiming there is no plan for Brexit because he is engaged in Project Fear.

Johnson condemns Ukip’s ‘Breaking Point’ poster, saying it implied refugees were 'bad people'

Q: Can you in all conscience accept votes that have been generated by Ukip’s scurrilous campaign?

Johnson says Vote Leave has nothing to do with Ukip’s campaign. As mayor of London he fought for the rights of immigrants.

Q: What is your view of Ukip’s campaign?

Johnson says he only wants to talk about his campaign.

Q: What was your view of the Ukip poster?

Johnson says he did not like it. It made him profoundly unhappy. It implied these were bad people.

He says that it is important to take back control of immigration to neutralise extremism.

He says he does not like some of the “xenophobic undertones” in the Ukip campaign.

  • Johnson condemns Ukip’s ‘Breaking Point’ poster, saying it implied refugees were “bad people”.

Q: So would Farage get a job in a Johnson government?

Johnson says there is not going to be such a government. But he does not say no.

  • Johnson does not rule out giving Nigel Farage a post in government (although he claims that he will not be forming a government).

Johnson says he does not approve of people who have been in the UK for a long time being kicked out of the country.

Nigel Farage with Ukip’s ‘Breaking Point’ poster.
Nigel Farage with Ukip’s ‘Breaking Point’ poster. Photograph: REX/Shutterstock

Johnson says it is interesting to see that Labour is now backing changes to the free movement of labour rules in the EU.

Q: I am tempted to vote for Brexit. But it will be in the EU’s interests to ensure we fail, because if we succeeed, it will be the end of the EU.

Johnson says it is not in the EU’s interests to give us “punishment beatings”.

Q: If Britain votes for Brexit, will you back David Cameron to stay on as prime minister?

Yes, says Johnson.

He says he thinks Cameron would be in a strong position to negotiate with the EU.

Johnson says he will apologise to public if Brexit leads to a recession

Q: If you vote for Brexit and the economy goes into recession, will you go on TV and apologise?

Johnson says of course he will.

  • Johnson says he will apologise to the public if Britain votes for Brexit and a recession does take place.

But he says he does not think London, or Britain, has anything to fear from coming out of the EU.

Boris Johnson's LBC phone-in

Boris Johnson, the leading Vote Leave campaigner, is hosting an LBC phone-in now.

You can watch it here.

Asked about today’s comments from George Soros, Johnson says the Remain campaign’s “Project Fear” tactics have not worked.

Johnson says it is better to pay attention to Anthony Bamford, the JCB boss, than George Soros. Bamford creates jobs, he says. He says Soros is just an expert in market speculation.

Johnson also cites James Dyson, who is also pro-Leave.

Q: So why don’t we hear more from these people?

Johnson says there is a Number 10 operation to put pressure on people. He implies that people are told they will lose contracts if they do not support the government line.

  • Johnson accuses Downing Street of using threats to encourages businesses to back Remain.
Boris Johnson.
Boris Johnson. Photograph: LBC

Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Claire.

Following David Beckham’s decision to come out for Remain, it is worth recalling one of the conclusions that emerged from focus groups about the EU referendum hosted by the Guardian. My colleagues Heather Stewart and Anushka Asthana wrote up the findings, and here is one of the 10 things they learnt.

Barack Obama, who was wheeled out weeks ago by No 10, was viewed as convincing by remainers – but his involvement was resented by leavers. “Obama’s not even in Britain so what does he care, what does he know?” said one. But if telly naturalist or David Attenborough or footballer David Beckham were to venture an opinion on Brexit, our focus groups suggest the public would be all ears.

David Cameron has welcomed the endorsement.

David Beckham backs Remain

I’m going to avoid all footballing metaphors, although no one else will, and simply let you know that David Beckham has declared himself in favour of remain:

I’m passionate about my country and whatever the result of Thursday’s referendum, we will always be Great. Each side has the right to their opinion and that should always be respected whatever the outcome of the European referendum.

I played my best years at my boyhood club, Manchester United. I grew up with a core group of young British players … but we were a better and more successful team because of a Danish goalkeeper, Peter Schmeichel, the leadership of an Irishman Roy Keane and the skill of a Frenchman in Eric Cantona.

I was also privileged to play and live in Madrid, Milan and Paris with teammates from all around Europe and the world …

We live in a vibrant and connected world where together as a people we are strong. For our children and their children we should be facing the problems of the world together and not alone. For these reasons I am voting to Remain.

These are just the edited highlights (gah, sorry). For the full statement, see here.

David Beckham with a bumblebee Aegon Tennis Championships, Queens Club, London, UK - 14 Jun 2016
David Beckham is for remain. The bumblebee’s affiliation is unclear. Photograph: REX/Shutterstock

Updated

Gove has conceded that during negotiations for a Brexit, the government would have no greater control over EU immigration, for as long as four years. He told the Today programme that in the meantime “we can change policy with respect to non-EU migration” – but pressed on why ministers had not already done so, he said:

I don’t want to criticise any other colleague.

But the net migration target of under 100,000 “was the manifesto commitment that we all stood on” – even though Steve Hilton has claimed this morning that David Cameron knew this target was “impossible”.

Gove told the BBC:

I believed and hoped that we would be able to secure a deal with Europe that would enable us [to meet the target].

I don’t blame him [Cameron]; I do blame the other leaders of Europe.

And asked whether he will quit should remain win out on Thursday?

I will do exactly as the prime minister asks me … I will reflect and I will decide what is the best course for me.

Would the EU seek to punish British if it votes to go? Gove thinks not.

I’m sure there’ll be an element of pique on the part of one or two eurocrats but it is in their economic interests to come to a deal with us …

We are the second biggest contributor to the European Union – we have financial leverage.

Does any European leader agree that Britain will be able to get a better deal? Gove insisted yes:

Funnily enough, Jacques Delors agreed with me … he spoke with the honesty of someone who has left office.

If they’re in office then of course they want Britain to stay because we are a net contributor.

The European Union leaders … because they get so much money from the UK, don’t want to see that threatened … they follow the money.

If you vote to leave, they would follow the money.

Turning to the negotiations that would need to start if Britain votes for Brexit, Gove insisted:

It certainly won’t be me as prime minister!

But whoever leads the talks, he said:

We’ll be in a position to secure a better deal than the one we have now.

Michael Gove has been speaking on the Today programme. Asked about the warning from George Soros about a “Black Friday” if the UK votes to leave, Gove said:

The people will be in control. What happens in markets is a reflection of the underlying strength of the economy …

George Soros is an advocate of the single currency … he thought the single currency would be a good thing for Europe.

Gove insisted he had “never said we should ignore all experts” but those from “acronyms that got the single currency wrong”:

The truth is that economic forecasters like George Soros have got things wrong in the past.

He calls the EU a “misery-inducing, unemployment-creating tragedy”.

Michael Gove.
Michael Gove. Photograph: Jack Taylor/Getty Images

We know, of course, that the pollsters failed to predict last year’s general election outcome, yet it’s difficult to ignore entirely the polls tracking the current campaign. But should we be paying more attention to the bookies instead?

Sean Clarke reports:

According to the opinion polls, Thursday night’s referendum will be tight: surveys generally showed the leave camp ahead until late last week, when the remain camp clawed back some ground.

But bookmakers, who have already taken in record volumes of bets on this vote, see things very differently. Across the leading purveyors of political betting, average odds currently hover at around 1/4 implying a 75% probability that remain will win. So who should you trust?

In the recent past the polls and the bookies have either been wrong together or right together. Why are they disagreeing this time? It may be that the bookies are persuaded that the status quo has a powerful attraction in referendum votes. Certainly, the financial markets seem less spooked than you would imagine if they were expecting Brexit.

Economist Nouriel Roubini – one of the few to have predicted the global financial crisis – has tweeted about what he believes would be the risks of Britain voting to leave:

It’s become a fashion during this campaign for leave campaigners – including Michael Gove – to decry the interventions of experts, but Sky News political editor Faisal Islam says Roubini’s advice should be given some credence:

Pressed on whether he would vote to join the EU now if Britain were not already a member, Nick Clegg told the Today programme that he would.

If you didn’t have the European Union you’d have to invent something pretty close to it.

We are tectonically, geographically in Europe – that’s not going to change in a vote on Thursday.

Why should we turn out back on something we have successfully created? … If it was the source of all of our problems, I don’t think we’d be so successful economically.

Nick Clegg says the leave campaign’s focus on immigration is “the biggest con of all”:

Of all the fibs and nonsense I’ve heard in this campaign … the biggest fib of all is that they will cut immigration, when they have no plan to do so whatsoever.

Leave campaigners have no plan at all to bring immigration down in any meaningful way … it’s the biggest con of all.

They cannot even agree among themselves whether they would implement a new land border in Ireland.

Clegg says such a border “would have a devastating impact on peace”.

Remain campaigners need to be honest with voters about immigration, he says:

We just have to be candid with people that the largescale movement of people… is a fact of international life that you have to deal with … whether you are in the European Union or not.

The false prospectus of the leave campign [is] that immigration will disappear like the morning mist melting in the morning sun … it will not.

Nick Clegg on the Today programme

Nick Clegg, the former Lib Dem leader who was also, of course, the deputy prime minister at the time ex-Cameron adviser Steve Hilton says No 10 was being told the migration target was “impossible” , has been speaking on the Today programme.

Clegg says he has “absolutely no recollection” of the meeting Hilton mentions.

But, he adds, the aim to reduce net migration to tens of thousands

was not a government target, it was an internal Conservative debate.

Clegg says the net migration target never made sense, because

You can’t control people leaving as well as those coming in.

Morning briefing

Welcome to our daily EU referendum coverage, with just two days to go until polling stations open. I’m wrapping up the early news in our morning briefing and steering the live blog until Andrew Sparrow joins us. Do come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.

The big picture

George Soros – described as “the world’s most famous currency speculator” – has cast his speculative eye over Brexit and, in a column for the Guardian today, warns it would trigger a sterling fall worse than that seen on Black Wednesday:

Too many believe that a vote to leave the EU will have no effect on their personal financial position. This is wishful thinking. It would have at least one very clear and immediate effect that will touch every household: the value of the pound would decline precipitously. It would also have an immediate and dramatic impact on financial markets, investment, prices and jobs.

Soros’ intervention comes after the pound made its biggest one-day rise for almost eight years on Monday, as markets sensed a shift back towards a remain vote.

My colleagues Larry Elliott and Jill Treanor report on Soros:

He said that, as in 1992, there would be big financial gains for speculators who had bet on the UK leaving the EU but that such an outcome would leave ‘most voters considerably poorer’.

Soros said that unlike after Black Wednesday, there was little scope for a cut in interest rates, the UK was running a much larger current account deficit, and exporters would be unable to exploit the benefits of a cheaper pound due to the uncertainty caused by a vote to leave the EU.

George Soros: don’t say he didn’t warn you.
George Soros: don’t say he didn’t warn you. Photograph: Pascal Lauener/Reuters

It’s a theme that Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will repeat – perhaps less dramatically – at a speech in Manchester this morning, at which he will warn wobbly Labour voters that leaving the EU could risk Britain’s economic stability and workers’ rights, hot on the heels of his appearance on Sky News last night (of which more later).

Meanwhile, the leave campaign leans on its own favoured theme: immigration. Steve Hilton, David Cameron’s former adviser, says the prime minister knew four years ago that his pledge – now rephrased as an “ambition” – to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands was impossible:

We were told, directly and explicitly, that it was impossible for the government to meet its immigration target as long as we remained members of the EU, which of course insists on the free movement of people within it…

In the 2015 Conservative manifesto, the prime minister reaffirmed his commitment to the immigration target he had been told was undeliverable. When I saw that, I assumed this was either because he was certain he could negotiate a solution within the EU, or was assuming we would leave.

No 10 told the BBC it “did not recognise Hilton’s account”.

In Westminster, MPs gathered yesterday to pay tribute to Jo Cox, killed last week in her constituency, as the fund set up to raise money for three charities she supported passed the £1m mark. Cox’s friend and Labour colleague Rachel Reeves told the Commons:

It is ironic that after travelling the world to some of the most damaged, war-ravaged places, Jo died so near to her home. But she died doing the job that she loved, in the place that she loved, representing the people she loved.

An order of service at a service of prayer and remembrance to commemorate Jo Cox at St Margaret’s church, London.
An order of service at a service of remembrance for Jo Cox at St Margaret’s church, London. Photograph: Yui Mok/PA

Leave.EU, the Ukip-backed campaign group, came in for criticism after its biggest donor, Arron Banks, admitted commissioning polling on whether Cox’s death would affect voting intentions. Banks told LBC:

We were hoping to see what the effect of the event was. That is an interesting point of view, whether it would shift public opinion … I don’t see it as very controversial.

Jeremy Corbyn on Sky News: what we learned

The Labour leader underwent his first – and only – TV showpiece on the referendum on Monday evening and told us why he’s not a “lover of the European Union”:

I’m opposed to the Transatlantic Trade Investment Partnership, which is being negotiated, largely in secret, between the European Union and the US because it would import the worse working conditions and standards from the US into Europe. I am also opposed to the way in which Europe shields tax havens – this country as well shields tax havens – and the way in which systematically big companies are exploiting loopholes in employment law.

But voting remain is the “rational decision”:

If we are to deal with issues like climate change, like environmental issues, you cannot do it within national borders, you can only do it across national borders. The refugee crisis has to be dealt with internationally not nationally.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn speaks during a live TV debate on June 20, 2016 in London, England. This is Corbyn’s only live set-piece television appearance to promote the remain campaign ahead of the EU referendum on June 23rd. (Photo by Handout/Getty Images)
Jeremy Corbyn: “We have got two days of intense interest, I hope.” Photograph: Getty Images

Which isn’t to say he’s happy for things to stay as they are:

If we remain, I believe Europe has got to change quite dramatically to something much more democratic, much more accountable, and to share our wealth and improve our living standards and working conditions all across the whole continent.

And Europe – and Britain – needs to do more on the refugee crisis:

Every government across Europe has got to play its part in housing those refugees because Syrian refugees are just like all of us in this room. They are fleeing from a war looking for somewhere safe to go to, surely there has to be a humanitarian response, not the bigoted response of putting up a 32-sheet poster that says a group of desperate people are somehow or other a threat to us. No they’re not, they are no threat at all, the threat is the hatred that is put towards those people by those people that put up that poster …

I want to be there to argue that Europe has to have a different response. Look, if there was no European Union and instead you had 27 member states would there be any co-ordinated response or not? Probably not. Would there be any route out for those refugees? Probably not.

He isn’t arguing for restrictions on free movement (as some Labour colleagues have done):

If you restrict movement of labour across Europe then you are defeating the whole point of there being one market within Europe.

He doesn’t think voters are fed up with the campaign:

There are a couple of days to go and my experience, and I have been involved in lots of elections over my life, that in the last two or three days when all the politicians have become exhausted with the campaigning, the public finally catch on and get interested in it. So we have got two days of intense interest, I hope.

If Britain votes to leave, it won’t be Corbyn’s fault:

I’m not going to take blame for people’s decision … I am hoping there is going to be a remain vote, there may well be a remain vote, there may well be a leave vote. Whatever the result, that is the result of the referendum, we’ve got to work with it.

What we didn’t learn

What on earth “the establishment” is if it doesn’t include the leader of Her Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition:

I’m not a member of the establishment, I’m a member of the Labour party, I’m the leader of the Labour party and I’m a Labour MP.

The key exchange

Sky News political editor Faisal Islam: On this issue you have some strange bedfellows now. The chancellor, George Osborne, told Sky News last week it’s the people on the lower incomes who will be hit first if there’s a recession, Brexit is for the richest in our country. Do you agree with the chancellor?

Corbyn: That’s a very odd statement coming from George Osborne, I confess it’s the first I’ve heard of it so … Can I reflect on that?!

You should also know

Poll position

Contradictory polls all over the place this morning. An ORB poll for the Telegraph puts remain back in front for the first time in almost a month on 53% to leave’s 46%, among those certain to vote. A Times/YouGov poll, however, sees leave retain a lead of two points over remain, 51% to 49%. Which leaves the FT’s poll of polls precisely where it was yesterday: 44% apiece.

Meanwhile, a survey by the Electoral Reform Society reveals that 16% of people – that’s one in seven – haven’t been contacted at all about the referendum: no leaflets, no phone calls, no emails, no door-knocks. Failure of democratic engagement or blessed relief?

Diary

You can’t move for Labour politicians making the case for remain today, but the big set-piece comes this evening, with the BBC’s “great debate” at Wembley Arena.

  • Jeremy Corbyn makes his speech in Manchester at 10am, alongside Labour colleagues Alan Johnson and Kate Green.
  • Nigel Farage is in Clacton from 11am, at the same time Ed Miliband pitches up in Luton.
  • Also at 11am, another Brexit flotilla sets sail, this time up the Humber.
  • Noon sees Neil Kinnock in Cardiff. Then Miliband is back again, this time with Harriet Harman in Birmingham at 3pm.
  • Alan Johnson switches to Derby for an event with Margaret Beckett at 3.30pm, and Tom Watson is in Brighton at the same time.
  • At 5pm Gordon Brown speaks in Glasgow.
  • Grassroots Out rallies in Stafford at 7pm, with Bill Cash, Owen Paterson, Chris Grayling and Ukip’s Steven Woolfe.
  • It’s the BBC debate from 8-10pm, hosted by David Dimbleby, Mishal Husain and Emily Maitlis, and featuring (for leave) Boris Johnson, Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom; and (for remain) Ruth Davidson, Sadiq Khan and the TUC’s Frances O’Grady.
  • Then you can probably go to bed.
Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson: on her way to Wembley.
Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson: on her way to Wembley. Photograph: Murdo Macleod for the Guardian

Read these

BBC World News presenter Katty Kay writes of five common factors that could link a Brexit win to a Donald Trump victory:

The forces of globalisation are causing havoc for European workers as they are for American workers. If you are a white working-class man (in particular) the combined effects of immigration, free trade and technology have made your job and your wages less secure.

Policy-makers in the UK and the US have singularly failed to address these issues in any meaningful way. If the Brexit camp wins next week, it could suggest the global anti-globalisation mood (if such a thing is possible) is stronger than we realised.

In the Wall Street Journal, James Mackintosh also considers the possibility of a sterling crisis:

If a fall in the pound turns into a downward spiral, the Bank of England could appeal to foreign central banks to help. But coordinated intervention would surely require the Bank of England to raise rates to help support sterling, too. This would be an extreme outcome, a true loss of confidence in the UK. Even those who worry about it think it unlikely, just not as unlikely as markets suggest …

There is a far more likely outcome, which is also being ignored: The Bank of England might raise rates sooner than the market expects if Brexit happens – not because it is forced to by a sterling crisis, but because leaving the EU damages investment and restricts immigration, making Britain more inflationary.

Rachel Sylvester in the Times argues that “if the Remainers have played the politics of fear, the Leave camp have dabbled in the politics of hate”:

The Leave campaign has wrapped the monster in a myth that Brexit will deal with voters’ every concern, from immigration to inequality, struggling public services to unaccountable elites. It can’t and it won’t, which means that whatever the outcome of the referendum the anger will only grow. This isn’t just about Europe. Politicians have too often fuelled an incendiary and divisive atmosphere. The Conservative campaign against Sadiq Khan in the recent London mayoral election deliberately sought to play up differences between communities in London by linking him to Islamic extremists … In the Labour party, the politics of division are all too clear in antisemitism and ill-disguised misogyny among some on the hard left …

Far from appealing to our better instincts, the referendum campaign – like too much of our politics – has sought to unleash the nastiest side of ourselves.

Baffling claim of the day

Worried about the possible consequences of Brexit? Don’t trouble yourself, says a column in Australia’s Herald Sun about the “sheer and utter rubbish” of the warnings issued by those opposed to leaving the EU. And why? Because:

Global warming hysteria has demonstrated all too clearly how (supposedly) very clever people can say (unqualifiedly) very stupid things.

Shame about the Great Barrier Reef, though, eh?

Coral bleaching at Loomis Reef, off Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef.
Coral bleaching at Loomis Reef, off Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. Photograph: Essential Media

Celebrity endorsement of the day

Paula Radcliffe, who knows a thing or two about marathon campaigns, has tweeted her backing for staying the distance: “One of many reasons I am proud to be British AND European. #VoteRemain.”

The day in a tweet

The Guardian’s own Tom Clark pops up in this podcast from Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, but you might just enjoy the sentiment of the tweet:

And another thing

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