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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
Politics
Andrew Sparrow and Claire Phipps

EU referendum: TNS poll gives leave campaign seven-point lead - as it happened

Jeremy Corbyn
Jeremy Corbyn is applauded by senior members of his party and trade unionists at the Labour In for Britain event in London. Photograph: Dylan Martinez/Reuters

Afternoon summary

  • A TNS poll has given Leave a 7-point lead. (See 3.48pm.)
  • Tom Watson, Labour’s deputy leader, has called for restrictions on the EU’s freedom of movement rules, saying David Cameron should start pushing for this during the UK’s presidency of the EU next year. (See 4.38pm.) The Labour MP John Mann, who is backing Brexit, said this was pointless.

While some in the In campaign are desperately trying to hang on to the idea that Cameron’s renegotiation could reduce immigration, senior Labour figures are openly admitting defeat on this issue - and calling for a change to the EU’s obsession with freedom of movement.

While it is welcome that they are finally admitting that uncontrolled migration is a problem, the truth is that they still have no solutions. If Cameron’s “renegotiation” told us one thing, it is that the EU will not move on this founding principle.

The only way to take back control of our borders and introduce an Australian style points based immigration system is to Vote Leave on 23 June.

  • Britain’s stock market has hit a new three-month low as Brexit worries sweep through the City. As Graeme Wearden reports, the blue-chip FTSE 100 index has closed down 121 points at 5923, its lowest level since late February, and its fourth day of heavy falls. That wipes around £30bn off its value. The Footsie has now shed 378 points since the start of trading on Thursday, when Brexit fears began to mount.That means a staggering £98bn has been wiped off the value of Britain’s biggest companies in four trading days.
  • Leave.EU has announced that it has cancelled plans for its ‘Last Night of the Brexit Proms’, also known as BpopLive. It said that Electoral Commission regulations had led to it taking this decision and it accused the commission of pursing “a spiteful vendetta”.
  • Sir Charlie Maylfied, chairman of John Lewis, has said withdrawal from the European Union would have an “adverse impact” on consumer confidence and spending in the UK for as much as five years and would probably lead to higher prices in the shops.

That’s all for me for today.

Thanks for the comments.

Updated

Ukip leader Nigel Farage stands with a Brexit supporter during his party’s referendum Brexit battlebus tour in Kingston, London.
Ukip leader Nigel Farage stands with a Brexit supporter during his party’s referendum Brexit battlebus tour in Kingston, London. Photograph: Lauren Hurley/PA

Leave has got an endorsement from the Sun, but Remain has got - the British Medical Journal. As the Press Association reports, it says that that the health case for Britain staying in the EU is “overwhelming” and that it is taking sides in the referendum after being unable to find any prominent health organisation that backs Brexit.

Labour MP Alison McGovern MP (left), Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper MP singing ‘the wheels on the bus’ to children from Giant Leap - Child Care and Learning House during a Vote Remain canvassing visit today.
Labour MP Alison McGovern MP (left), Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper MP singing ‘the wheels on the bus’ to children from Giant Leap - Child Care and Learning House during a Vote Remain canvassing visit today. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

Mandleson says Brexit would make financial crash look like 'a walk in the park'

Lord Mandelson, the Labour former business secretary and former European trade commissioner, has said that Brexit would make the financial crash look like “a walk in the park”. At a business lunch organised by London First he said:

Far from being able to transfer savings from leaving the EU to more spending, for example, on the NHS, or schools, or universities, or farmers, we will eventually be facing cumulative, year-on-year post-Brexit austerity that would make the last financial crisis look like a walk in the park.

He said that people should not be “conned” into thinking leaving the EU would solve their concerns about immigration.

We will be taking the message across the country to Labour voters. There is so much riding on this, there is so much at stake. Do not be conned into thinking you can solve your concerns about immigration by leaving the European Union because all that will do is wreck the economy and make everything you rely on weaker and everything else you want in life harder to get.

And he said the future of the City was hanging by a thread.

The future of this great global city, in my opinion, hangs by a thread. If Britain votes to leave Europe a lot of Europe will have to leave London.

Lord Mandelson.
Lord Mandelson. Photograph: Steve Back/REX

On the World at One Sir Charlie Mayfield, chairman of John Lewis, said that Brexit would be bad for his business. He said it was up to members of staff to decide for themselves how they voted, but he said management had been asked by staff about the impact leaving the EU would have. He told the programme:

What we have said to them is if the UK votes to leave the European Union it would have an adverse impact on consumer confidence and activity. It is very, very hard to say for how long what would last, but it could easily be for a period of five years. And if, for example, you have things like a weaker currency, it will probably mean that prices rise. If there is less investment, which seems possible, then that could have an impact on jobs. And so there are concerns.

Watson says Cameron should push for reform of EU free movement rules during UK presidency in 2017

The BBC has now released the full transcript of Laura Kuenssberg’s interview with Tom Watson in which he proposed curbs on EU freedom of movement rules.

It was not just a casual reference. Watson repeatedly said that Labour, and other parties fighting the 2020 election, would have to propose some form of restriction on EU migrants because this is what voters wanted.

He also said that David Cameron should push for reform in this area when the UK holds the rotating presidency of the EU next year.

Watson said:

I think it’s very likely that a Labour government would want to reform the European Union and yes, if we get to a general election in 2020, of course we would have to listen to our voters. They’re giving us a pretty clear signal in this referendum, and I think we should be listening very clearly to what they’re telling us ...

I’m very proud of Jeremy’s very long-held view that Britain should rightly lead the world in its reputation for providing haven for people fleeing war-torn areas or fleeing persecution, but that pride risks being undermined if we don’t address the concerns of British workers who have been affected by a de-regulated labour market. And they’ve been telling us for some time now that we need to look at these issues. So I think it could be that we go into a UK general election with that reform proposals on offer ...

With freedom of movement, it’s one issue that’s coming up on the doorstep. A future government - whether it be Labour or Conservative - has to hear what voters are telling them and if you look across the continent of Europe, voters are telling political elites the same thing. So to me it’s inevitable that whoever wins the next general election will have to make it their negotiating position when it comes to future European reform and David Cameron has the opportunity to do that as prime minister now if he makes it the priority for Britain’s leadership of the presidency of the EU next year.

One problem with this proposal is that Cameron pushed very hard for reform of the freedom of movement rules during his EU renegotiation and found that Germany and other EU member states were refusing to budge. If the threat of the UK leaving was not enough to trigger reform, it is hard to what Cameron could achieve during the UK’s presidency.

Another problem for Watson is that Jeremy Corbyn said in a speech earlier this month that Britain “cannot and must not close the borders” to workers from the European Union.

Tom Watson (centre, holding flowers) with Chris Bryant, Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell at the vigil for the victims of the Orlando nightclub shooting, outside the Admiral Duncan pub on Old Compton Street, Soho, on Monday.
Tom Watson (centre, holding flowers) with Chris Bryant, Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell at the vigil for the victims of the Orlando nightclub shooting, outside the Admiral Duncan pub on Old Compton Street, Soho, on Monday. Photograph: Jack Taylor/Getty Images

This is from the Times’s Rachel Sylvester.

Updated

"A toxic mix of misrepresentations, half-truths and folly' - Bild on UK's EU referendum debate

Europe’s bestselling tabloid, Germany’s Bild, has today published a scathing comment piece on the level of debate ahead of the British referendum. “On the island they are writing history – but in mud”, the paper’s deputy editor Nikolaus Blome writes. “It’s a toxic mix of misrepresentations, half-truths and folly.” He goes on:

It is a disgrace, not worthy of politicians, the media and all proud Britons. Because it is they who once taught Europe how to conduct intelligent political debate and what an enlightened, pragmatic democracy looks like.

The Daily Mail’s Jason Groves says Tom Watson seems to have changed his mind about free movement of labour since last Friday.

According to the BBC, this is what the pro-Brexit Labour MP John Mann is saying about Tom Watson’s statement on the need to review free movement of labour rules. (See 3.29pm.)

While it is welcome that they are finally admitting that uncontrolled migration is a problem, the truth is that they still have no solutions. If Cameron’s ‘renegotiation’ told us one thing, it is that the EU will not move on this founding principle.

Around 16% of pupils in England did not get into their first choice of secondary school this year, according to figures out today.

In a Vote Leave press statement the employment minister Priti Patel says:

The shortage of school places - with one in six children in England missing out on a place at their top choice of secondary school - is yet another example of how uncontrolled migration is putting unsustainable pressures on our public services. Education is one of the most important things that government delivers, and it’s deeply regrettable that so many families and young people have been let down in this way.

TNS have now published details of their new poll. It was supposed to be embargoed, but the headline findings were published early on Twitter.

Here are the key findings.

Remain: 40%

Leave: 47%

Undecided/would not vote: 13%

TNS polled 2,497 people online.

This is from Luke Taylor, head of social and political attitudes at TNS UK.

It should be noted that among the entire general public the picture is more balanced with 33% supporting Remain, 35% supporting Leave and 32% undecided or planning not to vote.

Taking into account likelihood to vote and whether or not people are registered to vote, benefits ‘Leave’ over ‘Remain’. In particular, our turnout model penalises younger people and those that did not vote in the previous general election, as historically these groups are less likely to vote. However, this model is based on general elections and as this is a referendum turnout among these groups may be higher than expected, boosting the Remain score.

Furthermore, while this poll presents a substantial lead for ‘Leave’ over ‘Remain’ among those voters that have now made up their minds, the proportion selecting ‘Leave’ is still a minority of all voters. There are still many undecided voters out there and the history of referendums suggests that they will largely opt for the status quo.

This swing towards Leave since our last poll in late May might be due to a genuine change in opinion among voters but it could also be due to random error.

Here is more on recent EU referendum polling.

Nigel Farage signs vote leave boards during his party’s referendum Brexit battlebus tour in Kingston, London, today.
Nigel Farage signs vote leave boards during his party’s referendum Brexit battlebus tour in Kingston, London, today. Photograph: Lauren Hurley/PA

TNS poll gives Leave a 7-point lead

TNS has got a new EU opinion poll out. It was supposed to be embargoed until later, but the academic Matthew Goodwin has posted the figures on Twitter.

Tristram Hunt, the Labour MP and former shadow education secretary, agrees with Tom Watson on the need for the EU’s free movement of labour rules to be reviewed.(See 3.29pm.)

Watson says EU free movement of labour rules may need revising

Here is the full quote from Tom Watson, Labour’s deputy leader, saying free movement of labour in the EU may have to be curbed in future. He told the BBC:

For the last decade I would say immigration has been the backdrop to every election we’ve had in Britain. Woe betide politicians who don’t listen to what voters tell them.

And that’s a familiar story across Europe as well, you know, if you look at Germany or Austria or other European countries. I think what we have to say, I did say the immigration issue was complicated, I think what we have to reassure people is that if they vote remain on Thursday June 23, that isn’t the end of the reform package for Europe. I think a future Europe will have to look at things like the free movement of labour rules.

According to the New Statesman’s George Eaton, Jeremy Corbyn’s office is trying to downplay the significance of this.

It is clear from the quote that Watson was going further than Corbyn’s spokesman is implying. However, according to another source, Watson was not trying to float new policy ahead of the referendum. He made his remark at the end of a relatively long interview, and he was just making a general point about the future. He was also arguing that Britain could end up being affected by free movement rules even if it left the EU (as Norway is) and that therefore it needs to remain in to have a say over how they develop, the source says.

In his speech Jeremy Corbyn criticised Arron Banks, the Leave.EU co-founder, for wanting to privatise the NHS. (See 1.10am.)

Banks has hit back with a statement. He said:

Fat cat my arse. I started my business with nothing but a desk and two phones, and I’ve never worn a fur coat or owned a Bentley.

I once said that I thought wealthier people should pay top-up insurance to help the NHS – the sort of policy which should be music to Jeremy’s ears.

You have to feel sorry for old Jez, really. Voted to leave in ‘75, voted against Maastricht, voted against Lisbon – but now the Blairites have got him supping cream from the same EU bowl as Cameron, Osborne and the crooked mega-banks who are the real fat cats in this referendum, drooling at the prospect of being able to buy up huge chunks of the health service after Brussels finalises its dodgy TTIP deal with the US.

Lunchtime summary

How dare hard right Tories and UKIP pose as NHS champions.

Let’s be honest, they love the NHS in the way that Dracula loves a blood bank.

Does anyone really believe that Boris Johnson cares about the NHS?

The same Boris Johnson who is on record as saying he doesn’t believe in a free NHS; and that if people paid for services, they would value them more ...

So do we trust the leaders of the Leave campaign to have the best interests of the NHS at heart?

Not on your life.

I can sum them up in just three words.

Fibbers, fakes and phonies.

And Prentis said in his speech:

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a national campaign as grubby and deceitful as the one being waged by the Brexiteers.

The likes of Michael Gove and Boris Johnson have been rampant cheerleaders for eye-watering austerity. Yet now they masquerade as the friend of public servant and public service user.

  • Tom Watson, Labour’s deputy leader, has suggested that Labour would back curbs on freedom of movement for EU migrants.

Watson was speaking after Ed Balls, the former shadow chancellor, used an article in the Mirror to say Labour should “press Europe to ... put new controls on economic migration”.

  • The pound has fallen further and Britain’s blue chip share index has tumbled below the 6,000 level for the first time in nearly four months as the latest polls suggested record support for Brexit. As the Press Association reports, around £87bn has been wiped off the value of FTSE 100 companies in less than a week as mounting Brexit fears have sent investors heading for the exit. London’s FTSE 100 was more than 1% lower after hefty falls in the previous session, tumbling below 6,000 for the first time since February, while the pound dropped nearly a cent to 1.41 dollars after hitting two month lows against the US dollar and euro on Monday.
  • John Longworth, the former head of the British Chambers of Commerce, has told MPs that some British firms have given up on training their staff because of the “unlimited” supply of migrant labour from the EU. Giving evidence to a Commons committee he said:

One of the things that concerns me about immigration, and I had this discussion with the governor of the Bank of England a number of times last year, was about the downward pressure on wages in the UK which, at this point in the economic cycle, should be rising now. I think, for people in the country, that’s one of the big concerns.

Secondly, I think it’s having an impact on skills training. We have over half a million unemployed under-25s, which is a national scandal. A lot of corporates really gave up training. If you’ve got an unlimited supply of cheap labour from the EU, you don’t really need to bother training people.

  • Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has said a vote to leave the EU could lead to a fundamental realignment of British politics. On a campaign visit he said:

I think, potentially, the effects of this referendum on the Conservative party, the Labour party, Ukip, could be very profound. We could see a big reshaping.

He also claimed Labour was “utterly disconnected” with its supporters.

I’ve been to the real Labour heartlands in this country and, let me tell you, the Labour party is utterly disconnected with a very large chunk of its roots.

Updated

Corbyn's NHS speech - Snap verdict:

Corbyn’s NHS speech - Snap verdict: Jeremy Corbyn is never particularly comfortable attacking Brexit per se. But he is sincere and passionate when it comes to denouncing Tory Brexit - what would happen if Britain were to leave the EU, with a rightwing Conservative government left in charge - and so today, after making some generalised remarks about the value of the EU to workers (see 12.38pm), he gave a full speech arguing it was important to vote to remain because Brexit would damage the NHS.

David Cameron and George Osborne have also been making this argument, but they have been doing so on the grounds that Brexit would trigger a recession which would hurt the NHS because government finances would suffer. Corbyn does not seem happy to deploy this argument - on Sunday his ally, John McDonnell, said claims about the impact of Brexit on the economy were “exaggerated”- and instead he concentrated on arguing that the NHS would be at risk because the Leave campaign is led by ideological rightwingers who are not committed to socialised healthcare. (See 1.10pm.)

This is true up to a point and Corbyn made the point effectively. But it did feel like a speech of only partial relevance to the EU referendum campaign. It is all very well trying to turn the referendum into a vote on the future of the NHS, but with so many other big issues at stake that is a mighty hard ask, and it did sound instead as if Corbyn was re-fighting the general election instead of focusing on the matter of Britain’s relationship with the EU.

Updated

Jeremy Corbyn posing for photographs after his NHS speech
Jeremy Corbyn posing for photographs after his NHS speech. Photograph: Reuters

Corbyn praises the role EU migrants play in the NHS.

Fifty-two thousand EU nationals work in our NHS, as doctors, nurses and physiotherapists. They contribute to our country and save our lives.

EU nationals are 4.7 percent of our population. Yet they are five percent of NHS nurses and ten percent of NHS doctors.

If you care about our NHS, don’t just listen me, listen to NHS staff – every NHS workers’ union and royal college is backing Remain.

And now he’s wrapping up.

The risk to the NHS if we vote Leave is the damage to public finances caused by a hit to our economy, and the risk to our NHS by a victory for those who would scrap a universal NHS - free at the point of use.

The NHS is a force for civilisation. If, like us, you care about our health service, then listen to the dedicated staff here today, dedicated to the NHS and dedicated to remaining in Europe.

Please use your vote on 23 June to Remain and protect our NHS.

Corbyn cites the Tory MP Sarah Wollaston to back his case.

It’s not just me or Labour that is saying this, Dr Sarah Wollaston, a Conservative MP and a former GP was until last week supporting the Leave campaign.

This is what she had to say: “I could not have set foot on a battle bus that has at the heart of its campaign a figure that I know to be untrue”. Dr Sarah Woollaston is now voting for Remain, she said she feared what would happen to the NHS if we left what she called the “Brexit penalty”.

Corbyn repeats his call for the NHS to be excluded from TTIP, the transatlantic trade and investment partnership (the proposed EU/US trade deal). As it stands, Labour would veto TTIP, he says.

And he attacks Vote Leave for its claims about leaving the EU freeing up more money for the NHS.

The Vote Leave bus said “we send the EU £350m a week, let’s fund the NHS instead”.

There’s a couple of problems with that, firstly the UK Statistics Authority says that slogan is “misleading” and told them to stop using it.

The UK Statistics Authority is diplomatic when they say “misleading”, they mean dishonest. It’s an outright lie, and they know it.

And they’ve since been forced to re-paint the bus.

Does anyone really believe that those from the hard right of the Tories and Ukip would spend any extra funds on the NHS?

Updated

Corbyn says leading Leave figures 'don’t even want there to be an NHS'

Corbyn attacks the government’s record on the NHS.

And he says the NHS would be even worse if the leaders of the Leave side had their way. Many of them do not want an NHS, he says.

That crisis would be even worse if many on the Leave side had their way. People who have argued against the NHS and free healthcare on demand in principle. These same people now have the audacity to portray themselves as the saviours of the NHS. Most of the Leave side – the Tory right and Ukip – don’t even want there to be an NHS.

The millionaire funder of the Leave side, Arron Banks said: “If it were up to me, I’d privatise the NHS.”

Nigel Farage called for an insurance-based system to replace the NHS

Michael Gove is co-author of a book that says the NHS is “no longer relevant in the 21st century”. A book which calls for the NHS to be replaced by a new system of health provision in which people would pay money into individual health accounts.

And Boris Johnson, who said: “If people have to pay for NHS services, they will value them more”.

(The Gove claim is based on this Observer about a book primarily written by Daniel Hannan, the Tory MEP, which includes a quote from Gove saying he does not agree with Hannan’s proposal to replace the NHS with an insurance system.)

Updated

Corbyn's NHS speech

Jeremy Corbyn is now speaking.

He says before he became an MP he represented NHS staff as a NUPE representative.

And the NHS is under threat if we leave, he says.

We have a big decision on 23 June, I value our NHS and admire the dedication of all its staff. I would not be voting for Remain if I thought there was any risk to our NHS whatsoever, the risk to the NHS is if we leave.

Jeremy Corbyn.
Jeremy Corbyn Photograph: Reuters

Emily Maclean, a student midwife, is speaking now. She says giving birth should be a stress-free occasion. We should not gamble with the NHS, she says.

Emily Maclean.
Emily Maclean. Photograph: Reuters

At the Labour event we are now getting speeches from union leaders about the case for staying in the EU. It isn’t just a photo call (although that is what the Labour op note said.)

Frances O’Grady, the TUC general secretary, gave a speech describing the leaders of the Leave campaign as “fibbers, fakes and phonies”.

And Dave Prentis, the Unison general secretary, is speaking now. He says he has never seen as a dishonest election campaign as Leave’s.

Dave Prentis.
Dave Prentis. Photograph: Reuters

Here are some more pictures from the Labour event.

Jeremy Corbyn with senior Labour figures and trade unionists at the Labour In for Britain event.
Jeremy Corbyn with senior Labour figures and trade unionists at the Labour In for Britain event. Photograph: Dylan Martinez/Reuters
Corbyn with Labour and trade union figures.
Corbyn with Labour and trade union figures. Photograph: Dylan Martinez/Reuters
Corbyn being applauded by other senior members of the party and trade unionists.
Corbyn being applauded by other senior members of the party and trade unionists. Photograph: Dylan Martinez/Reuters

Journalists got a round of applause at the Labour event.

Corbyn says Labour making 'the strongest case we can' for staying in EU

The Labour event was billed by the party in advance as a “Labour In for Britain shadow cabinet event”. The party said there would a photo opportunity and “short remarks” by Jeremy Corbyn (ie, not a speech).

This is what Corbyn said in full.

This is a coming together of the Labour shadow cabinet, the general secretaries and members of the general council of the TUC and many members of our party’s national executive. This is the Labour movement saying we are voting to remain in the European Union next week.

We’re saying that because we want to defend the very many gains made by trade unions across Europe that have brought us better working conditions, longer holidays, less discrimination and maternity and paternity leave.

We believe that a leave vote will put many of those things seriously, immediately at risk. Many in work will be significantly worse off when the bonfire of regulations promised by others take place.

But we also want to extend those rights. We best extend those rights by working with trade unions, Labour parties, socialist parties, all across Europe in the interests of the working people of the whole continent and of course this country.

We’re making the strongest case we can. From Land’s End to John O’Groats, from Norwich to North Wales, we are making the case everywhere that staying in the European Union gives us the opportunity to defend and extend the rights of people in work. It gives us the jobs that we need and the exports that we must fulfil as a country to the rest of Europe. Therefore we are making the strongest case we can, for the good of the ordinary people of this country, to vote to remain, to give us that voice to try and improve rights and justice, in this country and all across Europe.

It’s the Labour position, it’s the trade union position, to vote to remain. That’s why we’ve come together here today to share our values, to share our determination, to share our strength, and we urge all of our supporters to think very carefully about this and to vote to remain next Thursday on 23rd.

In his final sentence there was a curious echo of what the Queen said ahead of the Scottish referendum. Doubtless it was unintentional.

Jeremy Corbyn with senior Labour figures posing for a photograph at a Labour In for Britain event.
Jeremy Corbyn with senior Labour figures posing for a photograph at a Labour In for Britain event. Photograph: Dylan Martinez/Reuters

This is from my colleague Rowena Mason.

Corbyn says this represents a coming together of the Labour party.

They are making the case for the EU all over the country, he says. They are making the strongest case they can.

They want to remain so they can improve rights and help workers.

He says he urges all Labour supporters to think carefully about this and to vote to remain.

Labour's In for Britain event

Jeremy Corbyn is now speaking at the Labour In for Britain event.

He has just been posing for a photograph with members of the shadow cabinet and union leaders.

Vote Leave has now released the full text of its open letter promising to maintain funding to people and institutions who currently received EU money (ie, farmers, scientists etc). Priti Patel was on the Today programme earlier talking about this. (See 8.53am.)

The letter, signed by 13 ministers and senior Tories, also claimed that leaving the EU could theoretically save the UK up to £43bn because it would allow the government to pass legislation saying the UK would no longer be bound by European court of justice rulings forcing HM Revenue and Customs to pay tax refunds. It says:

There are also many other costs, direct and indirect, of EU membership on top of our official contributions to the EU’s budget.

For example, the UK is set to pay out between £7 billion and £43 billion by 2021 in tax refunds to big businesses which have successfully used the European Court and EU law to escape taxes lawfully imposed on them in Britain. If we stay, these bills will be paid for by British taxpayers on P.A.Y.E. instead of that money going to public services. If we Vote Leave, the Government will pass legislation to prevent these payments being made so that taxpayers are not given these huge bills.

These figures are taken from government and HMRC accounts setting out HMRC’s contingent liabilities, the amount it might have to pay if it loses legal cases in the future.

A separate Vote Leave briefing note gives more details. Here’s an extract.

Rulings of the European court have exposed the taxpayer to massive liabilities for tax refunds to big businesses. The OBR now forecasts that HMRC will pay out £7.3bn from 2016-2017 to 2020-2021, an average of £270.43 per household (OBR, March 2016; ONS, 5 November 2015). If HMRC also loses every case currently pending (a further £35.6bn), the UK will be forced to pay out £42.9bn, the equivalent of £1,589 per household (HMRC, 16 July 2015; ONS, 5 November 2015).

The UK has tried to block these payouts before but its tax legislation has been overruled by the European court (Test Claimants in the Franked Investment Income Group Litigation v Commissioners of Inland Revenue, Case C-362/12; Commission v United Kingdom, Case C-640/13). If we vote remain, the European court will continue to take control over our tax system and require multibillion payouts to the multinational businesses.

Here is Iain Duncan Smith, the former work and pensions secretary, commenting on today’s European court of justice ruling backing Britain’s right to refuse to pay family welfare benefits to unemployed EU migrants who have been in Britain for less than five years. In a statement put out by Vote Leave he said:

It’s absurd that we have to to run every nut and bolt of domestic policy past Luxembourg, and then engage in lengthy and expensive court battles if they decide they don’t like what our democratically elected government is doing.

As well as the cost to taxpayers of fighting these lengthy drawn out cases, it’s clearly an illegitimate challenge to our sovereignty. Although David Cameron didn’t want to admit it, this case and others like it are proof positive that the unelected European court of justice is now supreme above our elected parliament. They decide the rules and the only way to prevent this kind of intervention in future is to Vote Leave on 23 June.

With Labour’s shadow cabinet EU event due to start in about half an hour, here is an extract from Rachel Sylvester’s column in the Times (paywall) today on the party and the EU referendum.

It is Labour voters who will determine the outcome next week. According to a senior source at the Stronger In campaign, Tory voters are likely to account for a Remain vote of about 19 per cent, Lib Dems and Greens another 10 per cent and the SNP about 2 per cent, making a total of 31 per cent. That means that the prime minister is dependent on Labour voters to get over the required 50 per cent. Strategists have calculated that they need at least two-thirds of Labour supporters to vote Remain to be sure of victory. But — despite the vast majority of Labour MPs wanting to stay in — almost half of its voters do not know the party’s position ...

Another MP says that Labour voters in his area are breaking 55-45 for Out. “It’s terrible. The proverbial metropolitan elite has not been recognising the impact that rapid population change has had on the public services. And Labour is ducking this issue.”

The truth is that the referendum is exposing Labour’s breach with its traditional voters in a way that has profound implications for the country as well as the party. In Birmingham, campaigners were told to take all mentions of immigration out of their literature. Although the local MPs begged to be allowed to tackle local concerns head on, they were banned from doing so by party staff following instructions from the leader’s office. As one former minister says: “It gives the impression that we are completely out of touch with the way people live their lives.”

The Labour party has deliberately chosen not to campaign alongside pro-EU Tories in the referendum campaign because of what happened to the party in Scotland after 2014. But, in an article for Newsweek, Matthew Laza, a former aide to Ed Miliband, argues this has been a “fatal mistake”.

Here’s an extract.

Yes, there was a case for Labour maintaining a separate and distinct role in the campaign. After Labour’s crushing 2015 general election defeat, it was clear that Cameron, and more specifically Osborne, were going to set the tone and direction of the “Remain” campaign, with scant regard to social democratic sensibilities.

But by completely opting out of the collective effort Labour wrote itself out of the argument. And in doing so removed itself from the main arena where that argument would be held—the TV news bulletins. As the person brought in to sort out Labour’s approach to TV before the last election, it has broken my heart to see our view so roundly frozen out. With no Labour figure centre-stage the battle of the airwaves became, as the cliché now goes, an exclusively “blue on blue” war as clips of Conservative in-fighting dominated the broadcasts.

Clegg's wife Miriam Gonzalez Durantez attacks Cameron's 'Mickey Mouse [EU] negotiation'

Miriam Gonzalez Durantez, Nick Clegg’s wife, has launched a caustic attack on David Cameron’s EU renegotiation. Speaking at the annual Fortune Most Powerful Woman International Summit in London this morning, Gonzalez Durantez, a lawyer, said:

This is a club where everybody gets a say. You cannot be there and expect that others are going to reform it for you. I am all in favour of reform. The European Union is crying for reform. Proper reform. Not that Mickey Mouse negotiation that the prime minister did. The biggest reform that the EU needs is growth. We need growth in Europe.

She also said that she though the UK was “sleepwalking towards disaster” because it might vote for Brexit.

I believe that this country is sleep walking towards disaster. It will not only be a disaster in this country it will be a disaster for Europe and across the whole world. In my life I have never gone through another moment when I have thought we are in the history books.

Miriam Gonzalez Durantez.
Miriam Gonzalez Durantez. Photograph: Ray Tang/REX Shutterstock

For more on what voters in Labour areas are saying about the EU referendum, Polly Toynbee’s column in the Guardian today is also a must read. Here’s an excerpt.

Inside Labour’s London HQ, I joined young volunteers manning the “Labour In” phones with every fact at the ready. We had sheets of Labour-supporting names to call in Nottinghamshire – and the results were grim. “Out”, “Out” and “Out” in call after call, only a couple for remain. “I’ve been Labour all my life, but I’m for leave,” they said. Why? Always the same – immigrants first; that mythical £350m saving on money sent to Brussels second; “I want my country back” third. And then there is, “I don’t know ANYONE voting in.”

Try arguing with facts and you get nowhere. Warn these Labour people what a Johnson/Gove government would do and they don’t care. Warn about the loss of workers’ rights and they don’t listen – maybe that’s already irrelevant to millions in crap jobs such as at Uber or Sports Direct. “We’re full up. Sorry, there’s no room for more. Can’t get GP appointments, can’t get into our schools, no housing.” If you tell these Labour voters that’s because of Tory austerity cuts, still they blame “immigrants getting everything first”. Warn about a Brexit recession leading to far worse cuts and they just say, “Stop them coming, make room for our own first.”

And here’s her column in full.

Here’s Alistair Darling, the former Labour chancellor, responding to the Vote Leave spending pledge today.

This is fantasy economics from the leave campaign as quitting Europe would wreck Britain’s economy and mean cuts to spending on vital public services, as just about every economic expert has said.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has said leaving would lead to a £40bn blackhole in the public finances and nine out of ten economists say leaving would damage the economy.

My colleague John Harris has been to Stoke-on-Trent, a Labour stronghold, to ask what people think about the EU referendum for his latest Anywhere but Westminster video. He has found huge support there for Leave.

Do watch it; it’s very, very good.

The Labour supporters backing Brexit in Stoke-on-Trent heartland

Here is Marley Morris, a research fellow at the IPPR thinktank, commenting on the ECJ’s ruling this morning. (See 9.23am.)

This decision by the European Court of Justice is another sign – on top of other recent judgments – that it is becoming more sympathetic to the UK’s interpretation of free movement rules.

And here is the IPPR’s assessment of what this decision means for the EU referendum.

Nine days ahead of the referendum, this judgment is likely to be picked up by both campaigns. On the one hand, the judgment shows that the EU’s free movement rules do not prevent member states from taking action to block access to benefits for migrants who have been in the UK for less than five years and are not economically active and cannot support themselves. It also strengthens the argument that the future reforms to free movement and welfare rules – as agreed in the EU renegotiation – will not be rolled back by the EU court.

But, despite the judgment going in the UK’s favour, it is likely to also remind voters that aspects of the UK’s welfare system are subject to EU law.

Alan Johnson's Today interview - Verdict from the Twitter commentariat

And this is what political journalists are saying about Alan Johnson’s Today interview.

From the Financial Times’s Jim Pickard

From the New Statesman’s George Eaton

From the Sun’s Harry Cole

From the Daily Mail’s Isabel Oakeshott

Alan Johnson says Brexit would make immigration situation worse

Alan Johnson, chair of Labour In for Britain, was also on the Today programme this morning. Here are the key points from his interview.

  • Johnson rejected claims that Labour had been unwilling to talk about immigration.

We’ve talked about immigration all the way through this by the way. Sometimes people haven’t been listening to us ...

  • He said leaving the EU would make the immigration situation worse.

The argument we’re making is, look, there’s three types of immigration: there’s immigration from outside the EU, there’s illegal immigration, and there’s free movement. Of those, free movement gives us the benefit of the single market.

Our argument is remaining part of the single market helps us to control the other two forms of immigration. If we leave, the situation is going to be worse. We won’t be protected by the Dublin Accord. If anyone believes that our UK border in Calais is going to survive us leaving the EU then once again they’re in the realms of fantasy. Of course it won’t, that will make the issue much worse.

  • He said anyone worried about Turkey joining the EU should vote to stay in, because the UK would have a veto on Turkish accession.
  • He said Vote Leave were not in a position to promise extra spending (see 8.25am and 8.53am) because Brexdit would trigger a downturn that would cut government tax receipts.

Now, Vote Leave say in their latest fantasy economics, ‘we’re going to give all this money back’. That money won’t exist; it only takes a 0.6% movement in our wealth, GDP only has to be hit by just over half a percent, to eradicate the £8bn – not £19bn that they were claiming – the £8bn that is sent to Europe and distributed through farming subsidies et cetera. And losing our access to the biggest commercial market in the world, turning our back on something we created is going to damage our economy, that’s going to damage public finances, that is going to hit our public services.

  • He rejected claims that Labour MPs were out of touch with the views of their supporters on immigration.
  • He rejected claims that people did not believe the warnings from experts about the economic impact of Brexit.

I’ve taken the quotes from PoliticsHome.

Alan Johnson.
Alan Johnson. Photograph: Dominic Lipinski/PA

Updated

ECJ backs UK's right to limit migrants' access to child benefits

The European court of justice has ruled in favour of the UK in the case about whether the government has the right to refuse child benefit and child tax credits to EU citizens who do not have a “right of residence”. The challenge was brought by the European commission.

My colleague Roy Greenslade has written about the Sun’s decision to come out for Brexit this morning.

Here’s his conclusion.

What difference will it make? Precious little. The overwhelming majority of the Sun’s readers who have decided to vote on 23 June have already made up their minds where to play their cross.

But the Sun’s statement certainly has a symbolic importance and it is likely to give the jitters to the already nervous Cameron and his Remain campaigners.

And here’s his article in full.

Priti Patel's Today interview - Verdict from the Twitter commentariat

And this is what political journalists are saying about Priti Patel’s Today interview. (See 8.53am.)

From the Guardian’s Michael White

From ITV’s Chris Ship

From the BBC’s Sima Kotecha

From the Guardian columnist Giles Fraser (a Leave campaigner)

From the former Independent reporter Andy McSmith

From ITV’s Libby Wiener

Britain Stronger in Europe have accused Priti Patel of peddling “fantasy economics”.

Patel seeks to clarify Vote Leave spending plans

Priti Patel, the pro-Brexit employment minister, was on the Today programme earlier talking about the Vote Leave promise that people and organisations that currently receive EU funding would not lose out if Britain votes to leave. (See 8.25am.) Mishal Husain was interviewing her, and Patel was on the defensive throughout.

Here are the key points.

  • Patel ducked questions about what authority Vote Leave has to make promises about what the government will do in the event of Brexit. When it was put to Patel that David Cameron and George Osborne might be in charge, and that they might have different priorities, Patel said it would be up to the government to choose.

We are clearly saying that if we take back control of that money, we can spend it on a range of our priorities, the ones that I’ve listed today.

  • Patel claimed that Vote Leave was only making two new specific spending promises: to give an extra £100m per week to the NHS, and to cut VAT on fuel. But Husain said that, given the UK’s net contribution to the EU was £161m per week, the NHS pledge meant there would only be an extra £60m per week to distribute. She said Vote Leave campaigners had made other spending proposals too. Here’s a key exchange.

MH: Out of that £60m a week, how much would you spend on the sorts of things your campaign has talked about, which include school places, new roads, VAT on fuel, John Redwood has talked about tax cuts?

PP: Let me be very clear about this. We have not said that we would spent money on those items that you have listed. We have said that we would spend British taxpayers’ money on a range of priorities, including the NHS and in particular as well on [cutting] VAT on fuel. Those are the two areas, let me be clear about this, that we have said we would spend that money on.

When pressed again about whether the new roads or extra school places might materialise, Patel replied:

Well, of course those would be options and choices for the government of the day to make.

  • Patel rejected claims that leaving the EU would cause a hit to the economy, damaging growth and cutting government tax revenues. She said there would be more economic growth after Brexit.
Priti Patel speaking at a Vote Leave rally.
Priti Patel speaking at a Vote Leave rally. Photograph: Neil Hall/Reuters

Vote Leave says recipients of EU grants would not lose money after Brexit

Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Claire.

This morning Vote Leave is saying that people and organisations in the UK that receive EU grants would continue to receive funding if Britain leaves the EU until 2020. An open letter signed by Michael Gove, Boris Johnson and Priti Patel says:

There is more than enough money to ensure that those who now get funding from the EU - including universities, scientists, family farmers, regional funds, cultural organisations and others - will continue to do so while also ensuring that we save money that can be spent on our priorities.

If the public votes to leave on 23 June, we will continue to fund EU programmes in the UK until 2020, or up to the date when the EU is due to conclude individual programmes if that is earlier than 2020.

The letter also says there would be extra money for the NHS.

After protecting those now in receipt of EU funding, we will still have billions more to spend on our priorities.

We propose that at least £5.5bn of that be spent on the NHS by 2020, giving it a much-needed 100m per week cash transfusion, and to use £1.7bn to abolish VAT on household energy bills.

This is another example of Vote Leave starting to make pledges as if they were an alternative government.

On a related theme, the Guardian’s economics editor, Larry Elliott, has carried out a reality check on claims that Brexit would weaken sterling.

His conclusion?

Everything hangs on how the Bank of England reacts in a post-Brexit world. If the Bank is worried about the risk of recession, it might see a fall in the value of sterling as helpful, because it would boost growth.

But prolonged panic-selling of the pound might force Threadneedle Street to raise interest rates to dampen inflationary pressure and to discourage capital flight.

Read the full workings here:

Over on the business live blog, with my colleague Graeme Wearden, Brexit-related ripples are making themselves felt:

The City is getting increasingly agitated about the prospect of Brexit.

The pound is taking the brunt of this, being buffeted by the latest opinion polls which have shown a steady move towards leaving the EU.

Analysts expect a lot more volatility over the next few weeks. And that’s why the Bank of England is offering the City fresh liquidity today, to help them handle any turmoil.

This morning, in a delicate bit of scheduling, the European court of justice will rule on whether Britain is entitled to refuse child benefit and child tax credits to some EU migrants.

It’s expected that the court will come down on the side of the UK and against the European commission, which has challenged the policy, my colleague Alan Travis reports:

The ruling from the European court of justice is expected to confirm that Britain can insist that only EU citizens with a lawful ‘right of residence’ in the UK can claim social security benefits.

The European commission claimed that the decision by Britain to impose a right of residence test to access certain family benefits amounted to direct discrimination against citizens of other EU member states.

The ruling is expected to the first of several legal challenges to Britain’s attempt to curb what David Cameron has called ‘benefit tourism’ and restrict the impact of the EU’s freedom of movement rules on the UK.

The Polish government and others are expected to challenge Cameron’s emergency brake mechanism, under which new EU migrants will be denied access to in-work welfare benefits and tax credits during their first four years in the UK.

As David Cameron continues to keep his distance from efforts to whip up the remain vote, it’s another Labour day today, with Jeremy Corbyn in the forefront.

He’ll speak in central London this lunchtime and will urge Labour voters to stay in:

Today I am issuing a call to the whole Labour movement to persuade people to back remain to protect jobs and rights at work.

We have just nine days to go to convince Labour supporters to vote remain.

Corbyn is due to be flanked by his entire shadow cabinet and the leaders of 11 trade unions as he makes his appeal – which comes a day after shadow defence secretary Emily Thornberry said the prime minister needed to step back:

There are plenty of good people now who can make the case; we really don’t need to keep hearing from David Cameron … Plenty of women!

Emily Thornberry campaigns with Harriet Harman in Walsall yesterday.
Emily Thornberry campaigns with Harriet Harman in Walsall yesterday. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

Angela Eagle, the shadow business secretary, agreed, saying:

This whole thing is about Tory big beasts having a battle like rutting stags, but it’s far more important, this vote, than any of that.

Trevor Kavanagh, the Sun’s associate editor, is on the Today programme to talk about today’s front page. He says the decision to back Brexit didn’t surprise him.

We have learned to our cost in the past that the European Union does what it wants – it says one thing and does another …

The democratic deficit is the biggest black mark against the European Union.

Despite the paper’s editorial calling the prime minister “witless”, Kavanagh did not think it contradicted the Sun’s call in 2015 for readers to vote for him:

They are two separate issues: last time we had a choice between David Cameron and Ed Miliband …

[Cameron] has made a lot of serious mistakes and been weak in his negotiations with the European Union … He has failed to get those fundamental reforms.

Had he come back with something substantive on the issue of immigration and border control and serious reform on welfare … I might have even been tempted myself [to vote remain].

Will it be the Sun wot wins it?

We can only say what we believe … A lot of our readers do believe what we say … [but] they’ve come to that conclusion themselves.

And quizzed on whether the decision to back Brexit was taken by the Sun’s proprietor, Rupert Murdoch – something Kavanagh himself (perhaps jokingly) talked about a couple of months ago – he was adamant:

The decision was made by the editor.

Morning briefing

Good morning and welcome to our daily EU referendum coverage.

Once again, I’m starting your day with the morning briefing and steering the live blog until Andrew Sparrow takes his seat. Do come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.

The big picture

Leave campaigners will be starting their Tuesday with a spring in their step, in the wake of polls putting Brexit ahead and an unambiguous page one from the Sun: “BeLEAVE in Britain.”

The front-page editorial reads:

If we stay, Britain will be engulfed in a few short years by this relentlessly expanding, German-dominated federal state. For all David Cameron’s witless assurances, our powers and values WILL be further eroded …

The Remain campaign, made up of the corporate establishment, arrogant europhiles and foreign banks, have set out to terrify us all about life outside the EU. Their ‘Project Fear’ strategy predicts mass unemployment, soaring interest rates and inflation, plummeting house prices, even world war …

Nonsense! Years ago the same politicians and economists issued apocalyptic predictions about our fate if we didn’t join the euro. Thank God we stopped that.

Interested in the background to the declaration? Read what Trevor Kavanagh, the paper’s associate editor, said in March when asked who would make the decision. (Spoiler alert: it’s Rupert Murdoch.)

The bad news keeps coming for the Bremainers, with new polls putting them behind leave. Two Guardian/ICM polls on Monday gave Brexit a six-point lead in both phone and online surveys, with 47% for stay and 53% for go.

An ORB poll for the Telegraph concurs, albeit with a smaller lead for leave, on 49% to remain’s 48% among those certain to vote.

And a new YouGov poll for the Times has leave on 46%, remain on 39%, undecideds on 11%, and abstainers on 4%. Excluding those last two groups takes the result to 54%-46% in favour of leave.

That poll also found majority support for Brexit among female voters and those aged 25-49, a twist on previous surveys.

The result of all this? Panic in the remain camp – or so says Boris Johnson, Vote Leave champion, anyway. He told the Sun:

What we have seen in the last few days in particular is more and more panic by the In camp … They are panicked about people suddenly looking up, lifting their eyes to the horizon and feeling a sense of confidence and excitement about what Britain can do.

A remain campaign source also told the Guardian that No 10 had shifted from being “utterly convinced” of victory to “blind panic”.

It’s not all back-slapping in the leave camp either, though, as Leave.EU – the non-official, Ukip-leaning campaign group – already lambasted for a tasteless tweet linking the massacre in Orlando to EU membership, persisted with another (grammatically poor) attempt to entwine the two:

You should also know:

We need to press Europe to restore proper borders, and put new controls on economic migration.

Poll position

So where do these new polls leave us? With leave two points ahead, according to the FT’s poll of polls:

What UK Thinks, based on the six most recent polls, has leave on a four-point lead, 52% v 48%.

Diary

  • That ECJ ruling on benefits for EU workers comes at 9.30am.
  • At noon, Jeremy Corbyn addresses the shadow cabinet; and at 12.30 the Labour leader makes a speech to the TUC on why the NHS is safer in the EU, alongside TUC general secretary Frances O’Grady and other union chiefs.
  • Ken Livingstone appears in front of MPs on the home affairs select committee on antisemitism at 2pm.
  • A run of debates this evening sees Boris Johnson and Priti Patel for leave take on Alex Salmond and Liz Kendall for remain in a Telegraph/YouTube event at 7pm.
  • At the same time, education secretary Nicky Morgan and Ukip MP Douglas Carswell take part in a Jewish News Europe debate in London.
  • And at 9pm in Birmingham, it’s a BBC Newsbeat/1Xtra debate in front of 80 young voters.
Liz Kendall.
Liz Kendall. Photograph: Carl Court/Getty Images

Talking point

The vexed question of who exactly is the establishment has dogged this campaign. Are the elites the politicians and business figures who want the UK to stay in the EU, or the politicians and business figures who want it to go? Boris Johnson (Eton, Oxford), for one, has banged on about the “elites” backing In, presumably including the prime minister (Eton, Oxford).

George Osborne has now taken aim, too, declaring that:

Brexit is for the richest in our country – they can afford recessions.

(Osborne also suggested Brexit could lead to cuts to support for disabled people – something he’d hate to do, of course.)

Vote Leave also has the rich in its sights, querying why Brussels officials have been spending so much on private jets, luxury hotels and a chauffeur service.

A new poster from Operation Black Vote, designed to encourage turnout on 23 June, is, though, a stark reminder that many of those at the head of both campaigns literally are in the same (Bullingdon) club.

Poster from Operation Black Voters recreating the Bullingdon Club image featuring David Cameron and Boris Johnson

Read these

Stephanie Bodoni at Bloomberg says the timing of today’s European Court of Justice ruling on benefits for EU workers in Britain “couldn’t be more delicate”:

A defeat for the UK government on such a red-hot topic would be a shot in the arm for the Leave camp days before a referendum on the country’s European Union membership. Even a victory would remind Eurosceptic voters that judges in Luxembourg rather than London call the shots …

‘Clearly if the court were to rule against the UK on this subject, the Leave side would, to use colloquial English, try to make hay with it,’ said [Professor John Curtice at Strathclyde University]. ‘They will say that is just the kind of thing that the EU does, it goes to show we can’t make our own rules, etc. It would be rather embarrassing for the Remain side, if that were to happen.’

Henry Mance and George Parker, in the Financial Times, have this profile of Dominic Cummings, Vote Leave’s campaign director:

It was Mr Cummings who coined the catchphrase ‘Vote Leave, Take Control’. The group’s initial legal name was Vote Leave, Get Change, but Mr Cummings realised that control was a more seductive message. ‘He came to one meeting and said, we’re going to push this,’ said a colleague …

His slogan has now been swallowed almost whole by [Boris] Johnson, previously one of Britain’s least-scripted politicians. In a TV debate last week, the former mayor of London used the words ‘take control’ no fewer than seven times in his one-minute opening statement.

Baffling claim of the day

The 9% of Ukip voters who don’t back Britain leaving the EU are an … interesting demographic:

Celebrity endorsement of the day

George Osborne has nabbed David Lloyd George for the In team, claiming that – according to museum staff at Llanystumdwy – the Liberal chancellor “would definitely have been for Remain”. Only if he signed up to register before midnight on 9 June, mind …

The day in a tweet

ITV political editor Robert Peston on that Sun front page:

If today were a Smiths song ...

It would be Panic. Could life ever be sane again?

And another thing

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