Afternoon summary
- Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have challenged Cameron to a debate with one of them to settle the dispute about the “six untruths” Cameron is accusing Vote Leave of spreading. (See 3.20pm.)
- The archbishop of Canterbury has launched a scathing attack on the Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, accusing him of giving “legitimisation to racism” for political ends. Justin Welby said claims by Farage that staying in the European Union could lead to mass sex attacks like those on New Year’s Eve in Cologne were “inexcusable”. He also expressed a “very, very major concern” that claims by the leave campaign in the EU referendum about the impact of Turkey joining the EU risked stoking anti-Muslim sentiment in the UK. (See 3.36pm.)
- Thousands of British citizens fear their votes in the EU referendum could have got lost in the post after Germany’s postal service said its workers were confused by the format of pre-paid envelopes sent out to Britons living abroad. As Philip Oltermann reports, a spokesperson for Germany’s postal service, Deutsche Post, said that while the pre-paid envelopes were valid under the Internal Business Reply Service (IBRS) scheme, many of its employees had rejected the envelopes and told voters to pay postage instead. More than 100,000 British citizens are registered as living in Germany. The confusion has arisen partly because the European Union has so far failed to regulate the size of standard letters across the continent.
- Brexit campaigners have claimed that a European court of justice (ECJ) ruling could make it easier for illegal immigrants to reach the UK. (See 3.50pm.)
- Labour has said leaving the EU would threaten investment in energy, hitting jobs and pay in the industry. As the Press Association reports, Lisa Nandy, the shadow energy secretary, spoke of the importance to energy firms of continuing to be part of the EU. She told the GMB conference in Bournemouth:
Over decades we’ve played a leading role in shaping an energy strategy for the EU that has given businesses the confidence to invest. A vote to leave is a leap into the unknown and this would threaten investment. The resulting loss of jobs and pay would be a tragedy.
That’s all from me for now.
I will be launching a new blog later to cover the Nigel Farage/David Cameron EU referendum “debate” on ITV. The programme starts at 9pm, and I will launch the blog at around 8pm. You’ll find it here.
Updated
Here is a short polling reading list.
The Brexit camp should enjoy its current slight bounce in the polls, for it may not last. If history is any guide, then “remain” is still heading for victory on 23 June. Past referendums in Britain have tended to produce a late move to the status quo. The record from six such contests in the past four decades is striking.
In other words, leave would need to be leading by more than four points at this stage to be considered favourite by the model. ICM’s online poll shows a five-point lead for Brexit, but others don’t. ORB’s latest phone poll for the Telegraph had the remainers 12 points ahead on its “all adults” measure, which suggests that the phone v online gap hasn’t gone away. (As ORB has now clarified that this is its headline measure, the polling average and forecast will be using it instead of the “certain voter” measure, though the impact will be small).
Last night’s YouGov/Times poll, the most recent available, showed remain back in a (statistically insignificant) one-point lead. But what is significant is that a poll that had swung to leave when the debates were taking place is now right back where it was before – suggesting either a response bias or a genuine but temporary shift in public opinion.
In any case, the picture painted by the various polls and analysis of likely accuracy, it’s much more likely that remain is still ahead.
Updated
Here is Stefan Rousseau, the Press Association’s chief political photographer’s, picture of the day.
Photo du Jour: Boris Johnson is interviewed by the media in Ipswich during Vote Leave visit. By Stefan Rousseau/PA pic.twitter.com/WhY6KVSF0l
— Stefan Rousseau (@StefanRousseau) June 7, 2016
Earlier I quoted some of the non-headline findings in the latest YouGov EU referendum poll (pdf). (See 12.26pm.) Here are some more that are interesting.
Good news for remain
1 - People think they would be worse off if we left the EU – and the gap has got larger since the question was last asked in April.
Better off: 22% (no change)
Worse off: 37% (up 3)
2 - People think leaving the EU would be bad for jobs – and, again, the gap is getting bigger.
Good for jobs: 21% (down 1)
Bad for jobs: 35% (up 2)
3 - People are more likely to think leaving the EU will leave them worse off personally.
Better off: 10% (no change)
Worse off: 23% (no change)
No real difference: 45% (no change)
4 - By a narrow margin people think having access to the single market, and accepting free movement for EU citizens, is better than having full control of immigration but not having access to the single market. People were asked to choose between two options.
Full control of immigration, but not having free access to EU trade: 47%
Having free access to EU trade, but having to allow EU citizens into UK: 53%
Good news for leave
1 - People think leaving the EU would be good for the NHS – and the gap is getting bigger.
Good for NHS: 40% (up 4)
Bad for NHS: 19% (up 2)
2 - People think, by a massive margin, leaving the EU would lead to lower immigration.
More immigration: 4% (no change)
Less immigration: 57% (down 1)
3 - People think staying in the EU will lead to immigration being higher than the government predicts. YouGov told respondents the ONS expects immigration to be 185,000 a year from 2021 onwards. Many people think it will be higher.
Higher than 185,000: 49% (up 10)
Lower than 185,000: 10% (down 4)
Updated
At his press conference this morning David Cameron said the EU has been faster at signing trade deals than the US.
PM: Europe has been faster at signing trade deals than the US #StrongerIn
— Stronger In Press (@StrongerInPress) June 7, 2016
The Conservative MP David Davis says he’s wrong. He said in a statement:
It is simply not acceptable for the prime minister to give a press conference claiming that the leave campaign are being free with the facts, only to then run fast and loose with the truth himself.
The EU is appallingly slow at signing free trade deals. It takes the EU on average six years to negotiate a new trade deal, according to the remain campaign. It takes the US on average four years.
Updated
Gisela Stuart, one of the few Labour MPs backing Brexit and the chair of Vote Leave, has put out a statement criticising the pro-EU poster unveiled by her party this morning. She said:
The Labour party has a proud history of fighting for and securing workers rights – so I am deeply disappointed to see my party belittling what we have achieved. The suggestion that the only reason we have protections in this country is because of the EU is insulting to all the people who have campaigned for these rights here in the UK.
The truth is that uncontrolled migration, and the consequent mass availability of cheap labour, has led to a depression of workers’ wages. And as we’ve seen from the example of Sports Direct, it has eroded employment conditions too. If we take back control of our immigration system, and introduce an Australian points-based system we can change this.
Updated
Dominic Raab, a justice minister and a Vote Leave spokesman, says today’s ruling from the European court of justice saying that non-EU migrants illegally entering the Schengen zone should not be jailed is a threat to the UK. He said:
These rulings by the European court of justice threaten the integrity of our borders, and create serious risks for our security. It’s also a stark illustration of our loss of proper democratic control to the EU over a sensitive area of policy.
The ruling increases the risk that illegal immigrants will be able to enter the UK, because it weakens the ability of other EU governments to put in place proper checks. The EU is simply not fit for purpose, and the only way to take back control is to vote leave on 23 June.
Updated
Archbishop of Canterbury accuses Farage of racism and 'accentuating fear for political gain'
Earlier I said that, with his campaign in difficulty, David Cameron might need to recruit someone widely trusted, like the archbishop of Canterbury, to attack leave for him. (See 12.26pm.)
Uncannily, now that is exactly what has happened. Justin Welby, the archbishop, has been giving evidence to the Commons home affairs committee this afternoon about immigration and he used the hearing to strongly condemn the Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, for what Farage said about staying in the EU increasing the chances of mass Cologne-style attacks on women.
The Labour MP Keith Vaz, chair of the committee, asked Welby if he agreed that those comments were racist. Welby replied:
I would agree with you.
I think that is an inexcusable pandering to people’s worries and prejudices.
That’s giving legitimisation to racism, which I’ve seen in parishes in which I’ve served and has led to attacks on people in those parishes. And we cannot legitimise that.
Fear is a pastoral issue, you deal with it by recognising it, by standing alongside and providing answers to it.
What that is is accentuating fear for political gain and that is absolutely inexcusable.
Welby also said he condemned the comments “without hesitation”.
Updated
Boris Johnson and Gove challenge Cameron to TV debate
Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are challenging David Cameron to a debate with one of them. In response to what Cameron said about their campaign this morning (see 12.49am), they have issued this statement.
The real risk for Britain in this referendum is voting to remain in the EU with a broken single currency and a rogue European court. The safer choice is voting to leave, so we can take back control of our money, borders, security, trade and taxes.
If we needed a reminder of just how risky it is to remain in the EU, the European court has today issued extraordinary judgments that undermine our ability to deal effectively with asylum.
We think that the public deserve the chance to hear these issues debated face-to-face between the prime minister and a spokesman for Vote Leave so they can judge for themselves which is the safer choice on 23 June. The prime minister was absolutely right to hold this vote and allow ministers the chance to disagree with him. We hope that in the same spirit he will accept this invitation.
Johnson and Gove are referring to this European court of justice ruling saying non-EU migrants illegally entering an EU state in the Schengen zone should not face jail.
Updated
Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, was joined by three of his predecessors at an event at Lib Dem HQ this morning where they spoke out in favour of EU membership.
Farron said a leave vote could break up the UK.
This is too important to remain a blue-on-blue slugfest between two chaps who went to Eton 30 years ago. If we vote ‘out’, there won’t be one referendum but three or four as we face the breakup of the UK.
Nick Clegg said the referendum was a Tory family row.
The Conservatives are inflicting their family row on us but it is not their families’ futures at stake. It is not their jobs at stake. Indeed, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove probably regard it as a chance for promotion in their own party.
Paddy Ashdown accused Johnson and Gove of posing as “working-class revolutionaries”.
Boris Johnson and Michael Gove driving around the country in a German bus claiming to be Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels does stretch rational credibility.
Sir Menzies Campbell claimed Nigel Farage was bogus.
Nigel Farage is a man of privilege, pretending to be on the side of the under-privileged, while dressed from the pages of Country Life.
The Lib Dems also played this clip of the late Charles Kennedy, another former leader, talking about how important pro-Europeanism was to the party in a rousing speech to conference three years ago.
Updated
Nigel Farage has unveiled a new poster ahead of his TV “debate” with David Cameron tonight.
Updated
What Cameron says about leave's 'six untruths' - and Vote Leave's response
Vote Leave has issued a detailed response to David Cameron’s statement. This is what they are saying about all six of Cameron’s accusations. (See 12.49am.)
Generally Cameron’s arguments are solid. But his assurances tend to cover the short and medium term, and involve taking declarations from fellow EU leaders at face value.
Some of the Vote Leave assertions involve refusing to accept expert judgments (see 6 below) or differences of interpretation (see 3 below – agreeing not to veto eurozone integration is not the same as giving up the veto). And some of the Vote Leave arguments involve taking a longer-term perspective than Cameron is taking. Most of them, though, are also founded at some level on the belief that EU leaders simply cannot be trusted.
Here are the six claims, what Cameron is saying, and what Vote Leave is saying in response.
1 - UK liable for eurozone bailouts
Cameron says: “They said we are liable to bail out eurozone countries. Not true. My renegotiation means we are categorically not liable for eurozone bailouts. It is there in black and white in the legally binding and irreversible negotiation deal.”
Vote Leave says: The eurozone has “broken its promises before”. It says Cameron’s EU renegotiation is “widely regarded” as not legally binding. And it says article 122 (2) of the treaty on the functioning of the EU allows the council of ministers to give bailouts to countries affected by “severe difficulties caused by natural disasters or exceptional occurrences beyond its control” under qualified majority voting.
2 - UK rebate at risk
Cameron says: “They said that our rebate, the money that we get back from the EU, is at risk. Again, not true. The British prime minister has a veto on changes to our rebate. Only a British prime minister could decide to give it up.”
Vote Leave says: The only legal basis for the rebate is an EU decision that expires in five years and the British government itself has said the rebate is agreed by negotiation with EU partners. It also says Cameron himself said in 2005 that getting rid of the rebate in return for common agricultural policy reform was “not ... unreasonable”.
3 - Veto surrendered
Cameron says: “They said we’ve given up our ability to veto EU treaties. Again, not true. There’s absolutely nothing in the renegotiation that gives up our veto as a full member of the European Union.”
Vote Leave says: As part of his renegotiation, Cameron did agree that the UK would not block further eurozone integration. The deal says: “Member states not participating in the further deepening of the economic and monetary union will not create obstacles to but facilitate such further deepening.” Vote Leave also says the UK would not block countries like Turkey joining the EU because the government supports EU enlargement.
4 - EU spending
Cameron says: “They said we had no ability to stop overall EU spending from going up. Again, not true. The budget for the current period, 2014 to 2020, is set in stone and can only be changed with the consent of all countries, including the British prime minister. Again, it’s wrong to claim anything different, and by the way, the spending for this period is lower than in the last period because I negotiated a cut in the EU budget.”
Vote Leave says: The EU’s budget (multiannual financial framework - MFF) is under pressure and is likely to have to be increased. Vote Leave quotes a European parliament briefing paper saying: “For a number of reasons, implementation of the 2014-2020 MFF has already proven to be challenging, even in its first two years. In order to accommodate unexpected needs within the authorised ceilings, the budgetary authority has already had to resort to almost all the special levers and flexibility instruments provided for in the MFF regulation.” And it says Tony Blair failed to veto a budget in 2005.
5 - EU army
Cameron says: “They said we were powerless to stop Britain being forced into an EU army. Again, not true. We have a rock solid veto on EU foreign and defence policy initiatives. Even if it was proposed, we would veto it. Just like William Hague did when he vetoed the idea of a European HQ on defence policy.”
Vote Leave says: An EU agreement allows other member states to establish “permanent structured cooperation” in defence. The UK cannot block this. Also, a Telegraph story last year claimed Cameron was going to drop his opposition to an EU army in return for Angela Merkel supporting his EU renegotiation.
6 - Saving £8bn by leaving the EU
Cameron says: “They said we’d save £8bn if we left the EU. Again, not true – almost every credible economic organisation who’s looked at this has said that the economic shock of leaving Europe would cause a black hole in the public finances, and this would wipe out any saving that might be made. This black hole is estimated at between £20bn and £40bn. That is the scale of the damage that leaving would do to our ability to fund the NHS, our schools or our defences. Indeed, in an unprecedented intervention yesterday, the IFS – one of the most respected independent thinktanks in our country – directly took on this falsehood from the leave campaign. They said, and I quote: ‘Leaving Europe would mean spending less on public services, or taxing more, or borrowing more’.”
Vote Leave says: The UK’s net contribution to the EU in 2015 was £10.6bn, not £8bn, and Cameron himself said in 2013 that “trading would go on” if the UK left the EU.
Updated
Vote Leave says remain campaign is 'in a blind panic'
Vote Leave says David Cameron’s decision to hold a press conference this morning shows remain is panicking. It has put out this statement from the Ukip MP Douglas Carswell.
The In campaign is in a blind panic. David Cameron’s renegotiation was a failure - no one believes he got a deal worth the paper it was written on. Now people are rejecting his campaign of fear. The prime minister says we need a proper debate about the facts but he is too chicken to take on anyone from the Vote Leave campaign head to head.
David Cameron and George Osborne have both admitted that they have given up our right to veto future EU treaties, that the EU has ignored us in the past over bailouts and they know their guarantees on the renegotiation are about as trustworthy as their mate Nick Clegg’s pledges on tuition fees. On 23 June, the public have a choice: if they trust David Cameron and other EU politicians they should vote “in”. If not, they should vote leave to take back control.
Updated
The Remain campaign have wheeled out Lord Mandelson, the business secretary Sajid Javid and CBI head Carolyn Fairbairn for the latest pro-business case against Brexit. And it’s fair to say that Project Fear is alive and well.
The slogan of the day was “We just don’t know,” explained by Mandelson as the Leave camp’s only answer to how the UK could continue to trade easily and profitably on leaving the EU. A glossy brochure listing Leave’s various models for post-Brexit trade has the slogan on its cover, and a photo of a blindfolded man in a suit about to step off a precipice. It’s not subtle stuff.
Research done for Britain Stronger in Europe claims Brexit would cost UK businesses that export to the EU an average of £79,000 a year extra in non-tariff barriers, totalling £34bn or so. This is, of course, a figure that is hard to verify.
Mandelson was on scathing form about the Leave campaign, saying he and Javid had written to the group asking to outline what their post-Brexit trade plan actually was. “Michael Gove’s favourite Albanian model?” he asked rhetorically at one point, adding: “No thanks.” Javid, meanwhile, said Leave were “rolling the dice with people’s livelihoods.”
A Q&A with reporters brought up little of real interest. Mandelson, asked if he was scaremongering, argued the risks were so high he could actually be more alarmist. Questioned on Jeremy Corbyn’s campaiging he praised him for eschewing the big events and “taking the Labour message around the country.”
The Remain campaign's latest, entirely non-fear based and positive message to voters about Brexit pic.twitter.com/f4ucFmYNKl
— Peter Walker (@peterwalker99) June 7, 2016
Cameron on the 6 'total untruths' being told by Vote Leave
Here is the key extract from David Cameron’s statement accusing Vote Leave of spreading six “total untruths”
And because they don’t have any credible experts on their side, what are [Vote Leave] reduced to? Telling complete untruths to the British people.
Now in the space of the past few days, here are six of them:
1 - They said we are liable to bail out eurozone countries. Not true. My renegotiation means we are categorically not liable for eurozone bailouts. It is there in black and white in the legally binding and irreversible negotiation deal.
2 - They said that our rebate, the money that we get back from the EU, is at risk. Again, not true. The British prime minister has a veto on changes to our rebate. Only a British prime minister could decide to give it up.
3 - They said we’ve given up our ability to veto EU treaties. Again, not true. There’s absolutely nothing in the renegotiation that gives up our veto as a full member of the European Union.
4 - They said we had no ability to stop overall EU spending from going up. Again, not true. The budget for the current period, 2014 to 2020, is set in stone and can only be changed with the consent of all countries, including the British prime minister. Again, it’s wrong to claim anything different, and by the way, the spending for this period is lower than in the last period because I negotiated a cut in the EU budget.
5 - They said we were powerless to stop Britain being forced in to an EU army. Again, not true. We have a rock solid veto on EU foreign and defence policy initiatives. Even if it was proposed, we would veto it. Just like William Hague did when he vetoed the idea of a European HQ on defence policy.
6 - They said we’d save £8bn if we left the EU. Again, not true – almost every credible economic organisation who’s looked at this has said that the economic shock of leaving Europe would cause a black hole in the public finances, and this would wipe out any saving that might be made. This black hole is estimated at between £20bn and £40bn. That is the scale of the damage that leaving would do to our ability to fund the NHS, our schools or our defences. Indeed, in an unprecedented intervention yesterday, the IFS – one of the most respected independent think tanks in our country – directly took on this falsehood from the leave campaign. They said, and I quote: “Leaving Europe would mean spending less on public services, or taxing more, or borrowing more”.
So there you have it. Credible experts warning about risks to our economic security on the one side, and a series of assertions that turn out to be completely untrue on the other. The leave campaign resorting to total untruths to con people into taking a leap in the dark.
It is irresponsible. It is wrong. It is time that the leave campaign was called out on the nonsense that they are peddling.
Updated
Cameron's press conference - Verdict
Proper prime ministerial press conferences are as rare as solar eclipses (as I said earlier) and a flurry of excitement went through the Westminster village this morning when a press notice went out summoning journalists to one at very short notice. In the event, it did not live up to expectations.
It was not just that the event barely lasted longer than a solar eclipse, and that David Cameron only took one question from a newspaper journalist (meaning that the press conference description hardly applies anyway). It was that reporters were expecting a solid intervention, and instead got little more than a reheat of what Cameron told the Jeremy Vine show yesterday.
Cameron’s point was that he wanted to “call out” (dreadful phrase, but it’s the one he used) Vote Leave for telling six “complete untruths” about the EU choice facing voters. (See 11.25am.) His points were all strong ones. But there were at least three drawbacks with what he was up to.
First, only six? Anyone who draws up a good list knows that you need at last 10 points and, given Vote Leave’s record as a purveyor of dodgy claims, it would not have taken much work to get into double figures easily. Cameron seemed to be understating his case.
Second, he sounded as if he wanted to accuse Boris Johnson and Michael Gove of lying but could not quite bring himself to do so. This is understandable; “lying” (which means saying something knowing it to be untrue, not just saying something in error) is a strong word which gets used to readily about politicians, most of whom are quite careful not to cross the line that separates the wilfully misleading from the outright fib. This explains why Cameron gave the answer he did about how Gove and Johnson were perhaps making false statements about EU budget matters because they did not understand the detail because they had not been involved in the discussions. (See 11.36am.) ... No, I don’t buy it either. Cameron ended up sounding just a tad naive. If he thinks they’re lying, perhaps it would be best to say so. But, of course, he can’t do that either, because at that point the whole “how can you have a liar in your cabinet?” argument comes into play, and the post-referendum reconciliation reshuffle goes down the Swanee.
And, third, it it probably too late now for Cameron to win the trust argument. Yesterday polling figures came out confirming that Johnson is far more trusted on EU matters than Cameron. As I wrote yesterday, this is not easy to understand, to put it politely. New YouGov polling out today (pdf) highlights the problem in more detail. Asked about the leave campaign, 22% said it had been mostly honest, and 42% said it had been mostly dishonest, giving it a net honesty score of -20. Asked about the remain campaign, 19% said it has been mostly honest, and 46% said it has been mostly dishonest, giving it a net honesty score of -27. This is in spite of the fact that the leave campaign battlebus highlights a flagship claim about the cost of the EU that has been denounced as plain wrong by every expert body that has looked at it. Politicians sometimes take the view that the voters are always right, but in this case that argument is hard to sustain.
Cameron’s problem is that a large chunk of his credibility has been washed away by the angry, popular anti-elitism that is churning through not just Britain but the rest of the western world.
If he wants to persuade people that his campaign is more honest than the leave camp, he’s going to have to find someone else to make the case. Someone of impeccable integrity. Perhaps the archbishop of Canterbury is free one morning over the next fortnight?
Still, Cameron did leave journalists with the impression that the remain camp is in a bit a panic. With remain needing to mobilise its supporters (because leave’s are already more motivated), there is an advantage in getting that message out.
Updated
Cameron declines to say that his opponents are deliberately lying
Q: [From Sky’s Faisal Islam] If your colleagues are lying, how can they be fit to be in your cabinet?
Cameron says they are making points about EU policy. They have not been as involved in EU policy as he has been. He knows the reality, because he has been taking these decisions.
He says at times the EU drives him crazy.
He says it is not for him to say why his opponents are making these errors.
- Cameron declines to say that his opponents are deliberately lying.
- Cameron backs away from saying Vote Leave campaigners telling “untruths” will be sacked from cabinet.
And that’s it.
The press conference is over.
Q: You are accusing your colleagues of lying to the public. Are you worried you are losing?
Cameron says people are being told things that are not correct. He has called a press conference to correct that.
We must make a decision based on facts, he says.
He says he would not want people to go to the polling station without knowing the facts.
Q: The momentum seems to be with leave.
Cameron says he is looking forward to his ITV appearance tonight. He was watching the news last night and was struck by the contrast between the weight of expert opinion, and the series of assertion from the leave campaign “that simply aren’t right”.
He says he felt it was important to say to people they should not leave the EU on the basis of false information.
He says he wanted to call out the leave campaign. They are making assertions that are not correct.
If it was just one body warning about the impact of the economy, people might say, ‘Let’s take a risk.’
But there are so many bodies warning of the risks that they cannot be ignored.
Updated
Cameron accuses Vote Leave of telling six 'complete untruths'
Cameron says, from those who want us to lead, we have just heard “complacency and nonchalance”.
He says they have said we have had enough of experts. (He is referring to what Michael Gove said yesterday.) Would you build a bridge without advice from an expert?
He says leave campaigners have told six “complete untruths” recently.
First, they said the UK would be liable for future eurozone bailouts. Not true, he says.
Second, they said the UK rebate was at risk. Not true, he says.
Third, they said the UK would lose its ability to veto future EU treaties. Not true, he says.
Fourth, they said the UK could not stop the EU budget going up. Not true, he says.
Fifth, they said the UK could not veto an EU army. Not true, he says.
And, sixth, they said leaving the EU would free up £8bn for spending on other things. Not true, he says. He says the IFS said that yesterday.
He says the leave campaign need to be called out on the “nonsense they are peddling”.
Updated
David Cameron's press conference
David Cameron is starting with a statement.
He mentions the intervention from the Hitachi boss. (See 8.42am.) He quotes from Hiroaki Nakanishi’s article and he says jobs would be at risk.
And he quotes from what the head of the WTO said in a Reuters inteview yesterday about how leaving the EU would be a “high risk bet”.
Cameron says these interventions are “an economic reality check”.
David Cameron is keeping the journalists waiting in the sunshine – which is not a good idea.
Press corps beginning to wilt waiting for PM in blazing sunshine #factor500 #swelter #redfaces pic.twitter.com/zMvbXgvmKV
— norman smith (@BBCNormanS) June 7, 2016
Updated
The pound has gone up this morning on the back for polls showing the remain campaign ahead, the Press Association reports.
Sterling has surged against the dollar and the euro after fresh polls put the remain camp in the lead ahead of the EU referendum.
The value of the pound rose more than 1% against the dollar at 1.46, and it was up 0.9% against the euro at 1.283.
The swing away from the three-week low against the dollar seen on Monday came after support for staying in the EU was given a one-point lead in an online YouGov survey for the Times, and a telephone poll by ORB for the Daily Telegraph.
However, some analysts have questioned whether the currency movement could have been partly caused by a “fat finger trade” – an order to buy or sell which is larger than intended.
Senior market analyst Craig Erlam, at OandA, said: “The two polls overnight have lent support to the pound early in today’s session, although the spike from around 1.4480 to 1.4640 shortly after 5am in the UK has been attributed to a fat finger trade.”
A fat finger trade is a mistake, someone hitting the wrong keyboard (or a typo as we call it in my line of work.)
Updated
David Cameron has picked an interesting spot for his press conference this morning. Enemy territory? #EUref pic.twitter.com/nb3yWBKcAK
— Michael Savage (@michaelsavage) June 7, 2016
Leave campaigners have sent some chickens to picket the Cameron event.
That’s a reference to David Cameron not debating directly with Nigel Farage tonight, I presume.
We've been sent to the Johnson Roof Terrace for Cameron speech on EU referendum.
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) June 7, 2016
How apt pic.twitter.com/g51RlUzVV3
Cameron about to hold a press conference. Some @vote_leave chickens outside. Presumably referring to @itv programme (not debate) tonight
— Chris Ship (@chrisshipitv) June 7, 2016
David Cameron's press conference
David Cameron’s press conference is due to start shortly.
Decent backdrop for the PM's surprise press conference ... pic.twitter.com/RVYa5wxBwj
— Kevin Schofield (@PolhomeEditor) June 7, 2016
Not too shabby a location for PM's press conference this morning pic.twitter.com/QD7CxIno2W
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) June 7, 2016
Dominic Raab, the justice minister and Brexit campaigner, was on the Today programme talking about Vote Leave’s claim that EU rules are preventing the deportation of foreign criminals. When it was put to him that leaving the EU would mean that the UK could no longer use the European arrest warrant to extradite people (Lord Mandelson’s point - see 9.17am,), he said that David Anderson, the government’s independent reviewer of terrorism legislation, has said he would expect extradition arrangements to continue in the event of Brexit.
Anderson has taken to Twitter this morning asking Vote Leave not to quote him selectively. He thinks the UK will be safer remaining in the EU, he says.
To those in the Leave campaign selectively quoting me, I am clear (for the record) that we are safer in: https://t.co/LUWyRQKPBj.
— David Anderson (@terrorwatchdog) June 7, 2016
The Vote Leave briefing explains in detail why EU law makes it hard for the UK to deport EU criminals after they have finished their jail sentences. It says:
The home secretary has the power to deport foreign nationals from the UK if she considers that it would ‘be conducive to the public good’ (Immigration Act 1971, s. 3(5)(a). In addition, UK law provides that a person who is (a) convicted of a serious crime and sentenced to imprisonment or (b) is sentenced to more than twelve months’ imprisonment, is subject to automatic deportation (UK Borders Act 2007, s. 32). However, this has no application where deportation ‘would breach rights of the foreign criminal under the EU treaties’ (UK Borders Act 2007, s. 33(4)).
This means that those with a right of residence in the UK under EU law are subject to a much weaker system. As Mr Justice McCloskey has said, EU foreign national offenders fall under ‘an entirely different régime from that which applies to other immigrants’ (Homb v Secretary of State for the Home Department [2014] UKAITUR IA202952012). EU law ‘purposefully make[s] it difficult to remove a person from the jurisdiction’, even if they are a criminal (Secretary of State for the Home Department v Juocys [2013] UKAITUR DA005632013).
The Vote Leave briefing also says the 2004 free movement directive says a criminal conviction alone does not constitute grounds for deporting someone. It also says that EU citizens who have lived in the UK for more than five years may only be removed on “serious grounds of public policy and public security” and that EU citizens who have been here for 10 years can only be removed “on imperative grounds of public security”.
Raab told the Today programme that, because of these rules, the government was able to remove eight times as many non-EU nationals as EU nationals.
At the Labour poster launch earlier Jeremy Corbyn made a last-minute plea to young people to register to vote. The deadline is tonight. He said:
Today is the last day to register to vote in the referendum and I urge anyone who is listening or watching us today to just remember they have a chance to register today - they can do it online, it means they will be able to vote and take part.
Many young people are still not registered. I hope they will take the advantage of using a smartphone or a computer and getting their names on the register to be able to take part in what will be a very important decision.
Cameron to hold a press conference
David Cameron is holding a Britain Stronger in Europe press conference this morning.
Big day - Cameron - Farage in front of same audience tonight, and on way to last min number 10 press conference this morning
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) June 7, 2016
We don’t know yet what he plans to say, but from what his aides are hinting, it sounds as if he is not just inviting journalists in for a pleasant chat.
(Proper prime ministerial press conferences in London are about as rare now as solar eclipses. Cameron always holds one at the end of every EU summit in Brussels, and he holds press conferences when some foreign leaders visit, which are often limited to two questions for the British press. After speeches he will normally take two or three questions from journalists. But a proper press conference is different, because it allows for sustained questioning.)
Carolyn Fairbairn, the CBI director general, has been delivering a speech on the EU this morning. She said that the business consensus was in favour of remaining in the single market and that that was because of the single market.
The business consensus is for the UK to remain inside the EU. Ask me to give you the top reason by a country mile and I’d give you two words - single market.
500 million citizens, 28 member states, one set of rules. The largest free trade zone in the world with access to 53 other trade deals around the world.
As a country, we created the single market, we’re shaping it. And – if we remain – we will help decide where it goes next.
She also said the expansion of the EU digital single market offered huge opportunities to British firms.
When it comes to e-commerce, the UK is the best in the world. There aren’t many countries where you can order groceries online today, and have them on your doorstep tomorrow.
And European e-commerce is growing fast. We might call a country growing at 6-7% a year ‘high growth’. Well, European e-commerce is growing by three times that, at 18% a year.
Yet despite all our expertise and all this opportunity – today just one in 14 UK retailers sells online elsewhere in the EU. Setting a single set of rules – and creating a truly digital single market – would be a massive coup for thousands of British businesses.
From big retailers to entrepreneurs selling out of their spare rooms, 450m new customers would be just a click away. And it is within reach if we remain in the EU.
What UK Thinks, the specialist polling website, has updated its poll of polls on the EU referendum.
Here is the Financial Times’s Brexit poll tracker (which compiles a poll of polls in a slightly different way, and does not seem to have been updated since Sunday.)
And here’s the Bloomberg Brexit tracker.
Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, has been launching a new EU referendum poster this morning.
We've just launched our new #LabourIn advert about the workers' rights we've secured through membership of the EU pic.twitter.com/B0Mj6SR3wi
— Jeremy Corbyn MP (@jeremycorbyn) June 7, 2016
These are from the BBC’s Norman Smith.
Labours Tom Watson says its up to individual Labour MPs to decide whether to campaign alongside David Cameron
— norman smith (@BBCNormanS) June 7, 2016
Tom Watson says he wd not campaign with Cameron in #Euref
— norman smith (@BBCNormanS) June 7, 2016
At one point Tom Watson, the deputy Labour leader, burst into song.
.@tom_watson just started singing Holding Back The Years. Actually true. pic.twitter.com/x5vkhQFA2K
— Owen Bennett (@owenjbennett) June 7, 2016
Channel 4 News’ Michael Crick thinks Watson’s choice was not particularly appropriate.
Oh dear. Tom Watson sings Simply Red at today's Labour event. Yesterday @mjhucknall called Corbyn "spineless coward" pic.twitter.com/jyV1naVsy8
— Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) June 7, 2016
UPDATE: I’m told by a Labour source that Crick missed the point. Watson was intentionally poking fun at Mick Hucknall.
In case you missed it, this is what Hucknall said about Jeremy Corbyn yesterday.
What a shabby, spineless coward Jeremy Corbyn is proving to be. Either fully commit to #LabourIn OR #LabourLeave or GO! #Brexit 🐓🐥🐓
— Mick Hucknall (@mjhucknall) June 6, 2016
Updated
Peter Mandelson says leaving the EU would 'torpedo' the British economy
Lord Mandelson, the Labour former business secretary, was interviewed on Sky News this morning, ahead of a pro-EU event he’s attending later with Sajid Javid, the current business secretary. Here are the main points he made.
- Mandelson said leaving the EU would “torpedo” the British economy.
In my view if we left the European Union we would be outside Europe’s 500 million consumer, single market, and that would torpedo our economy, our well-being and prosperity in our country.
- He urged people sceptical about politicians to listen to people like the head of Hitachi. (See 8.42am.)
I think that people’s trust in all politicians in all parties has gone down over the years. But what I would say to them is this, don’t take it from me, don’t rely on my word, look at the Daily Mirror, page 10, today. The chairman of Hitachi, a very, very major Japanese investor, invested in Britain’s rail and energy sectors, he and other Japanese investors have created 140,000 direct jobs in this country, coming to Britain so that they can then access Europe’s single market. And what he’s writing in the Daily Mirror today is this: “Take away the UK’s membership of the European Union and the future investment case in Britain looks very different for us. We worry that Brexiteers, those who want to leave the European Union, have no answer to how the UK could negotiate cost-free access to this huge market from a position outside it.”
- He said Vote Leave’s claims about the EU making it harder for foreign criminals to be deported ignored the security advantages of EU membership. Referring to the fact that Dominic Raab, the justice minister and Vote Leave campaigner was due on the programme later to talk about this, Mandelson said:
Ask him this: he rightly talks about 50 who have not yet been - foreign European criminals - who have not yet been deported. Ask him about the 6,500 European criminals that have been successfully deported from this country through our use of the European arrest warrant. That’s since 2010. They take a germ of truth, they then generalise from it and in the process they distort the real picture. The big picture is that we need the European arrest warrant to deal with these criminals and being members of the European Union allows us to use that warrant to very good effect.
I’ve taken the quotes from PoliticsHome.
Updated
Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has been talking to the Daily Telegraph about his preparation for tonight’s TV (not quite) head-to-head with David Cameron. (They are on the same programme, but being interviewed separately, not debating each other directly.) You can tell Farage is taking it seriously because he says he has given up drink for a week.
He told the Telegraph:
It will be a big pitch against the establishment and I shall be saying to people ‘if ever there was a vote in your life that could make a difference, this is it’.
The big issue is to say to people ‘don’t listen to a political class backed up with their mates and their multi-national businesses and big banks for whom the EU and corporatism has been enriching. Your lives have been made miserable by this’.
The only people leaving the EU would make poorer are the ruling classes. Families like the Camerons might be worse off outside the EU ...
For years I have been clear, consistent and I believe absolutely truthful about the damage that [Cameron’] political project has done to this country at a democratic and economic level.
I want the audience to see that and to ask themselves the question in their minds about a prime minister who promises to reduce net migration to tens of thousands becomes prime minister on the back of it and doesn’t have the ability to deliver it.
According to the Telegraph, Farage wants to highlight the government’s failure to address the risk of Turkish accession to the EU, poor border security, illegal immigration and protecting Britain’s fishing stocks from foreign trawlers.
Hitachi boss says Brexit could make firm rethink its investments in UK
Hello. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Claire.
Britiain Stronger in Europe is very pleased about an article that Hiroaki Nakanishi, chairman of Hitachi, has written an article for the Daily Mirror opposing Brexit. Hitachi employs 3,600 people in the UK and Nakanishi says that if Britain were to leave the EU, companies like his would rethink their investment decisions.
Here’s an excerpt.
We have our regional headquarters here and moved our global rail headquarters to London.
But take away the UK’s membership of the EU, and the future investment case looks very different.
In the 80s Nissan and Toyota came to the UK on the basis that if they produced here and employed a British workforce they would be treated as European companies.
This was only possible because Britain was inside the EU; and so the UK car industry was revived and became an exporter again.
From Japan, this incredible success story looks like a huge gain from the UK’s membership of the EU.
We worry because those advocating Brexit have no answer to how the UK could negotiate cost-free access to this huge market from a position outside it.
It would take a long time and result in uncertain market conditions; during this renegotiation period, investors would probably be waiting to see the outcomes, hold back on investment, and jobs would be lost.
This is the cold economic reality of Brexit.
This is not just a Japanese view. Many international investors in UK manufacturing and research, like Airbus, Siemens, GE and Microsoft have voiced the same concerns ...
Brexit would force us and similar companies to rethink, because we still have a European vision, and would be disadvantaged in pursuing it from the UK.
It’s time for me to hand the live blog over to Andrew Sparrow, who’ll be here for the rest of the day.
Thanks for reading and for your comments here and on Twitter.
A non-EU aside, but an important one: this morning Sports Direct boss Mike Ashley will be quizzed by MPs on the business, innovation and skills committee.
It follows revelations in the Guardian that the firm effectively paid staff below the minimum wage and subjected them to daily searches.
The business live blog will have coverage of Ashley’s appearance right here:
News from Australia, where the federal election is under way, could equally serve as a warning for politicians – or rather, those coming into contact with politicians – on campaign trails everywhere. Wash your hands!
Updated
Former European commissioner Peter Mandelson has more to say today on what he and business secretary Sajid Javid claim could be a £34.4bn “export tax” for British firms to trade with the EU in the event of a Brexit.
Mandelson has said that leave campaigners want to weaken Cameron ahead of the referendum, according to this report from AFP:
Mandelson said it was in the interests of Brexit backers “to make David Cameron look as isolated as possible – isolated within his own party and also isolated from others in the political mainstream and spectrum”.
“That’s why you’re seeing the agitation, the daily headlines delivered courtesy of the pro-Brexit press on behalf of the ‘Leave’ campaign,” he added.
“That’s how they want him to be seen because they think in that way they will reduce support for him.”
Mandelson wants the country to remain part of the EU.
“People correctly perceive the risks but they do not yet fully understand why the danger of leaving the EU and its single market is so great for the economy,” he added. “That’s our job to explain.”
Updated
How would Brexit affect you? Here’s a whizz through the things – workers’ rights, consumer protections, environmental regulations – that could be affected if Britain votes to leave.
Midnight tonight is the cut-off for those who still need to register to vote: find out how to do that here. The Electoral Commission, according to the Today programme, says 226,000 people signed up yesterday (it’s possible, mind you, that at least some of those were already registered, but belt and braces and all that).
Yesterday was the 2nd biggest day ever in voter registration, says the @ElectoralCommUK. 226,000 people registered, nearly 150,000 under 35.
— BBC Radio 4 Today (@BBCr4today) June 7, 2016
For those who need further encouragement there’s a Twitter emoji for those declaring they are #EURefReady – it’s a neon tick, which I can’t guarantee will show up on your screen in the tweet below…
#EURefReady is top trend in the UK - great work! Tweet now, make sure everyone knows to sign up before midnight Tues https://t.co/L1wVCexcch
— Twitter UK (@TwitterUK) June 6, 2016
Updated
Morning briefing
Good morning and welcome to our daily EU referendum coverage.
I’m kicking things off with the morning briefing to set you up for the day ahead and steering the live blog until Andrew Sparrow takes his seat. Do come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.
The big picture
Nigel Farage – that longtime espouser of Brexit – has so far been rather shouldered aside in the campaign by official Vote Leave frontmen Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. Today he’s back in the spotlight.
The Ukip leader (much to the chagrin of Vote Leave, who called it an “outrage”) will appear on ITV1 this evening for a Q&A with a live studio audience. David Cameron will do the same but, as has become the norm in this campaign, will not face Farage directly. Instead the two men will have 30 minutes of questions from audience members, moderated by ITV newsreader Julie Etchingham.
The BBC reports that an internal analysis commissioned by Leave.EU advised that Farage should be used only “sparingly” as a campaign spokesman because of the risk he could alienate voters with “a divisive or reactionary tone on issues like immigration”.
Farage is already under pressure, with a call for him to apologise this evening for comments suggesting mass sex attacks, such as those that took place in Cologne, could happen in the UK if it remains in the EU. He has already faced criticism from both sides of the campaign, but a letter in Tuesday’s Guardian from Conservative peer Sayeeda Warsi, Labour peer and anti-racism campaigner Doreen Lawrence, and former director of Liberty Shami Chakrabarti says his remarks are “an age-old racist tool”:
In Tuesday evening’s debate, Nigel Farage should apologise for the fear and offence caused, retract his comments and promise to conduct future debates with the seriousness and gravity that they and the British public deserve.
Cameron will face his own pressures, too, with Vote Leave continuing to argue that EU rules have prevented the UK from deporting foreign criminals. The outers have compiled a list of 50 offenders they say cannot be forced to leave, including Learco Chindamo, an Italian national who murdered headteacher Philip Lawrence in 1995. Chindamo – who was 15 when he stabbed Lawrence – could not be deported because he had lived in the UK since he was six years old.
Meanwhile, Janet Yellen, the head of the US Federal Reserve, has warned that the possibility of Brexit ranks alongside instability in the Chinese economy and sluggish global growth as a major threat to the American economy. In a speech on Monday Yellen said:
“One development that could shift investor sentiment is the upcoming referendum in the United Kingdom. A UK vote to exit the European Union could have significant economic repercussions.
You should also know:
- Nicky Morgan has attacked a ‘misleading, underhand’ Vote Leave website. The advertised link, which appears above the official government site in a Google search, asks individuals to fill in personal information and click “register to vote”. However, this doesn’t sign people up to vote, but instead provides their details to the out campaign.
- Bankers, traders and analysts are preparing to spend the night in the office on 23 June to respond to exit polls that could spark swings in foreign exchange and bond markets.
- Tony Blair’s camp is readying its defence to the Chilcot report, due on 6 July.
- You have until midnight tonight to register to vote in the referendum. (I mean, not you, organised Politics Live readers.)
Poll position
A fresh Telegraph/ORB poll – written up for the paper by one Lynton Crosby – puts the gap between remain and leave at just one point, with in on 48% and out on 47%. Interesting (though perhaps predictable) discrepancies occur when those polled were asked which result would secure a stronger economy (45% remain v 37% leave) and which would improve the UK’s immigration system (54% leave v 21% remain).
A YouGov poll in the Times today sees the remain campaign one point ahead on 43%, recovering from a four-point deficit in a similar poll last week. It also found that 46% of those polled thought the remain campaign was dishonest, and 42% believed the same was true for leave.
Diary
- At 9am Jeremy Corbyn unveils a poster on workers’ rights.
- At 10am Sajid Javid and Peter Mandelson will warn that British firms could face a £34.4bn ‘export tax’ to trade with the EU post-Brexit.
- At 11.30 Lib Dem leaders past and present Tim Farron, Nick Clegg, Menzies Campbell and Paddy Ashdown do a Q&A on the referendum.
- At noon, Ukip reveals its new EU referendum poster.
- At 6pm, Gordon Brown is at LSE for the launch of a report by the LSE commission on the future of Britain in Europe.
- And at 9pm, the main event: Nigel Farage v David Cameron on ITV1.
Read these
Steven Rosenberg, the BBC Moscow correspondent, wonders whether Russian president Vladimir Putin would be pro-Brexit:
Russia is, indeed, ‘not involved’: after all, it’s not Russian voters who will decide whether the UK is in or out of the EU.
But ‘no interests in this field’? That is debatable.
‘If there’s a Brexit, if there’s a crisis in the European Union, this will be a local propaganda victory,’ claims Prof Sergei Medvedev from Moscow’s higher school of economics. He believes the Kremlin’s calculation is a simple one: Brexit = a weaker EU = a stronger Russia.
Over at the Huffington Post, Natalie Bennett, leader of the Greens, explains why she shared a platform with the prime minister yesterday – and why she thinks the media has the wrong story:
The questions from the assembled media were all directed at David Cameron. And they were predictably, boringly, unfruitfully, on script. Two were about internal conflicts within the Tory party. One was about how fervently the Labour party is promoting the ‘remain’ message. The prime minister blocked them with greatly practised ease.
That prompted me to go off script. As David Cameron wrapped up proceedings, I stepped forward with a message very explicitly directed at the media. I said that they were short-changing voters, short-changing democracy, by treating the referendum as being about internal party struggles …
The media has a choice. They can choose to cover this vital decision about the future of our nation, and the whole of Europe, as a Tory leadership contest. Or they can cover it properly, in a way that allows the voters of Britain to make this vital choice with solid information from a wide range of sources, critically examined.
Aditya Chakrabortty, right here in the Guardian, asks why any of us would trust politicians on the EU – or anything else:
British democracy in 2016 comes down to this: a prime minister can no longer come out and say something and expect to be believed. He or she must wheel out a common room-full of experts. He or she can expect to be called a liar in the press and by their colleagues. He or she can only hope that some of what they say resonates with an electorate that has tuned them out.
And mainstream politicians have only themselves to blame. Over the past three decades, Britons have been made a series of false promises. They have been told they must go to war with a country that can bomb them in 45 minutes – only to learn later that that was false. They have been assured the economy was booming, only to find out it was fuelled by house prices and tax credits.
Baffling claim of the day
Nigel Farage has told the Telegraph that he has not had an alcoholic drink for a week in preparation for tonight’s debate:
It is a big moment for the campaign – I am not taking it lightly; I am thinking very hard about it.
So all those other debates/elections/events/engagements were … not so big?
Celebrity endorsement of the day
We are spoilt for choice today. Keith Chegwin is for Brexit, according to an interview with bingo website mFortune Bingo (yes, that is a thing and you can watch the interview in full here. I have to confess I haven’t watched it because it appears to be two hours long. But feel free to report back). Chegwin told the site:
I think it’s always better to shut the door, then open it again and agree better terms.
Chegwin is joined in the leave corner by Richard Fairbrass, aka half of Right Said Fred:
Don't forget that for those daft enough to vote 'remain' registration is best done on the 24th. https://t.co/CuA2BGUbY4
— Richard Fairbrass (@RFairbrass) June 6, 2016
While over in the remain corner is comedian and Matilda songsmith Tim Minchin:
UK humans. 1day left to register to vote! https://t.co/T6NpUm5BR5. Have your say! (My conclusion, FWIW: leaving the EU would be insane.)
— Tim Minchin (@timminchin) June 6, 2016
As well as The Thick of It and Veep creator Armando Iannucci:
EU isn't pretty, but I fear the gleeful faces of Johnson, Gove, Farage, Fox, and Duncan Smith would be uglier still.
— Armando Iannucci (@Aiannucci) June 6, 2016
The day in a tweet
Rob Wainwright, the director of Europol, the EU’s law enforcement agency, doesn’t think much of today’s Telegraph front page: “European criminals free to live in Britain”.
Well, except for about 1,200 each year extradited from the UK under the European Arrest Warrant. Hmm ... https://t.co/8vnP0Qcw0P
— Rob Wainwright (@rwainwright67) June 6, 2016
If today were a classic novel ...
It would be Fyodor Dostoevsky’s Crime and Punishment – the twin themes for the campaigns today. Also, it’s long. Very long. Keep up, readers.
And another thing
Would you like to wake up to this briefing in your inbox every weekday? Sign up here!
Updated
