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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
Politics
Claire Phipps, Matthew Weaver, Haroon Siddique and Ben Quinn

European Union referendum polling day – as it happened

EU referendum: what will happen tonight

Polls close

The polls are closing now following a campaign which many believe was the most divisive in British politics.

On election nights, it’s usually at this time that broadcasters put out their exit polls and make their projection for the night ahead.

There is no such exit poll this time however, although some financial institutions are said to have commissioned private exit polls which they are likely to keep to themselves. Here’s your guide on how the night is expected to play out.

Now, turn over to Andrew Sparrow’s referendum night blog, which has just launched.

Updated

We’re getting some reports around the country of people who say that they have been turned away from election booths.

They include people who turned up, polling card in hand, only to be told that their name was not on a list.

It’s hard to gauge at this stage how extensive those problems might have been but I’ll try to look into a few of those later.

Updated

Has Boris Johnson conceded defeat even before the polling stations close or is this a little bit of mischief?

Lewis Iwu, a Londoner, says that he bumped into the MP on the underground a little earlier and was asked if he voted leave.

Iwu said no and suggested that Johnson had also conceded defeat.

Ever the attention grabber, live pictures are also now coming in of Johnson leaving his vote until almost the last minute.

Updated

We’re into the last half an hour of voting. Traditionally there’s a bit of a rush in some places. Let’s see ...

Updated

As any veteran of election/referendum all-nighters knows, it’s crucial to have a ready supply of unhealthy sugary drinks and snacks close to hand. Bit worried about Robert Peston’s paltry stock at ITV at this stage ...

Updated

Global stock markets have been climbing sharply today as investors took the view that the UK was increasingly unlikely to vote to leave the European Union, reports the Guardian’s Nick Fletcher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has just closed 1.29% higher, with banking shares among the main gainers. Earlier in London the FTSE 100 finished 1.23% higher, while the pound is currently up 1% at $1.4875.

But the recent rally could be dramatically reversed if the leave campaign does end up winning the day.

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at City firm CMC Markets, said: “The FTSE 100 has gained nearly 7% in the last seven days while the pound has rebounded from lows of 1.4010 to peak earlier today at 1.4950 and post its highest levels this year, as the polls continue to improve in favour of remain.

“This suggests that a good part of this remain bounce could well be largely priced in already and if we get some early results in the early hours of the morning pointing to a move back to the leave camp then sterling could drop back sharply, potentially dragging stock markets down too.”

Traders and financial professionals on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange as the UK went to the polls.
Traders and financial professionals on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange as the UK went to the polls. Photograph: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Updated

Away from the torrential rain in some parts of Britain, the possibility of Brexit has been very much on the minds of Britons in sunny southern Spain. A sleepless night beckons for some, it seems.

The Guardian’s Sam Jones has been canvassing opinion in Orihuela Costa, the largest British enclave in Spain:

Early evening found Colin Lindgren nursing an al fresco pint at the Emerald Isle club and reflecting on his paradoxical feelings about Brexit.

Like many of the expats who have made homes here, the retired 75-year-old, originally from Bedfordshire, would hate to give up the life of sunshine he and his wife have enjoyed for 14 years.

If he’d got round to getting his postal vote in on time, he would have opted to remain. Yet if he were still in England, he would have voted to leave the EU.

“I don’t like the way we were conned into it as the man on the street,” he said. “When we first went into it, it was a trading deal. It’s just escalated and the whole thing has got totally out of hand.”

There is however, little to tempt him back to the UK – and it’s not just the excellent Spanish healthcare, the bowls and the sense of community in Alicante province.

“We couldn’t afford to go back now,” he said. “If we had to, it would be very expensive. The cost of living here is lower and it’s a very sensible life.”

Updated

Academic researchers have concluded that 61.6% of young voters intended to vote to remain in the EU.

That’s a survey – the details have just come – by Oxford and University of Manchester researchers who worked with the data firm RIWI to run the survey from the beginning of March up to June. Partial responses came from 7,444 people under the age of 40.

Updated

A last email push is being made by both sides.

One which has arrived from Boris Johnson says:

Polls close in 90 minutes, so obviously we don’t have time for long emails. If you have voted leave, thank you.

If you haven’t yet, please do. And please email, text or phone all your friends to Vote Leave.

Don’t lose this chance to make today our Independence Day!!!

Thank you so much.

It ends with “Sent from my iPhone” because of course he’s been busy tapping that out in the last while.

Another, from Labour, says:

It looks like there could be a record number of people at the polls today, showing just how historic an event and how important this decision is to all of us.

If you haven’t voted yet — don’t miss out on being a part of it.

There’s still plenty of time, polls are open until 10pm.

It comes with a link to a Labour gizmo designed to help voters find their polling station.

A dispatch comes in from Glastonbury, where the Guardian’s Hannah Ellis-Petersen says that there’s general agreement that the “Glastonbury bubble” is a welcome break from the political bickering. That said:

Glastonbury organisers Michael and Emily Eavis may have had no qualms about loudly declaring their voting intentions in the EU referendum, but the once-in-a-generation poll proved more divisive among the 180,000 festivalgoers who arrived in the last 24 hours.

Eavis was not allowed to have a polling station on site but had repeatedly urged people coming on Thursday or before to arrange either a postal or proxy vote – advice it seems many followed.

The Fleming family, who had travelled from Chesterfield for their first Glastonbury together, were divided on the issue. Parents Tim and Jane, 51, both favoured Brexit, but their daughter Holly, 20, took the opposite view.

“It just isn’t that bad in the EU and we’re going to be the generation where if it goes tits up, we’ll have to sort it out,” she said.

Susan Hardisty, 60, who was also at Glastonbury for the first time, said the referendum was “one of the most important votes of our generation, more important than the general election”.

She added: “We have kids in their 20s and I think the world will be a lot easier for them if we are part of the EU. And the thought of retracting into an isolated little Britain just scares the life out of me.”

Patrick Irish, from Gloucestershire, dresses as a ballot box at Glastonbury.
Patrick Irish, from Gloucestershire, dresses as a ballot box at Glastonbury. Photograph: Ben Birchall/PA

Updated

A council in an area where a polling booth was temporarily closed after a man was stabbed nearby has been using Twitter to let voters know that it’s open again.

A 19-year-old man has been arrested in connection with the incident in Huddersfield, which West Yorkshire police said was not linked to the EU referendum.

The man was found collapsed with a stab wound in the Waverley Road area of the town at 5.15pm. Frances Perraudin had some more details earlier.

Updated

Remain campaigners in Islington, a Labour stronghold that includes the constituencies of Jeremy Corbyn and Emily Thornberry, seem confident that rain and occasional thunder and lightning haven’t damaged their chances of success.

The Guardian’s David Pegg, who is anchored in deepest Islington, reports:

Despite comments from Nigel Farage earlier in the day anticipating that the bad weather could favour the leave campaign by putting off “soft remainers”, local activists canvassing outside schools and stations in an effort to reach parents and commuters said they felt positive.

“Turnout appears to have been fairly high. An awful lot of people are saying ‘I’ve already voted’,” said Freddie Wilkinson, leafleting outside Highbury and Islington station.

“There are quite a few people trickling in,” said Jo Wood, one of a group of Labour party members out campaigning. “People are voting.”

Results for the area are expected to be declared after 1.30am, making it one of the earlier counts for London.

Updated

That #usepens hashtag continues to trend on Twitter, with some gentle (and not so gentle) mockery of the urgings from some (mainly pro-Brexit) quarters for voters to bring their own pens to ensure their papers are not altered in favour of a remain vote.

Read Esther Addley’s piece from earlier on one of the more curious trends of today’s poll.

The conversations are still going on in south Wales, reports the Guardian’s Steve Morris.

In Cardiff campaigners have set up next to the statue of Aneurin Bevan – Labour party icon and architect of the NHS.

They believe the turnout in central Cardiff is very big – and think this is good news for Remain - but worry that it may be a different story in the valleys and out in the countryside. They just spoke to someone who was still undecided. “I’ll give it some thought,” she said. She’d better hurry up.

Welsh Labour grandees are still working hard in the valleys, one of their traditional strongholds.

Unlike other parts of the UK, their job has been made more pleasant by warm sunshine.

So, are the polls going to get it right this time? The Guardian’s Tom Clark has been looking at how the EU referendum is the pollsters’ big chance to regain some credibility.

Here’s a snatch

The big flaw unveiled in the thorough post-election inquiry for the industry, by Prof Patrick Sturgis, has not been satisfactorily addressed.

The root problem, he found, was not last-minute jitters in the ballot box or inadequate turnout filters, but rather a brute failure by the pollsters to interview the right people.

A couple of door-to-door surveys run by academics and published long after the event did get election 2015 right. The big difference was that these surveys picked out voters’ names at random, and then kept hammering on their doors until they answered.

The other polls, whether online or phone, give up on the hard-to-reach, move on to other phone numbers and email addresses, and thus fail to achieve a genuine mix. In 2015 it transpired that Tories, for whatever reason, were that bit harder to rouse, creating the big polling miss.

Read on here.

Betting odds for the the EU referendum result are displayed in a betting shop in London, Thursday on 23 June.
Betting odds for the the EU referendum result are displayed in a betting shop in London, Thursday on 23 June. Photograph: Tim Ireland/AP

Updated

For those having trouble getting home because of the weather, I’m afraid it’s too late to apply for an emergency proxy – the deadline was 5pm today.

It seems unlikely that transport problems would be accepted as a valid reason anyway, as people stranded overseas today because of the strike by French air traffic controllers were told they were not entitled to appoint an emergency proxy.

The guidance on such proxies for the EU referendum says they apply when someone has a medical emergency or “your occupation, service or employment means that you cannot go to the polling station in person, and you only became aware of that fact after the proxy vote deadline (15 June)”.

When my colleague Mark Tran asked the Electoral Commission about the possibility of people stranded at train stations getting emergency proxies, they referred him to this tweet by the commission.

It’s Ben Quinn here picking up the baton now from Haroon. Red Bulls at the ready?

Updated

Very high turnouts have been reported in the back yard of the only pro-Brexit MP in Bristol, Charlotte Leslie.

Clerks in polling stations on council estates, littered with leave signs, said that they were “not as high as 75%, but close”.

In posher districts at one polling station, the Guardian was told that, including postal votes, “1,000 of the 1,400” had been cast – but this was “not as high” as other nearby counts.

Bristol, considered a pro-remain stronghold, is one of the last big counts to declare with a result due at 6am.

If the national result is very close – as some predict – then Britain could be waiting to see what happens in the city to find out whether the country remains or leave the EU.

Updated

West Yorkshire police have confirmed that they were called to a stabbing near a polling station in Huddersfield at 5.15pm, but said the incident had nothing to do with today’s referendum.

The polling station on Waverley Road was closed for half an hour to “contain the scene”, but has now reopened.

Local reports have named the victim as 18-year-old Luke Joseph and say he was stabbed by a gang of five other teenagers. Police believe he was attacked in the nearby Greenhead Park and then walked to the polling station, where he collapsed.

The victim’s injuries have been described as serious but not fatal.

Voters stranded by rail problems

The problems at London transport hubs could potentially affect the ability of thousands of people to vote.

Waterloo, where there appears to be no service at all, serves 90 million passengers a year, which is about 250,000 a day on average (although the average obviously includes weekends and holidays).

Cannon Street, Charing Cross, London Bridge, Victoria, and probably other stations have also been affected. They are all major commuter stations with many people likely to have left for work this morning before polls opened.

The Rail Delivery Group says among the train operators affected are Abellio Greater Anglia, Gatwick Express, Southern, South West Trains and Thameslink.

Among those stranded is the broadcaster and journalist Sian Williams:

Updated

A reader has got in touch to say that turnout may not be high everywhere:

Turnout of 70% to 80% expected in Scotland

Scotland’s chief returning officer, Mary Pitcaithly, has predicted overall turnout in Scotland will reach about 70-80% after a day of “steady” voting at polling stations.

Pitcaithly told BBC Radio Scotland she did not expect turnout to reach the 85% seen in the Scottish independence referendum in September 2014, which she oversaw, but agreed it would still be high.

Only 56% of Scotland’s 4 million-strong electorate turned out for May’s Holyrood elections, but 71% did so in last year’s UK general election.

The chief executive for Falkirk council, she is due to announce Scotland’s regional result after collating the count data from 32 local councils at around breakfast time.

Members of the public at Pollokshields primary school polling station in Glasgow, Scotland.
Members of the public at Pollokshields primary school polling station in Glasgow, Scotland. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Updated

Voters stuck at Waterloo station

The storms have brought Waterloo station to a standstill, potentially affecting thousands of passengers who may not have voted.

The station is a major hub for people commuting from outside London many of whom would likely have left in the morning too early to vote.

Many people have taken to social media to express concern that they will miss the 10pm deadline.

Updated

More on the pens saga from PA, which reports that police were called to a polling station where a woman was handing out pens to fellow voters after a volunteer reported a “disturbance”.

A Sussex Police spokesman said:

Police were called to Durnford Close, Chichester, at around 12.25pm on Thursday 23 June by a volunteer reporting a disturbance outside a polling station.

A PCSO [police community support officer] who was in the area went to the scene and spoke with a woman who was handing out pens.

No offences were committed and it was not being treated as a police matter, the spokesman added.

Concerns have been expressed on social media that votes not written in ink could be rubbed out and altered.

Updated

There are some interesting tweets about turnout coming through:

Schools in Bristol, painted as a great remain heartland, ran mock referenda today. Of course it’s not the real thing and only a bit of a laugh but there was an interesting split. In the affluent northern suburb at Redland Green school, of the 475 staff and pupils who voted, 440 backed staying in the EU. That’s 93% of the vote.

Meanwhile in the less well-off southern fringe of Hartcliffe, students were more evenly split. Pupils at Bridge Learning Campus in Hartcliffe backed remain.

Updated

Some interesting constituency by constituency figures are coming out of Northern Ireland that show voting is slow in republican areas while unionist districts are recording higher votes.

In North Down - the most affluent constituency in Northern Ireland - polling stations were reporting that 22% of the electorate had voted by lunchtime today. North Down usually records one of the lowest electoral turnouts in Westminster and Stormont Assembly elections.

In sharp contrast, by midday one polling station in the republican heartland of West Belfast was reporting a 7% turnout.

Meanwhile in republican/nationalist-dominated Derry, turnout was about 11.5% by lunchtime in the Foyle constituency.

Overall the Electoral Office in Northern Ireland expects the region-wide turnout to be close to 70%, which would be 15 percentage points higher than last month’s election to the devolved assembly.

South Belfast, regarded as the most liberal constituency in Northern Ireland, was reporting voting turnout of up to 21% in some polling stations by the middle of the day.

A man accompanied by his dog laughs as he leaves a polling station in Belfast after voting in the EU referendum.
A man accompanied by his dog leaves a polling station in Belfast. Photograph: Charles McQuillan/Getty Images

Updated

After the BBC reported earlier this week that poll station staff were receiving “training in what a selfie is”, with the hope of preventing photography while people vote, it appears smartphones are posing a threat to the privacy of poll booths.

Taking a photo inside a polling station is not of itself against the law but section 66 of the Representation of the People Act says:

No person shall communicate at any time to any person any information obtained in a polling station as to the referendum answer for which a voter in that station is about to vote or has voted.

Many social media users have taken photographs, including Henry Smith, Conservative MP for Crawley. Smith tweeted a photograph of his completed ballot paper. The tweet received a mixed reception from other users, with several suggesting he had committed electoral misconduct.

Updated

Summary

Here is a round-up of the key developments so far today:

  • At least two polling stations had to be moved and people voting at others had to wade and/or be helped through deep waters, as torrential rain fell on parts of London and the south-east, causing severe travel delays and flooded homes.
  • A poll of polls by Britain Elects put the likely outcome as 51% for remain and 49% for leave. The final pre-polling day poll, by Ipsos-Mori, gave the Remain camp a four point lead. It is believed to be the first to be published while voting was taking place. All the final phone polls showed remain in the lead, whereas the last four online polls were split with two putting remain ahead and two putting leave in the lead.
  • The pound hit a new high for the year and shares closed up in a volatile day’s trading, indicating investors are expecting a remain vote. The pound and FTSE100 surged in the morning, fell back in the afternoon and then rallied again later, albeit not reaching the peaks during morning trading.
  • Vote Leave has been criticised for an email warning that the referendum could be decided by voters in London and Scotland “despite the heartlands of the country voting to leave”. The email also included a a photo of a queue outside a polling station captioned a “leafy London suburb”. Labour MP Chuka Umunna, a member of the official remain campaign, said the message was divisive, describing it as “utterly disgraceful”.
  • A council has urged voters not to use pens when they cross their EU referendum ballot papers as it could cause them to smudge. East Northamptonshire council issued the warning after a conspiracist meme encouraged pro-Leave voters to take pens to vote so that their pencilled-in crosses could not be tampered with.
  • Most of the key figures in the campaign, including David Cameron, Michael Gove, Jeremy Corbyn, Nicola Sturgeon and Nigel Farage cast their votes early. As he left a polling station in Islington Corbyn said: “The bookies usually get it right [but] they got it wrong on me big time last year, didn’t they?”
  • The referendum has been the biggest political betting event in history. Betfair said it took £5m on the result this morning.
  • What happens after polls close at 10pm? Here’s how we expect the night to play out, from the leave heartlands of the northern counties and the east coast, to the remain cities of London, Edinburgh and Bristol.

Updated

Pound and FTSE close up

Investors have put their money on a vote to remain in Britain’s EU referendum, with the pound hitting a new high for 2016 and the FTSE 100 share index rallying strongly.

As the market exuberance of recent trading sessions continued throughout polling day itself, there were, however, fresh warnings that investors were setting themselves up for heavy losses in the event of a Brexit when the outcome of the referendum becomes clear on Friday.

The pound broke through $1.49 against the dollar for the first time since December before shedding some of those gains in afternoon trading to stand at $1.4799 (still up 0.6% on the day). The FTSE 100 index of leading shares added a solid 1.2%, or 77 points, to close at 6338 - the highest for eight weeks.

Chris Saint, senior analyst at financial firm Hargreaves Lansdown Currency, said:

Clearly the key issue now for currency markets is whether rising expectations that the status quo will prevail are well-placed.

Most of the results from the local counting areas are expected by the early hours of tomorrow morning with the official outcome anticipated by around breakfast time. Dramatic exchange rate swings are to be expected regardless of the result, with a sharp drop in the pound’s value possible in the event of a Brexit.

Shares and the pound were higher from the open and got an extra fillip in morning trading after the publication of an Ipsos Mori poll conducted for the Evening Standard newspaper showed a four-point lead for remain.

“Even though we all know that polls can be rubbish, the markets seem quite happy that the remain camp has done enough to win,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at spread-betting firm City Index.

Updated

Vote Leave accused of belittling Londoners and Scots

It may be polling day but there is no respite from the bitterness between the two opposing campaigns.

Stronger in Europe has hit out at a plea by Vote Leave chief executive Matthew Elliot, sent by email to Brexit supporters, urging them to vote, because:

There is a very real chance that voters in London and Scotland will vote to keep us in the EU today despite the heartlands of the country voting to leave.

The email includes a photo of a queue outside a polling station in a “leafy London suburb”.

Chuka Umunna, Labour MP for Streatham, said:

Vote Leave are ending this campaign as they began it – by seeking to divide our country not unite it, turning regions, nations and communities against one another.

Londoners and Scots have as much right to exercise their democratic choice as anyone else. Implying that our votes are somehow less legitimate than those cast in other parts of Britain is utterly disgraceful.

Updated

Pollsters have suggested that the elderly are more likely to vote and more likely to vote “leave”. So the vote by Keith Adams’s mum today may come as little surprise but it was the way she exercised her democratic right that got it trending on Twitter.

Twitter users all across the country appropriated Adams’ post to tell people what their 93-year-old mums are contributing to the poll station, from the serious to the utterly bizarre:

“Keith” and “93 yr mum” have both trended on Twitter today.

Adams has since written a blog post in response to trolling he received as a result of his post, condemning his critics for their “entire premise...that being brexit invalidates anything else”.

Earlier the pound surged to a 2016 high against the dollar and also appreciated against the Euro but it has fallen back this afternoon:

One of my Guardian colleagues, Maya Wolfe-Robinson, has been told that an inability to get back to vote because of strike action on the continent is insufficient reason to be allowed an emergency proxy.

Others appear to have the same problem:

  • That’s it from me for now. I’ll be back on in the early hours for the results. In the meantime Haroon Siddique is poised to take over.

    • Earlier we highlighted this lovely gallery of quirky polling stations up and down the land from the Guardian’s picture desk. We’re also starting to receive pictures from readers around the country.

    Emma Cozzi sent this, a church community centre in Hove.

    The prettiest polling station in the land? It is according to one reader, who sent this from near her home in Hove, East Sussex.
    The prettiest polling station in the land? It is according to one reader, who sent this from near her home in Hove, East Sussex. Photograph: Emma Cozzi/GuardianWitness

    You can see more pictures readers have sent, including one from Stephanie Steele, who lives above her polling station in Windsor, and add yours (but please don’t tell us which way you are voting) here.

    Boris Johnson and Theresa May
    Boris Johnson and Theresa May Photograph: Paul Ellis/AFP/Getty Images

    Amidst all the political gambling on the outcome of the referendum, William Hill points to an interesting activity in a side bet on Theresa May becoming the next Tory leader.

    It has halved May’s odds from 6/1 to 3/1, making her a clear second favourite, behind 11/4 favourite Boris Johnson.

    William Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe said: “Ms May had drifted right out in the odds over recent months, finding very little support with political punters, but suddenly she seems to be back in favour and the money is hinting that she might be well placed to be a serious contender for the top job.”

    Nigel Farage
    Nigel Farage Photograph: Mary Turner/Getty Images

    Nigel Farage is still expected at a Leave.EU party hosted by Ukip donor Arron Banks tonight, despite triggering speculation over his whereabouts by pulling out of a Channel 4 debate last night citing family reasons.

    Sources confirmed he had decided instead to have dinner with his son, who has been abroad for work for nine months. It also looked like he was none too keen on bumping into fellow C4 guest Alan Sked, a former Ukip leader who has been very rude about him.

    Farage looked chipper as he voted in his home village of Westerham in Kent this morning and is understood to have been having a relaxing lunch before getting ready for the big night.

    The library in Birstall, outside which MP Jo Cox was murdered seven days ago, is serving as a polling station and there is a light police presence outside.

    David Smith, the deputy returning officer in the area, says turnout seems high (postal voter turnout looks like it will be over 80%) and that the region’s count hall in Huddersfield will hold a minute’s silence for the MP at 11.30am.

    Smith says the last time he oversaw a count in the area was when Jo Cox was elected as the constituency’s MP. Fighting back tears, he says: “I work with politicians everyday and they have a bad press, but everything they say about her is true.”

    On the stroke of 12.50pm, the time that Cox was killed seven days ago, around 200 people gathered around the corner from the polling station in Birstall market square to take part in a vigil for the MP. Holding hands, the crowd held a minute’s silence before chanting “we stand together” and singing hymns.

    Paul Knight, the vicar of Birstall, who led the vigil, said Cox’s death had caused the country to stop and think about the decision facing them in the EU referendum.

    “The country paused after a very uncomfortable period of argument and exaggeration, if not untruth, and I hope that pause, though it has come about through such a tragic incident, will make people carefully think through the issues.”

    People arrive at Birstall Library to cast their vote in the EU referendum.
    People arrive at Birstall Library to cast their vote in the EU referendum. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    The steps of nearby Batley town hall, which was also being used as polling station, were decked in floral tributes to the MP.

    A polling station being used in the EU referendum at Batley Town Hall in the constituency Labour MP Jo Cox.
    A polling station being used in the EU referendum at Batley Town Hall in the constituency Labour MP Jo Cox. Photograph: Danny Lawson/PA

    Updated

    Turnout could be similar to last year’s general election, according to a BMG Research poll for the Electoral Reform Society [ERS]. It found that 67% of people said they would definitely vote and a further 12% said they would probably vote. At last year’s election the turnout was 66%.

    A high turnout is thought likely to favour remain, but the survey also found that older people who are more likely to vote leave are more likely to vote than younger people.

    Just 54% of 18-24 year olds said they would definitely vote today, compared to 79% of over 65s. While up on last month’s 47% for 18-24 year olds, it is still a “stark gap”, according to ERS.

    Katie Ghose, its chief executive, said: “Considering the fact that this is a once in a generation vote, the fact that turnout could be similar or lower than last year’s general election is a shame if true. This referendum is arguably more important than a general election as every votes counts and the result will affect the UK for decades to come.

    “A poor turnout risks people viewing this issue as unclosed, and we could see calls for further referendums or questioning of the validity of the result from either side.

    Nobody wants a result based on a small minority of registered voters. Instead this is an opportunity to have a decisive result, so we hope everyone gets out to vote before the 10pm deadline.”

    “The demographic gap is worrying – with 71% of wealthier Brits saying they’ll vote compared to just 62% of those from poorer socioeconomic backgrounds, and with only half of 18-24 year olds saying they’ll vote. This referendum can’t be decided by one demographic on behalf of another – it needs to be the result of a great national conversation involving everyone.”

    Voters queue to enter a polling station at Trinity Church in Golders Green on June 23, 2016 in London, England.
    Voters queue to enter a polling station at Trinity Church in Golders Green on June 23, 2016 in London, England. Photograph: Matt Cardy/Getty Images

    Welsh first minister – and Labour leader in Wales - Carwyn Jones has voted.

    He’s been campaigning hard in the Welsh valleys in recent days trying to get that Labour vote out for Remain in one of the party’s traditional strongholds. But Ukip has also been getting stronger in the valleys. It will be fascinating to find out how valleys folk have voted today. They’ve benefitted from millions of pounds of EU money – but it’s easy to find people concerned about immigration here too.

    Remain campaigners in Glasgow have set up a wish tree in Buchanan Street to rival those set up during the independence campaign.

    In case you missed this from the indyref it was a charmingly empowering/nauseatingly twee device that we had a lot up here with folk leaving their wishes for an independent Scotland.

    Now there is one for the EUref and I feel that the circle has been fully squared:

    Nigel Farage has put out a final Leave.EU video appeal that picks up Boris Johnson rallying cry to make today “Independence Day”. It features lots of nostalgic clips: Ian Botham winning the ashes in 1981, British troops in the Falklands, steam trains, and spitfires.

    Column Eastwood leader of the SDLP has used his daughter Rosa (who is one today) to make a last ditch video appeal for remain.

    Talking outside a local polling station in Derry city he said: “I want to make sure Rosa grows up in the European Union”.

    We’ve been asking our readers to send over their referendum day photographs and comments. Here’s a selection:

    Mark, 49, Cologne:

    The EU referendum has been in the news here a lot and Germany is fully aware of the implications whichever way the result goes. Germany does not want to see the UK leave and truly believe we’re stronger together. I’m an expat who came to Germany after leaving the RAF and married my German spouse. I came over 20 years ago. Now all I can now do is sit and watch, as I’m not allowed to vote due to being away from the UK for too long. The rest of my family are all in the UK and I know they’ll be making the right decision. As for me? I will have to wait until breakfast tomorrow for the result.

    Naomi Tayler, 38, South Cambridgeshire:

    It was a busy polling station in Melbourne at 7am this morning, I was accompanied to vote by my cocker spaniel, Bella and border terrier, Daisy, who are now regular attendees at the polling station. Unfortunately the dogs were so enthusiastic they ruined a fellow voters white trousers by jumping up!

    Catherine Phipps, 20, Paris:

    I’m a student at the University of London Institute in Paris, and will be following the coverage in Paris with my other British friends who live here. None of the French people can understand why we would leave. I don’t either.

    Chloe, 27, Harrow:

    My polling station has pimped up for the day with a lot of patriotic memorabilia. Is this what democracy looks like?

    Kate Smith, 19, Newcastle upon Tyne:

    I’ve only voted twice before, but both of those times I was in and out of the polling station within minutes. Today, when I arrived, there was a queue of around 15 people lined up outside – it was 8am! The most encouraging thing was that of these 15 people, around two thirds were under 25. I’m so glad that my generation is engaging in this referendum, which in my opinion could be the most important decision we could make.

    Help us document what’s happening around the UK on polling say by sharing your stories, photos and videos here.

    Updated

    There’s been little sign of leave campaigner Boris Johnson today. That’s because he’s been attending his daughter graduation ceremony in St Andrews. Will he make it back to London in time to vote?

    Boris Johnson speaks to family members after attending his daughter Lara’s graduation in St. Andrews, Scotland.
    Boris Johnson speaks to family members after attending his daughter Lara’s graduation in St. Andrews, Scotland. Photograph: Joe Penney/Reuters

    A poll of polls by Britain Elects puts the likely outcome on 51% for remain and 49% for leave.

    Polls in the last 10 days of the campaign have been split, but the last four all have Remain ahead.

    Long queues have been reported outside some polling stations as voters cast their ballots in Britain’s closely fought EU referendum.

    In London and parts of the south-east many were forced to brave torrential rain and navigated flooded streets to have their say.

    David Cameron ignored questions about the weather, saying only “Good morning” as he and his wife Samantha cast their votes at Methodist Hall in Westminster.

    The Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, speaking outside his Kent home, said he believed the leave camp had a “very strong chance” because of the weather, adding: “But it’s all about turnout and those soft remainers staying at home.”

    Voting is said to be “brisk” across Northern Ireland in the EU referendum according to the Electoral Office in the region.

    Unofficially it is said the vote could be as high as 70% in the region.

    If this is the case it will be far higher than the turnout for the Northern Ireland Assembly elections last month which was 55%.

    There are 619 polling stations across the province and the votes will be counted at eight different centres before the full Northern Ireland result is declared in Belfast’s Titanic Centre.

    A sign on a gable wall in Belfast’s, Loyalist Tigers Bay urging voters to leave the EU citing the Bible.
    A sign on a gable wall in Belfast’s, Loyalist Tigers Bay urging voters to leave the EU citing the Bible. Photograph: Liam McBurney/PA

    North Wiltshire Tory MP James Gray (a passionate leave supporter) says if people vote to remain he will accept “the democratic will of the people”, but only if it is a “reasonable majority” suggestion around 60-40.

    Are the Leave campaigners paving the way for the next wave of campaigning if they lose?

    Betfair has taken £5m on the EU referendum this morning as punters rush to place final bets ahead of tomorrow’s results.

    There has been a flurry of bets, predominantly on staying in the EU, according to a spokeswoman. “The Scottish referendum saw nearly £10m traded on the day, so we’re anticipating at least that amount,” she said.

    The company says it has taken £56m on the political event. Betfair said their biggest bet of the morning had been £28,500 on Remain, adding that they had had eight bets that day of £20,000 or more. Overall, the biggest bet they’ve seen has been £315,000 on remain.

    It’s a similar picture for Ladbrokes, which reported bets of over £1m in the last 24 hours. Most of the money was on the Remain side it said. The average stake on Remain is now £400, while the average on Leave is £70.

    A spokesperson for Coral described betting as brisk this morning, saying that there had been numerous four figure bets laid, predominantly on Remain. So far it has had one bet of £4,000 on Remain (at 1/4) and a £2,000 punt on Leave (at 11/4).

    “The majority of bets today are for Remain, which has seen the odds on Britain staying in the EU shortening from 1/4 to 1/7, and Leave out to 4/1, from 11/4.”

    It added that while more shop customers are predominantly backing out, online ones are for stay. “This reflects an older customer base who bet in shops wanting out, and the younger customers who bet online are for staying.”

    It’s a similar picture at William Hill, which makes Remain a 2/9 favourite – equating to an 81% chance of winning.

    Thursday’s referendum is due to break the record as the most bet-upon political event in Britain’s history.
    Thursday’s referendum is due to break the record as the most bet-upon political event in Britain’s history. Photograph: Leonora Beck/AP

    There’s been flooding outside the Grange primary school in Newham, east London.

    Eyewitness Ben March said people were “hitching up their trousers and wading through the water” to cast their votes.

    Flooding outside the Grange primary school in Newham, east London
    Flooding outside the Grange primary school in Newham, east London Photograph: Ben March/PA

    A spokeswoman for Newham borough council said that everyone would still be able to vote, adding that teams were out trying to clear the water.

    There should be no problem accessing and assistance is on hand for those needing it.

    There were also problems in New Malden, south-west London, Merton council said.

    A council spokeswoman said no-one had been turned away and that staff were doing “everything they can” to guide voters and drivers through and clear water away.

    Kingston council, also, in south-west London has had to move a couple of polling stations due to the weather.

    Tea rooms, front rooms, mobile homes, a Buddhist centre and a launderette – here’s our photo gallery of quirky polling stations.

    Updated

    Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood has voted at Tonypandy in south Wales.

    She has been a passionate voice in the Remain campaign. But it would be fascinating if, say, Wales voted to remain and the UK as a whole voted out. Would that be a boost to nationalism in Wales? You’d think so.

    Down amongst the detail of today’s Ipsos Mori poll are a couple of interesting nuggets. Two weeks into the campaign the Ipsos Mori polls showed that immigration had overtaken concerns about the impact of Brexit on the economy as the issue which was the most important in helping people to decide how to vote.

    Last week’s poll which had a six point Leave lead had 33% of people naming immigration as the decisive issue for them.

    Today’s poll (which gives Remain a four point lead) still shows immigration as the issue of most concern at 32% but concerns about the impact of Brexit on economy has closed the gap to 31%. This may explain how the swing to Remain has taken place.

    The poll also has some interesting party breakdowns. It shows that 68% of Labour voters intend to vote Remain, but only 43% of those who voted Conservative at the general election intend to back Remain.

    This is what happened to the pound after the poll was published.

    Spain’s El Mundo carries an interview with Winston Churchill’s grandson, Sir Nicholas Soames. In it, not for the first time, Soames declares : “My grandfather would have voted to remain.”

    Sticking with the second world war theme, the El Mundo journalist Alberto Rojas has posted some very stirring footage shot for the film 1969 film Battle of Britain. The accompanying tweet reads: “I preferred it when the British were trying to free Europe rather than trying to abandon it.”

    The Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, also scrambled the Spitfires earlier this week.

    There’s more on European press coverage here.

    Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
    Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Photograph: Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images

    The first Brexit copycat has emerged in a country that has not yet gained entry to the EU.

    On the eve of the vote, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan suggested that Turkey could hold a referendum over whether to go on with its long-stalled and rocky accession process to join the bloc.

    “We can stand up and ask the people just like the British are doing,” Erdogan said in an angry speech late on Wednesday after breaking the Ramadan fast at an official dinner. “We would ask ‘Do we continue the negotiations with the European Union or do we end it?’ If the people say ‘continue’, then we could carry on.”

    He has repeatedly accused the bloc of rejecting Turkey on the grounds that it is a Muslim-majority country. Ankara has also been angered by comments from David Cameron during the bruising Brexit campaign, suggesting that Turkish membership was not even “remotely in the cards” and that the country may not join until the year 3000.

    Brexit dominates Italy’s front pages, deemed “Europe’s longest day” by La Repubblica and business daily Il Sole 24 Ore.

    Rome’s top paper, Il Messaggero, carries a bleak image of the “anxiety and fear of the British, divided on the destiny of the Kingdom”. It says the climate in Britain has become even more poisonous since the murder of MP Jo Cox. The staunchly anti-EU Il Giornale carries a photo of a “Keep Calm & Vote Leave” van, declaring that whoever wins, Brussels has lost.

    The Italian papers have also noted prime minister Matteo Renzi’s pro-Remain article in the Guardian.

    Summary

    Here’s a summary of where things currently stand just over five hours since polls opened:

    Updated

    Help us document what’s happening around the UK on polling day by sharing your stories, photos and videos. Show us what’s been happening in your community and at polling stations around the country. If you’re following the election from outside of the UK, tell us how and why. We’ll feature your stories throughout our coverage, so get in touch.

    You can share your photos and experiences by clicking on the blue ‘Contribute’ button at the top of the live blog.

    Remember that sharing pictures of yourself or what’s happening before you go into or after you leave the polling station are great, but please don’t take pictures or video of yourself inside the polling station, as publishing it to GuardianWitness or social media could be a breach of the law. Also please do not tell us how you voted or how you intend to vote as we will not be able to publish your contribution until after the polls close at 10pm.

    More about pencils (number 2 on the Cowley list). A trusted contact of our North of England editor Helen Pidd, emailed this:

    “I run a polling station and it is very noticeable how many voters today are bringing their own pens and even sharpies to register their vote rather than use the pencils provided in the booth. Worrying lack of trust in the counting system and I assume someone has put out some sort of rumour that votes made in pencil can be erased, which as you know is ridiculous.

    Professor Briain Cox, Britain’s favourite scientist, quipped:

    A stubby pencil on a string used in polling booths
    A stubby pencil on a string used in polling booths Photograph: Alamy

    Spaniards tend to be very proud Europeans, which is one of the reasons there’s so much interest here in the referendum.

    But there’s another very, very strong reason why Spanish eyes are fixed so firmly on the UK today.

    As this graphic from the online Spanish newspaper El Español shows, almost a third of the tourists who came to Spain in May were British. Last year, British tourists spent €14bn in Spain - or €444 a second. If Brexit happens, the paper notes, the pound is likely to tumble in value and British holidaymakers will be less happy to splash their cash. The article bears the headline: “The graphic that makes Spanish tourism shake over Brexit”.

    The LibDems lit up the foot of Edinburgh castle with a Remain messages.

    LibDem Vote Remain message
    LibDem Vote Remain message Photograph: LibDems
    Tim Farron
    Tim Farron Photograph: WPA Pool/Getty Images

    LibDem leader Tim Farron made a final plea to voters. He said: “Today is about the very future of Britain; it’s about the kind of country we want to be: an outward looking, tolerant and progressive nation, leading in Europe.

    “But the result today is still on a knife-edge, and we absolutely must not let the likes of Nigel Farage and Michael Gove have their way. The very tone of their campaign should tell us enough about what they would do to our country.

    “So that’s why I need you to go to the polls and cast your vote for Remain. I need you to vote with the prosperity and opportunity of our future generations at the forefront of your minds.”

    Four point lead for Remain on last pre-Referendum poll

    In what is believed to be the first ever poll published on polling day, Ipsos Mori gives Remain a four point lead.

    The phone survey was completed in the days before the referendum.

    Mike Smithson, an election analyst at politicalbetting.com points out that all the final phone polls showed Remain in the lead, whereas all but one of the online polls show Leave in the lead. One of the methods was wrong, we just don’t know which yet.

    As predicted by Cowley (number three on his list of things to watch), we’re seeing a lot of dogs at polling stations.

    Now spotting dogs at polling stations has become Twitter’s favourite pasttime on polling day. This year, as with last year’s general election, #dogsatpollingstations is one of the top trends.

    Ukip leader Nigel Farage joked with reporters that he had been “undecided” how to vote as he arrived at a polling station in a primary school near his home in north Kent.

    Spain’s acting prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, has taken an unequivocal line on Brexit, warning earlier this month that a leave vote affect the hundreds of thousands of Britons who live in Spain and “would be very negative for everyone and from every perspective”.

    Divorce from the EU, he stressed, would see British citizens forfeiting the rights to live and work across the continent.

    However, pro-independence politicians in Catalonia – who long for a break with Madrid – are taking a far more nuanced approach. Although most people in Spain are strongly pro-European, Catalan separatists recognise that Brexit could help set a precedent for how the EU deals with a reconfigured Europe.

    Raül Romeva, the Catalan minister for foreign affairs said: “Catalonia has been following with great interest the debate that is taking place these days in the UK and its possible outcome. British citizens have been given the opportunity to compare all the various points of view before voting freely on what kind of relationship they want their country to have with the European Union. This is beneficial for any democracy: it reinforces it and makes it stronger.”

    Whatever the result, adds Romeva, the referendum has shown that citizens are “free to decide on their sovereignty in a democratic way”.

    “Europe has always adapted itself to new realities. We have seen it in the past, we will see it now with the United Kingdom and we will continue to see it in the case of Catalonia.”

    Catalonia’s regional president, Carles Puigdemont, recently told the Guardian that he saw many parallels between the rhetoric deployed by the Remain campaign and language used to counter moves towards Catalan independence.

    “We have also suffered campaigns of fear,” he said. “I remember when the banks started issuing their opinions. They treated us as if we were not grown-ups and said a whole lot of lies.”

    Puigdemont also downplayed suggestions that the UK’s departure from the EU would tear apart the union, saying: “The EU will make an extraordinary display of political realism, and an admirable, Darwinian ability to adapt.”

    British tourists play pool at a English bar in Benalmadena, Spain. Spain is Europe’s top destination for British expats with the southern regions of Costa del Sol and Alicante being the most popular places to live.
    British tourists play pool at a English bar in Benalmadena, Spain. Spain is Europe’s top destination for British expats with the southern regions of Costa del Sol and Alicante being the most popular places to live. Photograph: David Ramos/Getty Images

    Google Trends has been looking at what UK internet users have been searching for in connection with the referendum.

    The top issues by local authority revealed that ‘immigration’ (in red) was very prominent all over the country, but so too was the ‘NHS’ and the search term ‘Expats’. ‘Trade’ and the ‘economy’ were less prevalent.

    The leave campaign has covered more of provincial and rural England in its efforts to persuade Britons to quit the EU, while the remain side has concentrated on urban centres.

    Analysis by the Guardian, which pinpoints campaign stops made by four prominent campaigners on either side of the debate in the five weeks to 16 June, shows the leave side has largely ignored Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, while the remain camp has been absent in a large swath of eastern England.

    For the analysis the Guardian looked at the itineraries of four campaigners on the remain side: prime minister David Cameron, chancellor George Osborne, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and shadow first secretary of state Angela Eagle and, on the leave side, Conservative MPs Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, Ukip leader Nigel Farage and Labour MP Gisela Stuart.

    It also shows that both sides have, in the main, chosen to campaign in areas broadly supportive of their respective views. In north-west England, for example, the remain campaigners have concentrated on the larger urban centres, Liverpool and Manchester, both of which are rated “relatively Europhile” by YouGov.

    Looking a little quiet on the Isles of Scilly at the moment.

    Scilly Sergeant Colin Taylor is making sure there’s no foul play in the far south west of Britain.

    The Isles of Scilly could be one of the first places to have a result. Usually at elections ballot boxes are taken to the mainland for counting but for the referendum it will be done on St Mary’s. Only 1,700 voters so it shouldn’t take that long.

    Over in the City, shares have hit their highest level since late April as investors remain glued to the EU referendum vote.

    The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares jumped by 1.5% to a two-month high, before dipping back a little, as Brits headed to the polling booths. Mining stocks and financial firms are among the risers.

    The FTSE 100 index over the last three months
    The FTSE 100 index over the last three months Photograph: Thomson Reuters

    Traders have been watching the EU referendum closely for weeks, and many will be working through the night as the results come in.

    Yesterday, UBS bank predicted that £350bn would be wiped off leading shares if the Leave campaign won.

    The pound is also rallying this morning, hitting a six-month high of $1.4851 against the US dollar. Analysts have forecast that it could plunge to $1.30 after a Brexit victory.

    Our business liveblog has more details:

    Updated

    The Leave camp has a “very strong chance” of pulling off one of the biggest political upheavals of recent times, Ukip leader Nigel Farage has insisted.

    Speaking outside his Kent home, Farage told PA: “Actually I do think we are in with a very strong chance, I do genuinely. But it’s all about turnout and those soft Remainers staying at home.”

    Ukip leader Nigel Farage arrives to cast his vote at Cudham Church of England Primary School in Biggin Hill.
    Ukip leader Nigel Farage arrives to cast his vote at Cudham Church of England Primary School in Biggin Hill. Photograph: Gareth Fuller/PA

    Who knows what happened in the privacy of the voting booth? Here’s video of Labour leader and reluctant remain campaigner before and after casting his vote in Islington.

    “The bookies usually get it right,” Corbyn is heard to mutter, before adding “they got it wrong on me big time last year, didn’t they?”

    Justice secretary and leading Leave campaigner, Michael Gove, has voted in Kensignton. He was accompanied by his wife Sarah Vine, the Daily Mail columnist who is the godmother to David Cameron’s youngest daughter. Note the Vote Leave brolley.

    Justice Secretary and prominent Vote Leave campaigner Michael Gove joins his wife Sarah Vine as they make their way to vote.
    Justice Secretary and prominent Vote Leave campaigner Michael Gove joins his wife Sarah Vine as they make their way to vote. Photograph: Jack Taylor/Getty Images

    Thorbjørn Jagland
    Thorbjørn Jagland Photograph: Laurie Dieffembacq/AFP/Getty Images

    Thorbjørn Jagland, the Secretary General of the Council of Europe, said he hoped Britons would choose to stay in, but said Europe would deal with the issue in a “rational way” if the verdict was to leave, writes Saeed Kamali Dehghan in Oslo.

    “I was chairing the committee that awarded the Nobel peace prize to the European Union so the answer is evident [on where I stand] but I really hope that the UK would stay. I also believe that if we get the opposite result, Europe has to deal with it in a rational way, so Europe will survive,” he told the Guardian. “It is up to the people of United Kingdom to decide, it’s a democratic referendum, we have to respect that but I hope results would be clear,” he added.

    He said the UK won’t be isolated if it decided to leave. “British islands will continue to exist and British people will continue to exist as part of Europe, so whatever happens we cannot start isolating each other in Europe once again, it would be ridiculous.”

    The referendum dominated Norwegian front pages on Thursday. “Today Britain can split Europe,” read the headline of Aftenposten newspaper. The cartoon on the newspaper’s front page showed Boris Johnson trying to pull a sword out of a European stone that would make him king. “Fears that emotions will take Britain out of the EU,” read the front page headline of Dagens Næringsliv, one of the biggest newspapers in Norway.

    Labour activists are reporting brisk early business at polling stations in the south Welsh valleys, where the party has been working hard to get the vote out in one of its traditional heartlands.

    But the result in Wales is going to be fascinating following Ukip’s excellent showing at the assembly elections last month when the party took seven seats.

    More than 2.2m Welsh voters are eligible to take part in the referendum and will be casting their votes at 3,578 polling stations.

    Results will be declared locally in each of Wales 22 council areas – from Monmouthshire in the far south-east to the Isle of Anglesey in the north west. The overall figures will be collated and announced in Flintshire in the north-east.

    The Welsh rugby great Gareth Thomas has announced that he has voted for the first time in his life – and reveals that he was heavily influenced by actor Michael Sheen and former Labour spin doctor Alastair Campbell. “Can always blame them,” he said in a Tweet.

    Updated

    Gibraltar Votes In EU ReferendumGIBRALTAR - JUNE 23: Gibraltar Chief Minister Fabian Picardo and his wife Justine depart after voting in the EU Referendum at a polling station on June 23, 2016 in Gibraltar, Gibraltar. The United Kingdom and its dependant territories are going to the polls today to decide whether or not the the United Kingdom will remain in the European Union. After a hard fought campaign from both REMAIN and LEAVE the vote is expected to be very close. A result on the referendum is expected on Friday morning. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)
    Gibraltar Chief Minister Fabian Picardo and his wife Justine depart after voting Photograph: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Gibraltar’s pro-remain chief minister Fabian Picardo has cast his vote. Polls suggest that 85% of the island want to remain in the EU.

    Last week Picardo told the Guardian: “There is quite unprecedented unity here. Myself and all my predecessors, every political party, all the trade unions and employers’ organisations, every club, society and association … For Gibraltar, this is a slam dunk decision. Now that the leave camp has made it clear that they are not looking for Britain to remain a part of the European single market, the choice for Gibraltar has become very stark.”

    In his ten things to watch Philip Cowley warned us to be careful of reports of high turn out (see earlier).

    But we can’t resist having some anecdotal reports from respected sources (what else can we write about on polling day?).

    Cowley is keeping a beady and wary eye on such reports.

    Only two UK referendums have had higher turnouts than recent general elections, the Institute for Government Points out. These were the one on the Good Friday agreement in Northern Ireland in 1998 (81.1%) and on Scottish independence in 2014 (84.6%).

    Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon voted early.

    Updated

    Axel Scheffler, the illustrator behind the Gruffalo, has created an image for the Guardian to demonstrate his support for Britain remaining in the EU.

    Updated

    Edinburgh council has reported that nearly a fifth of the city’s 345,000 voters have already submitted postal votes in the EU referendum, with more than 82% of the city’s postal voters returning their ballot paper by Wednesday evening.

    The city has a high number of registered postal voters at 22%. The number returned so far does not include late submissions – postal votes can be handed into polling places on polling day. That 82% interim turnout is close to the 86% UK average for postal vote returns in the 2015 general election.

    Remains campaigners are out in force in the West End and Partick areas of Glasgow, with the leave camp conspicuous by their absence around polling stations.

    But I’m told that’s because Leave are concentrating on their get out the vote operation. Plus, the student/middle class/SNP make-up of the area probably doesn’t speak to their core support.

    Polling station officials report a steady flow of voters, no doubt encouraged by the bright sunshine, though not yet teaching the high watermark of 2014’s Scottish independence referendum.

    Landmark buildings across Europe, including in Madrid and Warsaw, have been lit up with a Union Jack to show support for the Remain campaign, according to video from the Business Insider.

    Here’s video of David and Samantha on their way to vote in central London.

    Leading leave campaigner Boris Johnson has told the Telegraph that today’s vote is more important to him than his future in British politics.

    “Frankly, if this is the end of my political career… I’ve done eight years as mayor of London, I enjoyed it hugely, it was a massive privilege. Fine by me.”

    But he remains fairly chipper about the outcome.

    “Our campaign has been about optimism and self-reliance. This is an absolute turning point in the story of our country because I think if we go on with being enmeshed in the EU it will continue to erode our democracy. That is something that worries me.”

    Boris spent part of the final day of campaigning kissing fish at Billingsgate.

    Boris Johnson kisses a wild salmon as he is shown around Billingsgate Fish Market in London with porter Greg Essex
    Boris Johnson kisses a wild salmon as he is shown around Billingsgate Fish Market in London with porter Greg Essex Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

    Steve Bell features Boris kissing fish in outer space in his latest If... cartoon.

    Leaders cast their votes

    Both David Cameron and Jeremy Corbyn have cast their votes.

    Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn leaves after casting his vote at a polling station in Islington, London.
    Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn leaves after casting his vote at a polling station in Islington, London. Photograph: Daniel Leal-Olivas/PA
    Prime Minister David Cameron and his wife Samantha vote in the EU Referendum at the Central Methodist Hall in London
    Prime Minister David Cameron and his wife Samantha vote in the EU Referendum at the Central Methodist Hall in London Photograph: Facundo Arrizabalaga/EPA

    Philip Cowley, who teaches politics at Queen Mary University of London, has 10 things be wary of today.

    Reuters has followed up that front page promise by the German tabloid Bild to recognise England’s disputed goal in the 1966 world cup final.

    Germany’s Bild newspaper promised on Thursday that Germans would not hog hotel sunloungers and would ditch their goalkeeper for the next penalty shootout, playing on friendly stereotypes in a last-ditch plea to Britons to stay in the European Union.

    “Dear Brits, if you remain in the EU ... then we ourselves will recognise the Wembley goal,” Bild declared above a picture of Geoff Hurst’s controversial extra-time goal in the 1966 World Cup Final, when the English soccer team beat West Germany.

    Touching on decades of rivalry on the soccer pitch, the paper said Germany would go without its goalkeeper in the next penalty shootout between England and Germany.

    Germany is considered by English soccer fans to be their main sporting rival. Germany defeated England in a penalty shootout in the semi-finals of the 1990 World Cup and the semi-finals of the 1996 Euros.

    Leaning on decades of jokes between the countries, the mass-selling tabloid promised to put towels on sun loungers to reserve the best spots for Britons by the hotel pool, and to not use suntan lotion out of solidarity with sunburnt Brits.

    If Britain were to stay in the EU, Bild also pledged to supply the baddie for every James Bond film, put its clocks back one hour so they were on the same time zone as Britain and introduce an EU guideline that bans froth on beer.

    Earlier this month, Germany’s Der Spiegel published a bilingual edition of its weekly magazine in English and German containing a strong appeal for Britons to vote to remain

    Updated

    One voter said she had to be carried into a flooded polling station.

    Police said they were not expecting trouble as tens of millions of Britons are expected to vote in Thursday’s referendum.

    Despite a bitter and heated campaign, police said they expected a peaceful day. Police commanders have been issued with extensive guidance on how to minimise the chances of electoral fraud with police chiefs keen not avoid getting caught up in the rancour surrounding Brexit.

    A spokesperson for the National Police Chiefs’ Council said: “While there is currently no intelligence to suggest issues will arise around Thursday’s poll, police forces are monitoring the situation locally and putting appropriate plans in place to ensure a fair and peaceful electoral process.”

    A policeman and an official stand outside a polling station at Christ Church Church of England Primary School in Brick Lane, London.
    A policeman and an official stand outside a polling station at Christ Church Church of England Primary School in Brick Lane, London. Photograph: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images

    No voting problems reported so far in Barnet. The London borough has a lot to prove after hundreds of people, including the chief rabbi, Ephraim Mirvis, were turned away at last month’s elections after a voting register blunder.

    The Sun and the Guardian are diametrically opposed on the referendum, but both papers used views from space on their front pages to make their differing cases.

    The Sun has Britain heading for the sunny uplands on “Independence Day” - the rallying cry of leave campaigner Boris Johnson.

    While the Guardian wants us to stay in the European Union - light pollution and all.

    Meanwhile, the Mirror’s front page looks in the other direction – down a deep hole in the earth – to warn readers of what it sees as the perils of Brexit.

    Updated

    I’m handing over this live blog now to Matthew Weaver, who’ll cover the next several hours of polling day. Our live coverage runs right through to polls closing at 10pm and beyond, when Andrew Sparrow returns to catch all the results being churned out and turn them into sense. I’ll also be back on Friday morning for those key counts. Thanks for reading and for the many comments.

    A woman carries an umbrell past a polling station for the Referendum on the European Union in north London, Britain, June 23, 2016. REUTERS/Neil Hall
    It’s only a bit of rain. Photograph: Neil Hall/Reuters

    The early morning weather in Glasgow is radiantly sunny, with all that is inferred to mean for turnout.

    The Scottish papers are well aware of the importance of this country’s predicted EU-phile tendencies today, with the Scottish Daily Mail declaring that “Scotland holds the key to Brexit” and the Daily Record’s front-page banner urging readers to vote remain.

    Elsewhere Scottish party leaders have been reminding their Twitter followers to vote, while Ukip MEP David Coburn has been urging voters to #useapen in case those dastardly pencils given out at polling stations are a cunning ploy from remain to (literally) rub out his side’s support.

    We’ve yet to see how committed pro-independence supporters in Scotland react to Farage et al co-opting the hashtag #independenceday.

    As the UK votes on whether to stay in the EU or leave, the Guardian sent seven photographers to capture the mood in various European communities who have made their home in the UK, from a Greek Orthodox church to a German bierkeller.

    Whichever way you’re voting, these images are a beautiful way to kick off your day:

    There’s only one important item on the agendas of investors across the world today. Britain is heading to the polls after a lengthy, bitterly fought campaign to decide if she stays in the European Union, or should leave.

    Traders in the City are preparing for a lengthy shift – perhaps staying late into the night, or returning to the office early tomorrow morning.

    Friday is likely to be one of the most dramatic and volatile trading sessions in many years, especially if the public choose to leave the EU. Analysts have predicted that the pound could slump by 15%, while shares would probably suffer big losses.

    Voting has just begun, with pollsters saying that the result is hard to call – especially as around 10% of voters are still undecided.

    If you’re planning to stay up for the results tonight, you need to plot your day carefully. Sleep might, after all, be needed at some point. So my colleague Jessica Elgot has come up with this nifty hour-by-hour guide, starting from 10pm:

    Polls will close, and on election nights this is normally the moment broadcasters show their exit polls and make their projection for the night ahead.

    However, that won’t happen this time as there’s no exit poll for this referendum. Some banks are said to have commissioned private exit polls, but they will be kept for their employees.

    So if anyone tells you they know what’s going to happen at this stage, they’re a chancer, unless they are an eagle-eyed watcher of sterling derivative markets. Sky News has commissioned a survey from YouGov of people previously polled, asking how they voted on the day. This will be released at 10pm, but this is not, repeat not, an exit poll and shouldn’t be treated like one.

    Of course, it’s not just London and south-east England that have weather. Other parts of the UK are also entitled to have weather. Theirs is rather better today:

    With the polls telling us that around 10% of voters are still unsure how they will cast their ballot, you could perhaps do worse – OK, not much worse – than go by the roll of a dice.

    (Pedantic readers, please note: I know it should be a die, but that reads oddly and I’m trying to keep things cheerful.)

    Voter Andy Roe tells the Oxford Times that he’ll decide by tossing his homemade cube:

    The dice idea came into my head when David Cameron said ‘we must not roll a dice to decide out children’s future’. Everybody will be doing that because of misinformation. Most people will be metaphorically throwing a dice – we don’t know what will happen either way.

    Here he is with his unnecessarily large cube. Democracy’s a funny thing.

    Will rain in London and south-east England put off voters today? Spectacular thunder and lightning overnight might have caused a few to oversleep this morning, but the bigger problem is likely to be travel disruption caused by heavy downfalls and flash flooding in some areas.

    The London Fire Brigade says it received a day’s worth of calls in just an hour and a half to reports of weather-related incidents including lightning striking property, flooded homes and businesses and rising waters trapping vehicles.

    The sky seen lit up by a spectacular lightning storm on June 22, 2016 in Kent, England.
    The sky seen lit up by a spectacular lightning storm in Kent. Photograph: Graham Mitchell /Barcroft Images

    On the London underground, the District line, DLR and Overground were all suspended or delayed because of flooding. Gatwick Express southbound services have been suspended, and South West Trains, Southern and TFL Rail are also suffering major delays.

    Outside London and south-east England, the weather is expected to be fine and settled today.

    Morning briefing

    Yes, it’s here: the day you’ve been dreaming of/dreading; the day you didn’t believe would ever really happen. Polling stations open this morning for those who haven’t already posted back their ballots (hello, decisive and organised voters!) to cast their cross to remain in the European Union or leave.

    Here I’ve rounded up all you need to know for the long day ahead. Then this live blog – steered by me and a cast of colleagues – will take you through until polls close this evening, at which point Andrew Sparrow climbs into his seat for a night of results.

    Do come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.

    The big picture

    The last few hours have been strewn with final pleas – and if the polls are correct in saying the percentage of those voters still undecided could be in double figures, there might yet be receptive ears for those pleas to fall upon. So here they are, in a nutshell.

    David Cameron: “It is a fact that our economy will be weaker if we leave and stronger if we stay … Put jobs first, put the economy first.”

    Boris Johnson: “Democracy is vital but it only works when you can kick the buggers out when they make a mistake. If we vote to leave we can take back control of our democracy and our immigration policy.”

    Nicola Sturgeon: “I believe in independence for countries but I also believe independent countries must work together for the greater good … If we vote remain, we protect them; if we don’t vote remain, then we put all of these things at risk.”

    Nicola Sturgeon at Edinburgh airport.
    Nicola Sturgeon at Ed-IN-burgh airport. See? Photograph: Clodagh Kilcoyne/Reuters

    Gordon Brown: “This is not the Britain I know, this is not the Britain I love. The Britain I know is better than the Britain of these debates, of insults, of posters.”

    Yvette Cooper: “What the leave campaign have done is push lies and also pit human beings against other human beings. That is what is wrong, immoral and just not British.”

    Andrea Leadsom: “Tomorrow we will either wake up to the bright freedom of our independence day, or to the humdrum drudgery of just another day under the newly triumphant eye of the Brussels bureaucracy.”

    Nigel Farage: “Let’s stop pretending what this European project is: they have an anthem, they are building an army, they have already got their own police force, and of course they have got a flag. At the end of the day … when people vote they have to make a decision – which flag is theirs?”

    Nigel Farage, the leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party makes his final speech of the EU referendum campaign, in LondonNigel Farage, the leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), makes his final speech of the EU referendum campaign, in London, Britain June 22, 2016. REUTERS/Toby Melville
    Nigel Farage: he’s not flagging. Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

    John Major: “If our nation does vote to leave … we will be out, out for good, diminished as an influence upon the world, a truly Great Britain shrunk down to a little England, perhaps without Scotland, perhaps with a grumpy Wales, and certainly with a Northern Ireland divided from the south by the border controls that would then be the edge of the European Union.”

    Iain Duncan Smith: “David Cameron is colluding with the EU and lying to the British people. Families are suffering the consequences of uncontrolled migration – a direct result of the EU’s obsession with freedom of movement.”

    Jean-Claude Juncker: “Out means out. British policymakers and British voters have to know that there will be no kind of renegotiation.”

    Tim Farron: “You’ve got to hold and give but do it at the right time. You can be slow or fast but you must get to the line. They’ll always hit you and hurt you, defend and attack. There’s only one way to beat them, get round the back.”

    (And in case you didn’t know why the remain campaign was reminiscing fondly about John Barnes.)

    You should also know:

    Poll position

    There won’t be official exit polls this evening, so the last-ditch forecasts are all we’ll have until the real results land. And those final polls tell us that remain is ahead, that leave is ahead, and that it’s neck-and-neck.

    • ComRes for the Daily Mail and ITV News puts remain on 48%, leave on 42% and undecideds on 11% (yes, that’s 101% – let’s assume there’s some rounding here). With undecideds lopped off, it becomes remain 54% to leave 46%.
    • YouGov gives In a two-point cushion, with remain leading leave by 51% to 49%.
    • Opinium swung a notch the other way, with leave on 45%, remain on 44% and 9% still to make up their minds.
    • And a final TNS poll also edges the Outers ahead, with leave on 43%, remain on 41% and 16% not decided or not voting at all.
    • The FT poll of polls rounds off the campaign with remain on 47% and leave on 45%.

    Number Cruncher Politics – which stood out in last year’s general election for actually predicting a Conservative victory – now puts the probability of a remain win at 74%.

    What happens next

    Don’t expect too much today, bar politicians and voters heading to polling stations. (Nonetheless, stick with the live blog, won’t you?) It all hots up after 10pm, when voting stops and counting starts. So, in Friday timings:

    • 00.00-00.30: Expect Sunderland to declare. They’re always super quick. Other authorities, including Wandsworth and the City of London, are also due to report early.
    • 2am sees a big tranche of announcements, with 22 councils due to speak up around now.
    • By 3am, we’ll be two-fifths of the way through. Stay strong. Drink caffeine.
    • At 3.30am we should hear from a number of Scottish authorities, including Edinburgh and Aberdeen.
    • 4am: 88 authorities announce their counts. We might wonder if we can make a guess at this point. Don’t hold us to that.
    • 5am: 90% of the way there. You might start to think about sleep. Hang on.
    • By 8am, we really should know the result. Have breakfast. Toast with a bucks fizz. Drown sorrows. Call in sick. Go to bed.

    Read these

    Paul Mason, writing on Medium, says a vote to remain is not a mandate for the “neoliberal, anti-democratic” EU:

    On Friday, with the referendum over, I will join with radical and progressive movements across Europe to oppose your austerity strategy and the political cant that justifies it – aka neoclassical economics. And I will go on fighting the austerity imposed by the UK government …

    I hope remain wins tomorrow. But the problem will still be there: neoliberal austerity promoted by the European Union is destroying the values of Europe. A generation of young people is being taught to despair and fear the future.

    For this reason I will push for a mandatory re-run of a referendum on EU membership every seven years. I encourage the peoples of all other countries to exercise this right regularly.

    Juliet Samuel in the Telegraph writes in defence of the referendum campaign:

    For all the fear and anger and viciousness, I believe voters will make the right decision. I’m not referring to which way they’ll vote. I mean that voters broadly understand, either instinctively or rationally, what the arguments are and where they stand. We’ve heard time and time again in this campaign how ‘confused’ the public is and how desperate for ‘facts’ voters are. Esteemed commentators have wrongly concluded that this makes people unqualified to vote on such a serious matter.

    The opposite is true. The insatiable desire for ‘facts’, the endless letters and phone-ins and questions, tell us that voters know they are not hearing definitive predictions, but points of view and spin. They would like certainties, but they have not heard anything that amounts to one. And so they know that their vote in the referendum is really just a judgment call: whom do I trust? What risk can I bear? And, fundamentally: what do I value?

    The view from Gibraltar: pay-per-view binoculars at the southern tip of the peninsula.
    The view from Gibraltar: pay-per-view binoculars at the southern tip of the peninsula. Photograph: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Max Colchester and Jenny Gross in the Wall Street Journal win fascinating fact of the day with news that residents of the Isle of Man cannot vote in the referendum (but Gibraltarians can):

    The debate over Brexit, as Britain’s potential exit from the EU is known, isn’t simple. Neither is figuring out who gets to cast a vote.

    During world war one, the UK passed laws allowing ‘British subjects’ from across the empire to vote in UK general elections. The empire crumbled but the rights live on. People from some 53 countries can vote in the referendum as long as they live in the UK or Gibraltar, a British territory off the tip of southern Spain. People residing in Gibraltar can’t vote in general elections but got a pass for this one …

    The Isle of Man counts as abroad … Today, it is a ‘self-governing Crown dependency’, which means it isn’t part of the UK, even though Britain is responsible for its foreign affairs.

    The day in a tweet

    Well played, Germany: they don’t think it’s all over.

    If today were a song ...

    All the polls would tell us it has to be Europe’s The Final Countdown. But no! What do the polls know, anyway. Let’s go for the Hokey Cokey instead: in, out, shake it all about. That’s what it’s all about.

    And another thing

    Would you like a Friday morning email on the referendum result? Sign up here!

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