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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

EU referendum: Vote Leave launches video attacking Cameron's integrity - Politics live

Vote Leave video attacking Cameron’s integrity.

Afternoon summary

  • Vote Leave has put David Cameron’s integrity at the heart of the EU referendum campaign, saying he cannot be trusted to keep his word on Turkey. It did so in an attack video released shortly after Michael Gove, the justice secretary and Vote Leave campaign committee co-convenor, gave a briefing to publicise clams that staying in the EU would lead to the NHS being overwhelmed by migrants from Turkey and other countries set to join. The Vote Leave claims have been roundly dismissed by Remain, not least because Gove’s Vote Leave colleague Boris Johnson recently said that Turkish accession would not happen in the foreseeable future. But the video shows that the split within the cabinet and the Conservative party over the EU is becoming deeper, more bitter and more personal, because some of Cameron’s cabinet colleagues are now effectively questioning his honesty. Number 10 has not responded to the attack video, but Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary, has dismissed the NHS/Turkey claims. He said:

These figures are very often just plucked from thin air and they are not designed to inform, they are designed to confuse. We’ve made absolutely clear that we won’t contemplate further member states joining the EU until their economies have developed to such a level that they are at least at the European Union average.

Gove and Vote Leave have also been accused of aping Ukip and resorting to xenophobic scaremongering, even though until recently they were distancing themselves from the immigration-focused Leave strategy that Nigel Farage has long been championing.

  • Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European commission, has said the British will not get friendly treatment from the EU if they leave because they will be seen as “deserters”. See 1.48pm. (All this world war two/Hitler talk from our EU referendum campaign must be catching.)
  • Donald Trump has said he has been invited to visit London by David Cameron.

That’s all from me for tonight.

Thanks for the comments.

Have a good weekend.

Updated

EU referendum reading list

Here is a short EU referendum reading list.

I reckon that the current state of opinion among those who express a view is something like: remain 55-57%, leave 43-45%. The gap probably narrows when one takes account of the greater determination of “leave” supporters to turn out to vote, to around: remain 53-55%, leave 45-47%.

However, past referendums in Britain and abroad have generally produced a late shift to the status quo, as people who make up their minds late tend to prefer the familiarity of the status quo to the risks of change. Given the character of the debate about the economic impact of Brexit, a similar shift looks likely this time.

This could lead to a significant majority in favour of the UK staying in the EU. From David Cameron’s point of view, this is just as well. A narrow 51-49% victory would be unlikely to settle the matter for long, or bring the two sides within the Conservative Party together. He probably needs a percentage majority in double digits – 10% or more – to have any chance of marginalising his anti-EU critics inside his party. The good news for the Prime Minister from this analysis is that he is currently on course to achieve it. The bad news is that it could still go wrong for him, especially if some kind of crisis erupts in the next five weeks.

For now what we do have to conclude is that collectively the latest round of polling does not provide clear evidence that a swing to Remain is in motion. The lesson of this week is that, as polling day begins to approach, it will become increasingly important to read the polls with a cool head and an open mind.

Now for what is becoming a regular feature of the focus group tour: why has Boris has been in hot water this week? Some of the participants knew Hitler had come into it somewhere, though some were not sure how (“he didn’t do one of those salutes, did he?”) and a few who had heard what he had said thought it had been in poor taste: “He’s talking about people who wanted to rule the world and send people to gas chambers.” But not for the first time, after hearing what he said in hisTelegraph interview, most thought the fuss was out of all proportion to his remarks (“bampot” though he may be). The argument that the EU was trying to unite Europe by other means where various figures in history had failed to do so by force was quite a persuasive point for some (“it would make me think again”; “Hitler wanted to rule Europe and so does Angela Merkel and Luxembourg”) and certainly a valid one to make: “He was alluding to the fact that people have tried to amalgamate Europe many times, and this is another version of it.” As for the row, “seriously, Hitler was someone in history and we shouldn’t pussyfoot about it.”

Had he made the same point without using the H-word the rumpus would have been avoided, but most did not think this was a misjudgement on Boris’s part – quite the opposite: “I think he knew what he was doing.” In their view, the same applied to David Cameron’s speech last week. If what he actually said about security led the papers to exaggerate and talk about war, that was just fine: “They’d rather get the front page. They were both happy.”

Yvette Cooper, the Labour former shadow home secretary, says Michael Gove’s comments today make him sound like a Ukip politician.

Lib Dems accuse Vote Leave of xenophobia

Meral Hussein-Ece, the Lib Dem equalities spokesperson, has condemned the Vote Leave Turkey video.

This is more desperation from Brexit and Project Fear. This is a xenophobic attack from a leave campaign that knows it is losing the debate. Stigmatising Turkey and the people who live there is a dangerous move which comes from the propaganda playbooks of 100 years ago.

One of the great things about the EU is that it encourages us to work together; instead the leave campaign are offering a world of division and distrust. This is not a future we should be fighting for.

The Vote Leave claims about how remaining in the EU could lead to the NHS being overwhelmed by migration from countries like Turkey are set out in this 35-page report (pdf).

Here is the key table.

Vote Leave table relating to EU migration and the NHS
Vote Leave table relating to EU migration and the NHS Photograph: Vote Leave

But Chris Cook, Newsnight’s policy editor, has been looking at Vote Leave figures and thinks they are flawed. He explains why on Twitter.

Here are three commentators from the left on Michael Gove’s intervention today. (See 1.25pm.)

From Peter Preston, the former Guardian editor

From the Financial Times’ Stefan Stern

From the Guardian’s Rafael Behr

Farage accuses Juncker of threatening Britain

Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has also accused Jean-Claude Juncker of threatening Britain. Speaking at the launch of the Ukip EU referendum battlebus he said:

I think Project Fear will now move on to Project Threat. It sounds to me like Mr Juncker is playing that game. What else do you expect? His whole life has been dedicated to building up these false, undemocratic structures in Brussels. I don’t dislike him personally, but politically I think he is somewhat out of date.

This is the same line that Vote Leave is using (see 3.50pm), but that is not because Farage and Vote Leave are particularly close.

Farage also dismissed the intervention from more than 250 arts celebrities arguing in favour of remain, saying they were “luvvies” with expensive houses.

Nigel Farage launching the Ukip EU referendum campaign bus.
Nigel Farage launching the Ukip EU referendum campaign bus. Photograph: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images
Farage on the battlebus.
Farage on the battlebus. Photograph: David Levene for the Guardian

Vote Leave accuse Juncker of 'trying to intimidate the British people'

Gisela Stuart, the Labour MP and chair of Vote Leave, has claimed that Jean-Claude Juncker’s comments about the UK being treated as a “deserter” by the EU if it leaves (see 1.48pm) show he is “trying to intimidate the British people”. She said:

Another day, another threat from those trying to intimidate the British people into voting to remain in the failing EU - but these extraordinary comments are a new low.

The referendum offers a once in a lifetime opportunity for the British people to have a say over our future relationship with the European Union. They want facts, and reasoned arguments, to inform their decision - and this kind of intimidation is unwelcome and unwarranted.

And here is the Labour MP Chuka Umunna, a Britain Stronger in Europe spokesman, responding to the Vote Leave claims about Turkey.

The opportunistic hypocrisy of the leave campaign has reached new depths. Boris Johnson’s own comments expose their central claims as being a lie.

Vote Leave know there will be no new EU countries in the foreseeable future but are lying because they have lost the economic argument.

The truth is, you do not control immigration by damaging the economy and sending Britain back to recession, which experts say would happen if we vote to leave.

Here is the Conservative MEP and Brexit campaigner Daniel Hannan responding to Jean-Claude Juncker’s comments.

Updated

'Gove mouthing the words, but Farage writing the tune' - Remain source on Vote Leave

Here is a senior Remain source on the new Vote Leave video.

Michael Gove may be mouthing the worlds but Nigel Farage is writing the tune. They originally had lofty ambitions of talking about the economy but, since they have lost that argument so catastrophically, they have reached for the Ukip playbook to create fictitious stories to scare people about immigrants and release video nasties about Turkish people.

Updated

'It's not going to happen in the foreseeable future' - Boris Johnson on Turkey joining EU

It is a good job Vote Leave did not get Boris Johnson to give the briefing about its figures suggesting the NHS could be overwhelmed by the impact of Turkey, and other countries, joining the EU in the next few years. As Lucy Thomas, Britain Stronger in Europe’s deputy director points out on Twitter, only recently Johnson told LBC that Turkish accession was not going to happen.

Johnson said the chances of Turkey joining the EU were “between nil and 20%”. When pressed, he said: “It’s not going to happen in the foreseeable future”. And, even if it did happen, Turkey would not get the right to free movement of labour within the rest of the EU, he said.

Vote Leave attacks Cameron's integrity, saying he cannot be trusted on Turkey

Vote Leave has released a new video backing up the claim, also made by Michael Gove in his briefing earlier, that Turkey is going to join the EU.

But there are two things about the video that make it particularly provocative, and liable to take the ongoing Conservative party civil war over Europe at least one notch higher up the DefCon scale.

First, this is not really about Turkey at all, but about David Cameron.

And, second, Vote Leave are not just making a point about policy. They are attacking Cameron’s integrity. This is routine in elections, of course, but the Vote Leave campaign is headed by Tories like Michael Gove and Boris Johnson and they are now effectively saying that their party leader is not a man who can be relied upon to do what he says.

Here is a quote from the voiceover.

David Cameron cannot be trusted on Turkey ... David Cameron now claims Turkey won’t join the EU, but that is not what he said before ... We are giving £2bn to Macedonia, Serbia, Albania, Montenegro and Turkey to join the EU. You can’t trust David Cameron on Turkey. If you want to save the NHS, vote Leave. Let’s take back control.

Vote Leave’s Turkey video

The video is also illustrated with pictures of deputies fighting in the Turkish parliament which seem intended to reinforce particularly negative stereotypes of that country.

Still from the Vote Leave Turkey video
Still from the Vote Leave Turkey video Photograph: Vote Leave

Updated

NHS should consider case for charging some patients, says NHS trust chief executive

The head of an NHS trust told the World at One that the NHS should consider the case for charging patients in the light of the problems funding the service highlighted by today’s deficit figures. (See 1.34pm.) Susan Acott, chief executive of Dartford and Gravesham NHS Trust, told the programme:

I think it’s something that modern countries need to consider and because we have our cherished NHS I don’t think that should prevent sensible and intelligent discussions around whether free at the point of use is always the right thing to do.

If you look at examples like dentistry and ophthalmology we often contribute, so I certainly think it’s a question that needs to be asked.

Here is the full text of the Le Monde interview with Jean-Claude Juncker.

As well as the remarks quoted earlier (see 1.48pm), the European commission president said that, if Britain votes to remain in the EU, they would have to implement the proposals agreed during David Cameron’s renegotiation. But Juncker also included a line about how no-one was actually talking about it during the campaign (“dont personne ne parle dans la campagne du référendum”). It sounds a little as if he is complaining that it was all a bit of a waste of time.

(Juncker obviously hasn’t read my analysis of the ComRes poll, which argues that the renegotiation may have been more helpful to Cameron than people realise.)

Vote Leave’s claims about migration from the EU overwhelming the NHS are based on the assumption that five new countries, including Turkey, would join the EU within the next four years.

The BBC’s Reality Check says that is unlikely.

Earlier this month David Cameron said he did not think Turkey would join the EU “for decades”.

Kinnock accuses Gove of 'staggering hypocrisy' over NHS

Lord Kinnock, the former Labour leader and a leading Remain campaigner, has rejected Michael Gove’s claims about EU immigration overwhelming the NHS. (See 1.25pm.) As the BBC reports he said:

Analysis by the Treasury shows that leaving the EU’s single market of 500m people would devastate our economy, leaving a £36bn black hole in the public finances. This would leave less money available for our health service. Michael Gove’s hypocrisy is staggering. Just a year ago, he admitted that our NHS relies on over 100,000 workers from the EU, and supported the living wage that benefits low-paid British workers. Now he’s turned his back on both. Patients, doctors and nurses are stronger thanks to our membership of the EU. Leaving would be a leap in the dark that would put our NHS at risk.

Lord Kinnock.
Lord Kinnock. Photograph: Rex Features

Juncker says UK will not get friendly treatment from EU if it votes to leave

Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European commission, has said that the UK will not get friendly treatment from the EU if it votes to leave. In an interview with the French newspaper Le Monde, asked how Brussels would respond to a Leave vote, Juncker said:

Deserters will not be welcomed with open arms.

If the British say no - which I hope they will not - community life will not carry on as before. The United Kingdom will have to accept being considered as a third party, which does not have its hair stroked in the right direction.

Jean-Claude Juncker
Jean-Claude Juncker Photograph: Markus Schreiber/AP

Juncker’s “hair stroked in the right direction” metaphor is an unusual one. Perhaps he had someone in mind ...

Boris Johnson’s hair
Boris Johnson’s hair Photograph: Matt Cardy/Getty Images

UPDATE: A reader tells me that “caresser pas dans le sens du poil” is actually a common French expression.

Updated

NHS trusts in England run up record decifit of £2.45bn

And here is Denis Campbell’s story on the NHS trust deficit figures.

And here is how it starts.

The NHS in England has run up a record deficit of £2.45bn – the biggest overspend in its history – as it struggles to cope with a surge in demand for care while suffering a major budget squeeze.

Official figures released on Friday by NHS Improvement showed that NHS trusts in England, which predominantly run hospitals, ended the 2015-16 financial year £461m worse than the organisation had forecast. The combined deficit is almost three times bigger than the £822m overspend incurred the year before, and more than 20 times the size of the £115m deficit as recently as 2013-14.

Gove says immigration will make NHS 'unsustainable' if UK stays in EU

Here is my colleague Rowena Mason’s story about Michael Gove’s briefing.

And here is how it starts.

Michael Gove has claimed that the NHS will no longer be sustainable if Britain stays in the EU because an immigrant population the size of Scotland could come to the UK by 2030.

The justice secretary and leading Brexit campaigner said if the UK votes to remainin the EU on 23 June he would press the government for an emergency cash injection for the NHS, while if it voted to leave he would push for hundreds of millions of pounds currently sent to the EU to be spent on the health service.

Gove’s speech coincided with official figures showing the NHS in England has run up a record deficit of £2.45bn – the biggest overspend in its history – as it struggles to cope with a surge in demand for care while suffering a major budget squeeze.

The Vote Leave immigration forecasts are likely to be strongly challenged by the remain campaign as they presume that five new countries will join the EU within four years. David Cameron has said Turkey is unlikely to join the EU in his lifetime.

EU referendum polling has shown a marked contrast between the findings of online polls and phone polls. The Guardian’s pollster, ICM, uses both methods and its most recent figures had the phone poll giving Remain a 10-point lead, but the online survey putting Remain ahead by just four points.

Some commentators think phone polls will turn out to be more accurate. But YouGov (an online pollster) has published some research which it says suggests online polling is more accurate. The YouGov article, by its chief innovation officer Andy Morris, argues that the phone polls are giving too much representation to the well educated.

Here’s an extract.

There are some major demographic correlators with how people intend to vote, for example age, social grade, and geography, all play extremely important roles but there is no driver more important than education. The longer time spent in education, the more likely you are to vote ‘remain’ ...

With phone polls under-representing the less well educated so dramatically it is not surprising that they are skewing towards ‘remain’. The online polls are doing a better job of finding representative samples and therefore a better job of representing the views of the population.

Ryanair is running an advertising campaign offering people cheap flights to the UK from Europe on the day of the EU referendum, or the day before, so that people can “fly home to vote Remain”.

But Vote Leave has reported them to the police, claiming this is a breach of the law relating to election bribes. My colleague John Plunkett has the details.

If you want more details of the letter signed by more than 250 leading creative figures - 282, to be precise - there are here, on the Britain Stronger in Europe website.

The full list of names is on the website, but here are some of the most prominent ones, as selected by Britain Stronger in Europe.

Actors: Bill Nighy; Brian Blessed; Chiwetel Ejiofor; Dame Kristin Scott Thomas; Helena Bonham Carter; Jamie Bell; Sir Derek Jacobi; Sir Patrick Stewart; Sophie Okonedo; Steve Coogan;

Music: Alt J (Gus Unger-Hamilton, Joe Newman, Thom Green); Amir Amor and Piers Aggett (Rudimental); David Joseph, chairman and chief executive of Universal Music; Franz Ferdinand (Alex Kapranos, Bob Hardy, Nick McCarthy, Paul Thomson); Hot Chip; Jessie Ware; Paloma Faith

Fashion: Alexandra Shulman, editor-in-chief of British Vogue; Dame Vivienne Westwood; Daniel Rubin, executive chairman of The Dune Group; Imran Amed, founder and CEO The Business of Fashion;

Film: Eric Fellner; Richard Curtis; Steve McQueen; Tim Bevan; Tom Hooper

Theatre: David Lan, artistic director of the Young Vic; Nicholas Hytner, director; Paul Roseby, director of the National Youth Theatre; Sir Tom Stoppard, playwright and screenwriter; Sir Matthew Bourne, artistic director of New Adventures;

Arts: Carol Ann Duffy, poet laureate; Charles Saumarez Smith, secretary and chief executive of the Royal Academy of Arts; Chris Dercon, director of Tate Modern; Sir Anish Kapoor, sculptor

Authors: Dame Hilary Mary Mantel; John le Carré; Kathy Lette; Philip Pullman

David Cameron is going to appear on Robert Peston’s new ITV show on Sunday, ITV has announced.

The Green party has announced details of how its leadership contest will be run following Natalie Bennett’s announcement that she is standing down. Nominations will open on 1 June and close on 30 June. The campaign period will run from 1 July to 24 July, and that will be followed by a one-month balloting period. The new leader will be unveiled at the party conference in early September.

Normally David Cameron would be accompanied on a visit to somewhere like Abbey Road by his own culture secretary, not someone who used to do the job for Tony Blair. (See 11.28am.)

But John Whittingdale, the current culture secretary, is a Brexiteer. According to Guido Fawkes, he has been sent to China on government business - meaning that he is not available to hit the airwaves to argue back against the 250-plus culture celebrities saying the UK should stay in the EU.

Back to Abbey Road, and David Cameron has been doing his bit to try to recreate the image on the Beatles’ Abbey Road album.

But the Mirror has concluded that he “monumentally screwed it up” because it was just he and Tessa Jowell, the Labour former culture secretary, posing for the picture, not a fab four.

David Cameron walks on Beatles’ Abbey Road crossing

Speaking about his visit, Cameron said:

When it comes to creativity, British talent and expertise has made this country the envy of the world.

Whether it is music or film, art or video games, the UK leads Europe. More than most, this is a sector that thrives on being open to the world outside.

Whether it’s bringing in talent, filming on location or simply having access to the single market of 500 million people across Europe.

The results of Creative Industries Federation’s survey are clear: we are better off in a reformed European Union than out on our own. To leave would be a leap in the dark.

Updated

5 things we've learnt from the ComRes EU referendum poll

Here is more on the ComRes EU referendum poll - five things we’ve learnt.

1 - If the poll is right, Remain are winning the battle to frame the EU referendum debate. In an election, framing the terms of the debate is crucial. If voters thought the 2015 general election was about who was most in touch with the concerns of ordinary voters, Ed Miliband would have become prime minister. But instead they decided it was about who could be trusted most on the economy, and who would make the best prime minister, and in that contest David Cameron won. And that is why the ‘what factors will affect your EU referendum vote?’ chart (see 10.03am) is so important.

ComRes asked about eight factors. Four of them are factors where Remain is almost certainly winning. Three are factors where Leave clearly has the advantage. And one is probably neutral.

All four of the Remain issues have become more important in the views of voters since February, with the economy - by far the most important one - massively more important. It is now cited as important by 55% of respondents, up 17 points from February

But two of the three Leave issues have become less important.

Here are the key figures.

Remain issues

The economy - Up 17 points from February

Ability of citizens to live and work in EU - Up 4 points

British influence on world stage - Up 2 points

Uncertainty created by Brexit - Up 6 points

Leave issues

Control over EU migrants coming to UK - Down 2 points

Control over British laws - Up 4 points

Benefits for EU migrants - Down 8 points

Either way issues

National security - Up 4 points

2 - David Cameron’s EU renegotiation may have been more useful to the Remain camp than people think. The renegotiation itself did not produce any real benefit for Remain in the polls and Cameron hardly ever mentions it now, with the result that it was become common to hear people argue that it was a waste of time. But in fact the figures quoted above suggest it had quite a big impact in driving down concern about EU migrants claiming benefits as a referendum issue.

3 - And Cameron’s ‘Brexit could lead to war’ warning may not have failed quite as badly as the poll headlines suggest. The Daily Mail says “the public have emphatically dismissed the prime minister’s argument that, if the UK quits the EU, the continent will be at greater risk of war and genocide” because the poll suggests nine out of 10 people disagree. But the ComRes question asked people if they thought “a major war” in Europe would be more likely if the UK left the EU. Cameron was talking about the increased risk of conflicts like those in Ukraine or the Balkans which don’t really fit the description “major war”. And 11% of people do think Brexit would make “major war” more likely.

4 - Immigrations remains by far the best issue for Leave. Even though there has been a huge increase in the number of people citing the economy as a key referendum issue (up to 55%), it is still only just ahead of immigration (51%). And the poll shows people are very concerned about the government estimate that 3m people could come to the UK from the EU over the next 14 years. This is from the ComRes press release.

Leave voters overwhelmingly (87%) think that the 3m people coming to UK used in the Treasury estimates is “too high”, while Remain voters are split: 42% say it is too high while half (49%) say it is about right.

Remain voters are however twice as likely to think this level of immigration would increase pressure on the NHS and public services (51%) than think it would help to better fund and staff the NHS and other public services (26%).

5 - Women are significantly more pro-Remain then men. This is from the ComRes release.

A definitive trend has emerged that women are significantly more likely than men to say they would vote to Remain in the EU. At 15 points, the Remain lead amongst women is twice as large as it is among men (seven points – 51% to 44%).

Updated

Andy Burnham’s bid to become Labour’s candidate for mayor of Greater Manchester suffered a setback this morning. Terry Christian, the Mancunian broadcaster, told the Today programme that he thought Burnham was now like “a tourist in the north”.

I do feel a bit sorry for [Burnham] because it’s almost like he’s a tourist in the North nowadays, the way he talks about the north. He said nobody in the North would say they wanted to be a lawyer or a doctor. It’s a bit like he wants to be King of the North now, without getting all Game of Thrones on you. He doesn’t want to be warming the bench for Jeremy Corbyn any more so he wants to come up here. I just think it’s a bit cynical.

Christian also rejected the suggestion that he was opposed to Burnham’s bid because Burnham was from Liverpool.

It’s nothing to do with him coming from Merseyside. It’s just this idea that if you lack the charisma to win the Labour party leadership from someone like Jeremy Corbyn, then we are in trouble. Manchester deserves someone with a bit more oomph about them.

But Christian did say Burnham was “a lovely bloke”.

It is worth pointing out that Burnham did not actually say nobody in the north would say they wanted to be a lawyer or a doctor. Our story about what he did say is here.

Terry Christian.
Terry Christian. Photograph: Christopher Thomond for the Guardian

Here are the key figures from the ComRes poll.

These are the replies when people were asked: “Thinking about the referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU, which three of the following will be the most important to you in deciding which way to vote?”

In case you cannot read under the blue shading, the figures in the first column are the figures for February 2016. The figures in the column on the far right are from the poll released late last night.

ComRes poll
ComRes poll Photograph: ComRes

Here is the ComRes news release about its poll. It was a phone poll, not an internet one.

And here are the tables (pdf).

Updated

Here is a Guardian video of the Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau explaining why he thinks the UK should stay in the EU.

Canadian PM Justin Trudeau urges Britain to remain in EU

Good morning. It’s Friday, but there is no rest for the wicked, or those involved in the EU referendum campaign - categories that may or may not overlap, according to your views.

Here are the latest EU referendum developments.

  • Justin Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister, has joined those world leaders saying the UK should stay in the EU. He told Reuters:

More unity is a path toward greater prosperity. We have a great relationship with a strong and united Europe and certainly hope that that continues. Britain is always going to have clout, it’s just obviously amplified by its strength as part of the EU. I believe we’re always better when we work as closely as possible together and separatism, or division, doesn’t seem to be a productive path for countries.

He also played down the suggestion that the UK would be able to negotiate a Canada-style free trade deal with the EU anytime soon. He said Canada had spend 10 years negotiating its deal, and it still had to come into force.

There’s nothing easy or automatic about [negotiating a trade deal]. So I think there’s a bit of an oversimplification of the story happening there.

  • David Cameron has been visiting Abbey Road Studios to highlight the fact that more than 250 of Britain’s best-known musicians, actors, artists, and writers have signed a joint letter saying Britain should stay in the EU. Here is the Guardian story about the letter.

And here are some tweets from the visit.

  • A ComRes poll for the Daily Mail suggests that there has been a sharp increase in people saying the economy will be an important factor in deciding how people will vote in the EU referendum.

And poll suggests Remain has a nine-point lead.

But the poll also shows that voters do not believe leaving the EU increase the chances of war, as Cameron suggested in a speech last week. This is the poll finding that the Daily Mail has focused on in its story.

Here is the agenda for the day.

10.30am: Michael Gove, the justice secretary and co-convenor of the Vote Leave campaign committee, holds a briefing. It is embargoed until 1pm.

12pm: NHS deficit figures are published.

2pm: Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, launches the Ukip EU referendum bus.

As usual, I will be covering the breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I will post a summary at lunchtime and another in the afternoon.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time. Alternatively you could post a question to me on Twitter.

If you think there are any voices that I’m leaving out, particularly political figures or organisations giving alternative views of the stories I’m covering, do please flag them up below the line (include “Andrew” in the post). I can’t promise to include everything, but I do try to be open to as wide a range of perspectives as possible.

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