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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Haroon Siddique and Andrew Sparrow

Blair: it is 'not yet a proven' that Corbyn can win an election - Politics live

Britain should not become anti-immigrant, says Tony Blair

Afternoon summary

  • Britain Stronger in Europe has been accused of patronising younger voters with a video intended to encourage them to vote Remain which implies they can’t spell.

This is from the Conservative MP James Cleverly, who backs Brexit.

That’s all from me for today.

Thanks for the comments.

Jeremy Corbyn has been speaking at the PCS conference in Brighton. Here are some tweets about his speech.

Cutting EU migration would lead to lower growth and higher taxes, says NIESR

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has today published a paper looking at the impact of cutting immigration on growth. The NIESR is describing it as “the most comprehensive analysis of the long-term impacts of immigration on the UK economy to date”.

The report models what might happen to the economy over the next 50 years under two conditions, a Remain net migration scenario (based on current longterm projections) and a Leave one (assuming net migration from EU countries will be cut by two thirds).

It finds that, under the Leave scenario, GDP per head would be lower, but not massively lower. By 2065 it would be 1% lower than otherwise, the report says.

But post-tax wages would be 2% lower than otherwise, the report says. That is because the reduction in immigration would result in the population being proportionately older, with the result that government spending as a proportion of GDP would be higher, and taxes would be higher (£400 per person higher, in 2014 prices).

Here is the full 38-page report (pdf). And here is an extract from the news release.

The paper compares “Leave” and “Remain” scenarios for migration to the UK after the referendum, and assesses their macroeconomic impacts. “Leave” assumes that net migration from the EU countries will decline by two thirds compared to “Remain”. By 2065, in the Leave scenario, aggregate GDP and GDP per person are 9% and 1% lower respectively compared to the “Remain” scenario. Reduced migration after leaving the EU has a significant negative impact on the public finances, primarily because of a higher dependency ratio, which is the fraction of young and old people of the total population. Accordingly government spending rises as a share of GDP by 1.1 percentage points in 2065, requiring an increase in taxation of about £400 per person (2014 pounds). As a result, post-tax wages are 2% lower in the Leave scenario.

And here is a quote from Katerina Lisenkova, one of the report’s two authors. She said:

Our research shows that lower migration has an overall negative effect on the UK economy. In general EU immigrants benefit the UK economy for two main reasons – they are on average much younger and are more highly qualified than the general population.

Updated

Ken Clarke says London is 'the money laundering capital of the world'

MPs are still debating the Queen’s speech and Kenneth Clarke, the Conservative former chancellor, has just finished his contribution. In a wide-ranging speech, which included a passage about how corporate pay levels being far too high, Clarke said he was particularly pleased the speech included measures to tackle money laundering, because London is “the money laundering capital of the world.

In the fight against crime in this country we are very bad at dealing with white collar crime. There is growing awareness today that if you wish to rob a bank, you go to the Libor market. You don’t put a balaclava on and pick up a shotgun, that’s much less profitable. At last we are starting to do something about it. I welcome this bill [the criminal finances bill] and I hope I can be reassured it will tackle not just tax evasion, which is quite rightly high on the public agenda, but money laundering. London is still the money laundering capital of the world. If you’re an African despot or a serious international corrupt criminal, London is the best place to put your money because you can trust the bankers to look after it and not steal it from you. I welcome the fact that we are going to improve the reporting of suspicious activities.

Kenneth Clarke.
Kenneth Clarke. Photograph: BBC

Updated

Farage says Cameron's EU referendum tactics are 'pretty close to cheating'

Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has been campaigning in Dudley today. According to the Press Association, here are some of the things he has been saying.

  • Farage accused David Cameron and George Osborne of feeding people “a constant diet of lies” in the EU campaign. He also said they were “using the whole apparatus of state in a way that, frankly, is pretty close to cheating”.
  • He claimed the Remain campaign scare tactics would backfire.

In the end I just feel that all these threats may well backfire. This time last year Remain were a long way ahead. This time this year, they’re a little bit ahead.

  • He dismissed the Treasury’s claim that leaving the EU would trigger a recession.

Is there any evidence to say there won’t be a recession if we stay in? The British economy is not doing that well. Our 2% growth is funded by a population increase of half a million people a year and by massive government borrowing.

They talk about about the pound going down. The pound has been going down since July 2014. Britain is not in that great a state.

  • He said the campaign was ultimately about sovereignty, not economics.

But this isn’t about economics. I can tell you we will be better off out, he’ll tell you we’ll be better off in. Ultimately this referendum is not about trade, it’s not about money - it’s about political union. Do we wish to remain part of a political union that makes the majority of our laws?

He also appeared to criticise Vote Leave for focusing so prominently on the claim that leaving the EU could free up up to £350m a week for the NHS.

It’s all well and good to say we could have more money for the NHS but actually this referendum is about more than that. Our politicians have given away control of our country. Our message has got to be clear - we believe in this country, we believe in its people and we want out country back.

  • He claimed Cameron was being hypocritical when he claimed this morning leaving the EU could push up the cost of a holiday abroad. Farage said:

How dare Cameron talk about the cost of holidays when it’s him with air passenger duty that’s put hundreds of pounds on a family going to Florida or Disneyland or anywhere else? He’s the man that’s made holidays expensive. We do not need a European commission to have competitive air fares - it’s so typical of Cameron to make the accusation for the very thing that he himself is guilty of.

This is from Gawain Towler, a Ukip press officer.

Alan Johnson, chair of Labour In for Britain, has been taking part in a Mumsnet Q&A on the EU referendum this afternoon.

The first question he answered came from someone who asked when the plague of locusts would arrive if Britain voted for Brexit. He replied:

I can confidently reveal the date of the plague of locusts is 24th of June if we vote to leave - in which case, the plan is to grant locusts free movement, anywhere in the EU.

Alan Johnson.
Alan Johnson. Photograph: Danny Lawson/PA

ICM has released a new online EU referendum poll.

UPDATE: This is from Matt Singh’s NumbrCrunchrPolitics.

Updated

Fallon says Brexit would be 'absolutely applauded in Moscow'

Leaving the EU would be an “extraordinarily irresponsible thing to do at a very dangerous moment”, and be “absolutely applauded in Moscow”, Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, told MPs on Tuesday.

He seized the opportunity presented by an appearance before the Commons defence committee - chaired by the Brexit supporter Julian Lewis - to mount impassioned support for the UK remaining a member of the EU.

“A huge amount is hanging on the vote on 23 June not just for the people of this country but for the collective security of Europe and the West”, he told the crosssparty group of MPs.

President Putin would not have had to pay a price for annexing Crimea and destabilising eastern Ukraine without the EU, and sanctions would have been much weaker had not Britain been a member of the EU, Fallon said.

Britain was “in the lead” in getting the EU to impose tough trade and commercial sacntions on Russia, he insisted. “The fact we were there and able to lead the debate, the EU was able to ensure the toughest sanctions were imposed.”

Tough sanctions “would not have happened without the EU and would not have happened if the UK was not within it”, Fallon told the MPs.

Michael Fallon.
Michael Fallon. Photograph: REX/Shutterstock

Lunchtime summary

  • Tony Blair has expressed scepticism about Jeremy Corbyn’s ability to win a general election. In remarks at a Prospect event, the former Labour prime minister said that the far left and the far right were similar in that they were both “isolationists against free trade”, and that centre ground politicians like himself were struggling to find anything to say to people who wanted change. (See 1.22pm.)
  • Cameron has insisted the Conservatives will “come together” after the EU referendum in response to claims he could be deposed. Responding to reports that some Tory MPs will press for a confidence vote in his leadership even if he wins the EU referendum, he said:

Obviously this is such a big issue that you do see arguments between political parties... and there are going to be passionate arguments, there’s going to be strong arguments and passion on both sides.

Do I believe at the end of this we can all come together and accept the result? Absolutely I do.

The one thing all Conservatives agree on is that it is right to have this referendum, right to have this debate and right to abide by the decision of the British people.

  • Birmingham council has announced that it wants its children’s services to be run by a voluntary trust. As the Press Association reports, the department at Birmingham City Council has previously been labelled a “national disgrace” by Ofsted chief inspector Sir Michael Wilshaw. Previous high-profile cases of child deaths in the Midlands city, including those of two-year-old Keanu Williams in 2011 and seven-year-old Khyra Ishaq in 2008, had led to the department and other agencies coming under fire. Now the authority has announced a voluntary trust will run the department under a “new model” which will put “social workers at its centre”.
  • A Labour MP has claimed Russia may be bombing civilians in Syria partly in an attempt to secure a British exit from the European Union. Speaking at foreign office questions, Labour’s Geraint Davies said:

Do you accept on the Ukraine that Russian bombing of Syrian civilians to provoke refugees and to possibly tilt the balance in favour of Brexit is part of a strategy to basically fragment European resolve in terms of Ukraine?

Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary, said he did not accept this. He replied:

There is definitely a Russian strategy to try to fragment European resolve. I think it’s probably a step too far to suggest that Russia’s engagement in Syria is only designed to apply pressure over Ukraine. Russia has important and historic equities in Syria and is seeking to defend its interest there.

Updated

Corbyn calls for more 'strong women's voices' in EU referendum campaign

Harriet Harman, Labour’s former interim leader, has written to Ofcom to complain that male politicians are being allowed to dominate the EU referendum debate on the airwaves. She was highlighting this issue at an event this morning.

Harriet Harman (left) and shadow business secretary Angela Eagle speak about why women are better off in the EU at a Labour event this morning.
Harriet Harman (left) and shadow business secretary Angela Eagle speak about why women are better off in the EU at a Labour event this morning. Photograph: Lauren Hurley/PA

Jeremy Corbyn is now also saying that more women’s voices need to be heard in the EU referendum debate. In a speech to a rally in Hastings tonight he will say:

So far, the referendum debate taking place across the country, has been dominated by men, and mostly Tory men. This needs to change, we need to hear more diverse voices in this important debate, we need to hear more strong women’s voices.

Women across the country are being let down by a Conservative government that is failing on housing, failing our NHS, failing to create good quality jobs and failing even against its own economic targets.

We’re going to hear a strong woman’s voice tomorrow. David Cameron will be missing PMQs, because he is going to Japan for the G7 summit, and so PMQs will be George Osborne v Angela Eagle.

Tony Blair backed the tone of the Remain campaign saying they were mounting a strong campaign focussing on the right issues including the risks to the British economy household incomes and the country’s role in the world.

He also hinted he would be making a joint intervention with other former prime ministers Gordon Brown and Sir John Major to urge the country to stay in the EU “there is a role for former prime ministers,” he said.

Millions of EU workers face uncertainty over whether they can stay in the UK, while British expats in Europe could also lose the right to remain, own property or get free healthcare in the event of Brexit, David Cameron has claimed.

The prime minister said there was no guarantee that UK citizens abroad or EU citizens in the UK would maintain their rights to reside unless there is a vote to remain.

Brexit campaigners claim the rights of expats are preserved under the Vienna convention but a number of academic and legal opinions have argued that EU citizenship would end with Brexit.

Cameron said such rights and others to own property and get healthcare in the EU were “certain if we stay and uncertain if we leave”, while also arguing that people could have to pay £60 for a Schengen visa just to travel through other European countries.

It is the latest in a long string of warnings from Cameron about problems that could be caused by leaving the EU, which have led to fury among Tory politicians pushing for the UK to leave.

Blair says it is 'not yet a proven concept' that Corbynism can win an election

At the Prospect event this morning Tony Blair insisted that his brand of centre ground politics was not dead, but admitted that the centre ground was losing its traction and not providing answers to those that wanted an end to the status quo.

He claimed the source of some of the insurgent support for Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn was similar, saying “these people are riding the anger they are not providing the answers”.

He also challenged Corbyn, centr saying:

Let us say, it is not yet a proven concept that Corbynism can win an election. It is clear that they can take over a political party, what is not so clear to me yet is that they can take over a country.

Where fringes of left and right meet each other is essentially as isolationists against free trade. It is true that the left want to hang the bankers and the right want to clear out the immigrants, but in the much of the psychology and attitude they have got a lot in common.

He said the centre is not back into contention, arguing at present centre ground politicians “look today as if we are managers of the status quo and not changers of it”.

He also questioned the basis of Corbyn’s support in the Labour Party.

If you break down the analysis of the people who are joining the Labour party it is not clear to me those that should feel most angry about their personal situation and those joining are the same people. The world of the Twitterati is gives you a sense of belonging and a sense of insurgency. It was about shaking the system and rattling the cage. People do feel frustrated and social media gives them the ability to feel that at scale and at speed, and the centre looks as if we are saying it is all very complicated. We are not in the right conversation with people like this.

He said the centre ground should be discussing issues such as the role of technology and big data in public services, the use of monetary policy such as quantitative easing and the future of student debt.

He also dismissed the binary debate over austerity saying it misunderstands the way economy works.

Updated

Longterm expats lose court bid to be able to vote in EU referendum

Longterm British expats have lost their battle in the supreme court for the right to vote in the EU referendum, the Press Association reports. The highest court in the land upheld decisions of both the high court and court of appeal that they are not eligible to vote on June 23 because they have lived outside the UK for more than 15 years.

Blair says large-scale immigration has been good for the UK

Hello. I’m Andrew Sparrow and I’m taking over from Haroon, who has been writing the blog this morning. (I was at a meeting at school.)

Haroon has already posted some lines from Tony Blair’s Prospect event this morning (see 11.24am), but we’ve got some quotes now, so here are some of the key lines.

  • Blair said that he did not think Labour let too many migrants come top the UK. Asked whether he now accepted that too many people had come to Britain after EU enlargement, Blair replied:

Personally, I don’t. I know there is a criticism which I completely understand, which is we shouldn’t have introduced earlier than we needed to the free movement of people from eastern Europe.

But I do think with this debate we’ve got to take a step back and look at the big picture here. First of all, the advent into the European Union of the eastern European countries is of huge strategic importance to Europe and to the world and we should be proud of the fact we championed it.

Imagine the situation today if those eastern European countries weren’t in the EU. Imagine the pressure they would be under. So this is for me, the fact of enlargement in my view is a great British achievement.

  • He said large-scale immigration had been good for the UK.

I believe the people who have come into this country have contributed far more by way of taxes and by way of commitment and energy to this country than they have taken by way of benefits and the truth of the matter is the answer to Britain’s problems today is not to be anti-immigrant.

  • He said Islamic State (Isis) would only be defeated by ground forces.

There is no way of defeating these people without defeating them on the ground. Air strikes are not going to defeat Isis, they have got to be tackled on the ground.

He said that did not necessarily mean British troops doing the fighting - “our forces could be in support “ - but to defeat IS “you are going to have to go and wage a proper ground war against them”.

  • He said Europe could not afford to let Isis control a large part of Libya.

Is our objective to defeat this enemy? My answer to that is yes. That’s why, when I look at what’s happening in Libya today and I see the power of Isis in Libya today, we cannot afford as Europe to have Isis govern a large space of Libya.

We can support local forces in taking them on, but we shouldn’t be in any doubt at all that they need to be taken on and defeated on the ground, which is the place where they are fighting.

  • He said the main problem with the Iraq war was that the west failed to anticipate what would happen when Saddam Hussein was toppled. He refused to comment on the findings of the Iraq inquiry, but he said:

We underestimated profoundly the forces that were at work in the region and that would take advantage of the change once you topple the regime.

That’s the lesson. The lesson is not actually complicated, the lesson is simple - it’s that.

It’s that when you remove a dictator, out come these forces of destabilisation - whether al Qaida on the Sunni side or Iran and its militia on the other side.

Tony Blair speaking at the Prospect Britain in the World event this morning.
Tony Blair speaking at the Prospect Britain in the World event this morning. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

My colleague Heather Stewart is tweeting from a Labour event on women in the EU, where several of the party’s prominent female figures are speaking:

Vote Leave has responded to the prime minster’s claims about family holidays increasing in price in the event of Brexit.

Matthew Elliott, chief executive of Vote Leave, said:

It’s remarkable to see the prime minister talking down our country and our economy day after day.

Yesterday Nicola Sturgeon pleaded with the government to stop the negative campaigning, and urged them to stop making exaggerated claims that insult the public’s intelligence. Clearly they’re not listening.

These threats lack credibility - the pound has actually been stable in recent months as the possibility of Brexit has increased. The truth is that leaving the EU will liberate the UK and allow us to do trade deals with countries like India and China - helping our economy to grow.

The only way to take back control of our economy - as well as the £350 million we send to Brussels every week - is to Vote Leave on 23 June.

'No Russia sanctions without UK in EU'

The defence secretary, Michael Fallon, has told the Commons defence committee that leaving the EU would be an “extraordinarily irresponsible thing to do at a very dangerous moment”.

“A huge amount is hanging on the vote” (not just for the UK) but “for the collective security of Europe and the west”, he said.

Fallon claimed that there would not have been sanctions against Russia post-Crimea and Ukraine had it not been for the UK being in the EU. Russia would not have paid a price without the UK in the EU, he said.

Fallon said UK companies would have lost out to EU competitors if the UK was alone in imposing sanctions.

His exchanges were with Julian Lewis, the Tory chair of the committee and a Brexiteer, who clearly did not want the evidence session (on the Russian military threat) to veer onto the EU.

Updated

Tony Blair has been speaking about the EU referendum and other subjects at a Prospect event in London. Here is a selection of some of the most interesting things on Europe and the current state of the Labour party:

Cameron’s former policy guru told Radio 4’s Today programme earlier that Cameron’s warning about the price of holidays in the event of Brexit, was another example of the sort of “pathetic, patronising EU scares” being deployed by both sides. Hilton, who supports Brexit, told the Press Association:

You’ve got to be kidding. It’s almost like a parody. I just wish we could have a serious debate about the long-term future of how we want to be governed rather than this kind of nonsense. It just does not do anyone any favours. It just puts people off the whole political class.

The Church of Scotland is expected to back continued membership of the European Union later today during a debate at its general assembly.

The assembly has supported ongoing membership of the EU four times in the past 20 years.

The church’s 723 commissioners will be asked to give thanks for the work of the EU in promoting peace, security and reconciliation among European nations, note that the UK has been part of the EU since 1973 and believe that the UK should remain in the EU.

The last question to Cameron was about the top three reasons to stay in the EU and the impact they would have on an easyJet employee and her family.

I’m not sure the prime minister gave three reasons but one was cooperation on combatting crime and terrorism. He said it’s not enough in itself to have a border.

You have got to have information about who’s trying to cross that border ...That information you get increasingly through the EU.

His other point was a broader one about Britain retaining influence and being “great” by staying in the EU.

If we left the EU there’s still going to be a single market, there’s still going to be a bunch of people working out the regulations for airlines ...the only difficulty is we won’t be there...That is not the act of a great bold country that wants to have influence in the world. You become a rule taker, not a rule maker.

Meanwhile, in Dudley....

Brexit could prompt recession, Bank of England warns

Over in parliament, four top policymakers from the Bank of England have warned MPs that Britain could fall into recession if it votes to leave the EU.

Governor Mark Carney told the Treasury committee that the EU referendum is causing “considerable uncertainty” in the UK economy.

And Martin Weale, who sets interest rates, predicted that Brexit would probably have a materially negative impact on growth and inflation, which could trigger a recession.

This echoes the Bank’s warning in its latest inflation report, published earlier this month.

More details in our business liveblog.

Updated

Tories will reconcile post poll, Cameron claims

In response to a question from my colleague Rowena Mason about what would happen to non-British EU citizens in the UK in the event of a vote to leave and correspondingly what would happen to British citizens in the EU, Cameron says that is for the leave campaign to address

I can guarantee if we stay that their rights will be maintained ...If we were to leave I think it’s for the leave campaign to explain what they want to do.

Sky’s Beth Rigby asks the prime minister about reports that Tory MPs will seek to remove him from office after the referendum because they are unhappy about the way the campaign has been run.

He says there were always going to be arguments around such a passionate issue.

Do I believe at the end of this we can all come together and accept the result? Absolutely, I do.

Updated

In response to a question about joining the European Economic Area (EEA) instead of being in the EU, the prime minister says that the Leave campaign does not want to be in the EEA as an alternative. He warns that easyJet’s business model would be “entirely destroyed” outside the EU.

'Patriotic thing is to stay in' - Cameron

Cameron says being in the G7, G20 and the EU enhances Britain, doesn’t diminish it.

The big bold patriotic thing is to stay in the EU ...to fight for the world we want ...in a way that’s what easyJet has done.

He’s now taking questions from the audience.

Updated

David Cameron is up and running at easyJet in Luton where he is talking about the EU referendum (what else?) and where he will claim that leaving the European Union will push up family holiday prices. You can watch above.https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/735034556861022208

Some bad news for George Osborne this morning:

Here are some more details of that EU referendum poll in the Telegraph, which puts the Remain side 13 points ahead:

If you are already tired of the EU referendum debate and want to get away from it all with a quiet pint, you might want to think twice before heading to your local Wetherspoon pub.

The company’s chairman is to visit 100 of its in the next four weeks to discuss arguments for leaving the EU. the Press Association reports:

Martin, a leading campaigner for Brexit, will tell customers why he believes the UK would be better off outside the EU.

To tie in with the EU referendum vote, Wetherspoon has printed 280,000 copies of its Wetherspoon News magazine which will feature an EU special, as well as 500,000 copies of an EU magazine, offering the views of leading Remain and Leave campaigners.

Martin said: “The EU referendum is extremely important and I believe it is vital that voters are given the arguments both for and against, so they can make up their minds.

“Our Wetherspoon News EU special brings together a number of articles which I hope people will read and help them make up their mind on which way they are going to vote.

“I look forward to speaking with Wetherspoon customers during the next four weeks in our pubs across the UK as part of the EU referendum debate.”

The Print Works, a JD Wetherspoons pub.
The Print Works, a JD Wetherspoons pub. Photograph: Martin Godwin for the Guardian

The cost of a family holiday could rise by £230 and new limits on duty free could put an end to “booze cruises” to the continent if Britain votes to leave the EU, David Cameron will claim later, Rowena Mason writes.

In its new analysis, the Treasury claimed holiday prices could go up as soon as this summer because the pound is likely to fall by around 12%, making the cost of accommodation, food and drinks higher for those travelling overseas. It predicted that two years after Britain leaving the EU, the average holiday for four people travelling together for eight nights in Europe would cost £230 more.

The government argued that other benefits would be at risk, including the end of roaming charges from 2017, free healthcare within the EU and booze cruises because of potential limits on duty free.

Good morning, This is Haroon Siddique, standing in for Andrew this morning.

Here is a summary of the key developments so far today:

  • The increasingly bad-tempered EU referendum debate is threatening to tear the Tories apart with David Cameron facing a threat to his position after the poll, the Mail reports. The Sun also says that George Osborne is facing a backlash over the Treasury dossier on Brexit, with two - unnamed - ministers threatening to quit. It quotes a Conservative MP who dubbed the two different Brexit scenarios - “shock” and “severe shock” - drawn up by the Treasury as “Specious Bollocks and Severe Specious Bollocks”.

Here is the agenda for today:

9.30am Business organisations and trades unions give evidence to the Commons business committee on the EU referendum.

9.30am EDF chief executive Vincent de Rivaz and energy minister Andrea Leadsom give evidence to the Commons energy committee on the UK’s nuclear programme.

10am David Cameron is visiting a business in Luton, Bedfordshire, where he will hold a Q&A with employees on the EU referendum.

10am The governor of the Bank of England,Mark Carney, gives evidence to the Commons treasury committee on the Bank’s inflation report.

10am The defence secretary, Michael Fallon, gives evidence to the Commons defence committee on Russia.

10.30am The National Institute of Economic and Social Research will publish new research by Katerina Lisenkova analysing the long-term economic and fiscal impacts of changes to migration policy after Brexit.

10.30am Nigel Farage is on a Ukip referendum bus tour in Dudley and Nottingham.

11.30am Harriet Harman, Angela Eagle and other prominent female Labour MPs will make the case for why women are better off in the EU.

4pm Eddie Izzard takes part in the first debate on his 31 cities in 31 days ‘Stand Up for Europe’ campaign tour. Making the opposing case will be Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan.

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