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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Labour's fiscal rules unlikely to give us credibility, says 2015 election chief - as it happened

John McDonnell, shadow chancellor (pictured). Spencer Livermore, Labour’s 2015 election chief, says McDonnell’s new fiscal rules are unlikely to give the party credibility
John McDonnell, shadow chancellor (pictured). Spencer Livermore, Labour’s 2015 election chief, says McDonnell’s new fiscal rules are unlikely to give the party credibility Photograph: Ray Tang/REX Shutterstock

Afternoon summary

  • Spencer Livermore, Labour’s general election campaign director in 2015, has said that John McDonnell’s new fiscal rules are unlikely to give the party credibility. (See 1.56pm.)
  • David Cameron has used a speech at the Welsh Conservatives’ conference to say that the claims made about the benefits of leaving the EU are implausible. He told members:

Those who want us to leave are telling you that you can have all the benefits of EU membership but none of the trade offs. As eveybody knows, if it sounds too good to be true, that’s normally because it is.

And let us remember. This isn’t some abstract question. These are actually people’s jobs, people’s livelihoods, people’s life chances, people’s families we’re talking about. And I say don’t put them at risk; don’t take this leap in the dark.

  • MPs have hit out at Conservative filibusters “boring on” for hours and restricting debate on NHS privatisation to just 17 minutes. As the Press Association reports, Green MP Caroline Lucas was attempting to reverse much of the Conservatives’ NHS reforms and reinstate the health secretary’s responsibility for the health of UK citizens with her National Health Service bill. The private member’s Bill was never likely to become law but Lucas had hoped to at least open debate on the issues in a week of demonstrations and junior doctors’ strikes. But her hopes were scuppered as Tory MPs spoke at length on the previous item for debate, the foreign national offenders (exclusion from the UK) bill. Kettering MP Philip Hollobone’s opening speech on the bill lasted an hour and 21 minutes and Philip Davies spoke for around 50 minutes. The pair then joined colleagues in forcing a time-wasting vote which was not attended by enough MPs to be counted. That left Lucas with just 17 minutes for her bill, a situation which she said brought the Commons into disrepute. The SNP health spokeswoman Dr Philippa Whitford also complained. She said:

It’s really just as a new member in this House, I do find it shocking, not just for the waste of time of people who are wanting to come and speak on something that is so important, but our constituents are all writing to us including the honourable members opposite asking for us to discuss and vote on the NHS bill.

That’s all from me for today.

Thanks for the comments.

Updated

There is a group of lawyers campaigning for Britain to leave the EU, Lawyers for Britain.

Now there is a group on the other side, Lawyers - In For Britain. They have produced a 70-page report on why Britain should remain in the EU (pdf).

John Davies, the group’s chairman, said:

Our conclusion is that the UK is stronger, safer and better off in the EU. The words I hear the most from those who are undecided are ‘give us the facts’. We have gathered together what we believe are the most reliable facts that led us to this conclusion. We hope this Report will be a valuable contribution to the debate.

Steve Fisher, the Oxford academic and a member of the team that produced the BBC’s general election exit poll forecast, used to produce a regular general election forecast ahead of the general election. Like almost everyone, he did not forecast a Conservative majority, but he was less wrong than almost anybody else. His forecast was based on polling, but it took into account various other factors that help to explain voting behaviour.

Now, with Alan Renwick, he has started producing an EU referendum forecast. Here is their first one. At they moment they think Remain are heading for a win with 58% of the vote.

They will tell us why next week.

Here’s Larry Elliott’s assessment of John McDonnell’s speech.

Here are some more lines from what David Cameron said about the EU in his speech to the Welsh Conservatives’ conference.

George Eaton’s Staggers blog on the John McDonnell speech is also worth reading. Here’s an excerpt.

If there is a defining difference it is rhetorical. Though their rules allowed borrowing for investment, Miliband and Balls were always fearful of saying so. Labour’s profligate reputation lead them to act by stealth. McDonnell has no such shame, proudly declaring his intention to invest and harnessing the support of “the Financial Times, the Economist, every single economist who appeared in front of the Treasury Select Committee”. Yet while Labour’s commitment to spend is clearer than ever, it is its willingness to save that voters need to be convinced of. McDonnell embraced that cause today but the tough questions have been deferred.

(On the subject of questions being deferred it is also worth pointing out that John McDonnell greatly irritated the journalists who turned up to hear him deliver his speech by refusing to take questions.)

Updated

David Cameron is now speaking about the EU in his speech to the Welsh Conservatives’ conference.

He says if something sounds too good to be true, it is. And that is the problem with the Leave case, he says.

Richard Murphy, the tax campaigner who spoke at Jeremy Corbyn rallies during the Labour leadership election, has welcomed John McDonnell’s announcement. And, in a blog, he explains why he thinks it is different from what Labour has said before.

Here’s an excerpt.

Is this plan like what went before then? I suggest it isn’t, for three reasons.

First, the goals on growth are clearer.

Second, the implicit economic logic of spending to stimulate growth is clearer and rationally based within a Keynesian framework.

And third there is less reverence for the state / business divide and much more emphasis on partnership. When there is a need state assistance to reorientate from financial services that is vital.

David Cameron is speaking now at the Welsh Conservative party conference.

We are expecting him to respond to Boris Johnson, but he has not done so yet.

David Cameron speaking at the Welsh Conservative conference
David Cameron speaking at the Welsh Conservatives’ conference Photograph: BBC

And, for more on John McDonnell’s plans, Simon Wren-Lewis, the economic professor and a member of Labour’s economic advisory committee, explains the thinking behind McDonnell’s fiscal here on his blog. Here’s an excerpt.

No doubt we will hear the usual cries from the opponents of sensible fiscal rules: Labour plan to borrow billions more than George Osborne and they plan to go on borrowing forever. The simple response to that should be that it is right to borrow to invest in the country’s future, just as firms borrow to invest in capital and individuals borrow to invest in a house. Indeed, with so many good projects for the government to choose from, and with interest rates at virtually zero, it is absolute madness not to investment substantially in the coming years.

This part of the rule is similar to the main fiscal rule Osborne himself adopted under the Coalition, which in turn is not unlike previous rules adopted by Labour. What is new is that McDonnell’s rule involves what could be termed a ‘zero lower bound knockout’: if interest rates hit their lower bound following a recession, the focus of fiscal policy shifts from deficit targets to helping monetary policy support the economy. It reflects the knowledge we have gained since the global financial crisis.

The Independent’s Ben Chu has posted a tweet with a very helpful guide to the differences between John McDonnell’s new fiscal credibility rule, Ed Ball’s one, George Osborne’s in the last parliament, and Osborne’s now.

Stiglitz praises McDonnell's economic plan

Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize-winning economist and a member of Labour’s economic advisory committee, has praised the policies set out in John McDonnell’s speech. In a statement (issued by Labour) he said:

The approach which John McDonnell is laying out is a credible and sensible one for managing the nation’s finances responsibly, whilst supporting sustainable economic growth.

It is compatible with mainstream thinking and I hope that it will help move the political debate on from the current austerity approach which is holding back the potential of the UK economy.

Professor Joseph Stiglitz
Professor Joseph Stiglitz Photograph: Ken Jack/Demotix/Corbis

McDonnell's new fiscal rules 'unlikely to give us credibility', says Labour's 2015 election chief

Spencer Livermore, Labour’s general election campaign director in 2015, has said that John McDonnell’s announcement about fiscal rules is “unlikely to give us credibility”. In an interview with the World at One, Livermore welcomed the fact that McDonnell was trying to address the issue of economic credibility, but argued that simply copying a policy from 2015 was not enough. He told the programme:

Obviously I’m pleased that the shadow chancellor now recognises that economic credibility is a problem. I think the emphasis on the Labour party should be on moving forward from 2015 because I think everyone recognises that economic credibility was one of the big reasons why we lost in 2015. But simply announcing the same policy that Labour had then is not learning the lessons from 2015. Rather, it is likely to lead to the same outcome as 2015. A policy that lacked credibility then is unlikely to give us credibility now.

Albert Einstein defined madness as doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome. This announcement, I’m afraid, does not move us on from where we were in 2015. We should be learning from our mistakes not repeating them.

Asked what Labour should be doing, he replied:

We should look back to the last time we were in opposition for a sustained period. We should look back at what Gordon Brown did between 1993 and 1997. He did not just just rebadge an existing policy with a new, tough-sounding name. He fundamentally rethought Labour’s economic policy for a new age. And I think that’s the scale of what we need to be doing now.

Earlier I quoted various commentators claiming that McDonnell’s rules were much the same as Ed Balls’s. (See 10.26am.) Livermore takes this view too.

But Paul Mason, the economics journalist and writer, says this lot are “dimwits”.

In a long blog Mason explains why McDonnell’s approach is different from Balls’s. Here’s an extract.

McDonnell has made a significant change to the “rules” followed both by Brown pre-2008 and devised by Ed Balls under the Ed Miliband leadership. His are the first set of fiscal rules that include a contingency plan for severe crisis.

Thus McDonnell is the first Labour Treasury chief in a generation to recognise that, in a period of acute stagnation or financial collapse, fiscal and monetary policy become fused.

Spencer Livermore
Spencer Livermore Photograph: BBC

Updated

Lunchtime summary

Chuka Umunna, the Labour MP and former shadow business secretary, has dismissed Boris Johnson’s speech as a “rant” in an interview with BBC News. He said:

This wasn’t a speech; it was a rant containing a set of anachronistic, distorted views which might be good entertainment, but when it comes down to what does this mean for your viewers families had absolutely nothing to offer whatsoever ...

He thinks if we leave we should have a trading relationship akin the relationship that Canada has negotiated with the EU. Well, let’s look at that agreement. That took seven years to negotiate. It doesn’t cover services, which make up 80% of our economy. And it doesn’t give you full access to the single market.

I’m fed up with this kind of entertainment, tomfoolery and the rest from Boris Johnson, because ultimately this is going to affect my constituents’ lives and their jobs.

Chuka Umunna
Chuka Umunna Photograph: BBC

It looks as if Robert Harris, the writer and former political journalist, as been reading the splash on the Guardian’s website.

Britain Stronger in Europe have been in touch to point out that, in a recent article, Andrew Baxter, the pro-Brexit Europa Worldwide boss who introduced Boris Johnson to the stage, admitted that leaving the EU could harm trade in the short term. Baxter said:

Brexit would undoubtedly make our business a more complex one … it is unlikely to help trade in the short term.

What Cameron says about Johnson's plan for a Canada-style free trade deal with the EU

In his Q&A Boris Johnson twice suggested that Britain should negotiate the kind of free trade deal that Canada has with the EU.

This is what David Cameron said about this proposal in his speech yesterday.

Now others will say: let’s sign a free trade agreement like Canada is doing. And yes of course – perhaps we could.

But their free trade agreement is not anything like being in the Single Market and it retains a number of tariffs and quotas.

Will Canadian farmers have unrestricted exports for their produce? No.

Will Canadian carmakers be able to sell their cars in Europe without cumbersome rules on the origin of each part? No.

Their agreement with the EU is over 1,400 pages long – 700 of which are exemptions from free trade demanded by either side.

Now that might work for Canada, which sends around a tenth of its exports to Europe.

But it wouldn’t work for Britain, with around half our exports going to Europe.

David Cameron speaking to workers at Vauxhall’s Ellesmere Port plant yesterday
David Cameron speaking to workers at Vauxhall’s Ellesmere Port plant yesterday Photograph: Andrew Yates/PA

Boris Johnson's speech - Verdict

This was Boris Johnson’s first proper speech for Vote Leave and it was an important test. Polling evidence suggests that he ought to be the most effective campaigner for the Leave camp. He comes second only to David Cameron as a politician whom people trust on the subject of Europe, and it has been suggested that having him backing Out could compensate for having Cameron backing In. So, when he hit the campaign trail, what was he actually like?

In a nutshell, witty and engaging, as you would expect - but perhaps not especially persuasive.

Johnson gave a speech that was predicated on an interesting hypothetic: if the EU did not exist, and someone set it up now, would Britons think it was a good idea to join? Johnson rattled through this fantasy in an entertaining manner (as critics of his EU journalism have often said, he has a gift for fiction) and it made for an interesting thought experiment, but rhetorically it was probably not particularly effective. If Britain were out of the EU, would it join? If I won the lottery yesterday, would I be at work? If Boris had wings, could he fly? The point is, he doesn’t, I didn’t, and Britain isn’t. We’ve got to start with where we are now.

Interestingly, Johnson did not try to use the controlling immigration argument for Brexit (even though those in the Ukip corner of the Leave camp think this is their strongest card). Instead, he focused on the economy, and he was quite explicit about the kind of relationship he wants the UK to have with the EU; a Canada-style free trade agreement. David Cameron has been taunted the Out camp for weeks for being unable to say what would happen if Britain were to leave, but now that Johnson has given an answer, Remain has something to attack. Within hours I expect my inbox will be filling up with material about the drawbacks of the Canadian arrangement.

It was also striking how determined Johnson was to be positive. He told his audience:

I think the prospects are win-win for all of us. I think it is time to ignore the pessimists and the merchants of gloom and to do a new deal that would be good for Britain and good for Europe too. It is time to burst loose and of all those regulations and get out into a world that is changing and growing and becoming more exciting the whole time.

If we hold our nerve and we are not timid and we are not cowed by the gloomadon-poppers on the Remain campaign and we vote for freedom and for the restoration of democracy, then I believe that this country will continue to grow and prosper and thrive as never before.

“Gloomadon-poppers” is classic Boris. It is great journalistic copy. But can you win an argument just with flash phrasemaking? By comparison, David Cameron’s EU speeches have been stolid and a bit dull, but Cameron has a clear message about Britain being safer, stronger and better off in the EU and, because he is repeating it endlessly in a focused manner, it might be seeping into the public consciousness.

Politics is partly about being able to salesmanship and, when it comes to selling himself, Johnson is probably the best politician in the UK. But is he as good at selling an actual message? On the basis of today, I’m not so sure.

Boris Johnson speaking in Dartford

Updated

And this is from Bloomberg’s Rob Hutton.

This is from the Telegraph’s Michael Deacon.

Q: If the condition for getting access to the free market was allowing free movement, would you support that.

Johnson says he wants the kind of deal Canada has got.

And that’s it. It’s over.

I will post a summary soon.

Q: Next week EU leaders will discuss a deal with Turkey, which could involve Turks getting access to the Schengen area.

Johnson says he is a passionate philo-Turk. His father’s father’s father was Turkish.

The Turks do not want to join the EU, he says.

And he says he is “very dubious” about having a huge free travel zone.

Q: Cameron says you would put jobs at risk. Has he got a point?

Cameron says he thinks the risk would be in staying in the EU. The best thing we can do is show a lead, show an example, and strike out for freedom, he says.

Johnson turns on the BBC’s John Pienaar for asking about Johnson’s relationship with David Cameron. He wants to talk about the issues that matter, he says.

Q: How have you got the Queen on your side?

Johnson says the Queen is above politics. He does not know what she thinks about this. But he knows that she likes the new Elizabeth line (Crossrail).

Johnson says Britain should strike a trade deal with the EU similar to Canada’s. They have got rid of most tariffs, he says.

Johnson says if Britain left the EU it would have £10bn a year that it could spend on “great stuff” for this country.

Q: What are you going to do about Uber?

Johnson says he is consulting on having a congestion charge for private hire vehicles coming into London. That would apply to Uber cars.

Q; What about Scotland?

Johnson says the Scots voted to stay in the UK. He does not think there will be another referendum anytime soon.

Q: What about the relationship between sterling and the euro?

It will continue to fluctuate, Johnson says.

He says about the only sensible thing Gordon Brown ever did was stay out of the euro.

And the people who said it would be a disaster not to join the euro and saying it would be a disaster to leave now. So hashtag #wrongthenwrongnow, he says.

Q: What about the downsides?

Johnson says he does not think there are any substantial downsides. He has thought about this a lot, he says. The only thing we have to fear is fear itself, he says, quoting FDR.

Updated

Q: What about Russia?

Johnson says much of our security over the last 70 years has been guaranteed by Nato.

Cooperation will continue with other European countries, but at an inter-governmental level, he says.

He says the problem with the EU is not the cooperation between governments, but the bureaucracy.

Johnson says the only way to get real reform is to vote leave.

Johnson is now taking questions.

He is going to take them from members of the audience first, before taking them from journalists.

Johnson says if Britain leaves the EU, it can take this country forward with growth.

He says the EU has done nothing to help the development of the tech industry in the UK.

London is the biggest financial capital in the world, and that has nothing to do with the EU either. It would remain so if Britain left the EU.

He says Britain exports bicycles to Japan, tea to China, rice to India and TV aerials to Korea.

The idea that other countries would put up tariff barriers when we trade with them is “absurd”.

Johnson says Britain should “ignore the pessimists and the merchants of doom” and leave the EU.

The EU is “stagnant”, he says.

Johnson says if the UK leaves the EU, it can strike out and make free trade deals with countries around the world.

At the moment we rely on the European commission to make those deals for us, he says. But only 4% of officials in the commission are British.

Johnson says the EU is now 'an anachronism'

Johnson is still on is riff about what would happen if someone were trying to persuade the UK to join the EU now.

He says money goes from the UK to the “demented” common agricultural policy.

Why would anyone join such a club today?

They would not want to join, he says.

The whole thing is an anachronism now.

He says it was set up in the 1950s by French bureaucrats to contain German dominance. But Germany is still dominant.

Boris Johnson
Boris Johnson Photograph: Reuters/REUTERS

Boris Johnson is speaking now.

(There is a live feed at the top of this blog.)

He says he was late because of the trains.

If someone arrived now and suggested uniting all the countries of Europe, and forcing Britain to sign up, what would happen, he asks.

People would say the UK would have to give up its own laws. Brussels would decide maybe a half, or two thirds, of UK laws.

It would decide how old a child would have to be to blow up a balloon.

They would want to tell us who we should have in this country.

They would want to tell us who we could deport.

Britons would decide if they wanted to join. They might ask: Would it save us money? No, they would say. You have to spend money.

Would it be good for growth, people would ask.

No, they would reply.

Look at what is happening in the Eurozone.

Boris Johnson has arrived.

He is being introduced by Andrew Baxter from the Europa Worldwide Group. Baxter says they are in a warehouse that stores goods coming into the UK from the EU.

This is from the Times’s Patrick Kidd.

And this is from Britain Stronger in Europe.

Boris Johnson is running late, and the hacks aren’t happy ...

This is from Huffington Post’s Owen Bennett.

And this is from my colleague Rowena Mason.

Updated

Boris Johnson's EU speech and Q&A

Boris Johnson will soon be giving a speech on the EU in Dartford, and taking questions.

I will be covering it live.

Boris Johnson was due to start his speech 10 minutes ago. He is also running late.

Liz Kendall suggests McDonnell's argument about need to tackle the defict echoes hers

It is also being pointed out that one of John McDonnell’s line has a distinct Liz Kendall feel to it.

In case you cannot read these quotes, here is the Kendall one.

There is nothing progressive about spending more on debt interest than on our children’s education.

And here is the one from McDonnell’s speech.

There is nothing left-wing about excessive spending. There is nothing socialist about running up too much debt.

When governments do not manage their finances responsibly, it is ordinary working people who eventually suffer.

Liz Kendall herself has picked up on this, welcome the fact that McDonnell seems to be borrowing some of her language.

She is retweeting this tweet.

Updated

McDonnell accused of adopting Ed Balls's approach to deficit reduction

I will post more from the John McDonnell speech when I’ve seen the text, but in the meantime here’s the Guardian splash, which explains his new “fiscal credibility rule”. Here’s the key extract.

[McDonnell] will say that Labour would balance tax revenues and day-to-day spending over a five-year cycle, but this target would exclude long-term investment projects, allowing Labour to spend billions on projects such as housing, railways or high-speed broadband.

Commentators are struggling to see how this is much difference from what Ed Balls was proposing when he was shadow chancellor in the last parliament.

From ITV’s Robert Peston

From the Independent on Sunday’s John Rentoul

From Theo Bertram, a former adviser to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown

From Glen O’Hara, a history professor

From Rob Ford, a politics professor

(Some of us were making a similar point about McDonnell’s thinking some time ago.)

Updated

John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, was due to start his speech at 10am, but he’s running late.

Some Leave campaigners have been responding to Tony Blair on Twitter. Here are some of their tweets.

From the Conservative MP Stewart Jackson

From the Conservative MP Anne-Marie Trevelyan

From the Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan

From Vote Leave’s head of media Robert Oxley

Duncan Smith says Church should have started defending those worried about immigration much earlier

In an interview with the House magazine Justin Welby, the archbishop of Canterbury, says being afraid and anxious about immigration is a “reasonable” reaction to what is happening.

Here’s the Guardian’s story.

And here is the key quote from Welby in full.

Fear is a valid emotion at a time of such colossal crisis. This is one of the greatest movements of people in human history. Just enormous. And to be anxious about that is very reasonable.

There is a tendency to say ‘those people are racist’, which is just outrageous, absolutely outrageous.

In fragile communities particularly – and I’ve worked in many areas with very fragile communities over my time as a clergyman – there is a genuine fear: what happens about housing? What happens about jobs? What happens about access to health services?

There is a genuine fear. And it is really important that that fear is listened to and addressed. There have to be resources put in place that address those fears.

But we have demonstrated this enormous capacity to deal with things, and we do it brilliantly at the micro level. With help from the macro level the micro can be much more absorbent and much more capable than we sometimes give them credit for. It is simply a question of the scale on which we are prepared to act, in a way that spreads the load so it can be managed.

Fear is justified, I wouldn’t want to criticise that for a moment, but so is hope wholly justified, because we have the capacity. We’re those kind of people, we always have been. But it needs the organisation, it needs the macro level and it needs to happen at a European level.

The Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby
The Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby Photograph: Evrard Ngendakumana/Reuters

On the Today programme this morning Iain Duncan Smith, the work and pensions secretary, welcomed Welby’s comment, but said the Church should have spoken out in this way many years ago. He told the programme:

I think these are rational comments from the Archbishop and are to be welcomed, but, you know, you wonder just how late they have come from various people in institutions.

For far too many years what’s happened is that, in a sense, the elites really all said ‘It is terrible to talk about immigration and if you do you are racist’. So they shut down the debate for many, many years. I can even remember back at the time when Tony Blair was prime minister, to even mention immigration was to be accused of being a racist.

You talked in terms about asylum seekers, but that accusation probably silenced legitimate discussion and it meant that, if you do that, what happens is you push this debate to the margins, which is what you are seeing in Europe. And then political parties and people with very poor intentions and rather nasty motives then start to take this issue, and that’s where you lose control.

So this should have been the case many, many years before but shutting it down has been terrible for the British people.

Iain Duncan Smith
Iain Duncan Smith Photograph: Mark Thomas/REX/Shutterstock

As the Guardian reported on Wednesday, Mike Ashley, the founder of Sports Direct, has been told by the Commons business committee that he could be found in contempt of parliament because he has refused to agree to give evidence to the committee. The committee wants to question him about the treatment of his workers.

Ashley has now accused the committee of “abusing parliamentary procedure” in order to create a “media circus” which was not in the interests of his staff. He made the charge in a reply to Iain Wright, the committee chair. He told Wright:

I was disgusted to learn that you have adopted a stance that is deliberately antagonistic. By refusing to visit Sports Direct to see things with your own eyes, you are missing out on a genuine opportunity to gain a detailed and balanced understanding of the matters you wish to discuss.

I believe you are abusing parliamentary procedure in an attempt to create a media circus in Westminster, which is not in the best interests of any of the people who work at Sports Direct.

In his letter Ashley did no offer a date when he could give evidence to the committee, although he repeated an invitation to the committee to visit Sports Direct’s premises at Shirebrook in Derbyshire.

Jeremy Corbyn has tweeted a tribute to Harold Wilson, who was born 100 years ago today.

Blair's Today interview - Summary

In his Today interview Tony Blair urged the Remain camp to show more “passion and vigour” as they campaign. Here are the other lines from what he said.

  • Blair rejected claims that the Remain camp represent the political elite, saying there is just as much “elite” support for Leave.

When people go on about ‘the elites want Europe but the people don’t’, there are plenty of elites on the anti-European side. The powerful people in the newspapers who are driving this and other major politicians who are fighting this case are no less elitists than any politicians on the other side ...

[It is] not to satisfy some elite that we should be part of the biggest political union and biggest commercial market in the world. It is precisely to satisfy the interests of the people, those interests that will be damaged fundamentally - not the elites, by the way, supporting this case to get out of Europe - the people are going to be damaged by the instability and the economic difficulty that is going to be consequent on a decision to withdraw.

So framing this argument in the way these guys do, ‘the elites are all for Europe and the people are all against it’ – come on. You guys are just as elitist as anybody else.

  • He said the “political class” should stand up and defend itself. And centre-ground politicians needed to make their case with more “muscularity”, he said.

At some point the political class as a whole has got to get up and stand up for itself. The centre ground in particular has got to get some more muscularity in its position.

  • He played down the prospect of playing an active role in the Remain campaign, saying his involvement would bring “negatives”. This is what he said when asked if he would hit the campaign trail.

I don’t know if it’s the right time for me on the campaign trail. That carries with it negatives as well as positives.

These figures, from the Sunder Katwala, head of the British Future thinktank, illustrate what Blair means when he talks of negatives.

Blair was interviewed by Nick Robinson, and Robinson later used a tweet to say Blair was not planning to hit the campaign trail.

  • Blair said that he was “concerned” about the prospect of Britain voting to leave the EU, but thought that the Remain camp would win.

You’ve got to be concerned because there’s a straightforward choice and politics is a highly unpredictable business, particularly today. On the other hand, I think the British people are sensible and, as you can see from the gyrations on the currency markets, the one thing that is for sure is if you vote to go there are going to be several years of uncertainty ...

So I think in the end this referendum will be won for those that see Britain remaining part of the European Union.

  • He said that if Britain voted to leave the EU, the “integrity” of the country would be questioned internationally.

As you can see from the gyrations on the currency markets, the one thing that is for sure is if you vote to go there are going to be several years of uncertainty. And in my view that uncertainty will be multiplied because there will be a whole set of questions asked about the integrity of the UK consequent on a decision of the UK to leave Europe that will add to that uncertainty.

  • He said Britain should be leading in Europe.

Our destiny as a country is to lead in Europe and we can and we should.

I’ve taken some of the quotes from PoliticsHome.

Do you find the EU referendum campaign dispiriting? Tony Blair seems to. He has given an interview to the Today programme this morning, and he urged the Remain camp (which he strongly supports, obviously) to show more “passion and vigour and determination”.

The question is, what is in the interests of the people?

And I would like to see the pro-European side get out there with a bit of passion and vigour and determination and stand up for what we believe.

And what we believe not just as a matter of economic realism, but as a matter of political idealism.

He was also quite interesting on elites, and the need for moderates to be more muscular. I will post more from the interview soon.

Here is the agenda for the day.

10am: John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, gives a speech on economic policy. As the Guardian reports, he will say that Labour would borrow billions of pounds to fund public investment projects, while exerting an “iron discipline” over day-to-day spending.

10.30am: Boris Johnson, the mayor of London, gives a speech on the EU and takes part in a Q&E with employees.

11am: Diane James, the Ukip home affairs spokesman, launches Ukip’s police and crime commissioners campaign.

The Welsh Conservative party’s spring conference is also taking place in Llangollen in north Wales.

As usual I will also be covering the breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I will post a summary at lunchtime and another in the afternoon.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time. Alternatively you could post a question to me on Twitter.

If you think there are any voices that I’m leaving out, particularly political figures or organisations giving alternative views of the stories I’m covering, do please flag them up below the line (include “Andrew” in the post). I can’t promise to include everything, but I do try to be open to as wide a range of perspectives as possible.

Updated

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What Caused Kelly Osbourne's 'Scary' Look? Reality Star Claims She 'Can't Eat', Denies Ozempic Use
Kelly Osbourne discusses her weight loss journey, addressing rumors and the impact of her father Ozzy Osbourne's death.
International Business Times UK
International Business Times UK
Bonnie Blue Pregnancy Update: Adult Star Whips Off 'Fake Baby Bump' in Sordid Spring Break Meet and Greet
Bonnie Blue's latest spring break video from Cancun has raised doubts over her pregnancy claims after viewers noted the apparent disappearance of her earlier bump.
International Business Times UK
International Business Times UK
‘Vas Madness’ shows the power of messaging on men’s contraceptive decisions
Bracket-busting upsets, Cinderella stories, OT buzzer beaters – March Madness is here! Or, as some urologists think of it, vasectomy promotion season.
The Conversation
The Conversation
Can Cats Watch TV? What Do They Really See
How Cats See the World Cats see blues and yellows best, not bright reds or greens To understand what cats see on TV we have to answer the question how they see. Cats lack the coloring that human beings possess. The black and white world does not exist in their…
Times Pets
Times Pets
Couples share 30% of their gut bacteria. Here’s how that may affect health
When living with a partner, you might be sharing more than just the same home, lifestyle and interests. You might also share various microscopic organisms residing on and in you.
The Conversation
The Conversation
Valerie Perrine, Superman and Lenny actor, dies aged 82
Perrine gained notoriety for a naked TV role and was acclaimed for her roles opposite Gene Hackman, Dustin Hoffman and Jeff Bridges
The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
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