The majority of the political groups of the European Parliament will not back the vote of no-confidence tabled against von der Leyen's European Commission, but even those from the coalition that voted her into office last year reproached her leadership, and some groups are split over how to vote.
After the debate held in the hemicycle on Monday, some of the eight groups of the Parliament clearly staked their position ahead of the vote, while others were more ambiguous, and not all MEPs align with their groups.
The European People's Party (EPP), Ursula von der Leyen's political force, is fully behind her. "We will vote unanimously against", said Manfred Weber, chair of the group.
The EPP has painted the vote as the emanating from far right MEPs friendly to Russian President Vladimir Putin. "With this motion of censure, we are wasting time: Putin will be happy of what his friends are doing here. I know the German AfD (Alternative for Germany) and the Romanian AUR (Alliance for Unity of Romanians) are the puppets of Putin. This motion of censure is against the security of the Europeans," Weber said during the debate.
Criticism of von der Leyen on display
Socialists and democrats (S&D), Renew Europe and Greens/EFA groups have also said they will not vote to censure, but that didn't stop their chairs criticising von der Leyen for treating with the right wing parties, ignoring important policy files and leading the Commission with an extremely centralised and opaque working style.
“This motion will not count with the vote in favour of my group. We will not give a single vote to those who want to destroy the European Union,” said S&D leader Iratxe García Pérez, describing the motion of censure as a "reactionary assault".
But García Pérez also blamed von der Leyen for backsliding on the Green Deal when she allied with conservatives to withdraw the Commission’s controversial directive on green claims, which is meant to address greenwashing.
Besides, not supporting the motion does not necessarily equate to a pledge that the Socialists will vote against it. According to sources from the Parliament, the group's members could also abstain.
"We have not decided yet, we will discuss the issue in the next days before the vote," S&D Belgian MEP Estelle Ceulemans told Euronews after a group internal meeting.
Renew Europe also clearly stated that it opposed the motion of censure. "The motion itself shows the bad intentions of the signatories: a mishmash of allegations on Pfizer text messages, the spending of the Recovery Facility, defence plans and supposed election interference," a statement from the group read.
Renew Europe's president, Valérie Hayer, doubled down on this during her intervention, but she too took the opportunity to take a swipe at von der Leyen. "The Commission is too centralised, too fossilised", she said.
The Greens/EFA group is set to reject the motion of censure, with all its MEPs voting against, abstaining, or not showing up on the day of the vote, according to internal sources.
The leader of the group, Bas Eickhout called the motion “one big political show of the far-right to undermine democracy.” But he also lashed out at recent tie ups over voting between the EPP and the far-right. “You are feeding that beast, and at a certain moment the beast will eat you,” Eickhout said, directing his glance at EPP President Weber.
The Left's co-President Martin Schirdewa said his group opposes the motion of censure because it refuses "to be instrumentalised by right-wing extremists". But others within the group don't appear to be on the same page. The Italian Five Stars Movement, for example, will vote in favour: "Millions of citizens who believe in the EU, in democracy and in social justice are asking us today to send von der Leyen home", a statement from the party said. The Left's Irish MEPs are also set to vote in favour, according to Parliament sources.
Conservatives split on the vote, far right united
The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) illustrate this shaky group dynamic more clearly: some of its members proposed and actively promoted the vote of confidence, while others are set to defend the Commission.
Officially, the group will leave its lawmakers to follow their consciences with a free vote, and the largest national delegations are in opposite camps.
Romanians from ultra-nationalist party AUR and Polish from Law and Justice (PiS) are among the signatories of the motion of censure, consistently with a long tradition of hard criticism against von der Leyen and her college.
On the other side, the members of Brothers of Italy will not vote in favour of the motion, as this would entail the resignation of all Commissioners, including Italy's Raffaele Fitto, Commission Executive Vice-President for Cohesion and Reforms, who comes from the party's ranks.
"This motion is doomed to failure, not even getting close to the required threshold [to topple the Commission]. This is a gift to our political opponents," ECR co-chair Nicola Procaccini said during his intervention.
Patriots for Europe (PfE) and Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN), the two more radical right groups in the Parliament, will vote in favour of the motion, requesting the Commission to resign.
"The Pfizergate has been an abuse of power: you have acted alone, out of any democratic framework", Fabrice Leggeri, a French National Rally MEP, said during the debate, while ESN's leader René Aust from Alternative for Germany, said his group intended to send von der Leyen "to an undeserved retirement".
A symbolic vote
The vote of no-confidence has very little chance of being approved, as at least two-thirds of the votes cast representing a majority of all MEPs would need to back the motion of censure for it to be adopted.
But Monday’s debate gave an indication of the level of distrust for Von der Leyen in the parliament, regardless of MEP’s political affiliation.
The parties from the so-called "centrist majority" (EPP, S&D, Renew Europe) are split on the assessment of the Commission's track record so far.
While the EPP group fully endorses von der Leyen's political line (and is probably also behind it), Socialists and liberals are at odds with it, signalling that the coalition which saw von der Leyen voted in as President of the Commission one year back is on shaky ground.
In this respect, S&D's leader García Pérez addressed EPP President Weber at the end of her intervention: "This motion is the direct result of your strategy in the Parliament. You are asking for responsibility while you negotiate your policies with the far right. We cannot go on like this," she said.
The vote on the motion on Thursday 10 will probably testify to the level of discontent. A large number of abstentions might save the necks of the Commissioners, but also simultaneously inflict a political flesh wound on von der Leyen.
