We are only at the start of the endgame. Although David Cameron’s renegotiation of Britain’s EU has already dragged on for months, crucial issues remain to be resolved over the next two weeks.
The “new settlement” falls short of the “fundamental reform” the Prime Minister once promised. He has had to back down on curbing the free movement of people, and to switch the spotlight from reducing immigration to limiting the benefits paid to EU migrants. Safeguards for the nine non-euro countries, to prevent the 19 in the Eurozone ganging up on them, may need to beefed up to protect the City of London.
What happens next? The hard talking will begin on Friday when “sherpas”, officials from the EU’s 28 governments, go through the fine print of the 16-page draft agreement issued by Donald Tusk, President of the European Council – the 28 national leaders who will discuss it on February 18-19.
EU club rules say that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”, so any of the other 27 leaders could throw a spanner in the works by threatening to veto the agreement. Expect at least one to throw a wobbly before February 18, perhaps only for domestic consumption. Watch out for Poland.
Mr Cameron may try some last-minute arm-twisting to win more concessions, and Eurosceptics are convinced that his script includes pulling out a surprise “rabbit” at the summit so the deal suddenly looks better than expected. He is likely to take what is on offer in two weeks – not least because it would enable him to call a 23 June referendum.
On Tuesday the PM argued that he would “opt in” to the EU if the UK was not a member and was offered this new settlement. But once the deal is done, the In camp will want want to switch the spotlight quickly on to three more favourable “big picture” issues -- the economy; security co-operation and Britain’s place in the world. The Out camp will go head-to-head on all these and be keener to talk about immigration.
Mr Cameron’s two trump cards are voters fearing a leap into the unknown under “Brexit” and… himself. He is trusted by voters, as last year’s general election showed. Although opinion polls suggest the In and Out camps are very close, when people are asked how they would vote if Mr Cameron renegotiated Britain’s EU membership and recommended staying in, about three-fifths of people would vote to remain, while between one-fifth and a quarter would back leaving. While the public do not like the EU status quo, the PM calculates that many will prefer modest change rather than risk the dramatic change of withdrawal.
Mr Cameron's message will be aimed at the third of the public who are undecided (about a third are strongly committed to voting In and the same proportion to Out). His theme tune, which we would hear a thousand times before a June referendum, is that Britain can have “the best of both worlds” –the benefits of the single market for jobs and foreign investment without the downsides of the euro and the “open borders” Schengen agreement.
Team Cameron appears increasingly confident, and buoyed by disarray in a divided Out camp. But two clouds lurk ominously. “We would not win a campaign dominated by immigration,” one leading figure in the In campaign admitted. Secondly, people who want to leave the EU may turn out in greater numbers than those inclined to stay; Mr Cameron will have to mind this “enthusiasm gap.” His powers of persuasion are about to be put to a very big test.
