EU ministers are closing in on a deal for the bloc’s 2040 climate target, with a proposed 'brake clause' offering flexibility if Europe’s forests fail to absorb enough carbon.
The so-called “brake clause” could allow the European Union soften its 2040 climate target in future years – a move aimed at giving countries breathing room if Europe’s forests fail to soak up enough carbon dioxide to meet the goal.
According to a draft compromise proposal, EU countries are considering allowing an adjustment to the target if forest and land-use activities – which play a vital role in absorbing emissions – fall short.
The idea is to build in some flexibility, without derailing the bloc’s overall climate ambitions.
The EU’s environment ministers are expected to meet on 4 November in a bid to finalise the new 2040 target – just in time for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to take a fresh commitment to the Cop30 climate summit, which opens on 6 November.
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France pushes for flexibility
The European Commission has said the bloc should aim for a 90 percent cut in planet-warming emissions by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. But some member states remain uneasy, particularly those with energy-intensive industries already struggling to stay competitive.
The newly added clause in the latest draft text would allow Brussels to propose “an adjustment of the 2040 intermediate target corresponding to and within the limits of the possible shortfalls” – in other words, a small recalibration if Europe’s forests and soils underperform.
At the same time, the Commission could also bring forward extra measures to get the land-use sector back on track, suggesting that any relaxation of the target might be temporary and carefully managed.
The idea mirrors a French proposal floated last week, which called for an “emergency brake” – a 3 percent reduction of the 90 percent target – should the land-use and forestry sectors fall behind.
France argues that the brake would act as a pragmatic safeguard, ensuring Europe’s climate ambitions remain realistic in light of natural and economic challenges.
And the challenges are real. Europe’s forests and land-use sector have seen their carbon absorption capacity fall by nearly a third over the past decade. The reasons range from worsening wildfires and pests to unsustainable logging practices – all of which make the continent’s natural carbon sinks less reliable than before.
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Tough talks ahead
The debate over the “brake clause” comes on top of other contentious points. Some countries have pushed for the right to revise the 2040 goal every two years – a move critics say could weaken long-term climate certainty. Others want more leeway to use foreign carbon credits to meet their share of the 90 percent reduction.
However, negotiators will need the backing of at least 15 of the EU’s 27 member states for the deal to pass.
Still, there are signs of optimism. Denmark, which currently holds the EU’s rotating presidency and drafted the latest compromise, believes the stars may finally be aligning.
“With COP30 about to start, this is the time to agree on the 2040 target,” a Danish spokesperson said. “All the necessary ingredients are now in place to land a deal.”
While environmental groups are likely to bristle at the idea of any dilution to the 2040 goal, the compromise could strike the political balance that gets all sides on board – ambitious enough to keep Europe’s climate leadership credentials intact, yet flexible enough to acknowledge the unpredictable role of nature in climate accounting.
(with newswires)
