Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, said in a Monday note that long-term investors should focus on the broader cryptocurrency market rather than choosing between chains like Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) or Solana (CRYPTO: SOL).
Hougan Says No One Can Predict Which Chain Wins
Hougan said he remains skeptical of claims that any single network — Ethereum, Solana or Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) — will dominate the future of blockchain adoption.
He noted that even after eight years in the industry and daily discussions with founders, VCs, and researchers, he still "cannot tell you with confidence which chain will win."
He argued that outcomes depend on regulation, execution, macro conditions, and "a hundred other variables," making confident predictions unrealistic.
"People who claim certainty are, I think, fooling themselves," he wrote.
His comments come as investors increasingly compare performance and developer activity between Ethereum and Solana, with both ecosystems experiencing rapid growth.
The Case For Index Funds Over Chain Picking
Given the uncertainty, Hougan said his highest-conviction approach is to buy a market-cap-weighted cryptocurrency index fund rather than wager on individual blockchains.
The strategy gives exposure to potential winners while avoiding the risk of backing the wrong chain during a period of explosive growth.
He expects the overall cryptocurrency market to expand significantly over the next decade as stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance mature.
Hougan cited comments from SEC Chair Paul Atkins, who told Fox Business that all U.S. equity markets could move onchain within a few years, calling it a "100,000x shift" from today's small base of tokenized stocks.
"My highest-conviction bet in crypto is this: Crypto will be far more important in 10 years than it is today," Hougan said.
He added that picking a chain incorrectly could result in underperformance even in a market that grows exponentially.
Why Hougan Believes 2026 Is A Breakout Year For Indexing
Hougan expects cryptocurrency index funds to gain significant traction in 2026 as the market becomes more complex.
He said index products help investors capture growth across sectors such as prediction markets, privacy technologies, digital identity, and tokenized assets without navigating rapid shifts in market leadership.
He also noted that new regulations and expanding institutional participation will accelerate the adoption of diversified index exposure.
"Crypto index funds are going to be a big deal in 2026," he wrote.
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