ESPN updates chances of victory in Ohio State’s remaining games after Week 3

Here we go again. We like to keep tabs every week on what the ESPN Matchup Predictor says about Ohio State football’s chances of winning each remaining game on its schedule. The Buckeyes’ performance each week, as well as the tape that other teams put up, go into some sort of secret sauce formula driven by the ESPN FPI.

As we get further along in the season, the games matter more and more, and with fewer games to look at, it’s interesting to see how the chances of winning each individual game go up or down based on the body of work Ohio State and all of the teams on its schedule display.

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Has Michigan closed the gap, how have things moved for the game at Penn State? How did Michigan State’s loss change things? They are all good questions.

Here’s what the ESPN matchup predictor says about Ohio State football’s chances of winning each game remaining on its 2022 schedule.

Saturday, Sept. 24, vs. Wisconsin

Wisconsin Badgers cornerback Caesar Williams (21) celebrates in the closing seconds of the fourth quarter against Nebraska after a broken-up pass attempt by cornerback Faion Hicks (1) during their football game Saturday, November 20, 2021, at Camp Randall in Madison, Wis. Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 89.0% (down from 93.5% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 61-18-5

Projected running record: 4-0

Saturday, Oct. 1. vs. Rutgers

Sep 10, 2022; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Samuel Brown V (27) runs with the ball against the Wagner Seahawks during the second half at SHI Stadium. Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 97.6% (up from 97.2% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 8-0

Projected running record: 5-0

Saturday, Oct. 8, at Michigan State

Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne passes against Ohio State during the second half at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing on Saturday, Dec. 5, 2020. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, Michigan)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 79.1% (up from 76.3% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 35-15

Projected running record: 6-0

 

Saturday, Oct. 22, vs. Iowa

Iowa State safety Anthony Johnson, Jr., breaks up a pass made by Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras during the Cy-Hawk Series football game on Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022, at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 95.4% (down from 96.5% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 46-15-3

Projected running record: 7-0

Saturday, Oct. 29, at Penn State

Sep 10, 2022; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions wide receiver Omari Evans (18) runs with the ball on a punt return during the fourth quarter against the Ohio Bobcats at Beaver Stadium. Penn State defeated Ohio 46-10. Credit: Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports

Beaver Stadium (State College, Pennsylvania)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 68.8% (down from 78.1% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 22-14

Projected running record: 8-0

 

Saturday, Nov. 5, at Northwestern

Oct 16, 2021; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats head coach Pat Fitzgerald looks on in the first half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Ryan Field. Credit: Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports

Ryan Field (Evanston, Illinois)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 98.0% (up from 96.6% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 64-14-1

Projected running record: 9-0

 

Saturday, Nov. 12, vs. Indiana

Indiana’s Connor Bazelak (9) throws during the Indiana versus Idaho football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 97.8% (down from 98.0% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 77-12-5

Projected running record: 10-0

Saturday, Nov. 19, at Maryland

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Maryland Stadium (College Park, Maryland)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 84.7% (down from 86.5% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 7-0

Projected running record: 11-0

Saturday, Nov. 26, vs. Michigan

Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 73.4% (down from 79.5% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU trails 51-59-6

Projected Final Regular Season record: 12-0

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