ESPN’s simulator gives Lions’ 2nd-best chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick in 2022

By Jeff Risdon

Many Lions fans are keeping an eager eye on the 2022 NFL draft and prospects. With Detroit at the beginning of a rebuild and the team projected to be among the lowest in win totals in 2021, it’s hard not to think about it.

So when an ESPN analytical simulator projects the Lions to earn the No. 2 overall pick in the 2022 draft, and gives the Lions the second-best chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick, it’s worth noting. And that’s exactly what the case is after the Week 1 update from ESPN and its FPI projections.

After losing to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1, the Lions bumped up their chances to earn the No. 1 pick. It helped that the team previously topping the simulations to earn the top pick, the Houston Texans, blew out the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1. Now the Jaguars are the team most likely to earn the pick in the simulations.

What exactly is it based upon? Here’s the explanation from ESPN,

Each week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games, and the order is based on each team’s average draft position in the simulations.

The Lions have a 15.7 percent chance to capture the top pick and a 53.8 percent rate of earning a top-5 selection. Those figures are second in both metrics, behind only the Jaguars.


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