Yesterday, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) updated to reveal a significant dip in the Miami Dolphins’ odds to finish the 2019 season with the worst record in football — thus securing the number one overall draft selection. And while the Dolphins are still overwhelming favorites at 73.5%, Miami was at 89% after a Week 6 loss to Washington. This is going to get interesting.
But FPI isn’t just dedicated to the race for the number one pick. The model relies on 10,000 simulations of every game remaining the rest of the season in order to play out the final records of the teams — with each team’s results dependent on several metrics and measures of team success. And with FPI handling the simulations of every team, the Dolphins can get engaged in some pretty interesting forecasts for the final 2020 NFL Draft order, valuable to Miami because the Dolphins own three first round picks.
FPI predicts the Dolphins will still indeed finish with the #1 overall selection courtesy of their own shortcomings — but what about Pittsburgh and Houston?
The Week 8 FPI update forecasts the Steelers to finish the season right in the middle of the pack at 16th overall, while the Texans are currently forecasted to finish 26th (an appearance in the AFC Divisional Round). Seeing Pittsburgh that high in the order would be a disappointment — it would be such a bonus for the Dolphins to see the Steelers fail to surpass 6 wins on the season and finish with a second top-10 selection.
But the Steelers are facing the prospect of another possible win this week against the Dolphins, which would move them to 3-4. From there, Pittsburgh still has dates against the 2-4 Browns (twice), the 3-3-1 Cardinals, the 0-7 Bengals and the 1-5 Jets. If the Steelers generally take care of the poor teams on their schedule, they’re likely to finish with 7 or 8 wins on a down year — leaving the Dolphins right in the middle of the 1st-round with their next pick.
