College football odds and metrics ebb and flow with the results on the field, and it’s no different with Ohio State football and the ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor we like to check in on every week.
When the ESPN sauce was originally made with some Scarlet and Gray at the beginning of the season, it was a savory one with the Buckeyes enjoying the better chance of winning against every team on the schedule. As the season wore on, there’s one team that got closer and closer and finally overtook OSU, and we’re sure you know what team that involves.
Now, just a couple weeks ahead of playing Michigan, did things change at all? Ohio State only has games against Michigan State, Minnesota, and then the big one at the Big House, so what does ESPN think of those matchups after last week’s win at Rutgers?
Here’s how ESPN and its FPI Matchup Predictor see the percentage chances of winning each of the three remaining games on the Buckeyes schedule ahead of Week 11.
We’ll start by looking at the schedule and results so far, go through what the Matchup Predictor says about each game, then look at trends from last week to end it all.
Ohio State 2023 schedule and results so far
| Date | Opponent | Score |
| 09/02 | at Indiana | Win, 23-3 |
| 09/09 | vs. Youngstown State | Win, 35-7 |
| 09/16 | vs. Western Kentucky | Win, 63-10 |
| 09/23 | at Notre Dame | Win, 17-14 |
| 10/07 | vs. Maryland | Win, 37-17 |
| 10/14 | at Purdue | Win, 41-7 |
| 10/21 | vs. Penn State | Win, 20-12 |
| 10/28 | at Wisconsin | Win, 24-10 |
| 11/04 | at Rutgers | Win, 35-16 |
NEXT … ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor game win chances
Nov. 11 vs. Michigan State
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 97.9% (no change from last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 36-15
Projected running record: 10-0
Nov. 18 vs. Minnesota
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 96.7% (up from 96.5% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 46-7
Projected running record: 11-0
Nov. 25 at Michigan
Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
Predicted Winner: Michigan
Buckeyes Win Probability: 45.3% (down from 46.3% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU trails 51-60-6
Projected running record: 11-1
NEXT … The summary of the ESPN Matchup Predictor Ohio State trends
Prediction Trending Summary
How each remaining Ohio State game is trending according to the ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor
| Opponent | Chances of Winning | Chances Last Week | Trend |
| vs. Michigan State | 97.9% | 97.9% | ⇔ |
| vs. Minnesota | 96.7% | 96.5% | ⇑ |
| at Michigan | 45.3% | 46.3% | ⇓ |
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