SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico _ Erratic and unpredictable, Hurricane Dorian kept Puerto Ricans scrambling Wednesday trying to figure out where it might make landfall. But by day's end the Category 1 storm had spared much of the island _ even as it gathered steam in the Atlantic and took aim at Florida.
Dorian made the leap from tropical storm to hurricane Wednesday afternoon as it raked over the U.S. Virgin Islands. Initial reports suggest there were power outages and gusts in excess of 100 mph, but it was unclear if there was additional damage in the U.S. territory.
The storm also lashed Puerto Rico's eastern islands of Vieques and Culebra before heading northwest into the Atlantic, where it's forecast to turn into a dangerous Category 3 hurricane as it churns toward Florida, where it may make landfall as early as Monday.
"All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a powerful hurricane will be near or over the Florida peninsula," the National Hurricane Center said.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency Wednesday afternoon for 26 counties that could potentially be on the storm's path, from Nassau to Monroe, along the Atlantic seaboard. But the order also extends inland to places like Orange County.
Nearly all of the intensity models show Dorian becoming a stronger hurricane in the next couple of days, when it passes near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas by Friday and Saturday.
By the time Dorian nears Florida's east coast, it could be packing maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. Florida could start seeing tropical storm force winds Saturday night.
The biggest threat from Dorian remains the uncertainty over where it will land, said state emergency management director Jared Moskowitz: "The intensity seems pretty baked in. The only thing consistent about the track is its inconsistency."
State officials started moving hundreds of thousands of bottles of water to counties in the storm's path, Moskowitz said, and emergency management leaders are coordinating where to send equipment in the next few days ahead of the response and recovery process.
"You don't want to start moving equipment in case that's exactly where the storm is," he added. They are aiming to stage equipment and supplies outside the possible affected zones, but close enough to quickly move in after the storm passes.
Even as the storm was moving away from Puerto Rico late Wednesday, authorities warned that it was carrying heavy rains in its wake, and that the island could see 4 to 6 inches of rain and face potential flash flooding.
In its 5 p.m. EDT bulletin, the National Weather Service had a hurricane warning in effect for Vieques, Culebra and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. A hurricane watch remained in effect for Puerto Rico.
Even tropical storm winds, however, have the potential to create lasting damage here, as Puerto Rico's electrical and telecommunications infrastructure are still weak after a devastating 2017 storm season, when Hurricane Maria swept in as a Category 4, killing almost 3,000 people.
Even as it became clear that Puerto Rico had escaped the worst, Gov. Wanda Vazquez urged the island's 3.2 million residents to stay indoors and not let their guard down.
"Stay calm, this is a moment to stay home," she said Wednesday. "This isn't Maria. ... We need to wait for this to pass."
Almost two years after Maria, more than 25,000 people are still living without permanent roofs. For them, even a minor storm can be trouble.
Ernesto Irizarry, the mayor of Utuado, which was hit hard during Maria, said his community still has about 80 families that don't have roofs on their homes and are living under plastic sheeting.
"For people under tarps this isn't a tropical storm," he told local radio. "This is like a Category 5 hurricane for them."
Even in the capital the electrical grid seems vulnerable, amid leaning electrical poles and tangled and overgrown wires. Stop lights at some intersections of the city's congested center were never repaired after Maria.
President Donald Trump used the oncoming storm to highlight the U.S. commitment to the island _ but also to blast the local leadership.
"Puerto Rico is one of the most corrupt places on earth," he wrote on Twitter Wednesday, as Dorian was churning toward the island. "Their political system is broken and their politicians are either Incompetent or Corrupt. Congress approved Billions of Dollars last time (after Maria), more than anyplace else has ever gotten, and it is sent to Crooked Pols. No good!"
He also wrote that he was "the best thing that ever happened to Puerto Rico!"
The U.S. territory has been rocked by political instability in recent months. Gov. Ricardo Rossello resigned Aug. 2 after members of his Cabinet were charged with corruption, and protests erupted after messages were leaked from a tasteless and profane chat group he was a part of.
Puerto Rico's nonvoting member of the U.S. House of Representatives, Jenniffer Gonzalez _ who is also the head of the island's Republican Party _ shot back at the president.
"Hurricanes are no one's fault," she wrote. "This is the time for all of us to stand shoulder to shoulder to help our fellow Americans suffering from a natural disaster, like those in the U.S. Virgin now. Thank you 4 promptly deploying personnel & declaring an emergency for" Puerto Rico.
Dorian's zigzagging path has made it an unpredictable foe. On Tuesday evening, most forecasts had the storm swinging south, putting Puerto Rico's southwestern edge at most risk. By Wednesday morning the storm had strengthened and its trajectory had moved north, threatening the island's entire eastern seaboard and the capital, San Juan.
But then it seemed to skirt the big island altogether.
In the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, video showed bending trees and driving rain.
The storm also sideswiped Jeffrey Epstein's infamous "Pedophile Island," where the wealthy hedge fund manager allegedly trafficked girls for sex and entertained politicians and businessmen.
Little Saint James Island is just southeast of Saint Thomas, and was earlier Wednesday on what's informally known as the "dirty side" of Dorian _ the eastern, trailing side of a system, typically packing the most powerful winds, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Epstein's island was raided by FBI and police earlier this month as the investigation into the financier's alleged sex trafficking of girls continued despite his death on Aug. 10. Epstein's case was reexamined after the Miami Herald published the series "Perversion of Justice."
The storm's shifting trajectory _ missing large population centers on Puerto Rico's big island _ was little consolation for communities in Dorian's path.
The mayor of Vieques, Victor Emeric, told local media that he and the island's estimated 9,300 residents had been caught by surprise by the storm's shifting trajectory.
"There's little we can do right now," he told Telemundo on Wednesday morning. "The shelters are open and residents have taken their precautions."
Authorities said the entire island needed to be prepared for heavy rain and winds. Public schools will remain closed Thursday, and more than 100 incoming and outgoing flights had been canceled Wednesday.
And the storm had already claimed a fatality. Authorities said an 80-year-old man in Bayamon had fallen off his roof and died as he tried to clear his gutters ahead of the storm.
Even though the storm is still days away from Florida, and the strike zone is far from certain, Miami Mayor Carlos Gimenez said residents should start getting ready.
"It's a good time now to prepare," he said, telling residents to stock three days worth of food and water and be ready with an evacuation plan. "If not for Dorian, then for any other storm."
