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Daily Mirror
Daily Mirror
Sport
Gavin Beech

Epsom Oaks runners, odds and tip with pros and cons of big race favourite Emily Upjohn

Favourite backers will be hoping Frankie Dettori can deliver Emily Upjohn with a winning chance in the Epsom Oaks.

The market leader heads to the Cazoo-sponsored contest with outstanding claims after running away with the Musidora Stakes at York. Generally regarded as the most important trial race for the showpiece event, she bids to give John Gosden, who trains with his son Thady, his fourth win in the past ten years.

The daughter of Sea The Stars is bound to be hugely popular with racegoers on the day due to Dettori's presence. He didn't need to be at his strongest to push his mount five and a half lengths clear of her York rivals.

Gosden also saddles the second-favourite Nashwa, whose rider Hollie Doyle is bidding to become the first female in her profession to take a Classic.

Here Mirror Racing takes a look at the pros and cons of Emily Upjohn:

Form

Unbeaten in three starts, Emily Upjohn has improved for each visit to the racecourse and her two runs this year in particular mark her down as an outstanding middle-distance filly in the making.

Having scraped home in a Wolverhampton novice last autumn, she took a huge step forward at Sandown on reappearance, where she defied a 7lb penalty by trouncing some useful rivals to the tune of nine-and-a-half lengths. That display indicated she could be Oaks class.

Emily Upjohn needed to go and show that she could thrive in deeper company, which she did in no uncertain terms on the Knavesmire. Despite taking a keen hold off the steady gallop, Frankie Dettori's mount responded enthusiastically to her rider's urgings to power away from her rivals from over a furlong out. It was a performance of such dominance that it was no surprise that her odds were immediately slashed into short-priced favouritism.

Track and distance

Emily Upjohn is yet to race over a mile and a half but she's bred to get it well being a Sea The Stars filly and she certainly wasn't stopping in the Musidora. It would obviously make her task more difficult were she to overrace once again at Epsom but she should get a stronger pace to run at in this bigger field.

Not one runner in the Oaks has competed at Epsom so their ability to handle the unique course has to be taken on trust. Emily Upjohn moved well on the track when taken there for a piece of work. Yet it doesn't prove beyond doubt that she'll be able to run to her fastest against the camber in the home straight.

Emily Upjohn ridden by Frankie Dettori during the gallops morning ahead of the Cazoo Oaks 2022 at Epsom Racecourse (PA)

Rating

She is the highest-rated filly in the race (110), but by a much narrower margin than her odds would imply. Tuesday is just 1lb behind on 109, Concert Hall is rated 108 and stablemate Nashwa, open to stacks of further improvement, sits on 107. The favourite doesn't have much in hand at all on official figures.

Trainer view

John Gosden told the racing media after Emily Upjohn worked around Epsom last week: "She's had three races in her life and Frankie thought it would be nice to come here and have a look and feel of the track, which is all you're doing. We've done it before and she behaved great and moved very well. She got her leads right coming down the hill and quickened up nicely.

"I think mentally she'll benefit a lot from coming here. I think she rather enjoyed her morning out. We left before the rush hour and we'll get her back after the rush hour. She'd be happy on good ground, but I hope we don't get torrential rain. That would be unfortunate, but good, good to soft would be fine, and she'd handle it rattling quick.

"I hope she has the speed for the Oaks. She's shown she has a change of gear, and she quickened well in the Musidora."

Summary

Not one of John Gosden's previous six Musidora winners went on to Oaks glory at Epsom and that is a worry for Emily Upjohn's supporters. She is also far from a certainty on ratings, which show she has nothing like the amount in hand that her price suggests.

If she doesn't improve again on what she did at York, then she probably won't win. Stablemate Nashwa could easily turn out to be the best of the Gosden pair.

Verdict - OPPOSE Emily Upjohn with Nashwa

Cazoo Oaks runners and odds from Betfred

11-10 Emily Upjohn, 4-1 Nashwa, 8-1 Concert Hall, Tuesday, 10-1 With The Moonlight, 12-1 Tranquil Lady, 20-1 Thoughts Of June, 25-1 Rogue Millennium, 28-1 Moon de Vega, 50-1 Kawida, 100-1 The Algarve

Get £60 in FREE BETS and BONUSES from Betfred when you wager £10 on the 2022 Cazoo Oaks

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