This article is part of the Guardian’s 2018 World Cup Experts’ Network, a cooperation between some of the best media organisations from the 32 countries who have qualified for Russia. theguardian.com is running previews from two countries each day in the run-up to the tournament kicking off on 14 June.
Gareth Southgate committed to a three-man defence back in the autumn, tweaking the 4-2-3-1 system which had been successfully employed through a comfortable qualification campaign. The manager is now convinced a variation of 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 is the best way to eke performances and possession from a youthful group.
At first glance it appeared a risky tactic given England are not blessed with top quality centre-halves. Yet the decision in March to employ Kyle Walker as the right sided central defender in the back-line, with Kieran Trippier coming in at wing-back, looks inspired. The Manchester City defender tucks in off the flank with his club, and injects pace and forward intent to the national team’s rearguard that will surely have the ball-playing John Stones at its heart, and the hugely promising Harry Maguire, Gary Cahill or Eric Dier on the left. It also allows England to exploit their principal assets: their wing-back options, whether Walker and Trippier on one side, or Danny Rose on the opposite flank.
Dier could, of course, feature in defensive midfield and there may be times at the tournament when Southgate feels the need to employ two holding players to shield those at the back. Yet, when England need to be more progressive (against Panama and Tunisia in the group, for example), the 3-5-2 should see two forward thinking No 8s – plucked from Dele Alli, Jesse Lingard or Ruben Loftus-Cheek, for example – and either Dier or, more likely, Jordan Henderson as the central pivot.
Given the lack of a natural playmaker, a No 10 who can create from the centre, packing midfield with energy and, in Loftus-Cheek’s case, a blend of skill and power seems a sensible alternative. “I think the system gives us good stability and it gives us easier solutions for our midfield players as well,” said Southgate. “Then there is a possibility to switch with what we play in front of it: maybe get two strikers in for certain games, or two midfielders off a forward, or three in midfield and two forwards.”
He certainly has options. If Harry Kane leads the line, he can be supported either by the elusive Raheem Sterling, the promising Marcus Rashford, the party’s leading scorer Danny Welbeck, an out-and-out strike partner in Jamie Vardy, or a pair of attacking midfielders or wingers. Either way, Sterling already feels key to the system. The City player has just enjoyed his most productive club season yet, and brought that form to the England set-up in March. “That was good to see because, if we play 3-4-3, we know Raheem can play the No 10 role as he did against France last year,” said Southgate. “But could he play as one of two forwards when he usually plays on the wing for Manchester City?
“We know he likes playing through the middle and his performance reminded me of that little spell at Liverpool where he was behind Luis Suárez and Daniel Sturridge, running and dribbling through the middle of the park,” Southgate continued. Sterling has yet to illuminate a major finals and so much depends upon whether he is confident and content when the campaign begins in Volgograd.
Probable starting XI
Which player is going to surprise everyone at the World Cup?
Ruben Loftus-Cheek goes to the tournament in the best form of his fledgling career. The Chelsea loanee is powerfully built, skilful in possession and deceptively quick across the turf. He thrived on international debut against Brazil in November and has long been championed by Southgate.
Which player is likely to disappoint?
Harry Kane will be convinced he can claim the tournament’s Golden Boot and, having struggled to make an impact at Euro 2016, will be anxious to make his mark. Yet the ankle injury he sustained in mid-March did blunt his form in Spurs’ jittery run-in. He has appeared rusty in the period since. Will he hit the ground running in Russia?
What is the realistic aim for England at the World Cup and why?
Passage into the quarter-finals is conceivable and the squad boasts the talent to achieve that goal. It would be welcome after the trauma of Brazil 2014, when England stumbled in their group and effectively exited the tournament six days into their campaign. Anything beyond the last eight is improbable, particularly given the calibre of opponent they would meet at that stage.
Dominic Fifield writes for the Guardian.
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