It’s kind of my job to say things about what just happened, but at times like this it’s a really tough one. The scenes at Twickenham. Joe Marler is bawling his eyes out – as is every Welsh person in the stadium, albeit for very different reasons.
England won’t believe they’ve lost it and THAT CALL to put the penalty with three minutes to go in the corner will be dissected long and hard. But.
To focus on England now would be churlish and partisan. What a performance by Wales. The guts they showed there were like very little we’ve seen in the World Cup before: seven points down they lost three more players to injury. They had a scrum half on for their full-back and a fly-half for a wing. They were battered and bruised and beaten. And they won. Dan Biggar showed nerves for which the description “steel” is insufficient.
Stick around for the match report and all the discussion to come from that match. Believe me, there will be a lot. I need a drink moment.
Thanks for all your tweets and emails, sorry I couldn’t use them all. And thanks for reading. Bye!
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You’re not the only one, Steve.
@WriterLiz81 @DanLucas86 YEEEEEEAAAAAAHHHHHHHSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!
— Steve Wilson (@wilbur101) September 26, 2015
You’re not the only one, Liz.
@DanLucas86 noooooooooooooo!
— WriterLiz81 (@WriterLiz81) September 26, 2015
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Full-time: England 25-28 Wales
80 min A big, big push from England and Faletau picks it up at the base. Into contact he goes. Slow ball, obviously... back to Biggar and he thumps it into the stands!
That call.
79 min Wales win their lineout ball through Charteris and Davies sends it up with the box kick. It makes almost no ground though and England have the lineout 10 metres out on the right... but they drop it! Welsh scrum, inside their own 22. There are 40 seconds on the clock. That call to put the penalty in the corner.
78 min What a call. Ford sticks it into the corner and with two minutes left England go for the win. It’s thrown to Parling, but a great defensive maul from Wales shoves them uncerimoniously into touch!
They’re going for the corner!
77 min It’s scrappy, but England get the ball from the lineout. In it comes to Vunipola, who takes it into contact, before England go right. Watson looks to dance down the right but there’s no room for him there. Back inside it comes, then Farrell goes round on the loop. Brown takes it into the 22, then a penalty against Warburton for not releasing the player!
76 min Priestland sends it high and Cuthbert wraps up Ford. Wales get a bit enthusiastic on the follow-up though and concede the penalty for not releasing the tackled player inside the England half. Farrell sticks it into touch on the left, 26 metres out.
Penalty! (Biggar 75) England 25-28 Wales
From 49 metres, right in front, Biggar sends it swirling through! For the first time since the 24th minute, Wales lead!
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74 min Penalty to Wales as Brown catches a high one on halfway, but holds on in the tackle! Great work at the breakdown by Warburton to get over it and win the turnover here. Biggar will have a shot at goal.
@DanLucas86 not sure I can watch this anymore
— Kirsty Lucas (@KirstyLucas) September 26, 2015
73 min Watson was caught badly out of position for that try. Can England come back? Is momentum going to give Wales the win? Brookes is on for Dan Cole as we enter a kicking exchange.
Conversion (Biggar 72) England 25-25 Wales
How about those nerves?
Try! (Gareth Davies 71) England 25-23 Wales
Wales go through the hands, getting it wide to North but there’s no room and May smothers him. Left they go instead and Lloyd Williams grubbers ahead. Oh there’s a freak bounce and the ball comes inside to Gareth Davies, who picks up 10 metres out and goes under the stick unopposed!
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70 min In fact it’s Burgess going off for Ford, with Farrell going to 12. I wonder if England might consider starting these two against Australia. Bradley Davies and Dan Lydiate go off, Charteris and Tipuric come on in their stead.
Penalty (Farrell 69) England 25-18 Wales
From right in front of the posts, Farrell chips it over. That’s his match done though, as Ford comes on to stretch this battered Welsh backline.
68 min England pick and drive, just three metres out. The penalty is coming, so Wigglesworth plays the kick-pass right, Watson volleys it ahead and Wales smother it. Back we go for the penalty as one of the Welsh players came in at the side.
67 min We’re restarting with an England scrum under the Welsh posts. Haskell comes off the back and slams into the husk of the Welsh line.
@DanLucas86 I know you don't like Sam, but it was Barritt out of the line. Sam made the tackles on Roberts and Faletau.
— meanenglishman (@meanenglishman) September 26, 2015
Having seen the replay, you’re right. Sorry, Sam.
I’m so sorry, Wales fans: Biggar is down and hurt. For England, Webber replaces Tom Youngs. Amos and Williams are also receiving treatment. In fact Biggar is up and OK, but Amos is really hurting; it looks like he overextended his arm handing off Farrell. Oh no and Liam Willams is going off on a stretcher. Lloyd Williams replaces him and Priestland comes on for Amos. This is unbelievable.
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66 min Exactly on halfway, in fact. Launchbury grabs it and England form the maul. From it Wigglesworth goes round the corner and gives it to May, who takes it into the 22 and passes inside to Robshaw. It goes right and it goes very loose – the ball pinging between the two sides with countless offloads and countless knock ons.
65 min Another big scrum and England get the penalty. With the advantage they spread it, Brown kicks to Amos and we go back for the penalty. Farrell finds a good touch around halfway on the England left.
64 min This is going to be a late finish. We restart with a penalty to Wales, which Biggar kicks to touch about four metres over halfway – that’s a monster kick! The throw goes long to Faletau before Roberts crashes over the gainline. Right it goes and Burgess has come flying out of the line. There’s an overlap, but England recover well with a good drift and Williams drops it in the tackle from Farrell. Great work from the 10 there, who has been outstanding tonight.
63 min Haskell comes on as Vunipola hobbles off. With Ben Morgan injured, England will be seriously hoping this isn’t serious. Seriously bad news for Wales too as Scott Williams goes off on a stretcher. Cuthbert comes on, so I would expect North to move to centre. Williams looked to hurt his knee while being tackled by Barritt.
62 min A couple of minutes’ break as the walking wounded – Vunipola and Wigglesworth – get some treatment. From the lineout Biggar sends it wide to North and he’s chopped down by a good low tackle from Brown. It goes back left, but then it pops into the hands of Watson and he hacks ahead into the 22! Amos gets back well and Davies clears, then gets the penalty as he’s hit late.
“Isn’t it enough that we have to suffer Warne laughing at his own inanities during the cricket - must he also blight rugby?” asks Marie Meyer.
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61 min Launchbury takes the ball at the lineout and Wigglesworth gets the box kick away to touch. It gives Wales the lineout a couple of metres outside the 22, as Mako Vunipola replaces Marler. England need recharging – his brother Billy is limping too.
That was the George North of old. Wigglesworth and Burgess got blown away by the Northampton man; Vunipola was barely more effective.
60 min From the restart Wales put North away down the right wing and only a late desperate grab from Vunipola on halfway causes his to slip. It’s flung left and Liam Williams continues the surge. Up to the 22 and Biggar slips a grubber kick into the corner.
Penalty (Biggar 59) England 22-18 Wales
The toughest of the night so far for Biggar, wide on the right and a good 35 metres out. He’s a bit good though.
“What odds on them snatching a draw?” asks my dad.
57 min Faletau comes away off the back of the scrum. Davies has a snipe then it’s a penalty against Vunipola for going off his feet.
56 min Parling rises and takes the lineout at the front and England form a maul, driving it over the 10 metre line. The ball is held up though and Wales get the scrum. “Fuck you,” says a Welsh voice, hilariously close to the referee’s mic.
55 min Two phases from the restart, then Amos goes into the 10 slot and clears. Brown fields and returns, and Amos gathers it very well. Another kick, then England ship it back inside. Farrell grubbers through, but it sits up into the hands of Biggar who clears to touch.
Penalty (Biggar 54) England 22-15 Wales
It’s right in front, 28 metres from the posts. That’s not missing.
53 min The restart comes back to Wales, although Marler nearly snaffles it when the ball goes loose. He knocks on though and Wales have the advantage... then they have the penalty as Robshaw goes diving off his feet at the breakdown. Brainless penalty.
52 min Just what you wanted to know, rugby fans:
With this legend @DavidHasselhoff at Twickenham. Yep we're both supporting Wales hahaha… https://t.co/GYvYTHgM03
— Shane Warne (@ShaneWarne) September 26, 2015
Penalty (Farrell 51) England 22-12 Wales
The Saracens man is perfect from the tee too and keeps England’s buffer.
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50 min Changes as Wood wins the lineout on halfway: Wigglesworth for Youngs, Lee for Francis and Owens for Baldwin. Farrell puts one up and Brown wins the high ball just outside the 22. Roberts doesn’t roll away from the tackle and it’s another England penalty, 10 metres to the right.
49 min Another long kick from Biggar is run back by Vunipola up over halfway. Barritt, then Cole takes it on. Is it really only five years since the Leicester prop made his debut? Wales win the turnover and go right to North, but he has no space and is tackled into touch by a Burgess-Robshaw combo.
Penalty (Biggar 48) England 19-12 Wales
30 metres out, about five to the left and Biggar maintains his perfect record from the tee.
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47 min Another penalty as Wales shuffle the ball left, against Wood for not rolling away. That’s a couple of penalties the blindside has given away now, which has slightly marred an otherwise excellent performance from him.
46 min Farrell returns the kick with a garryowen that Williams fields well. Another kick and England run it back, but Faletau wins a turnover. Hands in the ruck and it’s a penalty, with Davies takes quickly. Right they go and Liam Williams makes a surging run into England territory.
45 min From the restart Ben Youngs spots a gap and goes slaloming upfield. He gives it on to Watson, who is stopped, so the ball goes back to Burgess. He sends a quite woeful kick from halfway straight to Liam Williams down the middle and that’s a real waste.
Penalty (Farrell 44) England 19-9 Wales
From out on the left, a bit, Farrell slots it from the 22 and England’s 10-point lead is restored.
43 min Wales come offside and England get the early penalty. Three easy points here for Farrell.
Liam Rooney is not happy with the refereeing: “Jerome Garces has happened to the Welsh scrum. He has got every penalty wrong, including the one against Cole, which was Jenkins dragging him down. Baffled why Nigel Owens is the only top level ref who is consistent on this set piece.”
I need to go back and rewatch them, to be honest. This MBMing is a fast-paced thing!
42 min Parling pops it down and Burgess crashes into the defence. Tom Youngs carries on well as England shift it left and make ground. Barritt steps back inside, then Cole goes, with Wales trying to hold him up and form the maul.
PEEP! We’re back underway here and there is a change, surprisingly on the England side: Launchbury is on for Courtney Lawes, who must have a knock as he impressed in the first half. Vunipola returns a kick with a big charge up over halfway, before Ben Youngs carries it on. Farrell kicks over the top and Biggar fumbles it into touch.
Just seen a shot of Andres Iniesta on the telly. I thought it was Jaco Peyper.
“Being 7 points up doesn’t keep The Fear away,” says Patrick Foyle, sagely.
“England scrum ‘strong’ because ref not picking up Marler boring in,” reckons Neil Mackenzie.
I’m not sure. You’re right that Marler bores in, but that didn’t stop England getting shoved off the ball by Fiji. Meanwhile speaking for everyone, I think:
@DanLucas86 pic.twitter.com/7UZd63sS32
— AndyinBrum (@AndyinBrum) September 26, 2015
That was predictably absorbing. What has happened to England’s scrum though?! Surely the added weight of Billy Vunipola hasn’t had that much impact?
Half-time: England 16-9 Wales
Time for one last play and Farrell restarts unsurprisingly deep. It’s taken in, Davies sticks it into touch and that’s the half.
Updated
Penalty (Biggar 40) England 16-9 Wales
From right in front of the posts, Dan Biggar gets Wales back within a score.
39 min England scramble back, but Brown goes offside and concede a penalty inside the 22. That run from Williams was the first time that Wales have looked to attack Burgess’s positioning; I’d put money on Australia having taken note of that.
38 min Now Wales go through the hands, getting it right to Scott Williams who cuts through the England defence with far too much ease, going on the arc into the 22!
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37 min Slow ball now for Wales, as North comes off his wing looking for a way to get involved. Liam Williams stabs a kick through and it looks as though Brown fumbles it in his 22. It goes marginally backwards though, and he recovers. England clear to halfway.
Key period this...if Wales go in 10 points down at h/t they'll be looking straight down the barrel.. #ENGvWAL
— robert kitson (@robkitson) September 26, 2015
36 min Vunipola comes off the back of the scrum, before Farrell hits it long down the middle. Williams returns with a high one and wins it back, then Roberts surges into Burgess with exactly the kind of bang you would expect.
35 min But the ball gets held up in the maul as Lawes wedges himself into the middle of it, earning his side a scrum.
34 min At last some success for Wales, as Cole goes to ground and concedes the penalty. Biggar sticks it into touch on the right, a metre inside the 22.
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32 min This time Wales do win the lineout and from it Davies goes on a mighty charge down the left. They recycle and go right, but, under heavy pressure from England’s rush defence, Biggar fumbles a poor pass from Jenkins on halfway. Another scrum to England.
31 min An exchange of kicks and England have it in the middle of the park. Youngs kicks, then Liam Williams sends a raking return into the corner, making May play it. The Gloucester man is in a tight squeeze, but he gets it to Brown who puts an outstanding clearance into touch, five metres inside the Welsh half.
30 min Youngs clears to touch on the right. Warren Gatland doesn’t look a happy man and it’s understandable: his team is getting beaten at Warrenball. Piling on the misery, Parling steals then lineout, Jones climbs up and drags him out the air and it’s a penalty. Farrell misses touch though.
Conversion (Farrell 29) England 16-6 Wales
Just to the left, just outside the 22, Farrell adds the extras.
Try! May (27) England 14-6 Wales
Youngs finds Wood and England go quickly left across the field. Brown is nearly in after Watson comes off his wing, but the final pass goes to ground. It doesn’t matter though as England have numbers and recycle quickly, and Youngs puts May over in the corner!
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26 min Wales are going backwards here thanks to some ferocious tackling from England around the fringes. Lydiate eventually gets penalised for holding on as Robshaw gets over him. Farrell finds touch just inside the 22, on the right.
25 min Wales need to sort that scrum out; don’t be surprised if we see Samson Lee earlier than Gatland had planned. May returns the restart into touch, on his own 10 metre line. Bradley Davies takes it and Wales work the ball inside, but they’re not gaining any ground; Burgess stopping the charging Jamie Roberts.
Penalty (Farrell 24) England 9-6 Wales
From 23 metres out, right in front of the sticks, Farrell puts England in the lead for the first time in the match.
@thejonathanb @DanLucas86 Dallaglio's just making an unannounced tribute to the late Yogi Berra. Though he may not know that..
— Drew Kenfield (@philosofootball) September 26, 2015
22 min England’s scrum has been the better of the two so far and they have a real chance here, a metre or so outside the Wales 22. The backs are lined up in a queue behind it, giving them options on either side. It’s another massive shove from England and they get the penalty. Three easy points, this.
21 min Wood gets up and steals it! England pick and drive, looking to push their way up towards the 22, but then one of the Wales players cuts Wood in half leading with a shoulder across the legs and we have pushing and shoving. To be honest there was very little in it. Scrum England, as they were in possession, but Garces decides Lydiate’s tackle was legal.
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20 min Pressure on Youngs here with a throw just inside his own 22, on the England left. Wood is solid though and takes at the front, before Youngs has a dart off the back of a maul. Right it goes and Burgess makes a yard, but then Wood is turned as England move it on. Wood rips it back though and Farrell clears to Biggar; he returns with a high one and the ball bounces into the arms of Vunipola. It’s at risk of getting a bit messy, so Youngs chips nicely into touch on the Welsh 22.
19 min Youngs sends up a high one and Biggar takes brilliantly on the right touchline. Wales look to shuffle down the short side, but there’s a foot in touch.
Drop-goal (Farrell 18) England 6-6 Wales
They’re going backwards though and Wales flankers are slowing it down well. It goes back to Farrell 40 metres out and his drop goal effort is scuffed, but somehow drifts over!
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17 min Again the restart is long to Faletau. He drives up to the 22, then Biggar kicks straight down the throat of Vunipola who smashes his way up towards the Welsh 22. Right it comes and Parling pops inside to Farrell, then Youngs dummies and snipes past Baldwin. England well into Welsh territory now.
Penalty (Biggar 16) England 3-6 Wales
It’s a mighty tough one, but Biggar is no mug with the boot and he slots it perfectly down the middle.
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15 min Biggar is going for goal again, 38 metres out but very wide on the right.
14 min Boos ring out as the ball is pinged back to Biggar in the pocket, a fair way out and on the angle. It drifts rather limply wide and Farrell restarts with a drop-out, which Jones takes well. Speaking of taking well, Biggar sends it up and Brown is solid in his 22. We’re going back for a Welsh penalty though as Cole went flopping over the ball there.
13 min Wales regather from the restart and probe down the left. There’s nothing on there, so back right it comes, with Biggar dummying and nearly going through a gap.
Penalty (Farrell 12) England 3-3 Wales
Not an easy one, this: 45 metres out and on the angle. Farrell is in the team largely to kick these though and kick it he does!
@DanLucas86 Lawrence Dallaglio on TV: 'This is the most significant match between these two sides since they last met".
— Jonathan (@thejonathanb) September 26, 2015
Heh, yeah that did make me chuckle.
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11 min Scrum England, 15 in, just inside the Welsh half. It’s another good drive from the England pack and there’s a big cheer as Garces sticks his arm up, penalising Wales for wheeling illegally. Farrell will look to level the scores.
10 min Biggar finds touch well, on the left, just inside his own half. Baldwin’s throw isn’t straight though.
9 min This time England win the lineout, with Wood taking at the front. The maul is well defended, so Burgess has a dart. He’s stopped so Marler takes it on, but Roberts seals it off very well after making the tackle and the Quins prop is penalised for holding on.
8 min Robshaw takes it up on the crash ball, but then Farrell’s kick to the corner doesn’t find touch. Amos clears, Brown runs it back to halfway and then England go through the hands. It’s shipped out to Watson, who chips ahead and Gareth Davies has to slide it back into touch five out from his own line.
7 min And they pass the test, getting the penalty as Gethin Jenkins doesn’t bind correctly. Farrell kicks to touch on the right, just over the Welsh 10 metre line. First lineout then and, what do you know, it’s stolen by Wales. Davies kicks clear to Watson, who jinks back up over halfway.
6 min Big moment this for England’s under-pressure – literally – scrum.
5 min Burgess goes back and kicks clear, but not well. Wales have a lineout on halfway. From it, Biggar chips over the top and Wales regain it outside the 22 as Barritt is turned. The ball gets stuck in the ruck and Wales get the scrum.
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4 min Farrell’s restart is, unlike Biggar’s kick-off, long into the 22, where Faletau takes. Davies kicks long and Vunipola comes back on the charge. Burgess gets his first touch on the Welsh 10 metre line and coughs it up in contact, but England regain and go left, where Wood then May make ground. Ben Youngs chips down the short side, but Biggar fields it well and clears back into the England 22. Poor kick that from Youngs.
Penalty (Biggar 3) England 0-3 Wales
From 15 metres infield, on the 22, Biggar makes it first blood to Wales!
Updated
2 min Baldwin throws to AWJ and Wales form the maul. It crabs infield, then Wales get another penalty as Lawes comes through the middle and tackles the mauls down.
PEEEP! Jerome Garces blows his whistle and Dan Biggar gets us started. It’s short and taken in by Wood, then Youngs sends it high up the middle for Liam Williams. He takes five metres inside his own half, is tackled and then Tom Youngs is penalised for not rolling away. Biggar kicks to touch in the 22, on the left.
Fiona Reed writes: “I am following your commentary from just outside Amsterdam for my Welsh husband who is in Berlin and isn’t in a position to watch. This is probably better for his blood pressure, but I can feel mine rising! He says England will be too strong, but he’s always pessimistic about, although a passionate supporter of, Wales! COME ON WALES!”
ITV cut to an ad, which is a bit disappointing. One more prediction.
@DanLucas86 watching in Atlanta, USA. I'm Australian, sitting with a Welsh supporter and an English supporter. I'm going Wales by 8.
— Gabrielle Liddle (@Gabstar11) September 26, 2015
Anthems time: I challenge you to find someone who thinks X Factor is a better bet for Saturday night on ITV than this.
An absolute triumph of scheduling from the IRB. Saturday 8pm, Twickenham,terrestrial TV. Be interesting to see the viewing figures. #RWC2015
— Jack Vittles (@JackVittles) September 26, 2015
That atmosphere is absurd. I’m not at Twickenham, but it’s infectious even from here.
Four more minutes. The lights are out at Twickenham, making it look a bit like a Daft Punk gig.
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Because why not?
@DanLucas86 Not sure what's going on here, but been moved to scribble these abominations. Enjoy the game. pic.twitter.com/oQE3SPvFse
— Panini Cheapskates (@CheapPanini) September 26, 2015
“Evening Dan!” Evening, Derek Robertson! “Given what’s at stake tonight, I can only assume we’re going to be in for an 80 minute, Warrenball heavyweight forward slugfest? Can either team really afford to try and throw it around and play a bit? Which means, of course, that it’s going to come down to the referee (again) and whose boot is hottest. (Of course, as a Scot, I’m now relatively calm about our progression from Pool B. Who’d have thought that would have been likely a week ago?)”
Probably, yep. I think if either side gets ahead then they might begin to play a bit more. England would obviously need to make changes to do that, but of the starting XVs Wales easily have the greater wherewithal to play an expansive game. Don’t expect it for the first hour at least though.
According to an ITV poll, 81% of people think England will win tonight. The import of this is slightly reduced when John Inverdale adds the caveat that hte poll was only open to fans in England.
'Swing, Low' rings out as John Taylor reads out the Wales team... this atmosphere is already quite something #ENGvWAL #RWC2015
— Tom Hamilton (@tomESPNscrum) September 26, 2015
I just stuck Robin Hazelhurst’s Welsh mantra into Google Translate. Still not a clue what “Welshman small crying on the fire , big Welshman crying on the floor, And Taff is scratched” means.
Ten minutes until kick-off. How are your nerves?
More familiar names dropping into my inbox. For England, Robin Hazlehurst, whom I hope isn’t swearing: “I’m here, watching this from behind the sofa. Well barstool actually, obviously. Fearing the worst but hoping that I can help England by chanting my Wales-match mantra: Cymro fach yn crio ar y tân, Cymro fawr yn crio ar y llawr, A’r Taff wedi ei scrapo, Jonny’s back!”
And for Wales, it’s Matt Dony. “What the hell. Wales by 20, North hat-trick, Roberts to dish out an old skool schooling on the newbie, Warburton to dominate. It is on! Maybe...”
There’s more though! Philip West writes: “From Istanbul (suitably far away) I can see a close first half followed by a few injuries to Welsh players bringing on weak replacements and England storming away to a 35-15 win.My sister has lived in Wales for over 20 years and she predicts a Welsh win.”
And Fergus Carroll has a question. “At risk of looking too far ahead, do you think it’s preferable for England to have the Australia game next week or should Wales be happier with the schedule? It’s obviously largely dependent on tonight but fun to consider.”
I think England will be happier with the schedule, purely because they have already played Fiji. Any more injuries and Welsh fans should be seriously worried about that one.
“Evening Dan.” Evening, Simon McMahon. “Given that defeat for either side could prove fatal to their World Cup hopes, what’s the chance of them playing out a West Germany v. Austria style draw? 45-45 perhaps?”
Simon is Scottish. You can probably tell from this suggestion that he’s not an England or Wales fan.
If you refresh the page, then it’ll show the actual tweets with predictions and hide my copy-and-paste fallibility.
Get yer predictions in! Two of you have already. I’m sticking with Wales by four as when I wrote that preamble last night.
@DanLucas86 Dr Jaime to show Sam B how 2 play in a massive test match. Big game experience will b key the doc has plenty of it. Wales by 6!
— John McEnerney (@MackerOnTheMed) September 26, 2015
@DanLucas86 England 25-15, mostly penalties. That's what the head says. The heart, a treacherous little blighter, fears Wales to win by six…
— Martin Pengelly (@MartinPengelly) September 26, 2015
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About being nervous:
@DanLucas86 this is my current state of being pic.twitter.com/yzmeWUP0HV
— AndyinBrum (@AndyinBrum) September 26, 2015
This is probably the case in most rugby matches, but the scrum is of huge importance tonight. England stick with the front row that’s been getting mightily pounded over the last month or so and tonight they go up against Tomas Francis. There may be a number of Andes more mobile than the Wales prop, but he was immense when I saw him play for Exeter last season – he gave Alex Corbisiero a proper schooling – and was one of Wales’ best players in the warm-up win over Ireland. If he and Wales get on top early on then I can’t see them not winning this.
“Yeah, we’re here,” writes Damian Clarke in response to the 19.08 entry. “But we’re all simply enjoying Slowdive on loop till KO.”
You sound like a wise man, Damian.
Some people are way too hard to please.
@DanLucas86 That pitch is *too* perfect. It's like Twickenham: smooth, glassy and corporate. Give me Kingsholm's slightly iffy sward anyday.
— Martin Pengelly (@MartinPengelly) September 26, 2015
It’s a shame that England have picked such a defensive team, given the ironing board pitch and the clear weather we’re expecting.
A question for readers who like a riff then: what books should Jonny May and Anthony Watson take with them to read tonight?
Oh my. That pitch makes me feel all funny inside, it’s so glorious.
When are they going to sort this shocking playing surface out? #ENGvWAL pic.twitter.com/Y6eEgJIAkF
— Graham Jenkins (@grahamajenkins) September 26, 2015
Anyone out there? You’re all busy laughing at Chelsea/Man City, aren’t you?
Gary Naylor, the man whose presence makes an MBM, has an alternative music selection:
PAUL ROBESON SWING LOW SWEET CHARIOT https://t.co/CFtRgv8dyf Some music for England tonight and Jeremy Corbyn tomorrow @danlucas86
— Gary Naylor (@garynaylor999) September 26, 2015
Pah, give me Slowdive every time.
So Slammin’ Sam starts, which means we should probably talk about him. I was talking to my Dad about this earlier: I wouldn’t be surprised if Gatland wasn’t just relying on Roberts to stop him from crashing it over the gain line today. Inside him, Farrell is unlikely to try and make too many metres with ball in hand, so it could be that Dan Lydiate plays the Joe Worsley axeman role, doubling up the defence on the rugby league convert, looking to chop him down before he can even get to the backline.
Speaking of rugby league converts, here’s a typically excellent piece from Andy Bull on the dodgy precedent Burgess is looking to break.
We’re excited about this one, here at Guardian Towers. So much so that, as you may have noticed, we’ve got the MBM underway TWO WHOLE HOURS before the game kicks-off! That in mind, I’m going to get some snacks before we do any more build up. Here’s some music.
There is another juicy match, happening right now, as it happens. Catch the final 20 minutes or so of South Africa v Samoa with Barry Glendenning, right here!
Preamble
Evening, folks. How are you feeling? Excited? Pumped up? Bored of the phony war? Nervous? If you have a vested interest in this game then I know the answer: you’re nervous.
Let’s look at Wales first. Never mind the injury crisis that has now reached a critical stage. Don’t think it’s critical? Well there are people on that social media they have now – not sensible people, mind, but people, who have computers and smartphones and everything – who are suggesting that Wales might be looking at Gavin Henson. Gavin Henson, who currently plays Championship rugby for Bristol. This raises three questions. One: what has James Hook done to Warren Gatland? Two: should anyone not make it through this encounter with a beefed-up England side unscathed, then who the hell is left to call upon? And three: What are these people smoking?
Injuries are one thing, the ramifications of losing this match are quite another. It may only be Wales’s second match of the tournament, but should they lose then it’s already going to be a mighty struggle ahead for Gatland’s limping squad. Fiji are up next in just five days’ time and, though the Pacific islanders have lost both of their matches so far, they look eminently capable of beating a tier one side. Wales would need to win that one, then, in all likelihood, beat an Australia side who may have missed out on the bonus point against Fiji but looked like they could be cooking up a very dangerous side.
The Welsh last won at Twickenham in 2012. They could really, really, do with doing so again tonight.
How about you England fans though? Stuart Lancaster has made the biggest call of his four-year tenure here, ripping up not just England’s midfield, but their entire gameplan with it. Owen Farrell has been brought in for his goal-kicking and his tackling, Sam Burgess makes only his second start for England – and indeed his second start in this position for anyone in six months or so – at inside centre and Brad Barritt goes outside of him. Barritt is England’s best tackler and his communication in organising the defensive line is outstanding, but the lightning feet, blistering speed and elegant passing game of Jonathan Joseph he does lack. Lancaster says his selection is not a defensive one to counter Wales’s specific threat; don’t believe a word of it.
Burgess v Jamie Roberts is a fascinating contest. England’s gameplan is clear: use the big former rugby league man and his deft offloading game to break the gainline, keep Wales on the backfoot and prevent Warrenball from happening. There are no questions about Burgess’s aptitude for that role, but he’s by no means the complete player some would have you believe. He has a tendency to tackle high, around the chest and shoulders, which is fine when you’re flattening a diminutive French centre or Irish back-up fly-half, but quite another when you’re going up against a British and Irish Lion who, going forward, is the human equivalent of a barrel from Donkey Kong. He can be slow on the turn though, so Mike Brown is going to have to be watchful as a fly-half as smart as Dan Biggar will look to exploit any space behind the three-quarters.
All around the park though, there are fascinating battles. Can England’s scrum, so creaky against Fiji, Ireland and France, dominate or even match the huge Welsh pack? Will Sam Warburton’s jackaling and scrounging win out against the defence and the big ball carries from England’s back row? Is Alun Wyn Jones going to give Tom Youngs nightmares, or will Courtney Lawes get the better of him as he did the last time they faced off in the 2014 Six Nations?
Having already beaten Fiji, a loss would probably be slightly less devastating for England than it would for Wales. They would probably have to beat Australia or hope that both the Wallabies and Fiji can do for the Welsh. Obviously given the choice they would choose the former (well, they’d probably choose beating Wales tonight, but we’re being hypothetical here) and, even if they were to lose this one, home advantage and their recent record would make them confident they could do so.
If you want a prediction, I’m going with Wales by four points. But then I might be wrong. That’s kinda the point of having these games after all.
Kick-off is at 8pm BST. Does anyone know how much longer we’re on BST for, by the way? Here are your teams:
England
Mike Brown; Anthony Watson, Brad Barritt, Sam Burgess, Jonny May, Owen Farrell, Ben Youngs; Joe Marler, Tom Youngs, Dan Cole, Geoff Parling, Courtney Lawes, Tom Wood, Chris Robshaw, Billy Vunipola. Replacements: Rob Webber, Mako Vunipola, Kieran Brookes, Joe Launchbury, James Haskell, Richard Wigglesworth, George Ford, Alex Goode.
Wales
Liam Williams; George North, Scott Williams, Jamie Roberts, Hallam Amos; Dan Biggar, Gareth Davies; Gethin Jenkins, Scott Baldwin, Tomas Francis, Bradley Davies, Alun Wyn Jones, Dan Lydiate, Sam Warburton (capt), Taulupe Faletau. Replacements: Ken Owens, Aaron Jarvis, Samson Lee, Luke Charteris, Justin Tipuric, Lloyd Williams, Rhys Priestland, Alex Cuthbert.
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