‘It’s a wide open tournament,” Gary Cahill was quoted as saying when England qualified behind Wales. One hesitates to disagree with an England captain but wide open group stage leading to an unbalanced knockout phase might be more accurate.
Cahill might care to interview his new club manager on the subject of how wide open the next stage promises to be. Antonio Conte was moaning in Lille a few evenings ago, ever so politely and philosophically, but basically still moaning, that a team that finishes on top of its group deserves a slightly better break than the holders and recent world champions Spain in the last 16. The Italy coach has a point, too.
In an expanded tournament format specifically designed to encourage small teams to take part, a challenge that has been enthusiastically and entertainingly taken up, one would expect a meeting of such heavyweights later in the proceedings. Perhaps in the final, as happened in 2012.
There is no need for such close seeding control that the most powerful teams are prevented from meeting each other until the sharp end of the tournament, but Conte is entitled to wonder where is the justice in an arrangement whereby Italy win their first two matches to secure top spot in quick order and receive Spain, whereas England win a single game with a 92nd-minute goal to finish behind Wales yet end up with a good chance of advancing against Iceland.
That is how Conte will see it, at any rate. Italy would have taken Iceland all day long. England should be happy too, even if all the ingredients are there for the convoy to end up in the ditch in the most spectacular fashion. Not only did Roy Hodgson fail to scout Iceland when he had free time in Paris, a minor detail really but a free gift to Lars Lagerback and his already acute eye for a motivational opportunity, the England manager promised his side would make someone pay when the day arrived for all the chances to go in. Could Monday be that day?
Of course it could, but anyone keeping even half an eye on this tournament will be aware it could go the other way as well. Not necessarily to the extent of Roy’s boys taking a hell of a beating, but you do not have to have watched many damp squibs at Wembley to understand that England frequently struggle to break down packed defences and impose themselves on opponents intent on staying behind the ball.
Hodgson would have you believe any team would, though that was not how West Brom’s Gareth McAuley felt about trying to hold out for 90 minutes against Germany. The timing and weight of Mesut Özil and Toni Kroos’s passing, McAuley felt, coupled with the precise and intelligent way the wide players cut in to find space, was vastly superior to anything he had encountered before. It is true that Germany scored only one goal – Joachim Löw practically had to apologise for it afterwards – though they were in elegant control of the game the whole time and even Northern Ireland fans will admit the Germans were unlucky not to be two or three up at half-time.
Until such time as England have an orchestrator like Özil and forwards of the stealth and invention of Thomas Müller and Mario Götze to launch behind defences, they will continue to have difficulty with teams as pragmatic as Iceland who, like the two Irelands and perhaps to a lesser extent Wales, take what might be termed a Premier League approach to stifling opponents.
Jamie Vardy prospered in that league last term but he will find space denied him next season, and if Hodgson thinks Iceland will defend deep he should not start him in Nice. Cleverness is what is called for against negative opponents. The Harry Kane-Dele Alli axis should be given a chance and, though it might be an unpopular call, this could be the occasion for Raheem Sterling to finally prove his worth. He will not find much space to run into but if encouraged to take on opponents he could at least prove a distraction on one flank and help create openings elsewhere on the pitch.
In case this seems too much like shillyshallying or sitting on the fence, here’s a prediction. England will win the phoney war (cod war?) against Iceland, though only after a great deal of huffing and puffing, then be too exhausted to go further than the resultant quarter-final. Everyone seems to assume they will meet their match in France, though not that many French supporters out here seem that confident. This is not a great French team and, Dimitri Payet apart, they have not wholly convinced in any of their games so far. Their style of play can often suit England’s strengths.
France v England would be a great quarter-final, an open contest and, as long as England keep their nerve, it might be a closer encounter than many imagine. But here’s the thing. Suppose it is not France. Suppose the fact that all four teams from Britain and Ireland made it through their groups was actually telling us something. Suppose the quarter-final in Saint-Denis is the Republic of Ireland v England (or even Iceland), and Premier League-type football can build a bridgehead all the way into the last four?
A far-fetched scenario, it must be admitted. Premier League-type football tends to wither and die when confronted with teams such as Germany and Spain who can actually use the ball and know how to make space. Think of the Republic getting what looked like their comeuppance against Belgium. Yet the Republic are still around. And France are not in Germany or Spain’s category. As Conte conceded when admitting that his Italian side had been roughed up, duffed up but ultimately fairly shoved aside by an Irish team playing from the heart, there is more than one way to play football and the amount of grit and determination Premier League-type teams can bring to their game can be intimidating. Tony Pulis would have been proud of him, in fact West Brom’s Welsh manager might even be teaching him. Conte referenced long balls, physical challenges and putting it in the mixer. The English education seems to be coming on well.
