England will undertake their Test tour of South Africa without two of their key fast bowlers. Neither Steven Finn nor Mark Wood, both of whom played important roles in the regaining of the Ashes last summer, will be in the Test squad, which is to be announced on Thursday.
Finn acquired a foot injury just before the first Test against Pakistan in Abu Dhabi in October. Wood played in the first two Tests before being ruled out of the last one because of a chronic ankle injury. Neither has recovered quickly enough to be considered for selection for the Tests in South Africa. For Wood there will now be urgent consultations with the experts about the possibility of an operation.
This is a significant blow to England before the four-match series against South Africa, which begins on Boxing Day in Durban. Either Wood or Finn would have been in their Test XI.
There is better news about Ben Stokes, whose shoulder was displaced when diving in the field in the third Test in Sharjah. He is available for selection. Therefore he will undoubtedly be selected.
The replacements for Finn and Wood are most likely in Dubai at the moment. England will select five fast bowlers for the tour as well as their all-rounder, Stokes. Obviously Jimmy Anderson and Stuart Broad are certainties. Among the pacemen here are Liam Plunkett, probably the quickest option, plus Chris Jordan and Chris Woakes. Other candidates might include Mark Footitt of Surrey, who is 29 yet unproven at the highest level, but is left-handed thereby offering some variety. Another left-armer, David Willey, is in Dubai but his red-ball credentials are currently limited.
The chances of Woakes returning to the Test fold are greatly enhanced by the injury situation and also his flurry of wickets in the ODI series against Pakistan. After a drought, which encompassed six ODIs, he has taken eight wickets in his last two outings.
Woakes acknowledged the happy timing of his success while recognising the limitations of their relevance: “Whenever there is a squad announcement coming up it is good to be in decent form, but this is a one-day tour, which is a bit different to playing Test cricket.”
However he is keen to point out that he does not wish to be a modern “specialist”. “I want to play in all three formats if possible. I have had a taste of Test cricket and would love to play some more. To be in the Test squad again would be fantastic. But at the moment I’m trying to focus on this tour, which is very important.”
It would now be a surprise if Woakes was not included in the Test squad for South Africa.
A fit and firing pace attack is critical to success in South Africa but the selectors will have debated other areas earnestly. Moeen Ali will surely remain as the solitary spinner but another will be taken and the expectation is that Adil Rashid will remain in the Test squad despite his modest returns in the series against Pakistan.
Even though Jos Buttler, a three-format man for the past 12 months, may be in need of a break he will probably tour as well. But this time he is likely to start as the reserve wicketkeeper to Jonny Bairstow, who took over behind the stumps for the last Test against Pakistan in Sharjah.
The trickiest decision probably concerns opening batsmen. The experiment with Moeen was not a success in the UAE and it is therefore anticipated that Alex Hales will start the South Africa series at the top of the order with Alastair Cook, who in recent years has had almost as many partners of various shapes and sizes as Anton du Beke. Too many of them have displayed the same sense of timing as Ann Widdecombe.
England may well recall Gary Ballance, who, at the very least, offers cover throughout the middle order and if they opt to have 17 players in their squad there is also scope for another opening batsman. This is where the most vigorous head-scratching among the selectors might occur. The possibilities include previous incumbents Nick Compton and Adam Lyth.
Meanwhile the 22-year-old Alex Lees is highly regarded but he had an ordinary season for Yorkshire last summer. Sadly there seem to be obvious caveats to all the candidates.