So which side are going to be thrashed at The Oval? The series between England and South Africa has not been short of incident or interest but, while it stands tantalisingly at 1-1, a tense, fingernail chewing finish to a Test has been the missing ingredient. Add a couple of those and we have a series to remember for a long time. Modern cricketers do not seem so adept at digging themselves out of holes.
After their massive win at Trent Bridge, South Africa will pitch up at The Oval in a buoyant frame of mind for the third Test. Many of their players have popped home for a few days, which is understandable given that the time difference between the two countries is minimal and that most of them have been here since mid-May.
There is a danger though. It can be difficult to switch back on after leaving a tour for rest and recuperation. There have been plenty of examples of this, the most recent being the exodus of England’s players from India to Dubai in the middle of last winter’s tour. It may not have been a coincidence that they were less purposeful on their return.
However, Faf du Plessis is likely to be aware of any pitfalls. The South Africa captain was on top of everything at Trent Bridge, where he controlled every aspect of the match while scoring a few runs himself. It was fascinating to hear how he reacted after Chris Morris had delivered a tepid first spell. Did he urge Morris to get out his laptop at the next break, to study his action and to embark on an urgent consultation with the bowling coach? No. He told Morris to “bowl as fast as you can” – a far more welcome piece of advice, partly because of its simplicity. Thereafter Morris became one of his matchwinners.
Now Du Plessis surely knows his best side, especially since Vernon Philander was doing his Jacques Kallis impersonations (with the bat) in the second Test. A chastened but fiercely determined Kagiso Rabada will return to the team in place of Duanne Olivier, whom Du Plessis sensitively allowed to finish off the England innings (in the record books the wickets of Jimmy Anderson and Mark Wood count the same as Joe Root and Alastair Cook). Thus South Africa will be stronger.
England will not be so sure of their best XI. At least they have been decisive about who is going to bat at three. Essex’s Tom Westley will make his debut at The Oval at the age of 28. This is a mild surprise. There was speculation that Mark Stoneman, now of Surrey, would be chosen, though this was ill-conceived.
Stoneman is an opening batsman and while the technical demands of opening and batting at three are very similar, the routine is very different and therefore unnerving for a debutant, even if he is 30 years old. Moreover, the glowing references to the England management from the Surrey camp about their players, a perfectly reasonable response, may be viewed a little more carefully now. So Stoneman is on hold; if Keaton Jennings has another barren match he may get his chance at Old Trafford.
The selectors’ task is far from easy. There is no red-ball cricket going on, a situation which will be exacerbated further in 2020 when two T20 competitions will squeeze championship cricket even more to the two ends of the season. Not to worry; the game will be much wealthier.
Currently the batting alternatives do not leap on to the page. The selectors’ inclination is to follow the Trevor Bayliss mantra: “I’d rather give someone one Test too many than one too few.” In fact, this is not guaranteed to do the player concerned any favours, especially if he is out of form. The more chances given – as with James Vince last summer – the harder it is for that player to get a recall down the line. Moreover, being dropped then becomes a traumatic experience rather than an occupational hazard.
For The Oval on Thursday they are at least exploring with the inclusion of Westley and possibly Dawid Malan. It is wrong to be a slave to the figures but the simple fact is the vast majority of Test players average more than 40 in first-class cricket. For the record Stoneman averages 34.63 throughout his career, Malan 38.09, Westley 37.44, Jennings 35.66.
This prompts some sympathy for the likes of Ed Joyce (48.04), who will never play Test cricket for England but who might with Ireland, and James Hildreth (43.66), who does not warrant selection currently – he has had a poor season so far – but somewhere along the line perhaps he should have been considered more seriously.
Back in India there was the assumption that the future belonged to Jennings and Haseeb Hameed and that may still be true. But both are having their struggles, with Jennings having to endure them under extreme scrutiny. It may be that both were suited to the non-seaming tracks of the subcontinent. Hameed, in particular, excelled against the spinners in India, but so far this season he has seldom seen one.
There are more uncertainties down the order. The selectors have given Root and Bayliss the option to omit Liam Dawson and to play Malan (though presumably not for his leg-spinners even if he takes his wickets more cheaply than Mason Crane). Bayliss would be uncomfortable doing that since this would require Moeen Ali to bat at No8 again.
Bayliss has recently elucidated on Moeen’s current role (“the second spinner”), which is at odds with him batting at eight. However, keeping Moeen happy – and bear in mind that he is the most amenable cricketer imaginable – is not priority No1; finding the best combination is.
Wood, who has only one wicket from his 56 overs in the series, remains in the squad but there is no guarantee he will stay in the team. So Toby Roland-Jones, 29, is another who can realistically contemplate a Test debut.
