This is the most important white-ball cricket match for England since … well, last Sunday. Beat New Zealand in Chester-le-Street on Wednesday and Eoin Morgan’s side have secured a semi‑final berth, which was regarded as the minimum requirement for England at the outset. Lose and they can be overtaken in the table. A tie would probably be enough – if that becomes an option come Wednesday evening then nobody will be leaving early.
It will be another tense occasion, though quieter than the match against India at Edgbaston. The stakes are the same, however, even if the opposition offers a contrasting challenge and a smaller number of supporters. Ostensibly New Zealand are not as strong as India but they have often had the measure of England in ICC tournaments. England have not beaten New Zealand in the World Cup since 1983, a worrying statistic, which incorporates five consecutive defeats.
Mathematically New Zealand are also not guaranteed to qualify. So their approach could be clouded by concerns about not damaging their net run rate. No such complications apply to England. They have to win (or tie). As expected Kane Williamson, their captain, has been vital to New Zealand’s lofty position in the table. He is their highest runscorer and, more surprisingly, their most economical bowler after propelling 15 overs. Moreover behind his bushy beard he calmly makes the decisions out in the middle.
Williamson provides the ballast in a batting lineup that has spluttered its way through the tournament. He has hit 454 runs so far; his lowest score is 40; his strike rate is a modest 77 but that merely highlights the fact that he makes sure he stays in while hoping that someone will provide a few sparks at the other end. Until now Jimmy Neesham, the veteran Ross Taylor and Colin de Grandhomme have been his likeliest allies. Martin Guptill, who has tormented England in the past, has not really fired yet.
Williamson has seldom been short of options in the field. Trent Boult has become his senior paceman partly because Tim Southee began the tournament injured and since then has been on the sidelines because of the excellence of the others. It is just conceivable that the vastly experienced Southee could make a late, telling appearance in the competition.
The most eye-popping contributions have come from Lockie Ferguson, who always looks as if he has just arrived at the ground in a Spitfire with his moustache and his straight back. He has 17 wickets in the tournament and has bowled fast from wide of the crease. Based on his performances here it seems odd that this 28-year-old has never played a Test match, but that might be on the horizon. For the moment he is Williamson’s ace. Witness his dismissal of David Warner at Lord’s when searing bounce found the edge of the bat. Expect him to have an early bowl at Eoin Morgan at Chester-le-Street. He will offer few opportunities for England’s captain to demonstrate his cover drive.
Neesham has also bowled well for Williamson; the military mediums of De Grandhomme can be handy and there is the option of two spinners in the shape of the all-rounder Mitchell Santner and the leg-spinner Ish Sodhi. The playing surface at Chester‑le‑Street is one of the largest in the country so two spinners could be accommodated by both sides; Morgan’s preference for just one at Edgbaston on Sunday, where there was a short square boundary, looked very good in hindsight.
England
Roy, Bairstow, Root, Morgan, Stokes, Buttler, Woakes, Plunkett, Rashid, Archer, Wood.
New Zealand
Guptill, Nicholls, Williamson, Taylor, Latham, de Grandhomme, Neesham, Santner, Sodhi, Ferguson, Boult.
Both sides will be pondering the best balance of their attack. There is a case for recalling Moeen Ali though that is not certain, since this might well mean omitting Mark Wood, who has impressed throughout the tournament. After his performance at Edgbaston it is hard to imagine Morgan leaving out Liam Plunkett.
Morgan is not a superstitious man but it may not have escaped his notice that in the three games England have lost, Plunkett has been on the sidelines. Moreover despite the “freedom to express” mantra of the team the England hierarchy probably did not appreciate Moeen’s dismissal in that defeat at Headingley to Sri Lanka when his pursuit of a second consecutive six was unsuccessful.
I have no inside knowledge of the state of Jason Roy’s right hand but my expectation is that he will play against New Zealand. Roy was unable to field at Edgbaston – nothing to do with his dodgy hamstring, you understand – because of receiving a blow to his hand when batting. Despite that impediment he batted brilliantly against India. If he stays in for an hour he frightens opponents and somehow Jonny Bairstow, who was also wonderfully fearless in that innings, seems more comfortable with Roy alongside him.
Despite smashing 148 against Afghanistan Morgan’s batting is a source of some concern, especially against the pace bowlers. He has enough in his in-tray not to worry too much about that just now and his contribution as captain is very significant, if hard to measure numerically.
There is, however, a cricketing argument to shuffle the order if England lose early wickets. Technically Ben Stokes is much better equipped to stay in against new, bouncy balls than Morgan. But for all the talk of flexibility it would be a surprise if they made that change; the all-too-easy, though unjustified, charge would be that the England captain is hiding.
If Morgan oversees victory at Chester-le-Street any such issue will be a pinprick. England would then be contemplating their first World Cup semi-final for 27 years.
