When the end came, it was predictably melodramatic and confrontational. But Judith Collins' removal from the National leadership was not surprising, writes Tim Murphy.
Judith Collins' departure from the role of Leader of the Opposition was inevitable. From October 17, 2020.
The 13 months that has followed that historic general election loss has largely been wasted by the National Party. Collins stayed in her job, the caucus remained divided and the party's poll ratings remained in the 20s, the zone of death.
On that ill-fated night at the Royal NZ Yacht Squadron in Auckland, Collins tried to talk about that moment being the start of the party's campaign to win again in 2023. It was simply unbelievable.
She won her long-craved for position as leader at a time of crisis, following the 53-day tenure and meltdown by Todd Muller. National was up against a Government it said was failing New Zealand in handling the Covid crisis but the public chose to reward for saving lives. But Collins did not possess the retail political skill or human appeal to win electoral respect.
The headlines over her demise have been constant. Has any leader ever had more rounds, in just a year, of the 'dead woman walking' cliche? The polls have been brutal - for the party and for Collins the leader.
And not because Jacinda Ardern and Labour soared - the reverse was true with Labour dropping 10 points and Ardern a similar amount in the preferred Prime Minister stakes.
As Collins flailed, unsure how hard to go on the race and 'freedom' cards, ACT won a legion of National's possible voters and David Seymour presented as a smart king of the soundbite, consistently picking the wind shifts better than Collins. The final example of that was when ACT stood aside from the celebrated bipartisan deal on allowing urban intensification, and stood to gain from the reaction of those in the major cities as they realised the implications not just for Nimbyism but for light, space, design, and liveability. It is an issue a new leader might well revisit.
Collins' defenestration of Nick Smith, Todd Muller and now the full frontal attempt on Bridges, coupled with the sidelining of the effective Chris Bishop as shadow leader of the house, were moments of weakness rather than strength. She couldn't take out all her opponents before tolerance of National's lack of performance and hope ran out.
The Collins leadership had an air of imposter syndrome about it. Wouldn't people eventually realise that for all the bluster, there wasn't really much on offer at all?
As the change of leadership - long figured to be due about April or May next year, half way through the electoral cycle - became unavoidable, her defensiveness corroded further her position and reputation. Low points included the aggressive Breakfast TV interview with Indira Stewart, springing off a Cameron Slater and right-wing video guy's attempted hit job on Siouxsie Wiles, leading with her chin this week in Question Time in Parliament against Jacinda Ardern and finally her desperate fit-up of Bridges.
She served 499 days as leader - third-shortest in the National Party's history, after Muller and Sir Jim McLay. On the eve of her ousting, she launched plans for a digital plan for New Zealand, a portfolio area she held and a subject she told the National Party conference she saw as politically vital.
Her last public act as leader was the Bridges' demotion press statement, in the process claiming she would hold a press conference at 10am Thursday. But when the tide goes out on your power, even nominating the time and place of a media briefing is outside your grasp as well. The caucus meeting went more than three hours overtime, each minute underlining a loss of control from the chair.
Collins may well have taken Bridges down with her, throwing enough shade on him by the accusation of 'serious misconduct' by him to a female MP colleague to imperil any return leadership bid himself, but she could not save herself. In a little over 15 hours from launching her assault on Bridges, she had crushed and burned.
Back in the day, she encouraged Smith and Muller to call it a day, and announce their resignations from Parliament. In an orthodox worldview, she'd now do the same, get out and give her successor some clear air once the leadership vote is finalised next week. But Collins is arching her eyebrow and tweeting now that she is happy to remain the MP for Papakura.
