Any flickering hope among his backers that Cracksman might remain in the running for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Chantilly on Sunday was extinguished on Monday morning, when the easy winner of the Prix Niel, one of the main Arc trials, was missing from a list of 20 contenders after the first forfeit stage. Enable, his stable companion at John Gosden’s Newmarket yard, is currently missing too, but will be added to the field at Wednesday’s supplementary stage at a cost of €120,000 (£105,500).
The mood music around Cracksman’s participation this weekend had been so downbeat since his win in the Niel that the ante-post market had effectively discounted him already. As a result Enable, the winner of four Group Ones already this season, is steady in the betting at a top price of 10-11. Each-way opposition to the favourite is beginning to focus on Ulysses, the Eclipse and International Stakes winner, and Aidan O’Brien’s Order Of St George, who was third last year behind his stable companions Found, who has since retired, and Highland Reel, who is expected to be in the field again on Sunday.
Brametot, the French Derby winner, is the shortest-priced contender from a French stable, while there is still a real chance that O’Brien’s filly Winter, another four-time winner at the highest level this season, will join the fray alongside Capri, the St Leger winner, and Dshingis Secret, who took the Prix Foy.
It promises to be a strong, if not necessarily vintage, field, but even now, there will be many racing fans and backers still struggling to understand why a race-fit, progressive three-year-old who took the Niel by nearly four lengths has not made it past the first forfeit stage for the Arc. The bewilderment will only increase if Enable is beaten on Sunday, and above all if she runs below form, which is hardly unknown for a three-year-old filly at the end of a long, hard season.
Various reasons have been advanced for the decision, but none seems entirely convincing. Anthony Oppenheimer, Cracksman’s owner, suggested in the winner’s enclosure that the unavailability of Frankie Dettori – who will be aboard Enable – was a major concern, and that with his four-year-old career in mind, Cracksman might have too hard a race with a different rider aboard.
Dettori without question is one of the finest big-race jockeys of recent decades. That said, however, he has already missed out on two of Cracksman’s six career starts, and any one of a dozen leading riders could have taken the reins this weekend without Cracksman’s price easing by more than half a point, if that.
As for the “hard race” argument, there is no such thing as an easy Group One, and no reason to think that a rider other than Dettori would give Cracksman a harder race than necessary, not least if they have been instructed accordingly.
The Champion Stakes, meanwhile, has the potential to be more demanding than the Arc in a normal year, and this time around it is an extra week further into the autumn. Cracksman might run at Ascot, but it is just as likely that his season is over already.
Oppenheimer and Gosden are convinced that Cracksman will be a better four-year-old, and they may well be right. But he will be giving weight to a fresh crop of three-year-olds this time next year and would have had many months to recover from a run this weekend, when he would probably have started at around 5-1 to win.
Cracksman is quoted at 12-1 to win the 2018 Arc, which underlines how much can change in a year. He might have a better chance in 12 months’ time but it is not very likely and racing, like life, is often as much about timing as it is talent.
For many, the nagging suspicion remains that had Cracksman been stabled in any yard but the one housing the odds-on favourite, he would have been in the field at Chantilly on Sunday.
Tuesday’s tips, by Greg Wood
Beverley
2.10 Requinto Dawn, 2.45 Mount Kinabalu, 3.15 Relight My Fire (nb), 3.50 Edward Lewis (nap), 4.25 Lil Sophella 4.55 Kohinur, 5.25 Aqua Libre 5.55 Outlaw Torn
Lingfield Park
2.00 Exec Chef, 2.35 Gripper 3.05 Alternate Route, 3.40 Maygold, 4.15 Part Exchange, 4.45 Easy Code, 5.15 Mercers 5.45 My Brother Mike
Warwick
1.50 Blairs Cove, 2.25 Drumlang, 2.55 Premier Rose 3.30 Sonneofpresenting, 4.05 Miss Mash, 4.35 Alberobello
Chelmsford City
5.40 Tallulah’s Quest, 6.10 Frank’s Legacy, 6.40 Oswald, 7.10 Send Up, 7.40 Bumptious, 8.10 Narjes, 8.40 Absolutely Awesome, 9.10 Fever Few
