Talking Horses: Enable is new Arc favourite as rain prompts shake-up

Waldgeist relished the mud in beating Enable in last year’s Arc but the prospect of wet ground on Sunday made her favourite to go one place better this year. Photograph: Frank Sorge/racingfotos.com/Rex/Shutterstock

Enable is the new favourite for Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, when she will try to make history by becoming the first to win the famous race three times. A wholesale shake-up of the betting market took place on Monday as punters cottoned on to the likelihood of a soggy racing surface at Longchamp, which is not expected to suit the erstwhile favourite, Love.

While a sound surface prevailed at Longchamp for trials day just a fortnight ago, subsequent rain, including 19mm from Sunday into Monday, has led to going described officially as very soft and further heavy rain is forecast for Friday. The latest penetrometer reading for the Paris track is 4.0, close to the 4.1 on which last year’s Arc was staged.

The testing conditions that day are thought to have contributed to Enable’s defeat by Waldgeist, but punters have evidently decided she is more likely to relish the mud than Love. Having been available at 9-4, Enable was cut by all firms on Monday and now tops the market at 7-4 while Love has gone the other way, to 11-4.

WALDGEIST upsets ENABLE to win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. 🥇

📹 @AtTheRaces pic.twitter.com/UPPaiip3HI

— World Horse Racing (@WHR) October 6, 2019

Enterprising backers have been casting about for alternatives to the two who have dominated betting on the Arc for months. Stradivarius, outpaced on good ground on trials day but an impressive Gold Cup winner on soft in the summer, crashed down to 7-1 after being twice those odds on Sunday, while In Swoop is a general 16-1 shot from 25-1.

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Some riders do not yet know whether they can compete in France this weekend. Talks continue between the British Horseracing Authority and Public Health England, which could free jockeys from the need to self-isolate on their return, providing they follow a testing regime and adhere to separation protocols for the following week.

Jockeys like Andrea Atzeni and Oisin Murphy might therefore be able to ride in France this weekend and still be able to take part in Future Champions Day the next Saturday. Conceivably, Atzeni could recover the mount on Stradivarius, for whom Olivier Peslier is currently booked. Murphy, meanwhile, might be offered an Arc mount by Aidan O’Brien.

The British challenge for the Arc was reduced on Tuesday morning when Hughie Morrison decided against sending Telecaster, last seen winning the Grand Prix de Deauville. “We were not 100% happy with him this morning, so we have made the decision not to run this weekend,” the Berkshire trainer said. “Obviously it’s very disappointing for all concerned.”

Telecaster had started the week as a 66-1 shot but shortened to 20-1 with news of softening conditions.

Tuesday’s best bets

It was only a three-runner affair here last month in which The Vollan (3.25) made his chasing debut but his pedigree suggested it would be the job for him and I liked the way he took to the larger obstacles. At least, that is, as far as the third-last, where he and Paul O’Brien went their separate ways.

Sam Twiston-Davies takes over for a hotter contest and the 8-1 on offer makes plenty of appeal. Charlie Longsdon’s youngster looks ahead of his rating in this sphere. Manofthemountain has ones next to his name but has paid for them with a higher rating.

Twiston-Davies could have a productive hour at the end of that card, as Tango Echo Charlie (3.55) has been supported down to 11-2 for his handicap debut. He showed promise in his first three starts for Dr Richard Newland, now very much in form.

Ayr 
12.30 Cruyff Turn 1.00 Whatzupwithme 1.30 Stroxx 2.05 Kodimoor 2.40 Highfield Princess 3.15 Flying Pursuit 3.50 Abbotside 4.25 Dark Heart

Bangor 
12.40 The Wolf 1.10 The Butcher Said 1.40 Teqany 2.15 Lock's Corner 2.50 Polish 3.25 The Vollan (nap) 3.55 Tango Echo Charlie

Sedgefield 
1.50 Magna Moralia 2.25 Fortunate Fred (nb) 3.00 Begoodtoyourself 3.35 Lively Citizen 4.10 Barman 4.45 To Fly Free 5.15 The Navigator 5.45 Socialist Agenda

Wolverhampton 
4.05 Mohawk King 4.40 Lauded 5.10 Gypsy Boy 5.40 Hexagon 6.10 Shining Aitch 6.40 Lover's Moon 7.10 Tuscan Oasis 7.40 Blessed To Impress 8.10 Kodikova

At Sedgefield, Fortunate Fred (2.25) is another who needs to be forgiven for having a letter next to his name instead of a number, but the market has woken up to his chance and he is favourite. For the more adventurous, 14-1 is available about Begoodtoyourself (3.00), a winning pointer going straight into handicap chases after three novice hurdles. His low-profile yard were unlucky not to get a big-priced winner the other day when Dorette came down at the last at Uttoxeter.