The Future Fund LLC‘s Gary Black renewed his skepticism toward Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) early Wednesday after the stock’s recent pullback and said the company’s valuation and upcoming share unlocks leave little room for upside.
Black Says Valuation Still Doesn’t Add Up
“It’s already a megacap ($1.8T market cap) so upside is limited,” Black said in a post on X, adding that SpaceX is not expected to turn profitable until 2027 despite trading at about 47 times projected 2026 enterprise value-to-revenue and 110 times value-to-EBITDA.
Black shared a Bloomberg News report that said SpaceX shares had fallen to within $1 of their $135 IPO price after giving up roughly one-third of their post-listing gains.
SpaceX is expected to unlock about 20% of its eligible pre-IPO shares after second-quarter earnings next month, with roughly 44% becoming eligible for sale by early September.
Black said the staggered releases would increase the tradable float by about 900%, adding that “valuation has to matter at some point.”
After reaching a record high of $225.64 on June 16, the company’s stock has now retreated roughly 40%.
Still not sure what people see in $SPCX as an investment. It’s already a megacap ($1.8T market cap) so upside is limited. It won’t generate profits until 2027. It trades at 2026 EV/Rev of 47x ( $TSLA 14x), and 2026 EV/EBITDA of 110x ( $TSLA 97x). I get the TAM story once other… pic.twitter.com/QQO8bn0vVh
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) July 15, 2026
Veteran market strategist George Noble, a former Peter Lynch protégé, said the lockup schedule, and not the company’s valuation, is the biggest near-term risk for the stock.
Chamath Makes the Bull Case
Speaking on CNBC, venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya called SpaceX “an incredible company,” having backed the business since its early years and continuing to believe in Elon Musk‘s long-term vision.
"I think it’s an incredible company," says @chamath of $SPCX. "I really believe in Elon." https://t.co/LiK7oIIGYr pic.twitter.com/1BcXDhSyNu
— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) July 14, 2026
Palihapitiya said investors may be underestimating the strategic benefits of potentially combining SpaceX and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) under a single capital structure, as he believes a unified balance sheet could make it easier to fund Musk’s broader portfolio of businesses.
Last week, JPMorgan said SpaceX’s public listing could make a potential acquisition of Tesla easier because the company can use its stock as currency.
Palihapitiya expects SpaceX to build “an enormous business” in the domestic cellular market before many of the company’s other revenue streams begin to materialize.
Black Still Sees Long-Term Opportunity
Black acknowledged SpaceX’s long-term opportunity, particularly as more airlines follow Frontier Group Holdings Inc‘s (NASDAQ:ULCC) Frontier Airlines in adopting Starlink as their standard in-flight Wi-Fi offering.
Frontier Airlines announced Tuesday that it plans to offer SpaceX’s Starlink as its standard in-flight Wi-Fi service, with deployment set to begin in early 2027.
Price Action: Shares of SpaceX fell 2.20% on Tuesday at $136.08, while it climbed back 1.17% in early pre-market trading on Wednesday.
Benzinga edge rankings indicate SPCX has a negative price trend across the short, medium and long term.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
