One month after its historic June 12 IPO, Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) is facing a reality check. Shares have plummeted 35.60% from their all-time high of $225.64 to Friday’s close of $145.30, exposing a widening divide between analysts who view the company as a transformative industrial power and those who fear it is becoming a speculative "meme stock."
The Valuation Chasm
Wall Street is sharply divided over SpaceX’s valuation and long-term outlook. On one side, Raymond James initiated coverage with a “Strong Buy” and an $800 price target, framing SpaceX as "the defining industrial infrastructure company of the 21st century."
Conversely, Morgan Stanley analysts have highlighted a massive $672 billion "funding risk," forecasting no free cash flow before 2035. Short-seller Jim Chanos ridiculed the bank’s internal contradiction, calling the disclosure of that massive capital need—while still issuing a buy recommendation—”truly glorious.”
I know we are only halfway through the year, but I feel it will be hard to top this comment from one of the obligatory buy recommendations on $SPCX issued by one of the underwriters this week. It is truly glorious. pic.twitter.com/TK3f8woHmb
— James Chanos (@RealJimChanos) July 8, 2026
Read Also: Musk’s Net Worth Down $407 Billion From Trillion-Plus High as SpaceX Stock Dives
Meme Stock Sentiment vs. AI Ambition
The rapid price erosion has left recent retail investors "definitely underwater." Keith Snyder, an analyst at CFRA, told the BBC that the stock "started to look a lot like a meme stock," where retail enthusiasm momentarily outpaced business fundamentals.
However, the bull case remains tethered to AI. Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX could facilitate 5,288 Starship AI missions by 2031, turning the company into a critical node for global computing infrastructure. Musk has reinforced this narrative, using share volatility to acquire AI startup Cursor in a $60 billion stock-based deal.
Goldman Sachs expects $SPCX Starship AI missions to reach 5,288 by 2031 with each carrying 30–50 satellites powered by one GB300-equivalent rack apiece.
— Shay Boloor (@StockSavvyShay) July 12, 2026
That could mean millions of accelerators from $NVDA, fabricated by $TSM with $MU & $SKHY supplying the HBM behind each rack. pic.twitter.com/9jR9iN23mx
The August Cliff
The road ahead remains treacherous. Gary Black warns that SpaceX shares could face further downward pressure in early August as 20% of locked shares become available for public trading. Investors are now pivoting their focus toward the company’s first public earnings report.
As much as I love $TSLA the company, it’s difficult to support the valuation (2026 P/E 209x vs +35% long-term EPS growth, 6x PEG), which remains excessive vs every other Mag 8 name (avg 2x PEG). Most TSLA promoters on X choose to ignore valuation in any discussion of $TSLA as… pic.twitter.com/5ggQ2zi9qo
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) July 13, 2026
Samuel Kerr of Mergermarket also told the BBC that "If SpaceX can do all the things it says it will do, yes, investors are sitting on the most valuable company ever. But it’s got a lot of work to do to get there."
How Has SPCX Performed Since Its Listing?
Listed on June 12, 2026, SPCX shares were down 3.13% since their debut on the bourses. Despite its inclusion last week in the Nasdaq 100 index, the stock had declined by 10.31% over the last five sessions.
It closed 4.51% lower at $145.30 per share on Friday, and it was down 1.12% in overnight trading. Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that SPCX maintains a weak price trend in the short, medium, and long terms.
Read Also: Congressman Buys SpaceX Stock After IPO: Trade Could Be Down 23% Already
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
