Elon Musk says Tesla Inc's (NASDAQ:TSLA) future isn't just electric—it's humanoid. But if investors are banking on Optimus to drive Tesla's next trillion-dollar leap, they might want to take a closer look at what's (not) happening behind closed doors.
- Tesla’s stock has been very volatile, see here.
Tesla's Sky-High Vision Meets Factory Floor Friction
Musk has floated an eye-watering $25-$30 trillion valuation target, claiming Optimus robots could one day eclipse the EV business.
But as The Information reported, Tesla has built only hundreds of robots, far short of Musk's promised 5,000 by year-end. And here's the kicker: many of those units are reportedly sitting idle, lacking working hands. Literally.
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What's Behind The Curtain?
Tesla isn't just running behind schedule—it's keeping things unusually quiet. The Optimus program is so secretive that it doesn't even appear on Tesla's organizational chart. Employees need special clearances just to access production areas. For a company that's never been shy about flaunting tech milestones, this level of secrecy feels less like product discipline and more like damage control.
It’s a familiar pattern. Bold proclamations, aggressive targets, and then a silent slide into reality. The Model 3, the Cybertruck, Full Self-Driving—all have their own chapters in Musk's Big Book of Missed Timelines. Optimus is shaping up to be the latest entry.
When Hype Outpaces Hardware
The danger isn't that Tesla won't eventually build a humanoid robot—it's that Wall Street might already be pricing in an AI-driven windfall that's still years (or decades) away. Cathie Wood, whose valuation Musk himself endorses, has a $2,600 price target for Tesla stock by 2029. This implies a company market cap of around $8.5 trillion by 2029, which is still four years away. For Tesla, which is currently valued at about $1.03 trillion in the market, reaching $30 trillion is definitely way down the timeline.
And with AI hype driving market sentiment, even a minor crack in the narrative could jolt Tesla's stock and projected valuation above.
Investors who bought the sizzle may soon be forced to evaluate the steak—or lack thereof. For now, the only thing Optimus seems to be producing at scale is speculation.
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