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The Street
The Street
Luc Olinga

Elon Musk Makes a Dire Prediction About Italy

This situation worries him and has become a kind of obsession, one might say. He talks about it regularly, raising warnings in the hope that someone will take notice. But so far, his cries of despair have gone unanswered. 

For several months, Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla (TSLA) and owner of Twitter, has been using his influence to draw the world's attention to the rapid decline of the population in Italy. Last month, for example, he took advantage of a message from cybersecurity researcher Andrea Stroppa to reaffirm that the problem was becoming very serious.

'Very Concerning'

"New official data: Italy's population continues to collapse," Stroppa posted on March 21. "The population declined by 0.3% or 179,000 units over the previous year, according to the national statistics institute. The birth rate in 2022 fell by 1.9%."

Musk, who has since been warning about the decline in birth rates in major countries, did not hesitate to comment and sounded the alarm.

"Very concerning," the billionaire said.

Italy is facing two issues, according to demographic experts and official data. The number of elderly people is rapidly increasing while the birth rate has slumped.

The country is therefore forced to manage a boom in the aging population. These factors make Italy the western country with the fastest population decline.

The number of births in Italy fell in 2020 to its lowest level since the country's unification in 1861, according to Istat, the Italian National Institute of Statistics. This was the the 12th consecutive year of decline.

Births stood at 404,892, or 15,192 fewer than in 2019. The number of deaths rose to 746,146 in 2020 and the population decreased to 59.3 million.

The decline continued in 2021, according to data from January to September, with 12,500 fewer births over the period compared to the first nine months of 2020. The average number of children per woman residing in Italy was 1.24 in 2020, one of the lowest fertility rates in the world.

'Italy Is Disappearing'

Musk seems to think a point of no return has been reached and just made it known by making a grim prediction about Italy. As he often does, he took advantage of a message from Stroppa, who, like him, is very worried about the decline of the Italian population.

"New: 'The birth rate in Italy is at an all-time low and mortality remains high, the national statistics institute Istat said on Friday'," Stroppa tweeted on April 7. "The situation is getting worse. We’re going full speed toward the decline and potential halving of the Italian population."

"Italy is disappearing!" Musk commented.

"I hope President @GiorgiaMeloni will work on this important issue by supporting strategies that can favor the birth rate," Stroppa responded.

Besides Italy, Musk estimates that the populations of Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong are declining at worrying rates. 

The Techno King, as he is known at Tesla, believes that strong incentives must be given to families to encourage young people to have children. He also bucks the conventional wisdom that it is the cost of living that discourages some people from having children.

"Contrary to what many think, the richer someone is, the fewer kids they have," the serial entrepreneur argued last May. "I am a rare exception. Most people I know have zero or one kid."

Musk, 51, who is currently single, has 10 children from three different mothers. The last child, a girl, was born in December 2021.

For him, to solve the collapse of the population, which he describes as "the biggest threat to civilization," we must start by viewing having children in a positive way.

"We just need to celebrate having kids," he has said.

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