A week ago, the Panthers lost 33-10 to Miami, showcasing yet another lackluster performance where Carolina struggled to find any offensive consistency or rhythm. After the game, coach Matt Rhule said would take the bye week to reassess his staff.
On Sunday, offensive coordinator Joe Brady was fired — signaling a massive change to the Panthers offense with five weeks remaining. Senior offensive assistant Jeff Nixon will fill in as an interim offensive coordinator and will likely call plays.
Rhule and Brady have not been on the same page for most of the season. After a 3-0 start, Carolina struggled to establish an identity behind a suspect offensive line and inconsistent quarterback play. Rhule adamantly wanted to run more, calling for around 30 rushes per game. Carolina accomplished that only three times since Week 3.
Brady never struck a play-calling balance. Too often his schemes were too vanilla, lacking the necessary variance to keep NFL defenses guessing. Remember, after the Eagles game receiver Robby Anderson complained the Panthers were too repetitive in their route concepts. That was a sign of problems to come.
Brady knows how to hunt mismatches. When given the best athletes (like at LSU), he puts elite talent in positions to exploit lesser defenders. That works in college football. But in the NFL it’s on coordinators to create advantageous situations for their skill players rather than simply asking them to repeatedly win matchups.
He created some explosive moments. Anderson’s 57-yard touchdown in Week 1 popped and then never happened again. In Week 11, both of Newton’s touchdown passes were well-designed. The first to D.J. Moore came via a crafty read-pass option. Later, Newton hit Christian McCaffrey on a 27-yard running back seam route.
However, those were flash moments. Brady’s offense wasn’t sustainable because he didn’t evolve quickly enough and NFL defensive coordinators caught up.
The Panthers’ offense ranks 29th in Football Outsiders DVOA metric, which measures efficiency against league averages. Only the Lions, Falcons and Texans are worse. Over the past four games, they have scored seven touchdowns. Carolina averages just 19.7 points per game, are 28th in yards (300.8) and 22nd in red-zone touchdown percentage.
If an offense isn’t gaining yards between the 20s, scoring red-zone touchdowns or generating points then something must change. Rhule pulled the plug on his 18-month Brady experiment for all those reasons.
Brady wasn’t given all he could to succeed. McCaffrey played just seven games. The offensive line is among the worst in the league, and the Panthers have started three different quarterbacks. However, changes were necessary after Cam Newton was benched in the fourth quarter against Miami after posting career-lows in quarterback rating and completion percentage. Backup P.J. Walker took several sacks and threw an interception in relief. Showing it didn’t matter who played quarterback, Carolina’s offense was systematically broken.
Life changes quickly in the NFL. Brady went from an up-and-coming coordinator — who took five head coaching interviews this past offseason — to fired. Someone had to be held accountable for the Panthers’ shortcomings.
With Brady out, Nixon will coordinate the offense with help of the remaining staff. Do not expect any drastic changes. There is not enough time to really install anything new. In fact, Newton spent the bye week learning more of the offense, which should help Carolina play faster and more complete despite more changes around him.
Nixon brings familiarity to Rhule and ultimately more control. If Rhule wants to run the ball 30 times then that is exactly what will happen. Nixon called plays for Rhule at Baylor from 2017-19.
In victories against Atlanta and Arizona, Carolina rushed the ball a combined 84 times for nearly 370 yards. Playing behind a top-five defense, that is the formula Rhule wants to implement. Nixon should have Newton carry the ball more. Without McCaffrey, rookie Chuba Hubbard slides back in as the feature back.
With five games to prove himself, Nixon can make the most of his play-calling audition by sparking the passing game, too. Carolina sits near the bottom of the league in explosive plays and yards per attempt. Anderson and Moore can benefit from this change if Nixon can showcase better variance in his calls and take advantage of downfield opportunities.
As a running backs coach, Nixon will dedicate Carolina to the ground game. But the Panthers must find an aerial attack to complement a run-heavy scheme or their results won’t differ much. It’s on Nixon to reestablish what Brady couldn’t. If he cannot then even more changes are coming.
