CHARLOTTE, N.C. — The bye week is a time of self-reflection and introspection. Teams usually delegate resources to internal scouting, searching for answers that explain their on-field strengths and weaknesses.
The Carolina Panthers (5-7) have plenty of the latter entering their Week 13 bye. They rank 29th in overall offensive DVOA, 31st in passing and 21st in rushing. Defensively, they dropped outside the top five in DVOA and are trending in the wrong direction. (DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.)
The Panthers have allowed 60 points over the past two weeks in losses to Washington and Miami. Both games held important playoff implications as Washington currently holds the final wild-card spot. Carolina has just a 6% chance of making the playoffs according to FiveThirtyEight.
How did the Panthers get here? That is a question Carolina should attack this week. It’s a challenging proposition that coach Matt Rhule and general manager Scott Fitterer must answer realistically.
During the offseason, rookie and free agent evaluations dominate most football conversations. There is such a hyper focus on what new players can be brought in and how those external additions can improve a team’s situation.
However, more challenging and equally important is accurate internal scouting. A team cannot adequately forecast its range outcomes until it fully understands its own roster.
Confirmation biases and wishful thinking should be a decision maker’s sworn enemy. Instead, such practices are to blame for the Panthers’ uncomfortable situation. Losers of seven of their last nine, they are heading closer toward a top-10 pick than a playoff berth. Trading for quarterback Sam Darnold and cornerback C.J. Henderson cost them all but one top-100 selection in 2022.
They weren’t a Stephon Gilmore away from breaking their three-year playoff drought, either. Let’s unpack how the Panthers miscalculated their situation and project where they can go from here.
The Panthers’ 3-0 start feels like it happened another season ago.
Venture back to those days and remember the energy surrounding Carolina. They led the NFC South entering Week 4 and made two splash trades over two weeks, signaling they were ready to win. Fitterer acquired Henderson and a fifth-round pick from Jacksonville for tight end Dan Arnold and a third-round pick.
Fitterer took an opportunity to fill a hole left by cornerback Jaycee Horn — who broke his right foot — while also building toward the future as Henderson was the No. 9 pick in the 2020 draft.
Then Gilmore, a former defensive player of the year, became available. Fitterer and Rhule pounced on another opportunity to land a talented defensive back. By trading a 2023 sixth-round pick to the Patriots and agreeing to pay his remaining $5.8 million contract, the Panthers told their locker room, fan base and the rest of the league they believed they were a playoff contender.
“This is the way Scott’s wired, and I don’t want to sit around and wait to win,” Rhule said after the Gilmore trade. “We have a good team right now and we’re trying to become a great team.”
Fitterer added, “C.J. is the future. Stephon is to win now.”
Panthers players agreed. Cornerback Donte Jackson said, “they’re confident we can win right now.” Defensive tackle DaQuan Jones said he thinks everyone in the building believes that’s the case.
Quarterback Sam Darnold bought in, too. “We’re ready to win now,” he said. “I think that’s the biggest thing. We’re all aware, we can win games, and we’re capable of doing that. So that’s really the message it sends.”
Gilmore wasn’t eligible to play until Week 7 because he started the season on the PUP list with an injured quadriceps. He made his Carolina debut in Week 8, helping smother Atlanta, 19-13.
But in between acquiring Gilmore and his first start, the Panthers lost three straight games. Minor concerns during their first three victories started showing as long-term problems. Carolina struggled to stop the run or protect the quarterback, trends that persist.
Darnold injured his shoulder in Week 9, landing him on injured reserve and Cam Newton returned to save a season in disarray. The Panthers paid him $4.5 million, plus $187,500 per game activation. Assuming Newton stays healthy and Carolina doesn’t make the playoffs, he’ll make $6 million for eight games.
The Panthers weren’t a win-now team. Instead, they were covering up their inefficiencies with a soft schedule. The Jets and Texans will each have top-five picks; New Orleans is having a down year and had seven starters missing that week; Atlanta is rebuilding and the Cardinals played Carolina without Pro Bowlers Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins.
What’s next?
Carolina exemplifies the costly ramifications of compounding a problem. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater wasn’t enough, so Fitterer and Rhule acquired Darnold for three draft picks — a 2021 sixth-round selection, and a second and fourth-rounder in 2022.
Those mid-round picks would help bolster either their defensive or offensive lines this offseason, but they were wasted. It’s unclear whether Darnold will be back in Charlotte next season. The Panthers owe him $18 million for picking up his 2022 fifth-year option in May.
Misjudging their talent has pinned the Panthers into a corner. It started with Bridgewater, turned them to Darnold and back to Newton. While they couldn’t figure out their quarterback, wide receiver Robby Anderson signed a two-year, $29.5 million contract, including a $11.5 million signing bonus.
Anderson is on pace for career lows in receptions and receiving yards. His Pro Football Focus grade of 54 ranks 192nd among 200 qualified receivers. Internally, it sounds like Anderson’s seismic production drop stems more from the Panthers’ quarterback and offensive line issues than his own regression. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady isn’t helping, either, with simplistic schemes and unimaginative offense.
There aren’t many valid excuses for how the Panthers arrived at this stagnant place. Sure, they are playing without All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey, who was placed on injured reserve for a second time following an ankle injury he suffered last week. But star running backs Dalvin Cook (Vikings), Nick Chubb (Browns), Aaron Jones (Packers), Derrick Henry (Titans), Alvin Kamara (Saints) have all missed extended time and their respective offenses aren’t crumbling.
Unless the Panthers win at least four of their next five games, their season is likely over. The offseason brings even more questions. Lucrative extensions await defensive end Brian Burns and receiver DJ Moore. Edge rusher Haason Reddick will earn a massive payday from either Carolina or elsewhere. At cornerback, Jackson and Gilmore will both be looking for new deals.
Once again, quarterback remains a mystery. The Panthers could bring Newton back or finally select one in the first round.
From quarterback to an offensive line rebuild and defensive free agents, the Panthers have plenty to figure out. Hopefully, their coaches are using the bye week to reflect and solve their self-inflicted issues.
Panthers 2022 NFL draft picks
— First round (1)
— Fourth round (1)
— Fifth round (2)
— Sixth round (2)
— Seventh round (1)
