Dennis Kimetto, the world marathon record holder, believes he is in similar shape to when he gatecrashed the history books in Berlin two years ago. Eliud Kipchoge, the world No1 and reigning London champion, insists he is better than ever. And the course record holder Wilson Kipsang looks you straight in the eye when he promises he is also back on form.
They might all be telling the truth, too. Which means that this year’s men’s London Marathon could be every bit as enthralling as last year’s epic when these three Kenyans slogged it out so magnificently and dramatically before Kipchoge kicked clear of Kipsang on the Mall to win in 2hr 4min 42sec.
Usually in London Marathon week the dozens of unofficial conversations with coaches, agents and former athletes offer a strong indication of who is on form, and who is showing up for the appearance money. Not this year. Not only are all the athletes promising they are in tip-top shape, which is nothing new, but those sentiments are being echoed by those usually in the know.
Perhaps we should not be surprised. This year’s race is doubling up as an unofficial Kenyan Olympic trial, while the Ethiopian selectors will also be keeping a close eye on a number of their athletes, including the world 5,000m and 10,000m record holder, Kenenisa Bekele, who ran 2:05.15 on his debut in Paris two years ago but has been injured for the most part since.
The appearance of Bekele and the Eritrean Ghirmay Ghebreslassie, the shock winner of the 2015 world championships in Beijing, will provide a number of lively wildcards but the men’s race should again come down to a battle between the Kenyans.
Kipchoge, who has won five of his six marathons and finished second in the other, strongly believes he is the man to beat. “The training is faster this year,” he says. “I am finishing workouts quickly, have had no injuries, so I think I’ll do a fast time.”
He dismisses the pressure of being the hunted, not the hunter. “The pressure is really high but I will cope with it. I’m not worried at all.”
Kipsang chuckles when he describes what awaits him. “This is the toughest I’ve ever known – it will be a very tough battle,” he says. But then in his next breath he says he is ready to run two hours and four minutes, a time he thinks will be needed to win. “I think I’m better this year. Training has gone better and I have more experience for the marathon.”
Kimetto also promises that he is ready to join battle, but it may be that Stanley Biwott, who was fourth in 2015 and second in 2014, provides the strongest fly in Kipchoge’s ointment. The 30-year-old won his first marathon major title in New York last autumn, and insists he is much stronger after a change of coach. “This time I have trained very well,” he tells the Observer. “I’ve had no injuries doing the full programme for the marathon. I’m in good shape, better than last year. I’m doing more miles and more speed, and am often running 30km a day. I am ready.”
Kenya’s Fabulous Four will be hoping to remind people about the country’s fabulous talent after a sticky few months, in which the national governing body and the government has been accused of dragging their heels in funding effective anti-doping programmes and even faced suggestions that their athletes could miss the Rio Olympics. That threat seems to have receded, however, after Kenya’s president signed a bill into law on Friday that allows those caught doping or supplying drugs to be imprisoned or fined.
The women’s race is likely to come down to whether the two-times winner Mary Keitany is in peak form. She is favoured to gain revenge over the Ethiopian Tigist Tufa, who sprang a surprise when winning last year’s race, and Tufa’s compatriot Mare Dibaba, who took the world title in Beijing.
Meanwhile the London Marathon race director, Hugh Brasher, has revealed that any athlete who wins more than $50,000 will be paid over a five-year period to deter people cheating and taking drugs. Brasher cited the case of the Russian Liliya Shobukhova, who was found guilty in 2014 of doping on the basis of abnormalities in her athlete biological passport, as providing the impetus for change. The 2010 winner – until her results were annulled – had in effect “defrauded the athletes who came second, third and fourth”.
Shobukhova is rumoured to have won more than $2m in appearance and prize money and Brasher said: “We are currently taking her to court in order to reclaim that money. But if the money had been held in an escrow account we wouldn’t have to be going after her for so much money. That money could be held.
“This is the sport doing what it can to deter the odd rotten apple that decides cheating is the course to go, which it isn’t.”
