Labour's newcomer Emily Thornberry held back Bridget Fox's orange tide in 2005, by the skin-of-teeth margin of 484 votes. A big swing against her followed the Lib Dems taking Islington Council in 2002. Every ward within the Islington South and Finsbury constituency went the Lib Dems's way that year. It contains the posh parts of the borough, including where Boris Johnson lives. The political centre has often exerted a pull there. I remember back in the early 1980s, when Upper Street was all lefty book shops, greasy spoons and anti-Poll Tax demonstrations, smart Canonbury Square being festooned with SDP posters. And didn't Tony Blair used to live somewhere round there? In the same street as Thornberry, as it happens.
The obvious question this year is whether Fox can topple Thornberry at the second attempt. At first glance she looks a cert, but Labour made a comeback on the Council in 2006, taking nearly half the seats. And here's a view from a local Labour member who kindly got in touch last week:
The Lib Dems are at serious risk of losing the council to Labour. At the last council election, the Labour vote in Bunhill (old Finsbury) was split by the Independent Working Class Association, and Lib Dem councillors got in. If Labour take Bunhill, which is possible as the IWCA don't seem to be mobilising, they will probably take the Council, and those local politics will potentially save Emily's seat for her. The Cameron effect might also mean that the Conservatives come 2nd in Islington south as the Lib Dems lose votes. All conjecture, but it could be interesting in what is an ever divided and ever changing constituency.
Bridget Fox, of course, takes a different view. She's blogging and tweeting like no one's business, and appealing directly to the constituency's significant Tory vote to make a tactical switch. The Tory candidate, by the way, is Evening Standard leader writer Antonia Cox, who I've reported on before. And don't forget James Humphries who's again standing for the Greens. He got 1,471 votes last time. The result in this seat could hinge on numbers like that.
Any other readers who think they know which way the electoral wind is blowing in this piece of territory, please don't hesitate to comment or email. I'd love to hear from you.
