In this post, last Friday, I asked you to predict the outcome of the election, offering you the chance of winning a selection of unthinkably marvellous Guardian merchandise including a t-shirt, a bag, and a selection of books. We had hundreds of answers, and I've spent far too much of this morning going through them. I'm not going to distribute any prizes until we're certain Missouri has gone to McCain -- North Carolina has been called for Obama -- but that's looking pretty clear at this point, enabling me to announce the winners of our
I expect all sorts of special pleading, complaints, and similar unruly nonsense, so let me remind you of the rules: I asked for the popular vote percentage split, to the nearest whole number, between Obama and McCain, noting that this probably wouldn't add up to 100% because of third-party votes; I also asked for the winner's electoral college total as a tiebreaker. And I added that I could behave as capriciously as I chose. To complicate matters, it now seems clear that we're heading for a popular vote for Obama teetering between 52% and 53%, dependent on the very last votes (or perhaps even on the networks' methods of rounding, etc, for all I know). CNN currently has 53%-46%, as does RealClearPolitics, but Fox has 52%-46% [corrected: I initially wrote "52%-56%"] and the BBC goes for 52.5%. Rather than get embroiled in this, I'm going to award prizes, firstly, to the three posters who predicted 53%-46% and the correct number of electoral votes, which was 364: those winners are commentNinja, heyhamsnack and southerly. Nobody who opted for 52%-46% got the EV total correct, but the two posters tied for closest position, both predicting 367 EVs, were Benjine and batemon, hence prizes for you, too. If you wouldn't mind emailing me your postal address, Guardian things will be on their way to you in the fullness of time. (Please mention your username in your email. If you can email from the address you used to register for comments, that'll make things easier.)
There were no prizes for getting the EV total exactly right if you were off on the popular vote -- but honorable mentions, nonetheless, for those who did that: Barnaby87, Antichthon, Oliver23, NBonparte, Tombee, MuddyOne, technopeasant, dart2k, and BaronVonH.
You may now begin complaining, but please note, I currently have my fingers in my ears and am singing "la la la la" in a loud voice.
Thanks for playing -- what a week it's been.
UPDATE: So it was 365 EVs, actually, once Nebraska sorted itself out. Nobody's prediction was closer than 364, though, so the winners are unchanged.
