Good morning and welcome, finally, to the last campaign briefing. But hold those sighs because we’re back tomorrow with the polling day briefing. Then the results briefing, and then the let’s-make-a-government live blog.
The big picture
Party leaders are crisscrossing the country, drumming up last-minute votes and defying any accusations of complacency or chillaxing. Because they are normal folk who eat takeaway chicken and commission battle buses to take them from Land’s End to John O’Groats.
Latest polling has Labour and the Conservatives pretty much tied. A Populus poll for the Financial Times had them both on 33%.
Here’s the Guardian’s poll of polls:
David Cameron has been campaigning overnight, warning nightshift workers and insomniacs that Ed Miliband is a “very dangerous” person who is trying to use a “con trick” to force his way into No 10.
Miliband, one has to hope, has grabbed something approaching sleep ahead of speeches in four locations on Wednesday.
Will any actual news break through the bustle and bluster today? Because there is news:
- The Guardian leads this morning with a list of “very, highly or extremely controversial” potential cuts to benefits drawn up by civil servants in response to warnings that the next government would struggle to keep welfare spending below a legal cap of about £120bn a year. The cuts proposed by officials at the Department for Work and Pensions include abolishing statutory maternity pay and barring under-25s from claiming incapacity benefit or housing benefit. Money could also be raised by increasing the bedroom tax.
- A Ukip candidate has been suspended for threatening to “put a bullet in” his Tory rival.
- Sir John Major has said the Tory party’s relationship with ethnic minority voters is “not remotely goodish”.
- Nick Clegg has drawn another red line, insisting that the Lib Dems wouldn’t be part of a government that advocated leaving the EU. On Tuesday Clegg waggled the threat of a second election in front of the electorate, warning:
The last thing Britain needs is a second election before Christmas. But that is exactly what will happen if Ed Miliband and David Cameron put their own political interest ahead of the national interest.
- In the final week of the campaign, the Tories received £1.36m in donations. Labour got £131,242.
- You can read Jamie Grierson’s summary of Tuesday’s campaign news here.
Diary
No stop will be left unpulled-out today. No rest will be had. Much caffeine will be inhaled. And that’s just your election briefers. Ho ho.
As for the rest of them:
- David Cameron is interviewed on the Today programme at 8.10am and later heads to Carlisle.
- Ed Miliband is in Yorkshire and Lancashire, before winding up at a rally in Leeds this evening.
- Nick Clegg continues his Lib Dem battle bus dash from Land’s End to John O’Groats: today he reaches Kendal, Glasgow and Inverness, before hitting his final destination around 8pm.
- Nigel Farage is canvassing in Ramsgate, Kent. Deputy Ukip leader Paul Nuttall is on the Today programme at 7.10am.
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Nicola Sturgeon is in Edinburgh this morning, ahead of first minister’s questions at Holyrood.
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Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, makes a speech in Edinburgh at 9.45am.
- At 9am, the Scottish Green party calls for the return of railways to public ownership at Waverley Station, Edinburgh.
- Natalie Bennett, the Green party leader, will give a speech in Bristol.
- Leanne Wood, the Plaid Cymru leader, is in Carmarthen.
- Boris Johnson is on LBC radio at 9.30am.
- Lord (Gus) O’Donnell, the former cabinet secretary who oversaw coalition negotiations last time around, also pops up on the Today programme, at 7.30am.
The big issue
Today, everyone would like to tell you how (not) to vote. David Cameron, writing in the Times, says:
A vote for Ukip is a vote for Ed Miliband. A vote for the Liberal Democrats is a vote for Ed Miliband.
Oh, and a vote for the SNP is a vote for Ed Miliband.
Theresa May is writing in the Express, saying that “a vote for any other party” is a vote for Ed Miliband. Essentially, everything apart from a Conservative vote is a vote for Ed Miliband. OK?
But hold on. The Express has a gasp-inducing exclusive that Nigel Farage thinks you really rather ought to vote for Ukip:
There might be a bit more surprise to be mustered in the news that Boris Johnson thinks that “moderate, sensible, one-nation, middle-of-the-road Blairite Guardian reader[s]” should cast their votes in the Tory box.
So what is the undecided voter to do? You could try the Guardian’s guide to what the parties are offering you. You could read their manifestos (quickly). Or you could just see what the media would like you to do. Let’s do that:
tl;dr: newspaper endorsements in a word(ish)
Guardian Tories tawdry; Labour hope; Lib Dems/Greens/SNP: not the answer. Verdict: Labour.
Telegraph Tories stability; Labour chaos; Greens/SNP/Lib Dems/Plaid Cymru quarrelsome. Verdict: Conservative.
Times Tories sensible; Lib Dems constructive; Labour wilfully blind.Verdict: Conservative-Lib Dem coalition.
Daily Mail Tories renewed determination; Labour preposterous; SNP unthinkable. Verdict: Conservative.
Independent Tories some success; Lib Dems force for progress; Labour unready; Greens disappointment; SNP wrecking ball. Verdict: Conservative-Lib Dem coalition.
Daily Express Tories success; Labour socialist; Lib Dems disaster; Ukip magnificent. Verdict: Ukip.
The Sun Tories prosperity and happiness; Labour socialist lunacy; SNP wreckers. Verdict: Conservative.
Scottish Sun Tories confusion and fear; Labour old-school dinosaurs; SNP phenomenon. Verdict: SNP.
Herald Verdict: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Scotland on Sunday SNP reinvigorated; Tories unsubtle and reductive; Lib Dems in play; Labour proven record. Verdict: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Observer Tories wrong-headed; SNP patchy; Greens effective; Labour courageous. Verdict: Labour.
Sunday Telegraph Tories excellent; Ukip beacon; Labour disingenuous. Verdict: Conservative.
Sunday Times Labour disaster; Lib Dems deserve to survive; Tories best chance. Verdict: Conservative.
Mail on Sunday Tories powerful; Labour calamity; Ukip demagogic; SNP dangerous. Verdict: Conservative.
Independent on Sunday Verdict: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Evening Standard Labour divisive; Tories good for London. Verdict: Conservative.
I haven’t yet spotted an out-and-out endorsement editorial from the Mirror. I’m going to mark it down as “vote Labour”. But do let me know if you spot a link.
Read these
- In the Times, Alice Thomson says we ought to be a bit kinder to our MPs:
Of the last intake of Tory MPs in 2010, nearly a quarter are now separated or divorced. Many are struggling to make ends meet, usually expected to live in two places, with a resentful spouse keeping everything together while they vote late in Westminster and hold surgeries at weekends. They know they can’t complain.
- In the Daily Mail, Sarah Vine gives the spouse’s verdict on five years of being married to a cabinet minister (that’s Michael Gove):
The civil service is a complete misnomer. It is neither civil nor a service. It regards elected members as a minor inconvenience and their so-called policies as an occupational hazard. Thus most of their energies are directed to thwarting the wishes of ministers …
If you really want to get something done, forget MPs and ministers. The people with the true power are a group of 20-something women: the private secretaries. They are the ones doing the work while everyone else does the shouting. Even the permanent secretaries respect them — which is saying something.
- In the Financial Times, Martin Wolf questions the Tory record on the economy:
Whatever one thinks of the fiscal policies of the coalition, a weak and unbalanced recovery from a huge recession is not a vindication. The UK faces really big economic challenges. It confronts equally huge questions about its place in the world and in Europe, as well as its own constitutional future.
Neither main party offers convincing responses to these challenges. Have no illusion: real competence is not on offer, either in economics or, in truth, much else.
- And with surely the scoop of the day is the Herald, which has tracked down the woman photographed with Alex Salmond in 1999 and popularly known as “Solero girl” (much to the chagrin of Buzzfeed’s Jamie Ross, who has been on her trail for some time). She is Kate Adamson, who now lives in Melbourne. And she’d like you to vote SNP.
The day in a tweet
I wonder what an election without extreme newspaper propaganda would be like? I presume it would be too confusing for all of us.
— Robin Ince (@robinince) May 6, 2015
If today were a box set, it would be…
24. Counting down an hour at a time, dogged types working through the night, a plot chock-full of cliffhangers, and nobody ever needing to go to the bathroom.
The key story you’re missing when you’re election-obsessed
Wednesday is the deadline for Israel’s prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu to put together a coalition to govern, following elections in March. By this morning, Netanyahu is obliged by law to have put together a new government or step aside as prime minister.
