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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Claire Phipps

Election morning briefing: 'more story lines than Downton Abbey'

David Cameron
The PM in hi-vis garb. We’ve already seen him in his kitchen, and on his battle-bus. If only he could do all three at once, he might win the election. Photograph: Getty Images

The big picture

The story set to dominate the morning is the Telegraph’s story that 100 business leaders have penned a letter in support of a Conservative win – of which more later.

Here are the other stories to know about:

Labour

There is only one way to end Tory austerity in Scotland and that’s by voting Labour.

Lib Dems

Conservatives

The team is the team. You don’t want to change the person who has driven our economic performance, and has been at the helm of it.

Ukip

Other things we learned

For everything else, catch up with Nadia Khomami’s round-up of Tuesday’s key moments here.

Election 2015: The Guardian poll projection.
Our model takes in all published constituency-level polls, UK-wide polls and polling conducted in the nations, and projects the result in each of the 650 Westminster constituencies using an adjusted average. Methodology.

Diary

Suzanne Evans
Suzanne Evans.
Ruth Davidson
Ruth Davidson.
Jo Swinson
Jo Swinson.
  • At 8.30am Ukip’s economics spokesman, Patrick O’Flynn, and deputy chairman, Suzanne Evans, stage an event to demand “a free, fair EU referendum” and request assurances from Cameron that he does not have a secret deal on the issue with the Lib Dems.
  • David Cameron and George Osborne spend the morning in the West Midlands.
  • At 9.30 London mayor and would-be Tory MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Boris Johnson, launches the Conservatives’ London campaign.
  • Around the same time, Samantha Cameron will be visiting a school with another Conservative candidate, Kelly Tolhurst.
  • Also at half nine, Scotland’s party leaders – first minister Nicola Sturgeon (SNP), Jim Murphy (Labour), Ruth Davidson (Conservatives) and Willie Rennie (Lib Dems) take questions at the Scottish Police Federation conference.
  • Davidson will also be on the Today programme at 7.10am, with Murphy on at 8.10.
  • It’s busy in Scotland today: at 1pm the shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, alongside Murphy, makes a speech in Glasgow.
  • The Lib Dem battlebus heads to Scotland too, with Nick Clegg and Jo Swinson talking about plans to triple paternity leave for fathers.
  • And the Greens will be campaigning in central Scotland, highlighting their pledge for public ownership of the railways.

The big issue

More than 100 business leaders have signed a letter, splashed over the front of the Telegraph today, saying the “Conservative-led government has been good for business” and warning that “a change in course will threaten jobs and deter investment … and put the recovery at risk”.

This is familiar territory for the Telegraph, which has run similar letters before – including, coincidentally enough, on this day in 2010 – but will prompt a tussle this morning over Labour’s attractiveness to big businesses.

The Shadow business secretary, Chuka Umunna, has already said of the letter:

No one will be surprised that some business people are calling for low taxes for big businesses. That’s nothing new.

The Telegraph reports that:

The letter has been signed by at least five business leaders who previously backed Labour, including Sir Charles Dunstone, the chairman of Dixons Carphone and Talk Talk plc, and Duncan Bannatyne, a former star of Dragons’ Den.

The strength/weakness of such a long list of names is that it requires/encourages readers and rival media to hit google in search of a bit of background on this long list of illustrious business names. So, the first signatory: Rooney Anand. Here he is, in a Guardian article from last year, after his company, Greene King, lost a battle with HMRC over “a highly artificial tax avoidance scheme”.

At first glance, Lady (Karren) Brady, Lady Shields and Lord Rose jump out as Conservative peers.

Lord Bamford donated more than £1m to the Conservatives before the last election and was nominated for a peerage the same year, only to withdraw his name. But he got another go in 2013, when he joined the House of Lords.

Expect much more of this. The second job for today, of course, is to work out why some of the signatories are picked out in pink.

Read these

Maggie Smith as the Dowager Countess. Not standing for election.
Maggie Smith as the Dowager Countess. Not standing for election. Photograph: Nick Briggs/AP
  • John Cassidy in the New Yorker gets a little overexcited about the “thrilling” UK election campaign:

Not only is the contest perilously close, it has more story lines than an episode of Downton Abbey.

(Although, to be fair, there was that episode where they decamped to the Scottish Highlands and everyone was ghastly to each other.)

  • In the Times (paywall), Daniel Finkenstein wonders what it will take to produce a last-minute swing to the Conservatives such as was seen in 1992:

While parties can lose even when their candidate for prime minister is preferred to his main rival, and they can lose when they are thought stronger on the economy than their opponents, no one has ever lost when ahead on both leadership and the economy. Yet this time, the Conservatives look as if they might.

The day in a tweet

If today were a song, it would be…

0 to 100 (as long as Drake was referring to hours in contracts and open letter signatories).

The key story you’re missing when you’re election-obsessed

In the Nigerian election, opposition leader Muhammadu Buhari has swept to victory, ousting sitting president Goodluck Jonathan and inflicting the first defeat on an incumbent in the history of Africa’s biggest democracy.

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