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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
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Tom McCarthy

Primary live: Trump and Clinton win big as Kasich takes Ohio and Rubio quits

Interactive
Results

Summary

We’ve come to the end of another election night – and did we just come up with a general election contest?

Multiple campaigns and serial pundits might deny it. And in fact there remain slim chances that Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton might not be our future presidential nominees. Trump appeared to have more significant obstacles than Clinton, with a difficult path to an outright delegate majority and influential members of his party actively working against him.

But with results in Missouri in both party’s races still too close to call, Clinton has won four out of four other states on the Democratic side, and Trump has won three out of four, dropping Ohio to home-state governor John Kasich.

Here’s a summary of where things stand:

  • Hillary Clinton romped through the Democratic races, with a very large 31-point win in Florida supercharging her delegate lead.
  • Donald Trump dropped Ohio to Kasich but won three of the other four contests, including Florida, where he picked up 99 delegates. He could end up with four wins out of five, with the Missouri result still unresolved.
  • Florida senator Marco Rubio suspended his campaign after losing every county in his home state to Trump but Miami-Dade, where he lives.
  • Texas senator Ted Cruz challenged Trump in Missouri in a race too close to call. He called it a two-man race for the nomination, pointing to his previous wins.
  • Kasich said he would stay in the race through the national convention in July, asserting that Trump could not get to the 1,237 majority of delegates he needs to win outright – the idea being to precipitate a contested convention and fight it out.
  • Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders held a large rally in Phoenix, Arizona, in which he did not mention the night’s results. But the Vermont senator later released a statement saying: “We remain confident that our campaign is on a path to win the nomination.”
  • The demographics look good for Sanders in the next handful of races but not as good afterwards. Trump seems well positioned in north-eastern states due to vote soon – but could face difficulty in the Rockies and out West. Here’s a schedule of upcoming voting.
  • The two races split a bit from here, with Democrats voting solo in five states in the next month. The next big voting is a week from now, in Arizona, Idaho and Utah.
  • Here are the delegate counts as they stand:
Republicans
Democrats

Updated

Rubio did not take Cruz’s call tonight, Bloomberg reports:

Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report thinks that Trump voters’ apparent aversion to delegates with foreign-sounding names has cost the candidate delegates.

On Illinois ballots, delegates are listed by name with an indication of which candidate they support, and voters elect the delegates directly. (In other states voters simply vote for candidates by name and the party takes care of assigning delegates.)

Trump delegates Raja Sidiq and Nabi Fakroddin did not keep pace with other delegates pledged to Trump, such as Doug Hartmann and James Devors, Wasserman points out.

And it may have left Trump with two fewer chips in his delegates stack:

Sanders: 'we remain confident' in victory

In a belated comment on tonight’s results, which he omitted from an hourlong speech tonight in Phoenix, Bernie Sanders congratulates Clinton, thanks supporters and says, “we remain confident that our campaign is on a path to win the nomination.”

Now Trump claims Missouri. Not so fast, Trump. We still have Missouri in the Too Close to Call column. At stake for the Missouri statewide victor are 12 bonus delegates.

Clinton’s speechwriter tweets a jubilant scene of Clinton staffers really having fun with classic rock and roll and dancing on this their night of exhilarating victory

Update from the spokeswoman. Feeling the Journey. Real exhilaration tonight in camp Clinton.

Updated

Clinton claims victory in Missouri

The Missouri cake isn’t quite baked, as far as we’re concerned. But NBC News has called it for Clinton – and Clinton takes it:

Clinton holds a lead of two-tenths of a percentage point in Missouri with 99.9% reporting.

That’s close!

And here’s an instant replay of Clinton winning Illinois:

A tall state – but she has a lift.
A tall state – but she has a lift. Photograph: guardian

The Republican National Committee says tonight was “more bad news” for Clinton.

Four wins and maybe five, a 300-delegate lead, relief in Illinois and Ohio and a restored sense of equilibrium: the kind of bad news a campaign might wish for.

Clinton wins Illinois

Clinton takes her fourth state, her birthplace, in a tight race. The Clinton campaign had prepared for a loss in the state on the strength of a strong Bernie Sanders attack on Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel, a Clinton ally. The Democrats award 182 delegates in the state on a proportional basis by congressional district.

Note: This post has been corrected in its description of Illinois’ rules for awarding Democratic delegates.

Updated

Of the three races still out, by far the biggest lead belongs to Hillary Clinton in Illinois, where she’s up 2 points with 92.6% reporting.

The Missouri races are both less than 1% apart.

Illinois looking good for Clinton.
Illinois looking good for Clinton. Photograph: Guardian

Updated

Some home-state love for governor Kasich.

There’s a concentration in the northeast among states hosting Republican contests from now through the end of April: Arizona, Utah, Wisconsin, New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.

Kasich is headed to Pennsylvania tomorrow, where there’s sparse polling – but he appears to be far behind Trump.

There’s winning only your home state (Kasich, so far) – and then there’s winning only your home town:

Updated

Clinton claims 'very strong lead'

After Clinton’s string of victories on Tuesday, her campaign said her lead would be “very hard to overtake” but stopped short of saying it was insurmountable. The campaign also refused to call on Sanders to exit the race, writes the Guardian’s Lauren Gambino:

“It is not up to us when the Democratic primary ends,” Jennifer Palmieri, Clinton’s communications director, told reporters after Clinton’s speech in Florida. “But we believe that it is a very strong lead, twice the size of any lead Senator Obama had as a candidate over then Senator Clinton.”

Clinton takes the stage in West Palm Beach, Florida.
Clinton takes the stage in West Palm Beach, Florida. Photograph: Carlos Barria/Reuters

Palmieri added: “When she ran against president Obama in 2008 she stayed in until the end. She said that she would never call on someone to drop out.”

But soon after Clinton’s speech ended, Correct the Record, a Super pac backing Clinton’s candidacy, said Tuesday’s victories “effectively ended the Democratic nomination for president” and taunted Sanders for staying in the race.

“If Sanders soldiers on, it will be for the same reason he made a politically calculating decision to run as a Democrat to begin with: to get media coverage for his own personal ambition,” said Brad Woodhouse, the Pac’s president.

We’re starting to go granular on the Democratic Missouri race – where Bernie Sanders holds a 2.3% edge, with 89.1% reporting (we’re sure by now that you have found our comprehensive results page but just in case for the stragglers, it’s here).

Check out Lewis County, in the far northeast of the state, second one from the top (it’s in gray in the graphic below). With 495 total votes cast and 100% reporting, it’s... tied at 239 votes apiece.

Lewis County, on a knife edge.
Lewis County, on a knife edge. Photograph: Guardian

What happened to the other 17 votes? Recount! Or not, if Sanders holds his margin – he leads by about 12,000 votes at the moment.

He may have been winning the GOP primary on Tuesday night, but Donald Trump just hit an all time low.

In his victory speech, as he was flanked by a grinning Corey Lewandowski, his embattled campaign manager who stands accused of assaulting reporter Michelle Fields when she asked Trump a question on his way out of an event. (Last week Fields filed a criminal complaint against Lewandowski; her case is supported by an eyewitness account from Ben Terris of The Washington Post, as well as publicly available audio of the incident.)

A report from Politico found Lewandowski has a long history of acting inappropriately – and that the reporter, Ben Schreckinger, was denied entry to Trump’s Tuesday night event.

Yet Trump chose to put Lewandowski on center stage at his press conference in Palm Beach, Florida, referring to him as part of his “squad” and singling him out for the highest of high praise with: “Good job Corey.” Lewandowski beamed.

There is a loyalty to your teammates and then there is this – purposefully extending a (scarcely) metaphorical finger to the press corps and to anyone who would question your campaign or go in search of truth.

Trump certainly wasn’t trying to hide his disdain. “Disgusting reporters. Horrible people. Some are nice,” Trump said in his concluding remarks. (That “some are nice” line is a dog whistle for anyone willing to trade their reporting teeth for access or a favorable column.)

Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised. This, after all, is what Trump has done his entire campaign: find the ugliest thing supporting him or giving him power, and feed the beast. Punch someone in the face? He’ll pay the legal bills. Assault a woman reporter? He’ll shower praise on you on live TV.

In a way Trump’s entire candidacy has been a more diffuse version of this. He’s determined that some of what is most base in America – our bigotry and racism and fear of outsiders – serves him, and as long as the hellfire helps him, he’ll fan the flames. This is just the clearest example we’ve seen – this week.

Chicago ambiance.

Trump agrees with early-March Marco Rubio that the Florida victor will be the Republican nominee:

Hold the phone. This represents people getting really excited about a close race, more than anything. But with some models showing Trump just missing a majority of delegates, and the prospect of a brokered convention (sort of) looming.... Paul Ryan? Why not.

Updated

Sanders does not mention results

Bernie Sanders did not mention the night’s dismal results during a rally for 7,200 supporters in Phoenix, Arizona, writes Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts:

It felt like a surreal end to a surreal few months for a campaign that has gone further than any expected – yet may finally have run out of road.

“Don’t let people tell you that you can’t think big,” the Vermont senator told the crowd in what proved to be a standard rendition of his stump speech.

Ohio? Florida? Never heard of ’em.
Ohio? Florida? Never heard of ’em. Photograph: Ricardo Arduengo/AP

The only difference was far fewer mentions of Hillary Clinton than usual – a figure Sanders mainly referred to as “his opponent” – rather than the more direct attacks of recent days.

Shortly after bad news from the east started flooding in, the campaign showed its determination to keep running by announcing a new rally on Friday in Idaho, another small state (delegates-wise) that has a primary election next week.

In the meantime, the senator and his exhausted team is planning a couple of days of recuperation in Sedona – a resort town in the desert north of Phoenix famous as a New Age hang out.

There is likely to be much reflection on why the momentum this campaign felt after Michigan failed to translate into success in Ohio or Illinois.

A win in Missouri would buoy some spirits, but there is no doubt that the campaign is moving slowly to the next phase: finding ways to capture the undoubted energy and passion of its supporters into something longer lasting rather than the in the increasingly thankless job of counting delegates.

Delegates snapshot

How is the delegates dust settling? Be advised that Missouri is still unresolved – and that’s important on the Republican side especially, since Trump looks like he may turn a narrow victory or even loss into a delegates win, thanks to strong leads in most congressional districts.

But here’s a snapshot of both races:

Republicansl
Dedmes

Many members of the media noticed Trump’s awarding pride of place tonight to campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, following a week in which past alleged abusive behavior by Lewandowski surfaced and in which he was the object of a criminal battery complaint in Florida for allegedly bruising a reporter.

It appears that reporting on Lewandowski’s past does not win friends with the Trump camp:

Cruz wraps his speech. He’s angling to make the race a one-on-one contest with Trump.

It would help if Cruz can get past Trump in Missouri, but so far – not.

This is a serious squeaker on the Republican side in Missouri, where the statewide winner gets 12 delegates all his own.

Our comprehensive results page is here. Only 305 votes separate Trump and Cruz, with 70.8% reporting.

“We will take the boot of the federal government off the backs of the necks of small businesses all across this country,” Cruz says.

He promises to make the government less relevant. He promises higher wages and a better standard of life.

“Two debates ago, Donald Trump promised all of us that he would compromise... on replacing Antonin Scalia.

“I will not compromise away your religious liberty. And I will not compromise away your second-amendment right to bear arms.”

Cruz paints picture of two-candidate race

“Only two campaigns have a plausible path to the nomination. Ours, and Donald Trump’s,” Cruz says.

“Only one campaign has beaten Donald Trump over, and over, and over again.”

Cruz says the choice is “straightforward” – between a candidate who “shares your values” or “opposes your values.”

Cruz: 'America now has a clear choice'

Here’s the last candidate to speak tonight, Ted Cruz (we have a report on Bernie Sanders’ speech in the works).

Cruz is in Texas. He starts in immediately on Clinton, after thanking Carly Fiorina who warmed up the crowd for him.

“Hillary tosses and turns in her jail cell thinking about [Fiorina].” Huh.

“After tonight, America now has a clear choice, going forward.”

“Let me now say a word about Marco Rubio. Marco is a prince.”

Cruz says he welcomes Rubio supporters.

Updated

Contests still open

Still out are Missouri, both sides, and the Illinois Democrats. All three contests are close.

The tally otherwise sees Clinton and Trump with three wins apiece, and John Kasich with a win in Ohio.

But where did Kasich finish otherwise? He’s third in Illinois, North Carolina and Missouri – and fourth in Florida.

Marco Rubio, who suspended his campaign this evening, finished second in Florida and last everywhere else.

Updated

As ever, trawling through the raw data of actual votes is revealing. Sure, Trump has won Florida with 46% of votes there but did you know that Jeb Bush got 2% of votes and Ben Carson got 1%?

In many states, ballot papers are printed far in advance and so voters are still presented with the names of some candidates who have dropped out of the race. That means that 79,924 Republican votes were essentially wasted in Florida – as well as 38,593 Democratic ballot papers that checked the name Martin O’Malley.

Updated

Missouri delivers suspense on the Democratic side, too. 84 delegates awarded on a proportional basis are at stake.

Close in Missouri.
Close in Missouri. Photograph: Guardian

What’s at stake for Republicans in Missouri? It awards 52 total delegates, with 12 to the winner statewide and the rest per congressional district. If a candidate clears 50% that candidate takes all – but with a truly neck-and-neck race between Cruz and Trump, no such majority will likely materialize.

Updated

Trump claims he has been a victim of bad press. The Republican candidate seems to have conveniently overlooked the fact that political elections are perhaps the only time when the expression “all publicity is good publicity” actually holds true.

Polls have a feedback loop. When a candidate is ahead in the polls, they are more likely to stay ahead in the polls. And simple name recognition can help them to get that early lead. As a household name, Trump already had that recognizability which undoubtedly worked in his favor early on but the media emphasized that by relentlessly covering every word and every move of the billionaire.

As the New York Times showed earlier on today, Trump was essentially given free publicity. He spent far less on presidential ads than other candidates ($10m compared to Jeb Bush’s $82m) but earned $1,898m in media exposure from free coverage of his campaign. No other candidate comes close to that.

Updated

In his rambling victory speech, Trump mentioned the Australian pro golfer Adam Scott winning a tournament at his Florida golf course.

And the Parks and Recreation actor by the same name is forced to Twitter to beg for mentions mercy:

(h/t @claire_phipps)

Updated

There’s one Republican race left to call – Missouri. Here’s how it looks with 32.2% reporting:

Neck-and-neck in Missouri.
Neck-and-neck in Missouri. Photograph: Guardian

Let’s take a step back:

Hours before Hillary Clinton took the stage in West Palm Beach – even before polls in the state closed - her election night party pulsed to the Latin rhythms blaring over the loudspeakers. The cheered and chanted “Hillary” and “I’m with Her”, growing louder as the night unfolded.

Then came Clinton’s first big win of the night: Florida. The crowd erupted into deafening applause. Wins in North Carolina and Ohio, where the race between her and opponent Bernie Sanders was expected to be close, followed.

Then the crowd erupted in wild cheers and chants as Clinton emerged on stage. She smiled brightly, turned and waved to the crowd that encircled the podium.

“This is another Super Tuesday for the campaign,” Clinton says. “Thank for Florida, thank you North Carolina, than you Ohio.”

The crowd went wild again. By the end of the night, Clinton said, her campaign expected to expand its lead over Sanders to more than 300 pledged delegates – nearly enough to block his path to the nomination.

With Tuesday night’s wins, her campaign can confidently say it swept the south while rebutting the argument that she is a regional candidate whose wins are concentrated in states that Democrats don’t win in a general election. At this stage, she’s won the battleground states of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and Nevada.

The backdrop of the event – from the Latin music to the Spanish signage – worked as a reminder of the diverse coalition that has so far powered her biggest wins yet. Latinos and especially black voters have been at the heart of her string of major victories. While Sanders has made marginal gains among Latino and black communities, he has been unable to draw these voters away from Clinton in large enough numbers to make a difference.

During Clinton’s victory speech, she trained her fire on Donald Trump, who after big wins on Tuesday is increasingly likely to be the Republican nominee.

“This may be one of the most consequential campaigns of our lifetimes,” she said. “The next president will walk into the Oval Office next January…”

“YES SHE WILL,” someone in the crowd shouted.

Clinton continued: “... sit down at that desk and start making decisions that will affect the livelihoods of everyone in this country, indeed everyone on this planet.”

In the past week, Clinton has attempted to distinguish herself from Trump on an international stage, noting in the CNN debate earlier this week that she had world leaders reaching out to her about the tone and tenor of the election.

“Our commander in chief has to be able to defend our country, not embarrass,” Clinton declared in her remarks on Tuesday night. Clinton railed against Trump’s most controversial proposals, including his calls for mass deportations of all undocumented immigrants and barring Muslims from entering the US, as well as his embrace of torture.

“That doesn’t make him strong, that makes him wrong,” she declared.

Though results were still pending in two states by the time her speech ended, Tuesday night clarified and all but cleared Clinton’s path to the nomination, pushing her campaign into a new and unpredictable stage of the race.

Hillary Clinton greets people in the audience and takes photos during her election night event at the Palm Beach County Convention Center.
Hillary Clinton greets people in the audience and takes photos during her election night event at the Palm Beach County Convention Center. Photograph: Carolyn Kaster/AP

Trump wraps. No questions tonight.

Updated

Guardian Washington correspondent David Smith is in the Trump room, which looks like this:

Trump has a shout-out for his campaign manager, the target of a criminal battery complaint in North Carolina Florida [a sheriff in North Carolina is separately considering charges against Trump for inciting a riot]:

Updated

Trump congratulates Rubio

Trump “I want to congratulate Marco Rubio on running a really tough campaign... he’s got a great future.”

He says he has received more negative advertising than anyone in the history of politics.

“Mostly false. I wouldn’t say 100% but 90%.”

“You explain it to me, because I can’t. My numbers went up. I don’t understand it. Nobody understands it.”

Updated

Trump is rambling about how nobody expected him to run. “There is great anger, believe me, there is great anger.”

We believe him.

Where are the steaks? Instead of steaks and wine this time we get Corey and Eric.

“They’re not angry people, but they want to see the country properly run. They want to see borders. They want to see good health care. They want our military rebuilt. And they want the second amendment by the way protected and protected strongly.”

“Our veterans are treated so badly.”

“Something happened called Paris... Paris was a disaster. .. and it just goes on and on and on.”

Updated

Trump says if he’s elected president, Apple won’t make anything in China.

“I want to pay my respects by the way to Todd Palin... He was in a very bad accident. He’s tough as nails, he’ll be fine. I just want to pay my respects to Todd.

“Yeah, sit down, everybody, please!”

Trump thanks his 9-year-old son for never seeing him:

“I want to thank Barron for the fact that I never see him anymore. And it’s his birthday on Sunday.”

Trump is flanked onstage by campaign manager Corey Lewandowski and son Eric. The Trumps are in pink ties. Lewandowski’s yellow. Very Florida.

Trump thanks his family after some poll talk.

Trump: “Northern Marianas Islands have been so incredible. And we picked up nine delegates, that’s a lot.”

Watch a live stream of Donald Trump in Palm Beach, Florida

John Kasich earlier.
John Kasich earlier. Photograph: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

Trump addresses supporters

Here’s Trump at Mar-a-Largo. Three wins tonight so far, one loss – and the Missouri result to come.

Trump wins Illinois

Trump has just been projected the winner of Illinois by AP, his third win of the night. Illinois Republicans will award 69 delegates proportionally.

Trump projected to win North Carolina

Donald Trump has won the Republican primary in North Carolina, the Associated Press projects.

Note that the state awards its 72 Republican delegates proportionally, and so margin matters – and it appears to have been a close race.

Hugger Man. Definitely.

As we’re waiting for the Missouri results to come in, it’s worth remembering this was tonight’s least predictable primary. Only two Democratic polls have been conducted there this year, and only one poll has asked Republican voters who they prefer – those surveys suggested that Sanders and Clinton would be neck-and-neck and that Trump would be ahead of the Republican field (which so far appears true - but only by a whisker).

With 52 Republican delegates (distributed on a winner takes all basis) and 84 Democratic delegates available in Missouri, this will be an interesting primary.

Race updates: Illinois, Ohio, North Carolina

What’s happening in Missouri, Illinois, and the North Carolina Republican race?

Our live results page is chugging along here.

With 30% reporting in the Illinois Democrats race, Clinton is up 53-47.

With 30% reporting in the Illinois GOP race, Trump is up 40-26 over Cruz (Kasich is at 23).

With 15% reporting in the Missouri Democrats race, Sanders is up 50-48.

With 15% reporting in the Missouri GOP race, Trump is up 43-41 over Cruz.

With 47% reporting in the North Carolina GOP race, Trump is up 41-36 over Cruz.

Cheers went up from the crowd gathered for John Kasich’s victory party in the field house at the small liberal arts college Baldwin Wallace University in Berea, Ohio (a suburb of Cleveland), as CNN announced that they were calling the Ohio Republican primary for their candidate.

Beth Ehrbar, a Berea resident who works at the university and used to be a constituent of Kasich’s during his time as a Columbus-area Congressman, declared herself “very excited!”

“I see John Kasich as a compassionate conservative,” she added, “and I’m very drawn to that.”

Compassionate conservativism – once used by George W Bush to describe his mixture of personal empathy and conservative policy prescriptions – has been key to Kasich’s campaign the last few months, as he’s tried to separate himself from the politics represented by Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and, more recently, Marco Rubio.

A few feet a way, a group of Alpha Sigma Phi fraternity members from Baldwin Wallace were celebrating the win. Patrick Hoang said that he voted for Kasich in Tuesday’s primary because “I believe John Kasich is the best candidate – and I wanted to be part of the effort to stop Donald Trump.”

“I’m really looking forward to a brokered convention,” he added. “I believe neither of them [Cruz or Trump} would be a good fit for the presidency.”

Austin Hermann, said, “I’m from Pennsylvania, so he has my vote there” on 26 April.

Ryan Ginley was even more enthusiastic. “He supports the red, white and blue, the constitution and our country, so I support John Kasich” – who, it should be noted, was himself an Alpha Sigma Phi brother, according to the Baldwin students.

John Kasich celebrating his win.
John Kasich celebrating his win. Photograph: Aaron Josefczyk/Reuters

Ted Cruz calls Marco Rubio “a friend and colleague who ran an optimistic campaign”:

Hillary Clinton is campaigning in the general election again. After Bernie Sanders gave her a surprise scare with his big win in Michigan last week, Clinton was forced back into the ring with Sanders. But as she took the stage Tuesday night after decisive wins in Florida, North Carolina and the all-important Ohio, she was cheerful and chatty and talking largely past Sanders.

Instead, most of her barbs were aimed straight for the likely Republican nominee, and particularly his propensity to propel forward bigotry and hate. Not that she was above mocking Donald Trump: America’s commander in chief, she said, “needs to be able to defend our country, not embarrass it”. She also touched on the violence that’s featured so prominently in his recent rallies.

Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, has already turned his attention elsewhere – he’s in Arizona, which votes next week. Those plans were laid before the results came in. And after a bad night for him in Ohio and beyond, the message is clear: they’re going to continue on regardless.

For some time, Sanders has been promising to take his campaign all the way to the convention. And even after the setbacks of tonight – which the campaign is hopeful will be softened as results keep coming in – he appears poised to soldier on. Next stop? Idaho, according to a campaign update sent 40 minutes after the last polls closed.

Updated

Cruz camp: 'mathematically impossible' for Kasich

Here’s what Ted Cruz’s chief strategist thinks of Kasichs’ speech:

Kasich would only need something like 85% of all remaining delegates. Uphill climb for sure!

Kasich: 'all the way to Cleveland'

Kasich does not appear to have much of a nailed-down travel schedule, judging from his own description. “Tomorrow I’m going to Philadelphia. And then I’m going, I don’t know, all over the country!” he says.

“This is all I got, OK? This is all I got,” Kasich says, grabbing his jacket. Then he comes up with an applause line:

We are gonna go all the way to Cleveland and secure the Republican nomination.

Updated

Kasich is paying tribute to people who make sacrifices for other people. Nurses who work an extra 15 minutes when they’re dead on their feet. Teachers who take less pay to change lives. And people who take widows out to dinner: “She’ll put on that dress she hasn’t worn for six months.”

A few senate races of import sorting out a bit tonight:

“I want to remind you tonight that I will not take the low road to the highest office in the land,” Kasich says.

Big applause line.

Updated

Here’s an instant replay of John Kasich winning Ohio. Notice that Trump ran strong in the Appalachia counties, Kasich in the urban centers.

Kasich wins Ohio.
Kasich wins Ohio. Photograph: guardian

The Guardian’s Megan Carpentier is in the Kasich room and gets a pic of the pro-Trump protester:

The protester was saying “he needs to understand that he needs to drop out and make way for the real candidate”, Megan reports.

Kasich asks for applause for a “very talented and fine United States senator, Marco Rubio.” There’s applause.

Kasich is narrating a trip to a restaurant. People started to cheer. He asked them not to because “you’re gonna make me cry.”

He thanks Ohioans. “I love ya,” he says.

The crowd likes him a lot.

There’s a disturbance in the crowd. It’s a pro-Trump protester. Kasich wanders over to the corner of the stage and looks over there. The protester is ejected.

“When you went to college in the 1970s, you appreciate a good peaceful protest every once in awhile,” Kasich says.

Updated

Kasich addresses supporters

The Ohio governor hits the stage.

USA! USA! the crowd chants.

“You better believe it’s about America, about pulling us together, not pulling us apart. It is about USA. Exactly,” he says.

Watch a live stream of John Kasich speaking in Berea, Ohio

John Kasich cannot (in nearly every scenario) get the 1,237 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination before Cleveland, writes Guardian politics reporter Ben Jacobs:

But, by winning his home state of Ohio, Kasich has made it harder for anyone else to reach that magic number either.

Pasquale Manno waits for Kasich at his presidential primary election rally in Berea, Ohio, on Tuesday.
Pasquale Manno waits for Kasich at his presidential primary election rally in Berea, Ohio, on Tuesday. Photograph: Tony Dejak/AP

Ohio’s winner-take-all primary awards 66 delegates and, by winning those, Kasich will stay in the race and be able to play spoiler in fierce contest between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump.

Cruz’s campaign manager Jeff Roe told reporters tonight that Kasich’s presence in the race was “a jumpball” from his perspective. On one hand, it meant the Ohio governor had kept Donald Trump from earning 66 delegates in Ohio. On the other, it mean that the anti-Trump vote in the party would continue to be divided.

With Trump’s win in Florida and his loss in Ohio, the current frontrunner still needs to win 59% of the available delegates to become the GOP’s nominee before the convention. In this fiercely contested and still splintered field, that is a difficult task for Trump to master.

Updated

Clinton lays into Trump

The big victor of the night so far unloads on the frontrunner – in a speech that feels addressed to the country at large, in a general election – focused now on the Republican side with sweeping rhetoric and a national call to action for supporters.

“Our commander-in-chief has to be able defend our country, not embarrass it,” she says. Big applause. The leader must “not alienate allies... and not embolden enemies.”

She does not name Trump at first but mentions a candidate who favors “rounding up 12m immigrants.. banning Muslims... embraces torture.”

“That doesn’t make him strong, it makes him wrong.”

“We should be breaking down barriers not building walls. ... To be great, we can’t be small. ... And this isn’t just about Donald Trump. All of us have to do our part.”

Updated

Kasich: 'No candidate will win 1237 delegates'

The Kasich camp is out immediately with a somewhat audacious – ambitious at least – claim on a right to the Republican nomination, given that he has won only one state, and his home state at that.

The news release says “tonight’s results make clear” that Kasich “can overcome the Donald Trump insult machine.” It goes on to assert that “no candidate will will 1,237 delegates” – the majority needed to win the nomination outright.

There are some highly optimistic passages in there. Here’s one:

With the electoral map shifting significantly in our favor, Gov. Kasich is positioned to accumulate a large share of the almost 1,000 remaining delegates and enter Cleveland in strong position to become the nominee

The Guardian’s Lauren Gambino is in the hall with Clinton:

Clinton’s voice is hoarse. She says that more people have voted for her so far this cycle than any other candidate.

Here’s the reception at the Kasich party:

Clinton: 'We are moving closer to securing the Democratic party nomination'

Clinton addresses supporters and says ‘our delegate lead [was stretched] roughly 300”:

We are moving closer to securing the Democratic party nomination and winning this election in November,” she says.

Watch a live stream of Hillary Clinton speaking in West Palm Beach, Florida

The Guardian’s Megan Carpentier is at Kasich’s party:

Kasich wins Ohio

Ohio governor John Kasich has prevailed in his home state, the AP projects.

It’s Kasich’s first win of the race – it allows him to stay in – and in a fell swoop he more than doubles his delegate total. He had only 63 delegates going into the night. In Ohio he picked up 66.

In one of the most consequential moves of the night, Ohio has been called for Hillary Clinton. It’s a huge win for the Clinton camp that could put this race out of reach for Bernie Sanders.

After Sanders grabbed a surprise victory in Michigan last week, Berners were hoping his messaging on trade in particular would help him pull another victory in the slightly whiter but still manufacturing-heavy state of Ohio, where many jobs have been automated or sent overseas.

Now the verdict is in: no dice.

Ohio governor John Kasich is talking to CNN on the phone on the strength of the network having called the state for him.

CNN is ahead of the wave on Ohio, with neither the Associated Press nor other outlets having declared a Kasich win. The Guardian is not yet declaring a Kasich win in Ohio.

But there’s Kasich, talking on the phone about Pennsylvania tomorrow, and Colorado, and Maryland, and California...

“This is the little engine that can,” Kasich said. “For those people who like the underdog... it’s pretty cool.”

Stay tuned.

Cruz camp sees favorable winds coming

In an interview with reporters before Marco Rubio dropped out, Ted Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe weighed in on the race in an interview with Guardian political reporter Ben Jacobs:

Roe thought Cruz would be in good shape if Trump’s delegate lead was kept to around 275 after tonight, with his win in Florida.

The astute operative said Kasich’s continued presence in the race was “a jumpball” as far as they were concerned. On one hand, it meant the Ohio governor had kept Donald Trump from earning 66 delegates in Ohio. On the other, it mean that the anti-Trump vote in the party would continue to be divided.

Roe added that with most of the coming contests being closed primaries, which only allow Republicans to participate, his candidate would be in strong shape in even nominally liberal states on the east coast like Pennsylvania and Connecticut.

Marco Rubio is just 44 years old and, if he sounded like he was paving the the way for future ambitions as he eloquently announced the suspension of his presidential campaign, perhaps he was.

Rubio has reportedly been laying the groundwork to end his campaign with grace for some time, increasingly using his time in the spotlight to highlight not his own candidacy but offer to offer a sophisticated critique of America in the age of Trump. And as he announced the suspension of his presidential campaign Tuesday night, that continued.

The country is “in the middle of a real political storm, a real tsunami,” he told supporters. But he wasn’t blaming voters or even the media – rather, it fell almost entirely on the political establishment, which he said “for far too long has taken the votes of political conservatives for granted”. No longer: these are Trumpian times.

Here’s an instant replay of Clinton winning Ohio:

Three out of three for Clinton so far.
Three out of three for Clinton so far. Photograph: Guardian

Updated

Sanders: onwards to ... Idaho

With Bernie Sanders getting crushed not just in Florida and North Carolina, but possibly too in Ohio, his ever-upbeat team just issued a press release announcing a new rally in... Idaho, writes Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts:

The state, which votes on March 22, only has 27 delegates. But it’s a brave display of determination by a campaign that insists it will keep campaigning all the way to the Democratic nomination.

A Tuesday evening rally in Phoenix.
A Tuesday evening rally in Phoenix. Photograph: Nancy Wiechec/Reuters

Tonight, they are in Phoenix, Arizona, another state that votes next week, but if Sanders loses two, or even three of the Midwest battlegrounds he was contesting tonight, it will be hard to keep arguing that the map will eventually turn in their favour.

Instead, the strategy of heading west looks more and more like the behaviour of a political movement than a political campaign.

Updated

A Kasich strategist tips his hat to the Rubio campaign:

Clinton wins Ohio

Hillary Clinton is the projected winner of Ohio – she’s three for three so far, and the Ohio result is a big one, against concerns that Sanders’ Michigan upset last week would expand south.

What happens to Rubio’s delegates?

This is a complicated, but important question given that so far Rubio has 163 delegates. The answer though isn’t clear. It’s often assumed that those delegates will head to the national convention uncommitted, much like Democratic “superdelegates”. But it’s also possible that Rubio will endorse another candidate and in so doing give over his 163 delegates. To make things yet more complicated, the rules governing this vary from state to state - delegates might be free to vote as they choose, they could be allocated to another candidate, or in states like Iowa, they’re simply bound by the results of the first ballot, which means that they have to vote for a specific candidate, even if that individual is no longer a candidate in the race(!).

These uncertainties are frustrating - it means figuring out whether or not Trump can be stopped from getting the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the nomination isn’t so cut and dried.

Here’s an instant replay of Clinton winning North Carolina:

Clinton victorious.
Clinton victorious. Photograph: Guardian

Where will the 163 delegates Rubio had won end up? A Rubio policy adviser encourages supporters to switch to Cruz:

More to come on this shortly from Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi.

Who will be the Republican nominee?

But then there’s the Hand of God candidate elevated at the convention. Or does that only happen in the movies?

At the Kasich event, acoustics are bad, reports Megan Carpentier – but the beer is cheeeaaap:

Accompanied by the Baldwin Wallace jazz band, currently banging away at Aretha’s Respect, but the sax and the singer’s voice is getting lost in the terrible field house acoustics.

Only a flesh wound...

Polls have just closed in the eastern time zone, and already there are some early indications that John Kasich may actually do well – at least, in his home state of Ohio. Kasich crushed with late deciders, winning 54% of the vote to Donald Trump’s 28%, and polling shows him currently beating Trump by a comfortable margin (45% to 32%). Whatever the verdict in Ohio, we’re unlikely to know it until later in the night.

It’s probably a futile victory for Kasich, though – he faces almost impossibly long odds to clinch the nomination.

And it’s a notably a very different tune than the one being sung in Florida just now by Marco Rubio, who had a more viable candidacy than Kasich throughout the primary.

But now it’s a three-horse race.

Rubio says all things are in god’s hands and “god is perfect, god makes no mistakes and he has things planned for all of us and we await eagerly to find out what lies ahead.”

Rubio wraps his 2016 campaign with a prayer exalting the lord. “May god strengthen our eventual nominee,” he says.

He’s done. Over and out.

Updated

Clinton wins North Carolina

Hillary Clinton is projected to win the primary in North Carolina, the AP projects.

More soon on the margin.

He left the door open a crack on 2020 there, didn’t he? Rubio’s 44.

He’s winding toward a big finish.

Rubio suspends campaign

“While it is not God’s plan that I be president in 2016 or maybe ever, and while today my campaign is suspended...”

Rubio says 'we will not be on the winning side'

Rubio is delivering what feels very much like a valedictory, describing “the campaign we’ve run.”

He said he campaigned to be a “president that would love all the American people.”

Then he flies even closer to a withdrawal:

“After tonight it is clear that while we are on the right side, this year we will not be on the winning side...

“While this may not have been a year for a hopeful and optimistic message about our future, I still remain optimistic about our party.”

But then he pulls back to tell his parent’s immigrant stories.

Updated

Hillary Clinton fails to make live TV again – like last week, when the networks carried Trump for an hour.

Now with all cameras on Rubio, Clinton begins to address supporters:

Rubio decries 'politics of resentment'

Rubio now delivers a criticism of Trump, not by name. He says that stoking people’s fears would have been the “easiest” way to win. But he took the high road:

“From a political standpoint, the easiest thing to have done in this campaign, is to jump on all of those anxieties I just talked about. To make people angrier, to make people more frustrated.

“But that is not what’s best for America. The politics of resentment... are going to leave us a fractured nation... where people literally hate each other.”

Rubio says he has lived the immigrant experience and “I understand all of these frustrations.”

“I decided to run a campaign that was realistic about all of these challenges,” but optimistic, too, Rubio says.

Rubio: USA in middle of political 'tsunami'

“America’s in the middle of a real political storm. A real tsunami, and we should have seen this coming.”

He’s interrupted by a protester who may be saying “Go home Marco.”

“Don’t worry,” Rubio says. “He won’t get beat up at our event.” The crowd shouts Marco! Marco!

He continues, telling a story of frustration in the country rooted in the 2008 downturn.

Watch a live stream of Marco Rubio speaking in Miami, Florida

Updated

“It was a big win,” Rubio says of Trump’s Florida victory.

He thanks his supporters. He says they worked hard. He thank supporters who voted for him across the country.

“We had a great team. We have a great team.”

Rubio takes stage in Florida

Rubio is addressing supporters. He congratulates Trump, to boos.

Who is forcing Donald Trump to watch Fox News? It’s clearly driving him to distraction. We figured he was following the returns on the blog here. But if he prefers TV – can somebody tell him about CNN, and a gentleman called Wolf Blitzer?

Updated

Clinton party goes wild with Florida win

Video by Lauren Gambino in West Palm Beach, Florida.

Spanish music blares. The singers shake their hips. Supporters speak
in rapid Spanglish.

If Bernie Sanders is counting on white, particularly young, voters to help him in the Midwest, the Hillary Clinton election night party in West Palm
Beach is a reminder of the diversity among voters who power her campaign.

Clinton isn’t expected to take the stage for another hour, but the crowd here is fired up. Chants of “Hillary” and “I’m with her” rival Pitbull and J-Lo on the loudspeakers.
Suddenly the music cuts and the TV volume is on. An important projection at the top of the hour.
CNN announces that Donald Trump has won Florida to loud boos from the crowd. Then the next big announcement. Hillary Clinton has won the state of Florida.
The crowd erupts in loud cheers and chants.

The Guardian’s Sabrina Siddiqui is with the Rubio crowd. Unhappy:

Now might be a good time to pay a visit to our comprehensive results page, where a torrent of counties are reporting. Can Clinton hold on in Ohio?

Results coming in in Ohio.
Results coming in in Ohio. Photograph: Guardian

Updated

Close observers like what they see for Kasich in Ohio:

Clinton and Trump win Florida

The Sunshine State’s 99 delegates fall to Trump in what has all the appearances of a smashing, double-digit victory.

Hillary Clinton also is projected to win Florida, via the Associated Press. It’s a proportional race for 246 delegates on the Democratic side.

A devastating result for Marco Rubio – and one that makes it hard to see how he sticks in the presidential race.

“We must win here,” Rubio said in Orlando on Saturday. And he went further earlier this month:

Updated

Illinois, Missouri polls to close

Five minutes until the next and final round of poll closures. The final Florida polls are closing too.

Bernie Sanders isn’t the only one looking ahead to Arizona next week, notes the Guardian’s Lauren Gambino:

We’ll take that cue:

“Yesterday don’t matter if it’s gone.”

The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs has Tarzaned away from the Ohio exit polls to land in a jungle of North Carolina exit polling data.

The exits reflect support among North Carolina Republicans for granting legal status for undocumented migrants, which would not seem to bode particularly well for Trump:

But Trump holds a big lead among moderates...

...and an even bigger lead among first-time GOP primary voters:

A good segment of Republican voters would be unsatisfied with Donald Trump as the nominee, according to a new NBC News Exit Poll taken in five Republican primary states voting today. When asked if they’d be satisfied to choose between Trump and Hillary Clinton in the general election, just 57% said they’d be satisfied with their choice – and a whopping 37% said they’d consider a third-party candidate. That’s bad news for the party, given the states voting in tonight’s election – including GOP winner-take-all states Ohio and Florida – are some of the most consequential states still in play.

The good news for Trump is that in the crucial state of Florida, at least, voters seem to love him. A recent Quinnipiac University poll shows him easily besting Marco Rubio there with 46% of the vote to Rubio’s 22%, and early returns in the state are bearing this out.

Unlike John Kasich, who has said he would drop out if he lost his home state of Ohio, Rubio has not said definitively that he will drop out if he loses Florida, but it’s hard to see him coming back from what looks to be an impending humiliating loss.

Excited perhaps by what looks like a towering Florida victory, Trump calls Fox News host Megyn Kelly “crazy Megyn” on election night:

“Kasich is for closers”:

The above exit polling data tracks closely with surveys of voters that showed Kasich coming from behind to overtake Trump in Ohio in recent weeks.

The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs is trawling through Ohio exit polls.

He finds Kasich winning with every age group in Ohio, according to exits:

While Trump takes low-income voters:

But Trump crumples as a candidate whose values voters recognize:

Is Bernie Sanders worried about a potential blowout loss in Florida?

He’s already looking ahead to Arizona voting next Tuesday:

The power of a big margin in the Democratic race in Florida, in which delegates are awarded proportionally, may be on full display tonight.

Updated

Initial results suggest that Clinton and Trump are both ahead by a long way in Florida. That’s not really surprising - when I looked at polling averages yesterday, that was the state where both candidates had the largest leads.

The final vote share of Florida’s 99 delegates will matter for Democrats (for Republicans, this is a winner-takes-all state so percentages don’t matter so much) but I’ll be keeping a close eye on the other states where Clinton and Trump have a smaller lead tonight too.

Source: polling data from Real Clear Politics
Source: polling data from Real Clear Politics Photograph: The Guardian
Source: polling data from Real Clear Politics
Source: polling data from Real Clear Politics Photograph: The Guardian

North Carolina and Ohio polls close and there are no immediate projections. There are no official results in yet, either – but the Tarheel state looks tight in exit polling:

“I wonder how many Republican leaders will be looking at the Florida numbers and shaking their heads about how they might have played this better,” writes Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts.

One single bit of good news now for Marco Rubio: he’s looking good in Miami, where he lives.

Well wait, here’s another little bit of good news: Rubio looks likely not to come in third:

Updated

Ohio, North Carolina polls to close

Five minutes till the 2016 Ohio primary (GOP: 66 winner-take-all) is on the books. North Carolina too (GOP: 72 proportional).

Can the governor pull it off?

Hi
Hi Photograph: Matt Rourke/AP

Many close observers of Florida counties are impressed with Trump’s numbers – and Clinton’s.

The Guardian’s Lauren Gambino is on to a happy-looking scene at Clinton’s election night redoubt in West Palm Beach:

The Democratic race in Florida is proportional, not winner-take-all – meaning a big margin there, and in the other states, would matter for Clinton in the game of delegate capture, which is the only game going.

Updated

Trump calls Florida for himself.

Guardian Washington correspondent David Smith is at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago for an election night news conference. You can hit golf balls at flags there.

The results are in for one of the primaries being held today - albeit one that’s considered pretty inconsequential. The islanders of Northern Mariana, a US territory, held their Republican caucus today. All nine delegates up for grabs went to Donald Trump based on the 451 votes that were cast.

But let’s take a step back and appraise where we’re at in the race.

So far, Trump has got 469 of the 1,064 Republican delegates that have been pledged (44%). Clinton meanwhile has 768 of the 1,322 of the pledged Democrat delegates (58%) but she has a potentially huge advantage since she has 95% of the 493 unpledged so-called “super delegates” – party luminaries who don’t have to vote according to the results of the primaries.

What kind of night will Trump and Clinton have in the Sunshine state?

Updated

They’ve counted 511 Democratic votes in Florida. Clinton jumps to an early lead! Kidding– we’re at 0% reporting. Hie thee to our comprehensive results page.

Animated Clinton and mapped Florida.
Animated Clinton and mapped Florida. Photograph: Guardian

Cruz: 'absolutely zero interest' in running with Trump

Texas senator Ted Cruz has ruled out being Donald Trump’s running mate, in an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt.

Cruz also said “Donald Trump loses to Hillary”. Have a listen:

“Trump loses to Hillary.”

Florida polls close

The majority of polling stations are now closing in Florida. All polls in the state are to close by 8pm ET.

First results are expected shortly.

Introducing the Minute

If you like what you read here – we invite you try out the Campaign Minute, a quickie daily digest of politics news that can drop into your inbox or pop up on your phone once every weekday from now till November 8.

It’s designed to be fast and fun – check out today’s version here and sign up here, or register on your nearest Guardian app.

Today’s Campaign Minute.
Today’s Campaign Minute. Photograph: Guardian

Senator Marco Rubio is about to see the first returns of the rest of his political life.

The Guardian’s Sabrina Siddiqui had an exclusive interview with Rubio in which he warned that Donald Trump was an “embarrassment,” that soi-disant conservatives who back Trump will have some explaining to do down the line, and that the GOP cannot afford to become the party of fear.

Backstage at a rally in West Palm Beach, Florida, on Monday.
Backstage at a rally in West Palm Beach, Florida, on Monday. Photograph: Carlo Allegri/Reuters

Updated

Florida polls to close at top of hour

Welcome, if you’re just joining our live election night coverage – the vast majority of Florida polls are set to close at 7pm ET and we may have results fairly quickly, especially if Donald Trump’s advantage according to the pollsters translated in the actual voting.

The animated candidates live on our comprehensive results page.
The animated candidates live on our comprehensive results page. Photograph: Guardian

It’ll be a quick hour here with all five states winding down by 8pm. It’s all primaries tonight – no caucuses – so we might expect the results to be delivered with particular efficiency.

Our comprehensive, county-by-county results page is here and below. If you’ve joined us on election night before, you’ll know that it features animations of the candidates riding scissors lifts and wielding paintbrushes to mark counties they’ve won.

Here comes Florida!
Here comes Florida! Photograph: Guardian

Updated

After Tuesday: the path ahead

Where do we go from here?

Looking ahead to the demographics of upcoming races on the Democratic side, it’s heavily Western with fewer nonwhite voters and states such as Arizona and Washington with significant college populations and liberally social attitudes among primary voters. A FiveThirtyEight analysis see all of the above as boding well for Bernie Sanders, who could win seven of next eight contests after today.

Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics sees a mixed map ahead for Donald Trump, who “has demographically favorable states coming up in New York, Rhode Island, West Virginia, and possibly Connecticut and New Jersey, but there is also a slate of Midwestern and Rocky Mountain states on the horizon, where his polling performance has been much less impressive. Also, his strongest region – the South – will have finished its voting.”

Ted Cruz, for his part, will have exhausted states with significant evangelical Christian populations after tonight, in North Carolina and Missouri.

Poll closing times

7pm ET

most of Florida

7.30pm ET

Ohio and North Carolina

8pm ET

Illinois, Missouri and the Florida panhandle

NB: North Carolina is expected to produce results quickly because of a high proportion of absentee voting there. 95% of Florida polls are supposed to close at 7pm ET – but it’s Florida.

Vox Pop: the Ted Cruz education voters

Terry and Teresa Fitch
Terry and Teresa Fitch Photograph: Megan Carpentier

Names: Terry and Teresa Fitch
Age: 23 and declined to say
Location: Mansfield, Ohio
Occupation: “in between” and elementary school teacher
Voted for: Ted Cruz
Why? Teresa: “There’s so many [reasons]. Education, because I am a teacher... Reduced testing. We test way too much. A lot of it is state-mandated and the kids get tired of it. It’s hard on them.”
Terry: “We need to teach kids how to learn, not how to take the test.”

Five states are voting tonight and the Northern Marianas already gave their nine Republican delegates to Trump. The big winner-take-all Republican contests are finally here. Sanders is looking for an Ohio surprise. There’s magic in the air.

So what do we call it? We’ve already used Super Tuesday a couple times (at least, it seems).

Any ideas? WTA-Tuesday? Florida’s revenge? Can we work an acronym here?

Where’s Mencken when you need him?

Vox Pop: Clinton for ‘unity’ but ‘I love Trump too’

Name: Lucinda Clairvoyant

Age: 33

Location: Palm Beach

Voting for: Hillary Clinton

“I want unity because there is violence all over the world in communities affected by breakdown every day. We need a president of unity to decrease the heartache that people go through. Hillary Clinton has been around President Obama and she has foreign policy experience and can demonstrate a professional outlook.

“I also like her because she once wrote me a letter that made me feel special as a Christian. She seemed to know how I felt. On the internet I wrote back to her through the Holy Spirit. But I love Donald Trump too and think he would be a good candidate. I like him even though he’s not a Democrat. He knows how to use your money because he has experience from business.”

Florida county seeks extended voting time

With less than an hour to go before polls close in east Florida, voters are waiting to hear whether the governor will grant permission to extend polling hours in Orange County due to a ballot shortage there, writes the Guardian’s Lauren Gambino from West Palm Beach:

On Tuesday afternoon, Orange County election officials asked the governor to extend polling hours in the county by one hour – to 8pm. Polling stations in the western panhandle close then.

In a letter sent to Florida governor Rick Scott, Orange County elections supervisor Bill Cowles explained that the shortage was due to a computer glitch when the ballots were sent to the printer. It is unclear how many ballots were not printed, and how many are still needed.

Orange County incorporates 52 precincts, with shortages reported in Apopka, Ocoee, Maitland, Windermere and Belle Isle.

Updated

John Kasich’s most famous supporter makes out with his dogs somewhere on a staircase in has to be California.

And urges people to get out and vote!

(h/t @bencjacobs)

We’ve been talking with a lot of voters today, asking them about their top concerns, what they do and whom they voted for. You can find a stack of our earlier vox pop interviews – and many more goodies – in my colleague Scott Bixby’s live blog of the action earlier today:

And here’s a new voter interview:

Vox Pop: the retiree voting for Trump – and jobs

Name: Anthony Dangelo

Age: 66

Location: Tamarac, Florida

Occupation: Retired burglar alarm engineer

Voted for: Donald Trump

“That wall needs to be put up down there in Mexico because a lot of immigrants have been coming in and a lot of drugs are coming in which are killing 20-year-old kids up in Ohio, up in Oklahoma, killing kids all over. These kids have no jobs because of the last administration and they just sit there taking drugs.

“I have two children who went to college, I worked really hard to get them into that, paid for most of their way, and neither of them can get jobs that they should be working at. There’s a lot of richness here in this country but the money’s not moving and it seems the government is stifling business. My daughter’s waitressing on tables, she’s a smart girl and could get a good job but there’s nothing out there.

“I’m voting for Trump because he is not connected with what’s been going on the last few years in Washington. Republicans, Democrats, it’s a clique up there. They don’t want to deal with what the people really want. Trump doesn’t have to listen to people pulling his strings, he’ll work for the people. He raised some great kids, I hope he raises our country the same way.”

Updated

The exit poll temptation

It’s our custom to supply links to exit polling data decorated with the asterisk that the data do not represent results, and may in fact be contra-indicative of results.

But look at all the college grads that voted in the Republican race in Florida, according to exit polling. How will that play? It’s not a group that Donald Trump has been particularly strong with. (Trump is ahead in Florida polling averages by 20+ points.)

Incidentally MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki’s Twitter feed is a good place to find exit poll goodies.

The Guardian’s Lauren Gambino reports that a “realistic policies” gap measured on the Democratic side jibes with what she hears from voters (and she’s interviewed a lot of them – see a bounty of vox pop interviews here):

Updated

Hello and welcome to our continuing live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. Today’s big, again. Florida, Ohio and three more states are voting, with a potential for breathtaking twists in both nominating races.

Ohio and Florida will award a combined 165 Republican delegates in winner-take-all contests that could flip Donald Trump over the pole vault bar, hair streaming, should he win both. But if Ohio governor John Kasich succeeds in his home state – and he looks strong there – the GOP race appears set to remain competitive through June, at least.

Democratic hopeful Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, has predicted victory in Ohio, after he staged an upset win a week ago in neighboring Michigan. Hillary Clinton leads in the polls in Ohio, but her surprise loss in Michigan underscored how tenuous polling leads are.

The five states voting tonight: Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina.
The five states voting tonight: Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina. Photograph: The Guardian

The campaign of senator Marco Rubio is hanging by a thread, meanwhile, as he appears far behind in his home state, which he has framed as a must-win.

We’ll bring you results immediately as they land, reports from polling stations and coverage of the candidates’ victory-slash-misery speeches. Your job is to leave your predictions and break down the results in the comments so we may feature them here.

The first exit polls have just been published. Actual results will begin to arrive in under two hours – most Florida polls close at 7pm ET, Ohio and North Carolina close at 7.30pm ET and Illinois and Missouri follow at 8pm ET.

Here’s how the delegate races stand:

Republicans
Democrats

Buckle your seatbelts, as Kasich likes to say – and thank you for reading and taking part!

Updated

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