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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Oliver King

Election blogging - live here tonight

We're blogging through the night! Local elections would not normally keep most of Westminster and Fleet Street - and yes the political bloggers awake all night but tonight's poll is not only a massive public opinion poll on the three parties and their leaders but could determine how long Tony Blair stays in office.

The result could also radically effect the makeup of the cabinet - if its bad will Tony Blair clean the Augean stables? The reshuffle is predicted for either Friday or Monday.

Given that Labour's campaign started badly - remember Blair and Brown feuding and cash for honours? - and then got steadily worse culminating in last Wednesday's "triple whammy" of Charles Clarke's deportation blunders, John Prescott's affair and Patricia Hewitt's barracking by nurses - Labour, and Downing Street in particular, have the most to be nervous about tonight.

But this is also the first real test for David Cameron and his "compassionate Conservatism" - was hugging huskies in the middle of the campaign an electoral success? We'll find out tonight.

Sir Menzies Campbell has not had a great campaign so far despite the disaster afflicting Labour but could still have a good evening despite his own occasional lacklustre commons performance.

To judge how well or badly each party is doing read our two guides to the benchmark numbers (pdf) to look for as well as which councils could be interesting (pdf)

Some of Labour's "usual suspects" are already applying the makeup in preparation for their TV /Radio appearances tonight and tomorrow morning when their calls for Blair to go will reach crescendo level - regardless of the actual result. Some are already saying that Tony Blair is a "dead man walking", which is little like wishful thinking on their part.

What will be more interesting is the reaction from mainstream Labour MPs - the ones that don't make themselves heard very often. Will they restrain themselves tonight and tomorrow and not make the party's situation worse? Will they call for Clarke and Prescott's heads or even Tony Blair's?

The codewords to look out for are "timetable for an early transition" - something that Downing Street has been resisting. The last thing they want is the government to effectively stop functioning as every ministerial action is delayed until after the succession date in case Mr Brown doesn't approve.

So we'll be here to bring you all the action and reaction to events as they unfold. Put the kettle on - coffee is required.

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