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The Independent UK
The Independent UK
Politics
John Rentoul

Election 2017: Hung parliament? Tory win? Corbyn as PM? The six possible scenarios

Here are six possible scenarios that could emerge overnight between Thursday and Friday:

What is a majority?

The absolute majority matters in reporting the election tomorrow, because we are comparing with previous elections. In 2015 the Conservatives’ absolute majority was 12, the difference between the number of Conservative seats, 331, and all other parties, 319, in a House of Commons of 650.

The working majority matters to a Government trying to get its laws through Parliament: it excludes Sinn Fein MPs, who do not take their seats, and any vacancies. It was 17 when Parliament was dissolved. So Theresa May could lose eight seats and still have a working majority of one, if Sinn Fein wins five seats, one more than last time (the Conservatives would have 323 seats to 322 for all other parties).

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