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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
Politics
Andrew Sparrow, Claire Phipps and Nadia Khomami

Election 2015: Alex Salmond rules out SNP deal with Tories – as it happened

Salmond
Salmond Photograph: DYLAN MARTINEZ/REUTERS

Evening summary

  • Alex Salmond has ruled out any type of post-election deal between the SNP and Conservatives. In an interview with New Statesman editor Jason Cowley, the former first minister of Scotland said the SNP would vote down the Tories in a Queen’s speech, after which, under the [Fixed-Term] Parliaments Act, parties would have a two week period to form another government (See 5.05pm).

The Tories would have to go effectively straight for a vote of confidence, usually the Queen’s Speech…and we’d be voting against.

So if Labour joins us in that pledge, then that’s Cameron locked out.

  • Salmond also predicted that Danny Alexander, the Lib Dem chief secretary to the Treasury, and Douglas Alexander, Labour’s election strategy chair, will both lose their seats to his party.
  • Bob Neill, the Tory party deputy chairman, has condemned Alex Salmond for his comments and accused him of making a “deeply sinister” threat to try to force out the Conservatives and lead to the installation of a Labour government (see 8.38pm).

This is a deeply sinister threat from Alex Salmond, who would do whatever it took to put Ed Miliband in Downing Street and under his command. The policy demands he’s made public – higher taxes, uncontrolled immigration and uncertainty over Trident – would cause chaos for Britain. We just don’t know what else he would squeeze out of weak Ed Miliband.

  • Scottish ministers have claimed that UK immigration policy is failing Scotland, after data showed that nearly half of all migrants to Scotland have been educated to degree level or higher. Analysis of the 2011 census shows that 49% of the 369,000 immigrants who settled in Scotland held a degree – nearly twice the proportion of the population as a whole. Among migrants from within Europe, the proportion was 60%.
  • Another Ukip candidate, Tim Wilson, has quit the party in protest at “unforgivable racist abuse” from a senior MEP. This came shortly after Ukip installed Harriet Yeo as its new general election candidate for Folkestone and Hythe following the expulsion of the previous candidate over allegations of an inflated expenses claim.

That’s it from me this evening. Join us tomorrow bright and early for all the latest developments in the election campaign.

Updated

Is that not what happened?

BBC three’s Free Speech programme tonight gave young people the opportunity to “ask a Tory” about anything they wanted. Sam Gyimah MP, the education secretary, was in the hot seat and was joined by a panel including: Toby Young the associate editor of the Spectator, Apprentice star Luisa Zissman, and Ian Birrell the former Cameron speechwriter. Unfortunately, Cameron declined to appear, and Grant Shapps was also (rather conveniently) pulled from the programme.

The lack of any senior Tory party figures has left viewers unhappy.

Updated

If you’re feeling confused by the various upcoming TV debates, this might clear things up a bit.

Tories condemn Salmond's 'sinister' threat to install Miliband in No 10

Bob Neill, the Tory party deputy chairman, has condemned Alex Salmond for his comments about voting down a minority Tory government. As the Guardian’s Nicholas Watt and Severin Carrell report:

Alex Salmond was accused of making a “deeply sinister” threat to try to force out the Conservatives and lead to the installation of a Labour government in a post-election hung parliament using procedures that could involve no negotiations and no deal with Ed Miliband.

Bob Neill, the Conservative party deputy chairman, said:

Bob Neill

“This is a deeply sinister threat from Alex Salmond, who would do whatever it took to put Ed Miliband in Downing Street and under his command. The policy demands he’s made public – higher taxes, uncontrolled immigration and uncertainty over Trident – would cause chaos for Britain. We just don’t know what else he would squeeze out of weak Ed Miliband.”

And the Tories aren’t the only party criticising Salmond. The report continues:

Labour sources said Salmond was guilty of hypocrisy. In April 2007, three weeks before he formed the SNP’s minority government in Holyrood, Salmond insisted that the largest party had the right to form the government. Under his scenario outlined in the New Statesman, Cameron would be leader of the largest party.

Updated

Here’s more in-depth commentary on possible implications for David Cameron ruling out a third term.

Rafael Behr, the guardian’s political columnist, writes the exit talk will be Cameron’s eventual undoing, adding:

So, paradoxically, the prime minister made big news by saying something that was old news to the people who decide what is news. To make the non-news even newsier, Cameron went so far as to name contenders in the succession race – Theresa May, George Osborne, Boris Johnson – as if no one had noticed them limbering up next to the running track.

Douglas Alexander, Labour’s election strategist, has written that Cameron’s admission is far more revealing than he would want it to be in an opinion piece for the Guardian:

Being prime minister is not a job to be performed with an eye for the exit. Tories might be saying their leader has been commendably honest, but privately they will be cringing. This was certainly not on Lynton Crosby’s post-budget grid.

The truth is that although this remark reveals a lot about Cameron, what is still more revealing is his record in government – the very one he refused to defend in a head-to-head debate with Ed Miliband.

Cameron’s departure plans are a “foolish fantasy” according to the Guardian’s editorial.

Finally here’s Steve Bell, the Guardian’s cartoonist, on Cameron’s announcement that he will not be serving a third term as PM:

Copyright Steve Bell 2015/All Rights Reserved e.mail: belltoons@ntlworld.com tel: 00 44 (0)1273 500664ELECTION POSTER2010BILLBOARDDAVID CAMERONCONDOMPINK RUBBERINTERVIEWBBCHALF BAKEDRESIGNATIONBECAUSE I'M BOREDDISENGAGEDCASUALRELAXEDKITCHENBUTCHER'S SHOPCOTSWOLDSCHIPPING NORTON SETJEREMY CLARKSONRULE HIMSELF OUTTHIRD TERMWOMENVOTERS 12 BILLION POUNDNON-SPECIFICWELFARE CUTSVAT INCREASETAXATIONHELP THE BETTER OFFSPENDINGRESCUERECOVERYBLAMEIT'S ALL LABOUR'S FAULTSPRINGTIMEPERMANENT AUSTERITYLEANER PUBLIC SECTORCUTSSLASHPUBLIC EXPENDITURESPENDING CUTSCUTTINGBULLINGDON CLUBUNIFORMTAILCOATBOW TIEYELLOW WAISTCOAT#LONGTERMPLANMAN BOOBSSOFTER SIDEWE CAN'T GO ON LIKE THISI'LL CUT THE DEFICIT NOT THE NHSDOGCOCKING HIS LEG
Copyright Steve Bell 2015.

Updated

Channel 4’s Jon Laurence has been compiling the best quotes from the NHS debate. Follow the conversation on Twitter with the hashtag #yournhs.

The Conservative’s Jeremy Hunt, Labour’s Andy Burnham, Lib Dem’s Norman Lamb, and Ukip’s Mark Hanson have appeared on Channel 4 News to discuss health care.

The politicians were asked about today’s report that UK cancer survival rates trail 10 years behind other European countries.

Jeremy Hunt:

Hunt

I lost my dad to cancer. There isn’t anyone here who doesn’t have a loved one they’ve lost.

We have struggled to catch up with European diagnosis rates.

We’re now doing half a million more cancer tests here.

I’m sure there’s lots more to do but I think we’re beginning to turn the tide.

We are missing waiting targets but it’s because we have had a dramatic increase in cancer sufferers.

Andy Burnham:

Burnham

The report also says this country made the biggest gains in cancer diagnosis over the years.

I would acknowledge there’s further to go. The NHS as a whole last year has missed the cancer treatment target. We want to have more testing capacity in primary care.

The conversation then moved onto A&E waiting times.

Hunt:

We’ve had real pressure in A&E departments. I did part of a shift in an A&E department here in Watford, I saw something that stayed with me. There was a 90 year old lady with dementia who came in, she couldn’t talk, the doctors and nurses were trying valiantly to do what they could for her, but the truth is she shouldn’t have been there, we should have had better care in the community. If I stay on as health secretary, the biggest change we will see is a dramatic change in the care available in communities.

What our organisational changes did was take money from the back office to hire 9 and a half thousand more doctors and 8 and a half thousand more nurses.

Norman Lamb:

Lamb

We’re spending more on the NHS now than we did at the start of the parliament. Simons Stevens [NHS England chief executive] says that by 2020 there will be a funding gap of £8 million, the Lib Dems have committed to addressing that gap.

All parties should come together to set up a non-partisan organisation to ensure the NHS is sustainable.

Burnham:

I warned both of these gentlemen if you cut social care it will bring down A&E.

Mark Hanson:

We might have staff shortages without immigration, but what about the general practitioners? Why do they not have surgeries where people can be seen in the community? It’s difficult for some of them to get appointments that they have to come to casualty.

Hunt:

General practice is the key, this is about people being able to see their gps in the evenings and weekends.

Burnham:

They removed the 48 hour guarantee we had. They’ve spent a whole parliament disinvesting in health care.

It is pointed out that the Tories have actually increased NHS funding.

Burnham:

I’m talking about social care. There’ll be even deeper cuts in the next parliament. The cuts have caused the A&E crisis, deeper cuts will entrench that crisis.

Hunt:

The budget said if we stick to the plan by the end of next parliament we will see the biggest spend on public services in a decade. The biggest risk to NHS funding now is if we tear up the plan.

What a headache.

Updated

It’s not all doom and gloom for Ukip. Earlier today, the Telegraph reported that Queen guitarist Brian May was considering supporting Ukip candidates “if they uphold his ambition of acting “decently, transparently and accountably” once they are elected.”

Pleasing news for some.

Another Ukip election candidate has quit. As the Mail reports, Tim Wilson quit the party in protest at “unforgivable racist abuse” from a senior MEP.

Tim Wilson rounded on Mr Farage for ignoring the widespread condemnation of Scotland MEP David Coburn, who recently compared a Muslim minister in the Scottish Government [Humza Yousaf] to convicted terrorist Abu Hamza.

In his resignation letter, Mr Wilson, who was due to stand for UKIP in South Northamptonshire – and was tipped to come second behind the Tories – claimed he has been ‘forbidden to speak about Islam favourably’ by party bosses.

Updated

The Spectator’s Alex Massie has written about Scottish nationalism, which he calls “a faith-based initiative, creating its own reality”.

Back in 2004 the American journalist Ron Suskind, writing about ‘faith and certainty’ in George W Bush’s White House, quoted a senior official (generally believed to be Karl Rove) who told him: ”’We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality — judiciously, as you will — we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.”’

Now, Alex Salmond is not George W Bush and nor is Nicola Sturgeon. But there is a sense in which the Yes movement considers themselves history’s actors and many Scots would agree that the independence cause has created its own reality. One based on faith as much, perhaps more, than reason.

Want to know more about Cameron’s constituency? We have a report from Chadlington, “the chocolate-box cluster of stone cottages close to Chipping Norton where the Camerons spend their weekends”.

Eiderdown clouds

It includes discussion of the prime minister’s charm by a suspicious neighbour:

“I think he’s a pretty clever guy when it comes to being smooth, and if he doesn’t want to answer a question there are about 28 ways of not doing it.

“He knows what he’s doing.”

Updated

Here’s our story about George Osborne refusing five times to rule out VAT rise.

During a session of the Treasury committee, Osborne was pressed by two Labour MPs, John Mann and Andy Love, to give an answer. Mann, the MP for Bassetlaw, even tried to hand the chancellor a Cornish pasty to give him strength to answer the question in an apparent reference to the 2012 budget in which Osborne tried to raise VAT on hot baked goods before being forced into a U-turn.

However, Osborne refused to give a categorical guarantee, and instead repeated his position that he has no plans to increase VAT.

In response, Labour have released a video chronicling the history of Tory VAT increases.

Our political correspondent Rowena Mason has written about Ukip’s announcement of its new candidate in Folkestone, Harriet Yeo.

Nigel Farage has named a former Labour politician as a parliamentary candidate for Ukip in Folkestone after its previous choice for the seat was expelled in an expenses scandal.

Harriet Yeo, a councillor and ex-trade unionist who left Labour earlier this year, will replace Janice Atkinson, a high-profile MEP. Atkinson was kicked out of Ukip on Tuesday following allegations a member of her staff tried to get an inflated bill for a meal in a restaurant.

Yeo had previously said she would support Ukip at the next election and spoke at the party’s spring conference but had not declared she was a signed-up member.

Speaking at the Grand hotel in the town in Kent alongside Farage, Yeo said: “I’m so proud to be able to represent Folkestone and Hythe for Ukip.

“I was born in Kent, I live in Kent and work in Kent. This county needs a party that will put the people of Kent first. We don’t have that at the moment.

Meanwhile, journalist Michael Crick makes an interesting observation about Yeo’s social media profile.

ukip
ukip Photograph: ukip

Remember, home is where the tweets are, Harriet.

Updated

A statement from the Tories says Alex Salmond will “sabotage the democratic will of the British people” if he makes Ed Miliband Prime Minister.

As expected, the Tories are lashing out at Alex Salmond.

Updated

From the old to the young. This afternoon, Channel 4 hosted a live event in partnership with Twitter and Channel 4 News’ Krishnan Guru-Murthy called #IfWeRanThings. It was centred on young people telling those in charge what they would change if they ran the country - “from more diversity on TV to making young people’s issues a priority”.

Here are a collection of tweets from the event:

The question is, will the event encourage more young people to register to vote? Perhaps all parliamentary hopefuls should follow the Liberal Democrat Parliamentary Candidate for Hackney North and Stoke Newington, Simon de Deney’s lead, and try a new approach to political campaigning.

Cameron being heckled has somewhat overshadowed Labour’s address. Here is an extract from Labour MP Liz Kendall’s speech to Age UK - which can be read in full over at the New Statesman now - just after Cameron’s moment in the spotlight.

Liz Kendall MP

Labour will build up to two hundred thousand decent houses a year, freeze energy bills so they can only go down and not up, and ensure older people in poverty can cut their bills further with energy efficiency improvements.

You say we must stop scams, rip offs and discrimination against older people in financial services.

Labour will act on legal loan sharks and rip-off pension charges, and make sure that there’s proper protection for people who cash in their annuities.

You say we all deserve a retirement with enough support to live well.

Labour will make sure those who have worked hard, contributed to society and played their part in our nation’s success get a fair deal in retirement – including by guaranteeing the pensions triple lock.

Updated

Sketches about Cameron’s Age UK speech are coming in thick and fast. Our writer John Crace called it a reminder of Cameron’s political mortality.

The conference slogan was “a great place to grow older”. Though not for David Cameron, who visibly aged five years in the space of 30 minutes.

It didn’t help that Cameron was 10 minutes late; keeping pensioners waiting is never a good idea as it suggests you think they haven’t got anything better to do. “I’ve been taking my 175th cabinet meeting,” he explained; no one seemed quite as impressed by this as Dave. Dave struggled on. He understood old people. He was a man who believed in keeping his promises to old people. He was a man who didn’t think old people should be patronised. He really, really loved old people. The feeling wasn’t entirely reciprocated.

The Daily Telegraph’s Michael Deacon called it a hubbub of unrest.

The speech passed without incident. His problems began during the subsequent Q&A, just as he was breezing his way through an answer about NHS agency staff.

“Excuse me!” cut in the man who’d asked him about it. “You haven’t answered my question!”

Mildly startled – as if a sleepy old tabby he was stroking had hissed at him – Mr Cameron tried not answering the question in a different way. But the heckle seemed to have awoken something in the audience. There was a growing hubbub of unrest.

“Rubbish!” shouted a voice. “Answer the question!” harrumphed another. “I am, sir!” blurted the Prime Minister. The audience didn’t seem convinced. A man with white hair sat irately shaking his stick.

Updated

Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy has pledged to set up a £175m “anti-poverty fund” in Scotland using cash freed up by abolishing the bedroom tax in the UK.

Jim Murphy

Is it enough to win back ex-Labour voters?

Updated

More news from Scotland. Scottish ministers have claimed that UK immigration policy is failing Scotland, after data showed that nearly half of all migrants to Scotland have been educated to degree level or higher.

Humza Yousaf, the Scottish government’s minister for Europe and international development, said the figures quashed the myth that migrants were an economic burden – a view held by a majority of Scots, according to a poll.

He said the figures underlined the case for overseas students to be given back the right to apply for post-study work visas, abolished by the UK government, to help Scotland’s economy and skills base to grow.

Yes it does, NoSuddenMovements. And couldn’t we all.

User avatar for NoSuddenMovements

Does the blog stay open all evening now? I don't think I have the stamina for this all the way to the election. I could do with a Michael Green to fill in for me sometimes.

The Independent’s John Mullin writes that the Scots are giving Westminster a taste of their own medicine.

This is politics way beyond the ken of the London bubble. The recognised rules are out of the window. The SNP may indeed have lost the referendum, but despite its economic case for independence now lying in shreds, its winning hand just gets stronger.

SNP membership has increased four-fold to 100,000. The opinion polls are consistent: Scottish Labour, currently on 41 seats, crucial to Mr Miliband’s chances of becoming PM, faces evisceration. Mr Salmond – leading the charge back to Westminster – may have as many as 55 colleagues, out of a total of 59 Scottish MPs.

Little wonder, then, that the SNP is pressing home its advantage. It has moved the rhetoric on once-in-a-generation; it no longer declines to vote in the Commons on English matters; above all, it is revelling in playing mind games with its opponents.

Salmond says the historic figure he most identifies with is Nelson Mandela. Reactions?

And this Tweet from Sunny Hundal, which is doing the rounds, makes a valid point. Is Salmond as different to Cameron as he likes to believe?

Have the SNP played their hand too early? Apparently Labour thinks so.

More from Salmond’s interview:

I have no idea [if Ed Miliband will still be Labour leader]. But somebody will be. I mean, one of Labour’s big fibs – there are a number – but one of them has been that the party with the most seats forms the government. No, the party that can command a majority in the House of Commons forms the government as Ramsay MacDonald did [in 1924] . . . so it’s the party that has the majority. And the Parliament Act reinforced that, because it limits the ability of the incumbent to dictate an early election, and puts more power in the hands of parliament and indeed in the hands of your [party].

Salmond says that if he was asked by a journalist whether he would consider a deal with Cameron if the prime minister offered him everything he wanted.

I said no. He was obviously upset. The reason for me is, why on earth would you trust somebody who comes up to Scotland, makes promises, and then saunters out and says, ‘Sorry, I forgot to mention about this English vote thing in tandem [with more devolution to Scotland].’ I mean, that’s as bad as you get. Bad politics has created a fantastic opening for us to take matters forward.

Salmond adds that he believes that Labour’s Douglas Alexander in Paisley and the Lib Dems’ Danny Alexander in Inverness will both surrender their seats to the SNP.

Our Scotland correspondent Severin Carrell has some words on Salmond’s announcement.

Alex Salmond has threatened to force a minority Tory government out of office by voting against David Cameron’s first Queen’s speech, challenging Labour to back the Scottish National party in an audacious attempt to force Cameron out of power.

The former first minister of Scotland predicted the SNP will win “a barrel-load” of seats in the May general election, allowing his party to work with Labour to destabilise a Tory minority government, forcing Cameron to stand down.

And Salmond implied that under those circumstances, the SNP could force Labour into agreeing a formal coalition – an option that Ed Miliband has now twice ruled out and one that Nicola Sturgeon, Salmond’s successor as SNP leader, has also played down.

Ed Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon
Ed Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon.

What Salmond does not acknowledge, however, is that Cameron could secure his minority government or form a coalition with Northern Ireland’s DUP or Ukip, and where would the Lib Dems stand on that kind of challenge? And would Miliband risk unseating the party which had won the most seats in an alliance with the SNP?

Updated

Afternoon summary


  • Ed Balls has claimed that George Osborne’s refusal five times at the Commons Treasury committee to rule out raising VAT shows that the Conservatives intend to do this. (See 3.53pm.) Osborne was challenged on this by the Labour MP John Mann, who even offered him a pasty during the hearing. In the hearing Osborne retaliated by saying that Balls’ decision to rule out an increase in VAT suggested that he was planning a national insurance rise.

Ed Balls might be ruling out a rise in VAT but he can’t rule out a rise in national insurance and already plans to hike corporation tax.

Osborne also told the committee that the bank levy was “here to stay”, implying that it would not be repealed when the economy recovered.

  • Alex Salmond, the former SNP leader, has predicted that Danny Alexander, the Lib Dem chief secretary to the Treasury, and Douglas Alexander, Labour’s election strategy chair, will both lose their seats to his party. In an interview with the New Statesman he said the SNP would gain “a barrel load”. He also confirmed that the SNP would not do a deal with the Tories. (See 5.05pm.)
  • Ukip has installed Harriet Yeo, a high-profile defector from Labour, as its new general election candidate for Folkestone and Hythe following the expulsion of the previous candidate over allegations of an inflated expenses claim.
  • Francis Maude, the Conservative Cabinet Office minister, has criticised Vince Cable, the Lib Dem business secretary, for defending the Guardian’s coverage of the Edward Snowden revelations. In 2013 Cable said the Guardian was “entirely correct and right” and “courageous” to print details from secret NSA files leaked Snowden. Asked about those comments in the Commons this afternoon, during a statement on cyber security, Maude replied:
Francis Maude

I happened to be visiting GCHQ shortly after he made those remarks. People who work at GCHQ do fantastic work. It is a real centre of brilliant expertise and knowledge. They do difficult work away from the public gaze and any comments which seem to undermine what they do in the service of national security really has to be very strongly deprecated.

That’s all from me for today.

My colleague Nadia Khomami will be taking over for the rest of the evening.

Updated

Alex Salmond: SNP will not negotiate with Tories in Scotland

Alex Salmond has ruled out any type of post-election deal between the SNP and Conservatives. In an interview with New Statesman editor Jason Cowley, the former first minister of Scotland is clear on what would happen if the Tories tried to form a minority government.

Alex Salmond

The Tories would have to go effectively straight for a vote of confidence, usually the Queen’s Speech…and we’d be voting against.

So if Labour joins us in that pledge, then that’s Cameron locked out.

Under the [Fixed-Term] Parliaments Act, that Westminster’s parliament passed but nobody seems to have read, you’d then have a two week period to form another government, and of course you want to form another government because this might be people’s only chance to form another government.

Current polls show that a Tory-Lib Dem coalition will fall short of a majority. With the SNP ruled out, Cameron would have to form a four-party coalition with the Lib Dems, DUP and Ukip. Never mind a third term, a second term is looking pretty difficult for the prime minister right now.

polls graphic

Updated

Here’s a short afternoon reading list.

On the assumption that the debates were going ahead, Miliband referred to them often. During the recent internal tensions over whether Labour should spend billions of pounds reducing student fees, Miliband insisted that he needed the policy partly as ammunition, and a protective shield, in the television debates. He has also wasted several weekends rehearsing for the debates ...

Predictably, a compromise was announced at the weekend, in which the television Question Time format, formulaic in its balanced audiences and confected anger, would replace one of the planned debates.

The two potential Prime Ministers will not appear in a one-to-one. Cameron has outwitted everyone. He will no longer be empty-chaired. There will be no conventional debates. Such is Miliband’s faith in the format that he has still agreed to take part in one debate with all the leaders except Cameron and Clegg. But he misunderstands the constraints of such events. He needed the space to develop arguments and show the connection between ideas and policy. He will not get it.

When some Labour MPs ask warily who it was who advised Miliband to take part in this particular silly debate with other leaders of smaller parties, there is an easy answer. Miliband chose to do so without hesitation. But this is a very poor substitute for what he assumed would be the set piece events of the election. He has lost a game-changing opportunity and one that might have made sense of his low media profile until now.

Needless to say, the Conservatives shouldn’t concede deals with any party on any terms. For me, giving away PR for local elections would be too high a price to pay, though it would admittedly give the Party an electoral foothold in some northern urban areas from which it has long been excluded.

I feel the same about the Mansion Tax. But I woudn’t go to the wire to oppose new, higher council tax bands for the most expensive properties, as suggested on this site by Mark Field. As he wrote, “here is a vast difference between a £2 million flat in Pimlico and a home valued at £60 million at One Hyde Park”.

Here’s the ITN/Telegraph video of David Cameron being heckled at the Age UK conference. It reveals the heckling better than the video at the top of the page.

Updated

Tyrie ends the hearing saying the committee is grateful to Osborne for the fact he has always attended its meeting.

That wasn’t hugely exciting, but I’ll post a summary of the key bits soon.

Back in the Treasury committee, Andrew Tyrie, the chairman, asks about the “pork barrel” aspects to the budget - measures that will help marginal constituencies. He mentions decisions that will benefit Danny Alexander’s constituency.

Andrew Tyrie MP, Chair of the Treasury Select Committee. Photo by Linda Nylind. 18/4/2013.

Osborne says that Alexander has been a hard-working colleague, and that it is not often that the Highlands gets a minister in the Treasuy.

On the rural fuel rebate, which will benefit Alexander’s constituents, he says he would like to have extended it, but is constrained by EU rules.

(By the way, this Spectator blog is a terrific guide to all the pork in the budget.)

Updated

Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, has issued a statement following George Osborne’s exchanges with John Mann earlier in the hearing. (See 2.38am.)

George Osborne has let the cat out of the bag. He has repeatedly refused to rule out another VAT rise if the Tories win the election. Five times he was asked to make a cast iron guarantee and five times he failed to do so. It’s now clear that the Tories are planning to raise VAT again.

We’ve all heard the same old empty words about not having any plans before. It’s what the Tories said before the last election – and then they raised it within weeks of polling day. And it’s the same words Tory Chancellors have used before elections for the last forty years.

Mann has been tweeting about his exchanges too.

Osborne tells the Treasury committee that his Help to Buy ISAs will lead to more properties being bought by first-time buyers, and fewer by people doing buy-to-let. That is something he would be happy to see, he says.

Construction At A Bellway Plc House Building Site Ahead Of Earnings

Updated

Back in the Treasury committee, Jesse Norman, the Conservative MP, asks Osborne if he is worried about his pension reforms leading to a fresh mis-selling scandal.

Author and Conservative Party parliamentary candidate for Hereford and South Herefordshire Jesse Norman at the Fabian Society Conference 'Fairness Doesn't Happen By Chance' at Imperial College, Kensington, London

Osborne says we now have a powerful consumer regulator. He believes a good package of measures is in place to protect pensioners.

Citizens Advice will be offering people face to face advice, he says.

Updated

Kenneth Clarke once said “you can always do a deal with an Ulsterman”. In the Independent today, the DUP MP Ian Paisley names the price for such a deal. The DUP would support a minority government in return for hundreds of millions of pounds for Northern Ireland, he said.

On the Daily Politics Jeffrey Donaldson, another DUP MP, was asked which party the DUP would prefer to back in the event of a hung parliament. He said that although he was more inclined to back the Tories, he would not commit himself.

MAGHERALIN, NOTHERN IRELAND - APRIL 21: Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Leader Dr Ian Paisley (L) chats with Jeffrey Donaldson MLA for Lagan Valley during the launch of their election manifesto at Edenmore Golf and Country Club on April, 2005 in Magheralin, Nothern Ireland. Paisley portrayed the election as the ultimate political battle between the DUP and Sinn Fein. (Photo by Paul McErlane/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Dr Ian Paisley;Jeffrey Donaldsonpoliticsvotesvoteelectionspoliticianpolitical

I’m not going to answer that question. Safe to say that I sit in the Council of Europe parliamentary assembly, I’m on the Conservative group so naturally my tendencies are towards those kinds of policies. At the end of the day the DUP is very clear we will act in the national interest, we will do what’s best for the United Kingdom and we will also respect the wishes of the electorate of the United Kingdom.

I’ve taken the quote from PoliticsHome.

Updated

The British Election Study has published a blog today highlighting research saying the voters are sceptical about the Conservative party’s record.

Here’s an excerpt:

BES Co-Director Professor Jane Green from The University of Manchester finds less than 20 per cent of voters see an improvement in the Tory’s record on immigration, the NHS, crime, education and cost of living. And only just over 20 per cent of voters see themselves as personally better off.

According to the figures, only around 6% think the NHS is getting better and 3% think immigration is getting lower.

The British Election Study is managed by a team based at The Universities of Manchester, Oxford and Nottingham. It is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council.

A sample of around 16,000 respondents were interviewed between 6-13 March 2015.

Professor Green said: “What is well known is that the national economic recovery is an electoral asset for the Conservatives.

“However, what isn’t known is that the Tories have much work to do if they are to convince voters that a range of key policies are working.”

Using a range of survey and opinion polls, Professor Green and Professor Will Jennings from Southampton University also show voters hardly distinguish between the parties on their competence overall.

That could be more bad news for the Conservatives, who would benefit by convincing voters they are a more competent party in general than Labour.

Professor Jennings said: “Despite the claims of the Conservatives that they offer ‘competence over chaos’, they do not have a clear advantage on competence with the electorate.”

Updated

Rushanara Ali, the Labour MP, has another go trying to get Osborne to specify what his £12bn welfare cuts will involve.

Rushanara Ali.

She does not get very far. Osborne says he has already indicated the “mix” he will use to achieve his cuts. The Conservatives have gone “very considerably further” than any other party in saying how they will be achieved, he claims.

Updated

Osborne says bank levy 'here to stay'

Osborne says the bank levy will be “here to stay”.

  • Osborne says the bank levy will be a permanent tax, not a temporary one.

John Mann, the Labour MP, asks Osborne for a cast-iron guarantee that he won’t increase VAT.

Osborne says there is no need for him to raise VAT.

Mann says Osborne’s answers are more Bullingdon than Bassetlaw. In Bassetlaw they like straight answers, he says. He says he has a pasty here for Osborne to give him sustenance.

Mann asks, twice more, if Osborne will give a cast-iron guarantee that he won’t put up VAT.

Osborne gives the same answer. His plans don’t require it, he says. It is Labour that would have to put up tax.

Danny Alexander.
Danny Alexander.

The Lib Dems are running a similar attack line against Labour. This is the statement that Danny Alexander, the Lib Dem chief secretary to the Treasury, put out about Ed Balls’s speech. (See 11.45am.)

Labour have no credibility on the economy. Ed Balls might be ruling out a rise in VAT but he can’t rule out a rise in National Insurance and already plans to hike corporation tax.

Last time out, Labour crashed the economy, increased taxes on jobs and raised taxes on the poorest by scrapping the 10p income tax rate.

In contrast, we are restoring the economy to health and have strong growth with record employment. And we have a track record of cutting income tax for millions of working people.

Updated

Osborne says Labour would put up national insurance

Andy Love asks Osborne if he will rule out a VAT increase.

Osborne says his plans do not involve that.

He says Ed Balls’ speech today, ruling out an increase in VAT, suggests Labour is planning to put up national insurance.

  • Osborne says Labour would put up national insurance.

Back in the Treasury committee Labour’s Andy Love has just asked Osborne to explain where the Tories would find their proposed £12bn welfare cuts. Osborne sidestepped the question, just citing his call for a freeze in working-age benefits.

Michael Portillo

Michael Portillo, the former Conservative cabinet minister, told Radio 5 Live that David Cameron’s decision to rule out a third term was “bizarre”.

I think it is bizarre and it has occupied the last day’s news. It may even occupy another day’s news - I don’t know. And with only about 44 days to go until the election, if any other member of the government had taken up the news with an irrelevance like this, I think the prime minister would have been very cross.

When you play chess you have to consider the next two moves, and I don’t think he did. There is no point setting off on this wild goose chase in the middle of an election campaign.

Updated

Harriet Yeo.
Harriet Yeo.

Ukip has announced that Harriet Yeo, the former Labour NEC chair who defected to the party, will be its candidate in Folkestone and Hythe following the expulsion of Janice Atkinson over allegations of an inflated expenses claim.

Updated

Osborne says, if Greece left, that would establish the fact that a country could leave the euro. The markets would then seek to test other countries. Britain knows about this from its ERM experience, he says.

George Osborne questioned on the budget by the Treasury committee

George Osborne, the chancellor, is giving evidence to the Treasury committee about the budget.

Q: Shouldn’t Greece leave the Eurozone? It cannot recover while it is in the euro.

Osborne says he did not think Greece should join the euro. But if it were to leave that would cause huge disruption. The risk of Greece leaving is rising. It could happen by accident. He does not think that is a likely outcome, but it could happen.

George Osborne at the Treasury committee
George Osborne at the Treasury committee Photograph: Parliament TV

Updated

Jamie Reed, a shadow health minister, says David Cameron was heckled at the Age UK conference because because people don’t trust him with the NHS. He has put out this statement.

David Cameron cannot shake off his betrayal of the NHS and older people’s care services. Under him, people are waiting a week or more for GP appointments, A&Es are in crisis and hundreds of thousands of vulnerable older people have lost social care support.

The NHS can’t afford the Tories’ plan for deeper care cuts in the next Parliament. David Cameron has broken his promises on the NHS and has proven he can’t be trusted with it.

The NHS as we know it can’t survive five more years of the Tories. Labour has a better plan to invest £2.5bn extra a year in a Time to Care fund - on top of Tory spending plans - to fund new staff, including 20,000 more nurses and 8,000 more GPs.

Lunchtime summary

  • David Cameron has been heckled by members of the audience at an Age UK rally. He faced several interruptions when he spoke at the event in London, despite the fact that pensioners have been protected more than any other demographic by coalition policies. The hecklers were criticising Cameron primarily for his record over the NHS and social care. The protests were embarrassing, but not as awkward for Cameron as the barracking that Tony Blair received at a Women’s Institute event. This chart, from an IFS briefing last week, shows how the over-60s (yellow line) have done much better in terms of income increases than those aged 31 to 59 (purple line) or those aged 22 to 30 (blue line).
IFS chart
IFS chart Photograph: IFS

I am taking absolutely nothing for granted.

My entire focus is on the next 44 days and the general election, which will decide which team runs this country for the next five years.

I want that to be me and my team but the alternative is it is Ed Miliband and his team, and that is the focus that I have in the days ahead.

What I did in my kitchen is I gave a very straight answer to a very straight question and I think that people will understand that - that saying you want to serve a full second term for a full five years is a very reasonable, sensible thing to say.

So I think we should just focus on the issues at the election about who do you want to run the country for the next five years.

  • Balls has said he would resign before implementing a VAT increase and signalled that Labour will go into the election also promising not to raise the basic or higher rate of income tax. (See 11.45am.)
Shadow chancellor Ed Balls
  • Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, has told MPs that two Chinook helicopters and an upgraded surface-to-air missile system will be part of a new defence package for the Falkland Islands. As the Press Association reports, some £180m will be spent over the next decade to update and improve the defence of the islands, with work including an improved harbour and a new primary school for service personnel’s children. Deployed service personnel and civilians will stay broadly the same at about 1,200 people, Mr Fallon told MPs in a Commons statement.
  • Labour has won the toss to decide who goes first on Thursday when Jeremy Paxman interviews Cameron and Ed Miliband and decided that Miliband will go second. “We will have the opportunity to respond to Cameron’s false claims,” said a Labour source.
  • Boris Johnson has said a parallel system of Sharia law is “absolutely unacceptable” in the UK. Speaking on LBC, the Conservative mayor of London said he was opposed to “a Sharia system running in parallel with UK justice”.

That is unacceptable to me. Everybody must be equal under the law, and everybody must obey the same law. That is absolutely cast-iron. I take grave exception to some of the support I see sometimes - and from clerics in the Church of England who’ve come out in favour of this, I’ve noticed, and said we should be a little bit indulgent of this.

It’s an interesting fact that we have some clerical fossils still in our legislature. Don’t forget we have bishops sitting by right in our upper house. The separation of church and state is not perhaps as thorough-going in this country as you might like to think.

The point is that the idea of a parallel system of law, a parallel judicature, people making the laws holding to a different system, is absolutely unacceptable, it’s alien to our traditions. I won’t have it in London and I’m worried sometimes by the faint bat-squeaks of support that I hear for that idea even from clerics in the Church of England.

Asked if the Jewish Beth Din court system would “have to go”, Johnson replied: “Yes, absolutely. Sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.” He then clarified his position, saying he accepted that Jewish couples could go to a Beth Din to seek sanction for their divorce, but added: “It cannot substitute for UK civil proceedings.”

  • Johnson has said he wants Jeremy Clarkson to be remain as a Top Gear presenter.

I’m instinctively pro-Clarkson, basically because he is one of those guys who somehow fuels lefty indignation, whatever he does. I have an automatic presumption of innocence in his case.

  • Janice Atkinson MEP has said she will fight the decision to expel her from Ukip following allegations her chief of staff inflated an expenses claim.

Updated

Today was the last meeting of cabinet before the general election.

A spokesperson for the prime minister said that David Cameron and Nick Clegg took the opportunity to thank all of those who have served in cabinet since May 2010. There were special mentions for William Hague, Francis Maude and Don Foster, who are standing down as MPs.

“The prime minister and deputy prime minister each offered their cabinet colleagues a small gift,” said the spokesperson.

Eric Pickles, secretary of state for communities and local government, shared a picture of a bottle of specially made “co-ale-ition” beer, made by the Wychwood Brewery in David Cameron’s constituency of Witney.

Conservative party chairman Grant Shapps tweeted a picture of the bottle’s label which features a photograph of the coalition cabinet and the following description:

An unconventional pairing: this experimental beer has astonished doubters and exceeded expectations. Time for some creative thinking with this carefully crafted beer, hints of oak and zesty lemon deliver a truly distinctive, refreshing flavour that lasts the distance.

Today’s was the 175th meeting of cabinet since the beginning of this parliament, including “away day” visits to Aberdeen, Cardiff, Bradford and Birmingham.

David Cameron

In his speech to the Age UK conference, David Cameron set out the Conservative party’s offer to pensioners. Here’s the key extract, from his peroration.

Pensions that are rising ...

... an NHS budget that’s protected...

... free benefits – protected...

... dementia research – invested in...

... new homes built for the young...

... taxes cut for the hardworking...

... real security in our economy.

All this is on the ballot paper.

Updated

Here’s Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary, leaving cabinet with a bottle of the co-ale-ition handed out by David Cameron. (See 11.53am.)

Philip Hammond leaving cabinet with a bottle of beer by Wychwood Brewery of Witney that was given to cabinet members after attending the final cabinet meeting of this parliament.
Philip Hammond leaving cabinet with a bottle of beer by Wychwood Brewery of Witney that was given to cabinet members after attending the final cabinet meeting of this parliament. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Cameron does seem to have kept his sense of humour throughout his Age UK encounter.

Cameron says ruling out third term was 'sensible'

And this is what David Cameron said when asked about his comment about not serving a third term.

  • Cameron says ruling out a third term was “reasonable” and “sensible”.

Here is more on the Cameron heckling.

Atticus Beaterband (whoever he is) has a point.

My colleague John Plunkett says Labour has won the toss to decide who goes first when Jeremy Paxman interviews Ed Miliband and David Cameron on Thursday. He has sent me this.

Ed Miliband wins! The coin toss, that is, to decide whether he or David Cameron will be the first to be grilled by Jeremy Paxman on Channel 4 and Sky News on Thursday.

Miliband won the right to choose, but it remains to be seen whether he will go first or second. Whoever goes second will have the advantage (presumably) of listening to their rival’s answers.

But the production team has no plans for a Mr and Mrs style box, complete with headphones and piped music, to prevent them from hearing the other’s interview.

Along with the Paxman interview, questions will be put by a studio audience, moderated by Sky News anchor, Kay Burley, in the first of the pre-election TV events.

My colleague Nicholas Watt is at the Age UK event. Here’s his assessment of how serious the Cameron heckling is.

It seems the Age UK audience has a sense of humour.

Here is some more on the heckling.

Cameron heckled at Age UK conference

David Cameron is being heckled at the Age Uk conference.

This is all I’ve got on this so far, so I don’t know how serious this is. It may be a relatively slight incident.

Inflation falls to 0%: what does it mean?

The Guardian’s economics editor, Larry Elliot, has picked apart this morning’s announcement that the UK’s inflation rate is at 0%. The Tories say this is proof their economic strategy is working, while Ed Balls just said the opposite.

Britain is on the cusp of a period of deflation. It is the first time on record that inflation, measured by the consumer prices index, has hit zero, since the measure was created in 1989. This has three implications, two of them obvious, one less easy to assess.

The first is that living standards will rise. Average earnings are growing by just less than 2% a year, so with prices not rising at all people will find their wages and salaries go further.

The second implication is that there is likely to be a further delay before the Bank of England raises interest rates. The latest fall in inflation came as no surprise to Threadneedle Street but its nine-strong monetary policy committee is going to be in no hurry to raise the cost of borrowing.

That’s because it will want to see what zero inflation does to wage bargaining. At the moment, it is assumed that the fall in the cost of living is temporary and that inflation will pick up later this year. But it would be a different story if low inflation led to less generous pay settlements. If that were to happen, deflation could become tough to shift, as has been the case in Japan.

Earlier my colleague Claire Phipps suggested five explanations for David Cameron’s comment about no serving a third term. (See 7.57am.) In the Independent, John Rentoul has floated a sixth.

My guess is that, having already said (to Matthew d’Ancona) that he didn’t fancy being Prime Minister for more than two terms, Cameron thought that he would gain two things by being definite:

(a) Modesty. People don’t like the idea of a leader going on and on. They agree with the Shredded Wheat analogy: two parliamentary terms is about right; three is too much.

(b) Boris. It draws attention to other strong Conservatives, particularly the Mayor of London, who is the only politician in the country with a net positive rating. Vote Dave, Get Boris is not a bad line. Just as Vote Blair, Get Brown worked for Labour in 2005.

It seems they were handing out presents at that last cabinet meeting.

Cameron speaking at Age UK rally

David Cameron is speaking at an Age UK rally this morning. He is just getting going.

Ed Balls' speech and Q&A - summary

Here are the key points from Ed Balls’ speech and Q&A.

  • Balls ridiculed David Cameron’s claim that zero inflation was a sign of the government’s economic success. He said:

It shows you how desperate David Cameron and George Osborne have got that they are trying to claim today that a fall in the global oil price is somehow evidence their plan has worked. It’s ridiculous a statement. There are lots of complex reasons to do with Opec and fracking why the global oil price has come down. But it is nothing to do with George Osborne, I can promise you that. As an economist, I have never heard anybody boasting that zero inflation is a sign of economic success. It is a reflection of what’s happening more widely in the world economy.

He may have been thinking of this tweet from David Cameron.

Interestingly, George Osborne’s tweet on this did not try to take credit for zero inflation.

  • Balls signalled that Labour will go into the election with a commitment not to raise the basic or higher rate of tax. The party’s tax plans would be set out when the manifesto was published, he said. But he went on:

You know in the past we have made commitments not to raise the basic and the higher rate of income tax. It will be no surprise to people if we do that again.

  • He said he would resign rather than implement a VAT increase. He made that promise as he ruled out a VAT increase for the whole of the next parliament. (See 10.40am.)
  • He claimed that a future Conservative government would definitely raise VAT. He criticised Cameron for ruling out a third term but not a VAT increase. (See 10.49am.)

Updated

Q: How can you argue that there is a cost of living crisis when the prices of food and fuel are going down?

Balls says Cameron and Osborne are desperate if they think that zero inflation is a result of their policies. It is a consequence of global factors. It is “nonsense” to suggest otherwise.

If David Cameron and George Osborne want to go round saying people have never had it so good, “that is fine by us”. It will show how out of touch they are, he says.

Tory lead narrows to two seats, Guardian poll projection shows

The benefits of the Tories’ recent spike in the polls have evaporated, according to the Guardian’s latest poll projection, which has the Conservatives just ahead of Labour.

Based on today’s polls, Cameron’s party is projected to win 273 seats and Miliband’s 271. The SNP is stable on 53, the LibDems are on 27 and Ukip are projected to win 4 seats.

The challenge for the Conservatives is that each time the party seems to be pulling ahead, Labour comes back. And to state the obvious, every day that passes, Cameron has less time to sprint away.

Looking at the underlying trends, the shape of the next government fundamentally remains a contest between two alternative alliances: Labour-SNP on the one hand, and a resurrection of the current Conservative-LibDem coalition on the other.

Looking at the 324 combined Labour-SNP seats, the challenge for Cameron with only 44 days to go is that his room for manoeuvre – if he is to muster the support he needs to get anywhere near a workable majority – risks becoming tighter by the day.

Today's poll projections

Updated

Here is the text of Ed Balls’ speech.

Q: Will you neutralise the lie that Labour was so powerful it caused the global banking crash? And can we get our good record out there? [From a Labour supporter]

Balls says Labour made the Bank of England independent, did not join the euro, introduced the national minimum wage, cut NHS waiting times, and much else.

When George Osborne was shadow chancellor, he criticised Labour for being too tough on bank regulation, he says.

The idea that a global crisis that led to the bankrupting of Lehman Brothers in New York was caused by Labour having too many teachers is “utter nonsense”, he says

Q: How would you stop agency workers being paid a huge amount of money in the NHS?

Balls says he is not against the use of agency staff in principle. In any service, there are times when you need to bring in outside staff.

But this is becoming endemic. It is a symptom of underfunding. That is why Labour would provide a longterm funding settlement for the NHS.

Q: What will you do about public sector pay?

Balls says it adds insult to injury when the government ignores recommendations from pay review bodies.

Ed Balls' Q&A

Ed Balls is now taking questions.

Q: Will you guarantee that you won’t raise money from other taxes, like income tax?

Balls says Labour will set out all their tax pledges at the time of their manifesto.

In the past the party has said it won’t raise the basic rate or higher rate of income tax. It will be no surprise if Labour says that again, he says.

  • Balls signals that Labour will pledge not to raise the basic or higher rate of income tax.

But Labour would raise the top rate of tax, he confirms.

He says Labour can say this because it does not have unfunded tax commitments. And it is not planning cuts on the scale proposed by the Conservatives, he says.

The Tory plans are extreme. They won’t deliver them by cutting departmental spending. They will deliver them by raising VAT.

Q: Does the fact that inflation has reached zero counter your argument on living standards?

Balls says the Tories are trying to claim that this proves their policies have worked.

But the fall in oil prices has nothing to do with the Tories, he says.

As an economist, he has never heard anyone say zero inflation is a sign of success.

And inflation could rise again, he says.

The Cameron/Osborne boasts are “totally out of touch with people’s lives”, he says.

  • Balls says zero inflation is not a sign of the government’s economic success.

He says that, as night follows day, a Tory government will bring in a VAT increase.

Balls says Cameron ruling out a third term, but not ruling out a VAT increase

In his speech, Ed Balls has, rather cleverly, linked his claim that the Tories would put up VAT with David Cameron’s “shredded wheat” declaration yesterday. This is what he said a moment ago.

In his spectacularly self-indulgent, presumptuous and arrogant announcement David Cameron is ruling out a third term before he has even won a second term. But he won’t rule out raising VAT.

We may not now know who the Tory leader would be at the next election, but one thing we do know for sure - the Tories will ‎raise VAT if they win this one.

Because the Tories’ extreme spending plans and unfunded promises mean they’ll end up raising VAT to make their sums add up.

Inflation falls to zero

Inflation has fallen to zero. Here is the Guardian’s story, and here’s how it starts.

UK Inflation has fallen to zero for the first time on record as a result of falling food and petrol prices.

The consumer prices index fell to zero in February from 0.3% in January, moving the UK closer to a spell of deflation that is expected in the coming months. Economists had forecast a smaller drop to 0.1%.

Analysis Inflation falls to 0%: what does it mean for the UK economy? Larry Elliott Economics editor Read more

Fuel prices slumped by 16.6% over the year, while food prices were down 3.4% according to the Office for National Statistics.


And here is the election poster that Labour has released to coincide with his commitment not to raise VAT.

Labour poster
Labour poster Photograph: Labour party

Ed Balls has just given his pledge that the next Labour government will not raise VAT. The key line in his speech was released overnight.

Ed Balls speaking in Birmingham
Ed Balls speaking in Birmingham Photograph: BBC News

And here’s an extract.

The next Labour government will not raise VAT.

We will not put up VAT.

And we will not extend it to food, children’s clothes, books, newspapers and public transport fares.

We will not raise VAT because it’s the tax that hits everyone. It’s the tax that hits you every day. And it hits pensioners and the poorest hardest.

I would resign rather than break this promise and hike up VAT.

And Labour can make this manifesto commitment for the next Parliament because, unlike the Tories, all of our promises are fully funded and paid for.

IRA 'on-the-run' letters may have been unlawful, MPs say

The Commons Northern Ireland affairs committee has just published a report into the “on-the-runs” controversy.

Here’s the committee’s news release. And here is the report in full (pdf).

John Downey.
John Downey was sent one of the police letters in error, when in fact police in London were actively seeking him. Photograph: Oli Scarff/Getty Images

And here is the start of the Press Association’s story.

A government scheme that issued letters of comfort to on-the-run (OTR) Irish republicans distorted the legal process and may even have been unlawful, a Westminster inquiry has found.

An investigation by the Northern Ireland affairs committee heavily criticised the operation of the administrative process that saw almost 190 individuals obtain a document assuring them they could return to the UK without fear of arrest.

The little-known mechanism, which was set up in 2000 and ran for around 12 years, was propelled into the public domain last year when the prosecution of Co Donegal man John Downey for murdering four soldiers in the IRA’s Hyde Park bombing collapsed because it emerged he had been sent one of the letters in error, when in fact police in London were actively seeking him.

A judge-led review of the OTR scheme, ordered by the government in the wake of the court judgment, concluded last July that a “catastrophic” error had been made in the Downey case. But while Lady Justice Heather Hallett’s probe found the scheme was systematically flawed in operation, she said it was not unlawful in principle.

The select committee’s separate inquiry, published today, is less certain about its legality.

The report stated: “It is questionable whether the “on-the-runs” (OTR) scheme was lawful or not, but we believe its existence distorted the legal process. We accept that there was a difficult peace process going on at the time, but believe that there still has to be transparency and accountability in government and in the legal process.”

Updated

Back to shredded wheat. A reader says this is not the first time shredded wheat has had a political dimension.

Natalie Bennett, the Green party leader, is on Woman’s Hour now.

You can listen to it here.

I will be monitoring it, but not covering it in full.

David Cameron's 'shredded wheat' declaration: verdict of the commentariat (and me)

Was it a terrible mistake?

Two or three?
Two or three?

The first thing to say is that David Cameron’s “shredded wheat doctrine” is a sound one. Two terms is about right; after that, even the best prime minister is trying the patience of the electorate. Most intelligent people recognise this, Cameron is intelligent himself, and that is one reason why everyone at Westminster assumed that Cameron would stand down at some point before the 2020 election. (By the way, what is it about the Tories and breakfast cereal? Boris Johnson explained his thinking on equality with a cornflakes analogy.)

But should he have said it out loud?

Judging by the reaction of commentators (see below), the clear answer is no. With very few exceptions, the verdict is that this is at best unhelpful, and at worst profoundly damaging. Given that the media (still, though less than before) shape the way that political messages are communicated to the public, if Fleet Street says it is a gaffe, then it is.

But this episode is also illustrative of the peculiar truth aversion in British political discourse. (Is it the same in other political cultures? I don’t really know.) There are some things deemed unsayable, even though they are perfectly true, and rather unremarkable. Like Ed Miliband saying he sometimes doesn’t agree with Ed Balls. Or Nick Clegg saying the Lib Dems are going to get hammered. Or Cameron saying he won’t serve a third term. Personally, I’m inclined to side with Adam Boulton on this one, and I think it’s healthy when politicians give honest answers to straight questions. To hear John Humphrys on the Today programme complain about Cameron giving an answer to the third term question, when he could have said nothing (see 8.15am), was surreal.

That said, Cameron’s comments did lead to Ask Boris being dominated by the leadership issue. We may have to wait awhile for honesty nirvana to arrive. In the mean time, the argument for message discipline has been strengthened.

This is what other people are saying about the affair in the blogosphere and on Twitter.

But in talking about his departure, Cameron has made himself sound weak – at a time when his party is selling itself on his strong leadership. It’s an odd decision, and I fear it’s one which makes the nightmare of Ed Miliband government a tiny bit more likely. It creates a distraction. David Cameron does a job that ought not to be compared to eating Shredded Wheat. In ruling out a third term, Cameron has diminished his chances of serving a second.

By pledging not to serve a third term as prime minister, David Cameron has made one of the biggest strategic errors of his premiership. A week before the start of the general election campaign, with the Tories still trailing in most polls, the seeming presumption that he will win a second is extraordinary. It smacks of taking the voters for granted, of measuring the curtains in Downing Street for another five years.

The Tory party has been remarkably united behind Cameron and although this remains the case, there is definitely some anger amongst MPs at his comments. One Tory MP told me he thought the remarks were ‘odd’, noting that ‘I doubt it is massively damaging but sends a message of both weakness and arrogance.’

Another backbencher says there is a ‘sense of anger at his indulgence’ and that the three named successors — Theresa May, Boris Johnson and George Osborne — will be ‘badly harmed’ as a result. Other Tories don’t think it’s much of an issue, with one MP pointing out that ‘gossiping about leadership is perennial — especially before an uncertain election.’

The real damage done by his intervention comes after the election. Prime Ministers are meant to be like good cheeses – they don’t have a sell-by date, you just know when they’re past their best. Attempting to set down 2020 as his official end-date does nothing to make it come about – in fact, if he is re-elected this interview risks bringing his departure forward.

And here are some views from journalists and commentators on Twitter.

From ConservativeHome’s Paul Goodman

From the Sun’s Stig Abell

From ConservativeHome’s Andrew Gimson

From the Telegraph’s Dan Hodges

From British Future’s Sunder Katwala

From the Times’s Sam Coates

From the Independent’s Steve Richards

From the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope

From the Times’s Michael Savage

From the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn

From Matthew Francis, an academic

From Sky’s Faisal Islam

From the Sunday Times’s Gillian Bowditch

From Newsnight’s David Grossman

From the BBC’s Andrew Neil

Updated

Q: Has James Landale asked to come into your kitchen?

No, says Johnson. But Landale is a very good journalist.

Q: You were at school together, weren’t you? (Yes. Cameron, Johnson and Landale all went to Eton.)

Nick Ferrari asks if he can visit Johnson’s kitchen.

That would have to be referred to a “higher power”, he says. Presumably that’s Mrs Johnson.

Q: How many kitchens have you got?

Far fewer than Ed Miliband.

Johnson says he is building more affordable homes than at any time since 1980.

Q: So what is the figure?

Something like 17,000 or 18,000.

Q: How can you know this is the biggest figure since the 1980 if you do not know what the figure is?

Johnson says he has given the figure.

Q: If you were Conservative leader, would you duck debates?

Johnson says Cameron is doing a debate. The “scaredy cat” Labour would not do what Cameron proposed, although now they have agreed to it, he says.

Q: Should Jeremy Clarkson be fired?

Johnson says he is automatically in favour of Clarkson because he fuels “lefty indignation”.

Jeremy Clarkson on his bike
On his bike? Boris doesn’t think so Photograph: Beretta/Sims/REX/Beretta/Sims/REX

Updated

Johnson says he is still committed to the 2% target for defence spending as a proportion of GDP that David Cameron set out at the Nato summit.

But the government should insist on the military delivering efficiencies, he says.

Boris Johnson says Cameron was being 'humble' and 'straighforward'

Here is the full quote from earlier when Boris Johnson was talking about Cameron’s comment.

[Cameron] was asked a question about a third term, he is fighting flat out - as we all are - to win a second term. That is absolutely vital. We have a long-term economic plan for the economy and for the country and it’s only by getting David Cameron back into government that we will deliver it. So to say he is arrogant or presumptuous to rule out a third term seems to be totally bizarre. He is actually being rather humble and rather straightforward and telling it like it is.

Q: How did you feel about David Cameron naming you as a potential successor?

Johnson replies:

Of all the subjects in the world, this is the one that sends me into the deepest coma of tedium.

To be fair to Dave, this is not the first time people have said this.

Q: How did you feel about it?

Johnson says he felt very pleased that David Cameron was going to go on for another five years.

Q: But how did you feel about being named with Theresa May and George Osborne as a possible successor.

Johnson says Cameron was being succinct. There are other successors out there.

He did not feel very much at all, he says.

This is something that has been said before.

There won’t be a vacancy for five years.

Q: Will you go for it?

Johnson says he cannot answer that. It is a long way off.

We don’t know the identity of the next Tory leader. It might be an unborn child.

Pressed by Nick Ferrari, he accepts that it won’t be an unborn child.

Ferrari gets some shredded wheat out. How many will you eat?

Johnson says he has just had “breaker”.

Q: In the election, what should worry voters more: Ed Miliband not being able to eat a bacon sandwich, or Grant Shapps not telling the truth about his business dealings?

Johnson says the problem with Miliband is not that he cannot eat a sandwich. It is that he wants to take Britain back to the 1970s.

As for Shapps, he has done a terrific job as party chairman. He is one of the best chairmen the party has had for ages. This controversy is being flammed up by people who hate business.

Nick Ferrari intervenes. Shapps was asked a straight question on LBC, and he gave a misleading answer.

Johnson says this was “a storm in a teacup”. There was no impropriety involved.

Q: He even lied or he forgot.

Johnson says any overlap between Shapps being an MP and having a second job was short. He is being bashed because he set up a business, he says.

Boris Johnson says Cameron's decision to rule out a third term was 'obvious'

Watch Boris Johnson’s LBC phone-in.

Q: How wise was Cameron to say what he did?

Johnson changes the subject, reading out the Ask Boris phone number.

What Cameron is staying is banal and obvious, he says.

Cameron has been leader of the Conservative party for 10 years. He wants to stay until 2020. The country would be “endangered” by a Labour government. Another five years of Cameron is fanatastic.

I’m not entirely sure I see what the story is.

Cameron was asked about a third term, and said no.

Q: It is rather presumptive, isn’t it?

Johnson says he does not understand that argument; Cameron was asked about a third term. To say this is arrogant or presumptious is “bizarre”.

Q: Is he right to say all prime minister’s go mad?

Johnson says he does not know. Then, when pressed, he says he disagrees. David Cameron is not mad, he says.

  • Johnson says Cameron’s comment about not serving a third term was “banal” and “obvious”.

Updated

Johnson says he has got a huge job to do for another 15 months.

Q: If David Cameron offered you the chance to be PM, would you take it? And what changes would you make?

Boris Johnson says he would ask to stay on as mayor of London.

He has got more than a year to serve, he says. Today progress on the Tube is being announced.

Boris Johnson's LBC phone-in

Boris Johnson is about to start his LBC phone-in

I will be listening to it, and covering the highlights here.

Here is is being doorstepped earlier.

Boris Johnson
Boris Johnson Photograph: Sky News

According to YouGov’s Joe Twyman, half of voters think David Cameron should serve a full second term.

Bloomberg’s Rob Hutton says Michael Fallon on the Today programme gave the answer on leadership elections that David Cameron should have given to the BBC.

Here’s another item to add to the agenda (see 6.59am). Natalie Bennett, the Green party leader, is on Woman’s Hour at 10am.

Q: Isn’t it a matter of concern the government is not going to keep to the 2% of GDP defence spending target?

Fallon says the government will meet this next year. And, after that defence spending will be settled by a defence review.

Q: The head of the US army said he was very concerned about British defence cuts.

Fallon says this point was not put to him when he visited Washington recently.

And General Raymond Odierno was wrong, he says. Britain can deploy a brigade.

And that’s it. The interview is over.

Michael Fallon says there is a ‘very live threat’ to the Falkland Islands.
Michael Fallon says there is a ‘very live threat’ to the Falkland Islands. Photograph: Robert Ghement/EPA

Q: Has the threat to the Falklands been increased by Russia’s deal with Argentina?

Fallon says that deal has not been confirmed. But the threat to the Falklands is a very live threat, he says.

The government’s job is to protect the right of the islanders to remain British, he says.

Updated

Humphrys turns to the Falklands.

Fallon says he will be making a statement to parliament about this. It is about modernising the defences of the Falklands.

But he has to tell parliament first, he claims.

(That’s not true. In time-honoured fashion, the MoD has told the Sun first.)

Michael Fallon's Today interview

John Humphrys is interviewing Michael Fallon.

He plays a clip from Michael Gove’s interview on Newsnight. (See 6.59am.)

Q: Where you surprised by David Cameron’s comment about standing down?

Fallon says it was a fairly obvious answer. Cameron was clear he was looking for a second term.

Q: When would the leadership election be?

Fallon says only in Westminster are people worried about this. He switches the subject, to the choice between “competence” and Labour “chaos” etc.

What happens in 2020 does not bother most people, he says.

Q: But that is verging on the irresponsible. We are concerned about the future of the prime minister. This takes us somewhere we haven’t been before. There would have to be a leadership election. And would Cameron then stand down.

Fallon says if Cameron had said he wanted to stay on ...

Q: He did not have to say anything.

Fallon says Cameron was giving a straight answer.

Good morning. I’m taking over now from Claire.

Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, is about to be interviewed on the Today programme.

Cameron's bombshell: why did he say it?

Various theories are flying about this morning to explain why David Cameron – seemingly under no pressure to do so – casually announced his decision not to seek a third term. Today’s front pages are, unsurprisingly, rather taken with it:

So what could it have been?

The everyone-knew-it-anyway theory

This was chief whip – and Cameron chum – Michael Gove’s take on it. This was not a surprise to anybody, he insisted. We all knew he didn’t want to go on for ever, he said. Then again, as the Sunday Times political editor put it:

The slip-of-the-tongue theory

Caught off-guard in a cosy kitchen chat with James Landale, the prime minister simply made a gaffe and said too much, leaving No 10 scrambling to explain what he really meant (which turns out to be exactly what he said: no third term).

The he-totally-meant-to-announce-it-this-way theory

Could be. But the No 10 scrambling (see above) doesn’t give much welly to this argument.

The he’s-so-arrogant-he-thinks-it’s-all-up-to-him theory

Certainly the line that many Labour, Lib Dem and other opposition MPs have chosen to take. He hasn’t actually won a second term yet, they point out (and didn’t technically win the first one). On the other hand, what serving prime minister wants to act coy about his belief that he’s going to storm to victory?

The it’s-all-meaningless-anyway theory

Does it even matter who’s prime minister? Or had Sky News’ Adam Boulton just had a bad evening?

The campaign media offensive by politicians on all sides continues, this time with business secretary Vince Cable hosting Buzzfeed not in his kitchen, but on the dance floor. He has, apparently, reached “international supreme” level in ballroom dancing, which is not a boast that many in the Commons can make.

Cable is bluffly dismissive of the chances of former Lib Dem party president Tim Farron making the leap to party leader:

I mean, he’s a very good campaigning MP, but he’s never been in government and has never had to make difficult decisions and I think his credibility isn’t great.

You know, he’s an entertaining speaker and has a bit of a fan club. But I suspect he would not be seen as a very credible leader, at least now. Maybe in five, 10 years’ time, things are different.

Updated

ITV has announced more details of the format of its leaders debate to be held next week.

After all the toing and froing over the debates, it’s hard to keep track, but this one will feature seven party leaders: David Cameron (Conservatives), Ed Miliband (Labour), Nick Clegg (Lib Dems), Nigel Farage (Ukip), Nicola Sturgeon (SNP), Natalie Bennett (Greens) and Leanne Wood (Plaid Cymru).

ITV News’ Julie Etchingham will chair the two-hour debate. ITV says:

Leaders will have the opportunity to address questions posed by the studio audience. The leaders will not see these questions in advance of the debate.

The format will allow each leader to give an uninterrupted answer to a question and then would open up the debate to a moderated discussion between the leaders, for up to around 17 to 18 minutes on each question.

The studio audience selected will be demographically representative of the country as a whole and politically balanced.

It invites questions from the public via debate@itv.com

Updated

Morning briefing

Good morning and welcome to day two of the Guardian’s live election blogs.

We kicked off our live campaign coverage yesterday, only to see David Cameron declare that this is definitely the last campaign he’ll engage in as Conservative leader.

The fallout from that announcement – straight-up, honest answer to a question, or off-the-cuff vote-loser: you decide – will reverberate throughout today.

Once again, and every day until the UK goes to the polls on 7 May, we will be live blogging from 7am to 10pm (or later, if a politician lobs another surprise into our evening) – everything you need to know will be here, starting with our comprehensive morning briefing.

I’m Claire Phipps and I’ll be starting the blog today, handing over to Andrew Sparrow later this morning. Do follow us on Twitter @Claire_Phipps and @AndrewSparrow, if you’d like, or leave us a comment below the line.

The big picture

Everything today – and potentially for the next five years, should he return to No 10 in May – will be seen through the prism of last night’s declaration from Cameron that he would not serve a third term.

Here’s what he told the BBC’s deputy political editor, James Landale, in an interview conducted in the Cameron family home in the Cotswolds:

‘There’s plenty of talent there’ – David Cameron explains why he’ll hand over the Tory party reins at the end of a (potential) second term.

Tricky places, kitchens.

So why doesn’t he want a third term? You can have too much of a good thing, Cameron told the BBC:

I’ve said I’ll stand for a full second term, but I think after that it will be time for new leadership. Terms are like shredded wheat: two are wonderful but three might just be too many.

Plenty more of this to come. But you should also know:

Janice Atkinson.
Janice Atkinson.
  • Ukip MEP and parliamentary candidate Janice Atkinson was expelled from the party on Monday night following claims her assistant was caught trying to inflate an expenses claim. Atkinson had previously been forced to apologise after she referred to a Thai constituent as a “ting-tong”. The expulsion leaves Ukip scrambling for a new candidate in Folkestone and Hythe – close to Nigel Farage’s target seat in South Thanet. Atkinson says she “fully intend[s] to appeal” against the decision.
  • Another candidate bites the dust: Afzal Amin, who was standing for the Tories in Dudley North before he was recorded allegedly plotting with the English Defence League, has stepped down. His website www.afzalamin.com now redirects without explanation to www.conservatives.com.
  • Tory foreign office minister Hugo Swire was secretly filmed by Channel 4’s Dispatches programme joking that benefits claimants could afford to donate £55,000 to the party. At a fundraising ball last month, Swire was seen to encourage an auction bid by saying “£60,000 … Ian, persuade him … He’s not on benefits is he? Well if he is, then he can afford it … £55,000?” You can watch the Channel 4 clip here.

Do also have a read of Andrew Sparrow’s summary of yesterday’s main politics action, if you missed any of it.

And here’s the updated Guardian poll of polls, taking in the latest scores:

Election 2015: The Guardian poll projection.
Our model takes in all published constituency-level polls, UK-wide polls and polling conducted in the nations, and projects the result in each of the 650 Westminster constituencies using an adjusted average. Methodology.

Diary

  • The 8.10am interview on Radio 4’s Today programme will be defence secretary Michael Fallon on defence spending. (On Monday, Ukip said it would keep defence spending at 2% of GDP, spending £3bn a year more than the Conservatives.) Fallon will also make a statement on the Falklands to the House of Commons at 12.30; the Sun today says the UK is preparing to send more troops to the islands.
  • Boris Johnson lands at LBC for his Ask Boris call-in at 9am. I wonder what the questions will be about.
  • At 10.30am Ed Balls is speaking in Birmingham about his VAT freeze pledge. You can read more about that here – it got rather overshadowed last night.
  • At 2.15pm, another of Cameron’s maybe-successors George Osborne is up before the Treasury select committee for questions on the budget.
  • And the next in the Guardian’s Battleground Britain series launches, focusing on the East of England. You can read part one of the series, on Glasgow East, here.

The big issue

It’s the Labour VAT freeze. Just kidding. It’s Cameron’s revelation that three terms is too much for him to stomach.

Colleagues, opponents and commentators have been quick to react. Some thought it a slip by the PM, like Spectator editor Fraser Nelson:

Some thought it a brave step, with Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg saying:

It’s noble that a leader is willing to give up power; it’s very refreshing.

Some found the assumption that Cameron would have the luxury of choice over his leaving date presumptuous – this from the shadow Welsh secretary Owen Smith:

Some were just thrilled to be in on the action:

BBC2’s Newsnight programme had, in the Cameron corner, Michael Gove, chief whip and friend of the PM, who insisted that this was all part of the plan, that it shouldn’t have been a surprise to anybody, and that anyone who was taken aback was suffering from “cognitive dissonance” at this outbreak of honesty from a politician:

One of the reasons he’s popular, respected and liked as prime minister is people know he is not interested in the office for what it can give him, he’s interested because of public service, and he thinks … at the end of those two terms, I will have done my job and I can hand over to others.

Ranged against Gove was Alastair Campbell, doing a good deal of looking askance, accusing the Tory leader of creating “a massive distraction … [It’s] a potential disaster for them … He’s created a sort of soap opera when he should be campaigning.”

Gove, despite his protestations that this was simply a straight answer to a straight question, then spent some time arguing that US presidents can serve the entirety of their second term before handing over, seemingly forgetting that a) they don’t have the choice to stick around for a third term; b) the US has a system of primaries to choose the next candidate quite a way in advance; c) these primaries have a habit of being a little distracting; and d) the term “lame duck” exists for a reason.

Regardless, it was a spirited effort from the chief whip. You can watch the exchange below:

Michael Gove and Alastair Campbell on BBC2’s Newsnight debate the pros and cons of David Cameron’s bombshell.

Today will undoubtedly see more jousting about what Cameron meant, whether he meant to say it at all, and what it all means for the Tory party and the election. Alongside that, scrutiny will fall on the nominees suggested by the PM: “the Theresa Mays and the George Osbornes and the Boris Johnsons”.

I’m not sure yet what Theresa May is up to today; you can read the report on yesterday’s speech on tackling extremism here. The live blog will keep an eye out for any sightings today. Johnson is on LBC at 9am for his Ask Boris call-in and will be practising his casual rebuffs to questions over his ambitions. Osborne, fresh from his Ask the Chancellors debate on Sky News yesterday, will be quizzed by MPs over his budget. He saw some early support yesterday from former Tory MP turned professional Twitterer Louise Mensch:

Read these

  • Shadow education secretary Tristram Hunt, writing in the Times (paywall), laments the narrow teaching of “British values” (“the Queen, double-decker buses and the Houses of Parliament”) in schools, in a piece most notable for its frequent mentions of Michael Gove and complete absence of the current education secretary Nicky Morgan.
  • Also in the Times, Rachel Sylvester says voters should prepare for

a positive bloodbath of party leaders. It is entirely possible that five of them will have changed within six months in a massacre at the top. Even becoming prime minister will not guarantee survival.

  • In an editorial, the Telegraph does not appear to find itself in the Theresa May camp, saying of her anti-extremism speech on Monday:

It is not as if the home secretary has identified the wrong problems; they are the same ones we have known about for years. Our concern is that her speech was a showy piece of electioneering that will change nothing.

  • And James Landale, who secured that surprising admission from the PM, tells the background story in this BBC blog:

It was not something that a helpful Downing Street official had suggested I might ask with a heavy hint that I might get an interesting answer. It was just one of many speculative questions that political journalists like me ask in the hope that just occasionally they might get an answer. And this time it did.

The day in a tweet

If today were an advertising slogan, it would be…

Bet you can’t eat three.

Shredded Wheat adverts, 1980-81.

The key story you’re missing when you’re election-obsessed

Firing squads could once again be used in the US, after Utah’s governor on Monday signed into law a bill that resurrects their use as an alternative method of executing condemned inmates. The new law allows Utah to use a firing squad if lethal injection drugs are unavailable.

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