Evening Summary
Today marked the beginning of the general election campaign. As parliament was dissolved, party leaders from across the political spectrum put their promises and ideas to the British public, including the prime minister, who outlined his plans in a statement outside No 10:
The General Election will be held on May 7th. Until that day I will be going to all four corners and all four nations of our United Kingdom, with one clear message. Together we are turning our country around ...... and for the sake of you, your family, and your children’s future ...... we have got to see this through.
The campaign starting means that no UK citizen has a representative in Parliament anymore. This is because when Parliament is dissolved, the role of MP ceases to exist until the election of a new House of Commons at the general election. MPs hoping to get re-elected might stay in touch with former constituents, but this is not done in any professional capacity.
The big picture
David Cameron went to Buckingham palace today to mark the formal dissolution of parliament. It was more an act of theatre than anything else - traditionally the prime minister marks the start of a general election by going to see the Queen to seek the dissolution of parliament. But, under the Fixed-term Parliament Act, that is unnecessary, because the dissolution of parliament was ordained by law.
Nick Clegg, in his capacity as Lord President of the Privy Council, also went to Buckingham Palace, where he formally advised the Queen on the date for the summoning of the new parliament (18 May).
Diary
- David Cameron launched the general election campaign with a warning in Downing Street that the British people face a stark choice between a safe and secure future under the Tories or economic chaos under Labour. In a short statement outside Number 10, he said:
You can choose [Cameron and the Conservatives] ...
Or you can choose the economic chaos of Ed Miliband’s Britain — over £3000 in higher taxes for every working family to pay for more welfare and out of control spending. Debt will rise and jobs will be lost as a result. Ed Miliband pays lip service to working people while planning to hike taxes and increase debt.
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Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, later dismissed Cameron’s claim, stating:
The Conservatives have had to make quite a lot of assumptions to get quite such a big number. The first thing to bear in mind is this is not an annual number. This is a number that is cumulated over at least four years so they are not claiming that this is the amount of additional tax you have to pay in any one year. And they are also only taking working households – so they are getting a big number and dividing it by a relatively small number of households.
The second point is they have assumed that Labour is going to follow a certain set of fiscal targets. Actually Labour has been pretty vague about exactly what fiscal targets it will try and achieve, but what the Conservatives assumed is that Labour want to get to a current budget balance by 2017 – so that requires a set of cuts or tax rises by then.
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Ed Miliband gave a speech at the Labour business manifesto launch, where he said that his plan is based on the idea that Britain will only succeed when every worker succeeds, and that he wants to build on the great strength of British business. He also said that Tory EU policy represents “a clear and present danger to British jobs, British business, British families and British prosperity”.
Our long term future lies inside, not outside, the European Union.
There could be nothing worse for our country or for our great exporting businesses than playing political games with our membership of the EU.
David Cameron used to understand that.
But in the past five years our place in the European Union has become less and less secure.
[Cameron] came to power promising to stop his party “banging on about Europe”.
Now if he carries on this way, he’ll have us inside the European Union banging on the door to leave.
Or even worse, outside the European Union, banging on the door to be let back in.
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Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, slapped down Labour’s vice election chair for suggesting the party could borrow more for investment. Yesterday Lucy Powell told the Sunday Politics that Labour was committed to balancing the books for day-to-day spending but that there could be “some investment borrowing” under its fiscal rules. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has said this could allow the party to borrow as much as £30bn, and the Conservatives have been treating that figure as a firm spending commitment. But Balls said that there were no plans in the manifesto for extra spending that would require extra borrowing. He said:
We have said very clearly we are going to get the current budget not only into balance but surplus in the next parliament - more than covering day-to-day spending.
We’re going to get the national debt falling in the next parliament and we will do that as soon as we can in the next parliament
And because we will inherit a deficit which is going to be very large, there are no proposals in our manifesto which will involve any additional spending - current spending or investment spending - that will need to be covered by additional borrowing.
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Labour played down complaints from some firms about their being quoted in a Labour advert in today’s Financial Times warning about the risks posed by the planned Conservatives referendum on the EU. Chuka Umunna, the shadow business secretary, said:
We spoke to all the businesses who were quoted in the advertisement and all we have done is cite what they have said publicly ... I think this is a little bit of a storm in a tea cup. If you make public statements about important areas of public policy.
- Nick Clegg refused to rule out the Lib Dems backing David Cameron’s plans for an in/out referendum on the EU before the end of 2017, despite some figures, like Vince Cable and Ed Davey, suggesting that having a referendum would create so much business uncertainty that it would be hard for the Lib Dems to support it.
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Natalie Bennett, the Green party leader, launched her party’s election campaign by saying the Greens would represent people “sick of business-as-usual politics”. She added:
We’ll be the only party offering changes that genuinely reconfigure our economy to work for everyone, not just those at the top. We’re the only ones demanding a genuinely public NHS - free from profit-making companies. And, of course, we promise the bold steps required to tackle the looming climate crisis.
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Gordon Brown said Labour would spend £800m more on services in Scotland than the SNP. He later told my colleague Libby Brookws that the SNP’s claim to be a party of social justice had been exposed. He said:
Once people see the detail: let’s be honest, there is no more money for the national health service in Scotland for the coming year other than by cuts from somewhere else. Zero additional spending means zero additional spending. It couldn’t be clearer. The important thing that people will come to realise is that it’s all talk, bluster and rhetoric.
The reason why the SNP talk about coalitions and deals all the time is that the can’t actually afford to talk about the real social issues because they don’t have the money or the policies to deal with them.
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Nigel Farage launched Ukip’s pledge card in the middle of a Westminster street, where there was a big scrum around him. Our political correspondent Rowena Mason was there, and said:
Ukip leader Nigel Farage brushed off suggestions his party is losing momentum as he unveiled five key pledges on leaving the EU, controlling immigration, more cash for the NHS, cutting foreign aid, and easing tax for those on the minimum wage. He held the launch in the middle of a road Smith Square, Westminster, flanked by policy chief Suzanne Evans, economics spokesman Patrick O’Flynn and MP Mark Reckless - but no Douglas Carswell.
- Farage also said he has had informal conversations with Tory MPs about going into a coalition together.
- Boris Johnson spoke about the “moral purpose” of capitalism at the Legatum Institute, saying it helps increase life expectancy and therefore people will live longer under the Tories. He also attacked Labour for wanting to take the country back to the “grim” 1970s which was a time of racism and trade-union dominated politics, Ukip for idealising a non-existent 50s, the Lib Dems for wanting any time when their polling was better and the Greens seeking a return to some time un the bronze age.
- George Osborne said the Tories will not publish details of their planned welfare cuts until after the election. Appearing on Channel 4 News, the Chancellor said his party would set out how they intend to achieve the planned 12 billion in savings from the welfare budget in a summer spending review, if they are returned to power in May.
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David Cameron spoke at a rally in Chippenham, where he admitted he’s not the “perfect” Prime Minister but that he has a record to be proud of. He said voters faced a stark choice on May 7 between his “great team” and the one headed by Ed Miliband, asked whether people wanted George Osborne in the Treasury or Ed Balls, who “broke the banks”, and praised Home Secretary Theresa May as preferable to Labour shadow Yvette Cooper. He added:
There are only two people that can walk through that door in Number 10 in 39 days time - there is me or Ed Miliband, the guy who even forgot to mention the deficit and who has opposed every single decision we have taken, every single tough call we have made.
- John McDonnell, the chair of the Socialist Campaign Group of Labour MPs and former leadership contender, said that up to 40 Labour MPs would vote against a budget or spending review that includes cuts. McDonnell said there has been a shift in the Labour leadership’s thinking and recognised an alternative needed to be offered instead of an “austerity-lite” approach. Grant Shapps responded:
This is the true face of Ed Miliband’s Labour Party - they’re addicted to more wasteful spending and more taxes.
If Ed Miliband becomes Prime Minister he’ll be carried there by Alex Salmond, bankrolled by Len McCluskey and pushed around by his own backbenchers. It would cause chaos for Britain.
The big issue
Polling trends show that Labour and the Conservatives remain pretty much tied at the moment. A recent poll by YouGov had Labour taking a four-point lead, and another one by ComRes showed the opposite picture with the Tories ahead by four. Lord Ashcroft’s weekly poll, released earlier today, put the Conservatives two points ahead.
As my colleague Alberto Nardelli writes:
As always, it’s best to look at the trend instead of picking the poll we like best.
The underlying picture remains unchanged: Labour and the Conservatives are virtually tied in the polls, and our latest projection has the Conservatives winning 277 seats, Labour 269, the SNP 53, the Liberal Democrats 25, Ukip four and the Greens one.
Both main parties remain well short of an outright majority.
One number to keep an eye on over the next five weeks is the combined Labour-SNP share of seats. It’s currently projected at 322 seats - anything above this, and Cameron wouldn’t have the numbers to form a government if the MPs of both parties were to vote him down.
Because of this factor, Cameron needs the polls to change substantially more between now and election than Miliband does if he is to stand a chance of forming a stable government.
You can see the most current poll projections here, and here.
What the papers are saying
Tuesday's Guardian front page: They’re off : with row over tax and a personal attack #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/ubidMfTpXj
— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) March 30, 2015
Tuesday's Times front page: Miliband faces threat of mutiny over cuts #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/tWe44aKyfg
— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) March 30, 2015
Tuesday's Daily Mirror front page: E-cigs timebomb #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/WLr6ZHmZaz
— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) March 30, 2015
Tuesday's Daily Mail front page: Now they are selling your health secrets #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/3RgwwO1EpA
— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) March 30, 2015
Tuesday's Telegraph front page: Miliband stung by business backlash #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/poRPmtgTTa
— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) March 30, 2015
Quote of the day
One from Ken Livingstone, the Labour former mayor of London, who told BBC News:
After this election the pressure for proportional representation is going to be irresistible. It’s completely wrong that you might get a few million people voting for Ukip or the Greens and they only get one or two seats in parliament. You need a fairer voting system.
Hero of the day
Nick Robinson, the BBC’s political editor, who has been off the campaign trail following surgery to remove a tumour. In a new blog, he wrote that he was on the mend.
The operation to remove a carcinoid tumour from my lung was a complete success. I am now beginning a course of chemotherapy to try to stop the cancer even daring to think of returning. I’m also working to restore the strength of my voice after the op.
Many thanks to all the doctors and nurses who have been, and are, looking after me – particularly at the Royal Brompton and Royal Free hospitals. Heartfelt thanks too to the many people who have been in touch with their good wishes.
Normal service will be resumed as soon as possible.
Villain of the day
The ousted Ukip councillor Rozanne Duncan, who said she is unable to describe her “discomfort” around black people in a television show due for broadcast on Monday.
Question of the day
With Parliament dissolved can we just go nuts, break laws and stuff?
— Bryan Appleyard (@BryanAppleyard) March 30, 2015
What we’ll be talking about tomorrow
Nick Clegg will outline the Liberal Democrat commitment to the NHS and mental health at the party’s first press conference of the campaign.He will then head to Watford before travelling onto Cardiff to launch the Liberal Democrat campaign in Wales.
That’s all from me today. Join us again tomorrow, when our politics team will bring you daily live coverage of the campaign from 7am till late. You’re best advised to tighten your shoelaces - we will continue to do this every day until 7 May, and possibly later.
Updated
The Guardian’s chief political correspondent Nicholas Watt has written about Cameron’s visit to Chippenham.
In a short speech to Tory activists at a school in the Corsham area of the constituency, which lies in 28th place on the party’s list of target seats, the prime minister said: “Never forget this election is a choice. You can stick with the Conservatives, who’ve shown competence, who’ve shown decency, who’ve shown a long-term economic plan that has turned the country round or you can put that at risk.”
The prime minister’s visit to Chippenham shows the limits of his electoral ambitions. The party needs to gain 23 seats to reach the magic 326 seats that would give Cameron a parliamentary majority of one. The Tories won 306 seats in 2010 but have since lost three seats. The seat that would take the Tories over the line is the Labour-held Plymouth Moor View, which is 23rd on the Tory target list.
Tory sources rejected suggestions that the decision to visit Chippenham was a sign of a lack of electoral ambition after a poll by Lord Ashcroft suggested that the party should easily capture the seat from Duncan Hames who has served as Nick Clegg’s parliamentary aide.
Updated
Boris Johnson says people will live longer under the Tories
My colleague Rowena Mason has just sent me this:
Boris Johnson has been speaking about the “moral purpose” of capitalism at the Legatum Institute, saying it helps increase life expectancy and therefore people will live longer under the Tories.
He also took the opportunity to attack Labour for wanting to take the country back to the “grim” 1970s which was a time of racism and trade-union dominated politics, Ukip for idealising a non-existent 50s, the Lib Dems for wanting any time when their polling was better and the Greens seeking a return to some time un the bronze age.
There was no mention of the Labour attack line that OBR autumn statement figures suggested Tory cuts would shrink the state to the size it was in the 1930s as a share of national income.
Updated
Britain’s first ever parliamentary candidate has come out as HIV-positive. Adrian Hyyrylainen-Trett, Lib Dem candidate for Vauxhall, has given an interview to Buzzfeed’s Patrick Strudwick, who writes:
Weeks earlier, I had received a message in my Facebook account: “Would it be possible to have a very private conversation…” We met in a quiet coffee shop. “I want to reveal that I’m HIV positive,” Adrian said, with jittery determination, explaining he had thought about it for a long time.
Here’s more copy from PA about Osborne on Channel 4 News earlier, where he said the Tories will not publish details of their planned welfare cuts until after the election.
Mr Osborne said that they would set out how they intend to achieve the planned 12 billion in savings from the welfare budget in a summer spending review, if they are returned to power after the General Election on May 7.
“We will set out our plans as part of a spending review when you can make these balanced judgments,” he told Channel 4 News. “We have said in the spending review in the summer.”
Interesting factcheck of Osborne’s record by Patrick Worrall for Channel 4 News, who says “the government has barely achieved half the deficit reduction it set out to do”.
Updated
Others point out that Cameron’s appearance in Chippenham is a sign of his transformation into a TV talent show judge.
Paging Simon Cowell RT @GeneralBoles Is it just me or are the PM's trousers pulled up a touch too high? pic.twitter.com/4HI2R27xrN
— Lucy Fisher (@LOS_Fisher) March 30, 2015
David Cameron speaks at rally in Chippenham
David Cameron has spoken at a rally in Chippenham, where he admitted he’s not the “perfect” Prime Minister but that he has a record to be proud of. As the Press Association reports:
Mr Cameron said voters faced a stark choice on May 7 between his “great team” and the one headed by Ed Miliband.
Standing alongside the Conservative candidate, Michelle Donelan, he told activists they needed to win the seat to form a majority government.
The Prime Minister asked whether people wanted George Osborne in the Treasury or Ed Balls, who “broke the banks”, and praised Home Secretary Theresa May as preferable to Labour shadow Yvette Cooper.
And he added: “I don’t claim that I have got every call right or that I am the perfect Prime Minister. But I know this. I had a job to do in 2010 and it was about sorting out our economy, getting the deficit down and getting people back to work.
“There are only two people that can walk through that door in Number 10 in 39 days time - there is me or Ed Miliband, the guy who even forgot to mention the deficit and who has opposed every single decision we have taken, every single tough call we have made.”
Our chief political correspondent Nicholas Watt, who was at the event, points out that Cameron’s appearance at Chippenham is a sign of his insecurity.
If @David_Cameron confident wd have visited seat needs to win to secure maj: Lab- held Middlesbrough South + East Cleveland. 20th target 1/2
— Nicholas Watt (@nicholaswatt) March 30, 2015
Instead PM visits Lib Dem-held Chippenham - easy @Conservatives gain according to @LordAshcroft poll. Con 39% Lib Den 24% 2/2
— Nicholas Watt (@nicholaswatt) March 30, 2015
Strange: if @David_Cameron trying to frame election as binary choice between him + @Ed_Miliband he goes to easy-to-gain @LibDems Chippenham
— Nicholas Watt (@nicholaswatt) March 30, 2015
Shirt sleeves Dave: 39 days to get out there and win it for Britain pic.twitter.com/9Row6MFCr7
— Nicholas Watt (@nicholaswatt) March 30, 2015
Updated
One of our readers is concerned about Ed Miliband’s lack of red ties. In a letter to the Guardian, Nicholas Whitmore writes:
Am I the only person to be profoundly depressed by Ed Miliband’s inability to wear a red tie on big occasions, for example when responding to the budget, and when being interviewed by Jeremy Paxman?
Might this decide the fate of the Labour Party?
Updated
We’d have no news, nebula!
Osborne was also asked about Jeremy Hunt’s promise that the NHS would receive an extra £8bn pounds worth of funding. He refused to say that’s a cast-iron commitment, but said:
“We’re absolutely committed to funding the NHS. We had a choice 5 years ago, we could have cut the NHS, but we decided to increase funding.”
Did I hear @George_Osborne make half a pledge on disabled benefits & half a reverse ferret on the NHS funding pledge @Jeremy_Hunt just made?
— Cathy Newman (@cathynewman) March 30, 2015
Updated
Osborne says Tories will not publish details of planned welfare cuts until after the election
George Osborne has just appeared on Channel 4 News, where he told Cathy Newman that there’s a clear choice in this election, his party, or “the chaos and tax increases and debt of Ed Miliband”.
Newman brought up the IFS dismissing the Conservatives’ claim that a Labour government would cost each family an additional £3000 in taxes and asked whether it is this bandying around of figures that brings politics into disrepute. Osborne responded:
The figure is based on how Labour have voted and Miliband’s comments.
Five years [after forming a government] we have a record number of people in work and delivered economic security, we can either continue the plan that’s been working or go back to the chaos of the past.
Newman pointed out that the Tories say we have a right to know about taxes, so shouldn’t we also know what the Conservatives’ £12bn worth of welfare cuts will involve?
Osborne:
Our package is balanced. We will make sure that our national debt continues to fall, getting more money from rich people and saving money from welfare.
The chancellor was pushed to say what these cuts would be, and asked whether he agrees with Iain Duncan Smith that an explanation is not relevant. He responded:
It would be unbalanced package if you left out welfare.
Newman:
I agree, that’s why people want to know what will be cut.
Osborne:
Our welfare reforms in this parliament have delivered a fair society. We know we can do this fairly.
Newman:
Okay, but neither the prime minister or Iain Duncan Smith knew where the full extent of the cuts will come from, as chancellor you must.
Osborne:
We have a track record of real welfare reform.
Newman:
Disabled people watching this programme are worried about benefits cut.
Osborne:
In this parliament we’ve increased payment to the most disabled. Our values are to protect the most vulnerable.
Newman:
So no cuts to disability benefits?
Osborne:
In this parliament we’ve increased benefits to disabled.
Oh my God, George. Answer the question.
Updated
Why not. Let’s get Noel Gallagher on.
Probably illegal under election law, but wouldn't it be interesting to subject all party election broadcasts to the @C4Gogglebox treatment?
— Jonathan Isaby (@isaby) March 30, 2015
Updated
If anyone’s been wondering how the parties compare on the number of female MPs, May2015.com’s Barbara Speed has written an article about just that. It includes the news that Ukip are actually fielding more candidates named Dave or Peter than women.
At the moment, the Greens are predicted to keep their single seat in Brighton Pavilion, so they are in first place with 100 per cent female MPs (not much of a stat that…).
Labour is set to have a 43 per cent female party on current polls. This is despite the fact that only 26 per cent of the candidates they’re fielding in 2015 are women. Female candidates have been deployed in key, winnable seats, but this means their total is very volatile – the more marginals they win, the better their gender representation will be after the election.
Only 15 per cent of the Tories’ candidates are women, and on current polls would be 19 per cent female.
The Liberal Democrats are set to lose a huge number of MPs, including all their female MPs, but they are set to pick up one in Hazel Grove, bringing their proportion to 4 per cent (down from 12).
The SNP are fielding a high proportion of female candidates (36 per cent), but they are disproportionately in seats they are less likely to win, so 29 per cent of the party is set to be female – in-line with parliament’s proportion as a whole.
Ukip’s candidates are only ten per cent female, making them the worst of the major parties (the party actually are fielding more candidates named Dave or Peter than it did women).
Some photos from Edinburgh earlier today:
Proclamation in Edinburgh of dissolution of Parliament #ge2015 pic.twitter.com/KHrPfNF00p
— Laura Bicker (@BBCLBicker) March 30, 2015
John McDonnell, the chair of the Socialist Campaign Group of Labour MPs and former leadership contender, has said that up to 40 Labour MPs would vote against a budget or spending review that includes cuts. As the New Statesman reports, McDonnell said there has been a shift in the Labour leadership’s thinking and recognised an alternative needed to be offered instead of an “austerity-lite” approach.
I think it will be clear from pressure coming back from constituencies and individual MPs that we need a Labour government quickly making a change.
Coming in with arguments that you’re going to cut services, not necessarily as much as the Tories, but you will still be cutting services, I think that argument is beginning to creak, I think that argument is beginning to fade.
Increasingly now, the Labour leadership has recognised that, actually, you can tackle the deficit over a longer period of time, that way you avoid any cuts whatsoever.
More importantly, you can tackle it by making our tax system fairer and that means tackling tax evasion and tax avoidance.
Grant Shapps has responded:
This is the true face of Ed Miliband’s Labour Party - they’re addicted to more wasteful spending and more taxes.
If Ed Miliband becomes Prime Minister he’ll be carried there by Alex Salmond, bankrolled by Len McCluskey and pushed around by his own backbenchers. It would cause chaos for Britain.
The SNP have responded to Gordon Brown’s claims that their measures are deficient and that Labour are the party of social justice. Stewart Hosie, the SNP’s Treasury spokesman, said:
This is a ludicrous claim from Gordon Brown, which no one in Scotland will believe - and the fact Labour are pinning their hopes on someone who has now retired from frontline politics speaks volumes about their desperation.
The 2015/16 budget has already been set and of course will be in effect by the time the new UK government takes office.
The SNP has been totally consistent in opposing Westminster cuts while Grown Brown campaigned shoulder-to-shoulder with the Tories in the referendum to ensure that Scotland’s budget is determined by Westminster - and Labour MPs have since voted with the Tories for a further 30 billion in cuts.
This announcement is almost entirely recycled from recent Labour funding announcements and it is insulting the people of Scotland to think they won’t see through it.
A strong group of SNP MPs at Westminster can ensure that Scotland’s voice is heard and use our influence positively to end the cuts, free Scotland of Trident nuclear weapons and secure the powers we need to build a fairer, more prosperous country.
Here’s our Guardian video of Boris Johnson on the election campaign trail.
Nigel Farage has said he has had informal conversations with Tory MPs about going into a coalition together.
Farage tells me he has informal conversations 'all the time' with conservatives about working with them post May
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) March 30, 2015
Farage full quotes pic.twitter.com/pBfJRtIehf
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) March 30, 2015
My colleague Rowena Mason has written about the Ukip launch, where Farage was also challenged about whether the campaign, featuring his own face prominently, shows Ukip as too much of a one-man band. Farage responded:
Yes, it is my face on the pledge card – I am the leader of the party. All this one-man band business, it’s better than a no-man band.
Sadiq Khan has just appeared on Iain Dale’s show on LBC, where he discussed immigration, and, indadvertedly, economic growth under Labour. Here’s a snippet of that conversation.
Iain Dale:
But can you not give Ben an indication of what you think roughly the right number should be? Not with any commitment as to sticking to that number, but what I think you’re saying, Ben, is that if there are 250,000, 300,000 people coming in every year, over a five year parliament that’s an extra one and a half million people into the country. At some point, that’s going to have to stop isn’t it?
Sadiq Khan:
Let me tell you the challenge with that question you have asked, which is obviously a good question. It’s because we don’t know whether there will be growth, or whether employers will need more immigrant workers to do the work who are high skilled, or whether there won’t be.
Tory sources claim this was Khan admitting he didn’t know if there would be any economic growth under a future Labour government at all. In my opinion, what Khan meant was we can’t predict what the growth rate will be.
Here’s more from Osborne’s appearance on BBC News, where he said the majority of businesses want EU reform:
When it comes to what the business community want, they couldn’t have been clearer - they support the plan that is delivering those extra jobs and when it comes to the European Union, actually the majority of British businesses want that reformed Europe that David Cameron and the Conservatives are fighting for.
And again you can see it, people vote - when it comes to businesses - with their plants and their factories and where they create jobs, and this economy is attracting the jobs, this economy, the investment.
On the plan for an in-out EU referendum, he added:
People have known our policy for some time now and since we announced this policy we’ve had the lion’s share of investment from across the entire European Union, and in the end a business wouldn’t come here and create jobs, wouldn’t create factories, if it thought they didn’t like our policies.
And on Labour’s “unravelling” advertisement, he said:
What they do quibble with is signing up to a Labour Party ad because the Labour Party economic plan - not just on Europe but on tax and on an anti-business policy and on anti-jobs policies - I think takes this country back to chaos.
What’s the first stop of Nick Clegg’s election campaign tour? A hedgehog sanctuary. The deputy prime minister has gone to the Brueton Park nature reserve to see a hedgehog who can only walk in circles after an injury. The Telegraph’s Matt Holehouse reports:
Clegg meets hedgehogs in Solihull. What time of year do they semi-hibernate, he asks pic.twitter.com/2QpwZiPeFi
— Matthew Holehouse (@mattholehouse) March 30, 2015
This hedgehog suffered a head injury that left it walking in circles. Are they sociable, asks Clegg pic.twitter.com/PuExDXPjI9
— Matthew Holehouse (@mattholehouse) March 30, 2015
The hedgehog is called Humpty, as it fell off a wall. "Theyve got lovely little faces," says Ashdown pic.twitter.com/zeXpgkwGrn
— Matthew Holehouse (@mattholehouse) March 30, 2015
Commentators were quick to share their thoughts about the visit on social media.
Can someone tell Nick Clegg that visiting a hedgehog sanctuary isn’t a political event, it’s a school trip
— Mark Ferguson (@Markfergusonuk) March 30, 2015
At the Sanctuary, Clegg also found time to insist that the Lib Dems can defy the polls. He said:
What you have got to ask is how are we doing in those 50, 60 seats where we have MPs, we have campaigners, we have councillors. There, the picture is completely different to the national snapshot polls because there people hear the Liberal Democrat side of the story - which is one we are very proud of - which is about a plucky party stepping up to the plate back in May 2010 when the country desperately needed it.
Updated
Fresh off the back of Cameron attacking Miliband outside Downing Street earlier today, the Labour leader has warned that the Tories are set to make things personal in a “very negative campaign”. As the Press Association reports:
[Miliband] told Bloomberg Television that David Cameron is “in a very defensive, flustered, negative frame of mind”.
Mr Miliband claimed the Tory leader would throw “lots of stuff at me”, but asserted that this showed his opponent was “worried”.
The Labour leader said that while Mr Cameron was fretting about losing his job, he was going “stay focused on the British people”.
Updated
Despite the IFS rebuking the claim that Labour plans would cost families £3,000, the Conservatives have just released this.
The price of Labour: £3,028 extra tax for every working family. RETWEET to let friends know. pic.twitter.com/uIOidGe2gx
— Conservatives (@Conservatives) March 30, 2015
During his appearance on BBC news, that Andrew wrote about below, George Osborne also discussed the Conservatives’ policy on Europe.
I don’t think you can ever say it’s a risk to ask the British people their views, I call that a democracy.... and when it comes to the business community, they couldn’t be clearer, they support the plan.
Hi all, Nadia here. Stay tuned for all of this evening’s political developments, as we tie up all the news from the first day of the general election campaign. I’m on Twitter @nadiakhomami and I’ll be reading your comments below the line as well.
To start us off, here’s a video that Sky News have published toasting the launch of the campaign. If 7 May doesn’t turned out as planned, then there’s always Eurovision – though perhaps not an option for Farage.
Afternoon summary
-
George Osborne, the chancellor, has told BBC News that he stands by the Conservative claim that Labour plans would cost families £3,000.
Everybody knows, if you get a Labour prime minister like Ed Miliband, they will pay more taxes. And that is a reasonable estimate of the extra taxes that people will pay over the coming parliament.
He spoke after the Institute for Fiscal Studies said the claim was unfounded. (See 2.23pm.)
- Labour has recruited two big-name actors, the Hobbit star Martin Freeman and the former Doctor Who David Tennant, to front its first party election broadcast.
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Lord Ashcroft has released a poll showing the Conservatives two points ahead of Labour. It also suggests that the Tories have gained more than Labour over the last week. Following ComRes (see 9.33am), and Populus, that means the three most recent polls have shown the Conservatives gaining since the end of last week, although a YouGov poll on Sunday gave Labour a post-Paxman bounce. But Ashcroft did find some positive news for Labour.
In other questions I found a small shift in underlying attitudes in favour of Ed Miliband and Labour. David Cameron still well ahead of his main opponent on most of the attributes I tested – representing Britain abroad, making the right decisions even when they are unpopular, having a clear idea what he wants to achieve, being able to lead a team, and doing the job overall – but by a smaller margin than when I last asked in early February. Miliband has extended his lead on “understanding ordinary people”.
That’s all from me for today.
My colleague Nadia Khomami is now taking over for the rest of the evening.
Sorry. After saying he had “no plans” to stand for the Ukip leadership, Mark Reckless did make it clear that he was not interested in the job. I’ve amended my earlier post accordingly. See 4.51pm.
Updated
More from Henry McDonald in Northern Ireland, on launches from the SDLP and Sinn Fein.
The nationalist SDLP in Northern Ireland today offered conditional support for Ed Milliband and Labour in a hung parliament.
Alasdair McDonnell, leader and one of the party’s three MPs, said their price for propping up a minority Milliband administration would be “to keep Labour true to its values.”
Although a fellow member of the Socialist International, the Social Democratic Labour Party does not, as some might imagine, take the Labour whip in the Commons.
As McDonnell, the MP for South Belfast, points out the SDLP voted against the Iraq War and 42 day detention a well as the 10p tax rate cut - all policies of New Labour or else received the party’s backing in parliament.
“If Ed Miliband, it will be with out support, on our terms that he takes power,” McDonnell said.
Whether SDLP backing can tilt a minority Labour government in a leftward direction is open to question but McDonnell (just like his Democratic Unionist opponents) sees a chance to extract fiscal goodies from such an outcome.
Gerry Adams, Sinn Fein President, has said all the parties at Westminster support austerity.
Launching a “people’s pact” for the general election, Adams said: “Any parties which contemplate endorsing or supporting a cabinet of millionaires who are behind budget cuts, cuts to public services and cuts to social protections are ignoring the needs of the people in favour of narrow self-interest.”
There was of course no sign whatsover from the party’s press conference at Belfast Castle that Sinn Fein will drop its boycott of the House of Commons even though they currently have 5 MPs that could wield some influence after 7 May.
At the launch of Ukip’s pledge card Nigel Farage said that all other issues were “irrelevant” compared to Europe.
Unless we govern our own country, frankly many other debates are frankly irrelevant.
Mark Reckless, the former Tory who is now a Ukip MP, was at the event and said that he had “no plans” to try to become Ukip’s leader.
I have no plans to stand for the leadership ... There is no vacancy ... I believe [Farage] is going to win Thanet South. I believe he will stay as our leader for many, many more years and lead our party to greater and greater heights.
“No plans” means, of course, that one day he would like to be Ukip leader. If Reckless was really not interested in the job, he would say something similar to what Douglas Carswell said when he was asked about this.
UPDATE AT 4.58PM: Sorry, that was wrong. Rowena Mason says that, after using the “no plans” line, Reckless later ruled out standing for Ukip leader. Reckless said:
I would go beyond that and take that word back - it’s not a good one - and say it’s not for me. It’s not for me at all.
Updated
Earlier I said it was unusual to hear a prime minister attack his opponent in Downing Street after seeing the Queen in the way David Cameron trashed Ed Miliband earlier. (See 1.06pm.)
According to PoliticsHome’s Paul Waugh, it has not happened for 10 elections.
Factoid: Cameron was 1st PM in 10 elections to attack his opponent on steps of Downing Street after calling the election
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) March 30, 2015
@Steven_Swinford there's suggestion Heath may have indirectly had pop at Wilson but sounds unlikely (hvnt seen words). Maybe a Cameron First
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) March 30, 2015
Here are some more pictures from today’s election campaign.
Ashcroft poll gives Tories 2-pt lead
Lord Ashcroft has released his weekly poll. It puts the Conservatives two points ahead.
And Ukip are on their lowest level since Ashcroft started his regular national polls last May.
Updated
According to William Hill, a customer has bet £10,000 on the Conservatives getting a majority. At 11/2, that would make a profit of £55,000. Hills have now cut the odds from 11/2 to 9/2.
Here is Stefan Rousseau, the Press Association’s chief political photographer’s, picture of the day.
Election Photo du Jour: @David_Cameron at No10 after seeing the Queen to announce GE campaign. By Stefan Rousseau/PA pic.twitter.com/QBSp0OleLe
— Stefan Rousseau (@StefanRousseau) March 30, 2015
Updated
And here’s Chris Leslie, the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, on the IFS verdict on the Conservatives’ claim about Labour’s tax plans. (See 2.23pm.)
This is a disastrous and embarrassing start to David Cameron’s campaign. Within hours of making totally false claims about Labour on the steps of Downing Street, the independent IFS has totally undermined them.
As the IFS has said, tax and benefit changes by the Tories since 2010 have cost households an average of £1,100 a year. And they say that the Conservative Party’s plans for the future would mean substantially bigger spending cuts or tax increases. The whole country knows that these extreme plans will mean the Tories end up raising VAT again and cutting the NHS if they get another five years.
Here’s a Lib Dem spokesman on the Ukip pledge card. (See 3.44pm.)
Ukip’s pledge card should instead be a P45 for each of three million people whose jobs benefit from our membership of the EU.
Ukip unveils pledge card
Nigel Farage’s Ukip pledge launch was a bit of a scrum. My colleague Rowena Mason was there, and sent me this.
Ukip leader Nigel Farage brushed off suggestions his party is losing momentum as he unveiled five key pledges on leaving the EU, controlling immigration, more cash for the NHS, cutting foreign aid, and easing tax for those on the minimum wage. He held the launch in the middle of a road Smith Square, Westminster, flanked by policy chief Suzanne Evans, economics spokesman Patrick O’Flynn and MP Mark Reckless - but no Douglas Carswell.
Standing in front of a lorry bearing his own face, while mobbed by cameras, he said: “This pledge card shows you pretty clearly what Ukip is for. Interestingly, we’ve got a completely distinctive plan from the other political parties. We are the only party saying Britain should have a trade relationship with Europe but not membership of the EU. We are the only party offering a solution to the immigration crisis. The other parties want to stay as members of the EU cannot offer that. Directly as a consequence we are the only party that could promise £3bn more for the NHS without adding to borrowing. We are the only party saying we don’t think Britain being the biggest giver foreign aid is a proud national achievement. We view it rather as a waste of money.”
Updated
Here’s a Guardian video of Nick Clegg saying he thinks the era of single party government is over.
John McDonnell, the Labour leftwinger, has told the New Statesman that he would vote against any Labour budget including cuts and that “a bloc of 30-40 left MPs” would force Ed Miliband to make concessions.
He also said he expected the party would have to relax its stance on austerity.
The first row will be around austerity unless we get this right ... I think it will change, inevitably it will change ... I think it will be clear from pressure coming back from constituencies and individual MPs that we need a Labour government quickly making a change.
In Belfast the Alliance party has launched its campaign. My colleague Henry McDonald has sent me this.
The anti-sectarian Alliance Party are first out of the traps to launch their general campaign in Northern Ireland in the bitterly contested seat of East Belfast.
Alliance’s Naomi Long became the party’s first ever MP when she unseated First Minister Peter Robinson in the 2010 Westminster election.
At the Park Avenue Hotel in the east of the city today, Long said her victory five years ago “was an important marker for progressive politics” in the region.
But the MP alluded to a key issue that could galvanise her unionist opponents into defeating her this time around - the flying of the union flag over Belfast City Hall.
Alliance councillors backed a compromise on the city council aimed at switching the policy of flying the Union Jack 365 days per year to just 18 designated days such as the Queen’s two birthdays. That change enraged grassroots unionists some of whom took part in violent protests including attacks on the Alliance’s constituency headquarters in East Belfast.
Martin Freeman, star of The Hobbit, Sherlock and The Office, is presenting the Labour party election broadcast going out tonight.
And David Tennant, the former Doctor Who, is doing the voice over.
Paddy Ashdown, the former Lib Dem leader and head of his party’s election campaign, has been speaking to reporters on the Lib Dem battlebus. He said he expected the Lib Dem poll ratings to rise:
Would I like to be a point or so higher in the opinion polls? Of course I would. But the Liberals always start off in the low teens and build during the election. We will see whether that happens - by any rational judgment I think it will.
But all other circumstances are pretty well exactly where I would wish them to be. We’ve got a very clear message and I think it’s a message that has resonance and traction.
Only a point, or so higher, Paddy? You’ll need a bit more than that to catch up with 2010.
Updated
IFS says Tory claim about Labour's tax plans unfounded
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has now published a post on its website debunking the Conservative claim that Labour plans would lead to families paying an extra £3,000 in tax. It is a claim that David Cameron used in his Number 10 statement today. (See 12.39pm.) On the World at One Paul Johnson, the IFS director, said it was “unhelpful”. The IFS article goes slightly further, effectively saying the Conservative claim is unfounded.
Here’s the conclusion
It is also not entirely clear – at least to us – when Labour would want to achieve current budget balance. Their oft-stated goal is to eliminate the current budget deficit by, at the latest, the end of the parliament. If that’s all they want to achieve they may need no tax increases or real terms spending cuts – beyond those planned for 2015–16 – at all. But that is later than implied by their having signed up to the Charter for Budget Responsibility. If they take that commitment seriously then they at least need to aim to get to current budget balance by 2018–19. If that’s what they want then they will require about £6 billion of spending cuts or tax increases.
There is real uncertainty about what path the Labour party want to follow for the public finances. The Conservatives have been clearer about what they want to achieve, but they have not been clear about how they would achieve it. They would require substantially bigger spending cuts or tax increases than Labour.
There is little value in bandying around numbers which suggest either party would increases taxes by an average of £3,000 for each working household. We don’t know what they will do after the election. But neither of the two main parties has said anything to suggest that is what they are planning.
Updated
Lunchtime summary
- David Cameron has launched the general election campaign with a warning in Downing Street that the British people face a stark choice between a safe and secure future under the Tories or economic chaos under Labour. In a piece of election theatre which is no longer necessary, because of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act – but which nevertheless emphasises his standing as an incumbent prime minister – he paid a visit on the Queen at Buckingham Palace before making a short statement outside Number 10 saying Ed Miliband would bring “economic chaos”.
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Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, has dismissed Conservative claims that Labour policies would lead to families paying £3,000 more in tax as unhelpful. Asked about the claim, which Cameron used in his statement outside Number 10, on the World at One, Johnson said:
The Conservatives have had to make quite a lot of assumptions to get quite such a big number. The first thing to bear in mind is this is not an annual number. This is a number that is cumulated over at least four years so they are not claiming that this is the amount of additional tax you have to pay in any one year. And they are also only taking working households – so they are getting a big number and dividing it by a relatively small number of households.
The second point is they have assumed that Labour is going to follow a certain set of fiscal targets. Actually Labour has been pretty vague about exactly what fiscal targets it will try and achieve, but what the Conservatives assumed is that Labour want to get to a current budget balance by 2017 – so that requires a set of cuts or tax rises by then.
And then thirdly, they have assumed that they will do half of that through the tax system rather than through cutting spending ...
If you simply say it’s a £3,000 increase in taxes, certainly think it’s unhelpful.
- Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, has slapped down Labour’s vice election chair for suggesting the party could borrow more for investment.
Yesterday Lucy Powell told the Sunday Politics that Labour was committed to balancing the books for day-to-day spending but that there could be “some investment borrowing” under its fiscal rules. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has said this could allow the party to borrow as much as £30bn, and the Conservatives have been treating that figure as a firm spending commitment. But Balls said that there were no plans in the manifesto for extra spending that would require extra borrowing. Speaking at the launch of Labour’s business manifesto, he said:
We have said very clearly we are going to get the current budget not only into balance but surplus in the next parliament - more than covering day-to-day spending.
We’re going to get the national debt falling in the next parliament and we will do that as soon as we can in the next parliament
And because we will inherit a deficit which is going to be very large, there are no proposals in our manifesto which will involve any additional spending - current spending or investment spending - that will need to be covered by additional borrowing.
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Labour has played down complaints from some firms about their being quoted in a Labour advert in today’s Financial Times warning about the risks posed by the planned Conservatives referendum on the EU. The Conservatives have doing their best to stir up the row (and they’ve succeeded - it was near the top of the lunchtime BBC news, even though the firms are not disputing the quotes, and Labour never claimed the firms were backing the party.) Chuka Umunna, the shadow business secretary, said:
We spoke to all the businesses who were quoted in the advertisement and all we have done is cite what they have said publicly ... I think this is a little bit of a storm in a tea cup. If you make public statements about important areas of public policy.
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Nick Clegg, the Lib Dem leader, has predicted a second coalition. He said:
It is my view that the era of single-party government is now over in British politics.
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The Green party has sought to capitalise on the backlash generated by Labour producing mugs promoting its plans for controls on migration by selling an alternative. A party spokesman said:
Labour know the real life effects of cheap rhetoric on immigration, and it’s a great shame to see them lower the tone of the debate. The Green Party want a fair, humane and controlled migration system that celebrates, rather than demonises, migrants in this country. Attacking migrants for this country’s problems really is a mug’s game.
- Gordon Brown, the Labour former prime minister, has said Labour would spend £800m more on services in Scotland than the SNP.
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Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, has said she would rather see the Tories run a minority government than enter a second coalition. She said:
I think I would prefer a minority government, and we’ve seen in Scotland how that can work. A Tory majority doesn’t look likely right now ... but we are working towards it, and we will continue to do so.
Updated
Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, told the World at One a few minutes ago that the Tory claim that Labour would raise taxes on every working family by £3,000 was not very helpful because it was based on such spurious assumptions. Grant Shapps, the Conservative chairman, subsequently appeared on the programme and effectively tried to deny that Johnson had said this. I’ll post the quotes soon.
Updated
My colleague Libby Brooks spoke to Gordon Brown at the Labour launch in Glasgow. Brown told her that the SNP’s claim to be a party of social justice had been exposed.
Once people see the detail: let’s be honest, there is no more money for the national health service in Scotland for the coming year other than by cuts from somewhere else. Zero additional spending means zero additional spending. It couldn’t be clearer. The important thing that people will come to realise is that it’s all talk, bluster and rhetoric.
He added:
The reason why the SNP talk about coalitions and deals all the time is that the can’t actually afford to talk about the real social issues because they don’t have the money or the policies to deal with them.
The questions that people ask me are about housing, health, education and employment and once we start talking about the real issues people will find that the SNP measures are deficient, that they can’t end austerity with their measures, or they can’t deal with the poverty that they keep talking about.
I’m asking people to support Labour not only because it’s the only way to get a Labour government but because only a Labour government will deliver the social justice I’m talking about.
Updated
And here’s a Guardian video of Nigel Farage promoting the Ukip pledge card.
Here’s the Guardian video of Ed Miliband speaking at the launch of the Labour business manifesto earlier.
ITV has announced the order in which the seven leaders taking part in Thursday’s debate will stand. Guido Fawkes has helpfully mocked it up.
Cameron’s statement - What it shows
A YouGov poll yesterday may have identified a modest uptick in Ed Miliband’s ratings since the Paxman interviews, but the Tories are still convinced he’s a vote loser. That is the key thing we learnt from David Cameron’s statement.
Cameron mentioned Miliband by name three times. He laid it on thick, reasserting his claim that Miliband would bring “economic chaos”:
You can choose [Cameron and the Conservatives] ...
Or you can choose the economic chaos of Ed Miliband’s Britain — over £3000 in higher taxes for every working family to pay for more welfare and out of control spending. Debt will rise and jobs will be lost as a result. Ed Miliband pays lip service to working people while planning to hike taxes and increase debt.
There is nothing unusual about the sentiment. The Conservatives decided some time ago to frame the election as a choice between Conservative “competence” and Labour “chaos”. But it was strange to hear a prime minister name-check an opponent so blatantly. The office of prime minister grants the holder a modicum of gravitas, and normally, in a setting like this, premiers are reluctant to concede that the opposition leader is even in contention.
Constitutional purists may object, too, to Cameron choosing to make this statement where he did. The podium outside Number 10 is not exactly a sacred spot, but it is a venue normally reserved for the more austere announcements a prime minister has to make, not grubby politicking.
Cameron, though, can’t afford the luxury of statesmanship. His situation is perilous, and he has decided that Miliband-bashing offers him his best hope. So Miliband-bashing it had to be.
Updated
David Cameron's No 10 statement - Full text
Here is the full text of David Cameron’s statement outside Number 10.
The ellipses (dots) are from the original text; Cameron likes using them in the text of his speeches to show him where he needs to pause.
I have just had an Audience with Her Majesty the Queen, following the dissolution of Parliament.
The General Election will be held on May 7th. Until that day I will be going to all four corners and all four nations of our United Kingdom, with one clear message. Together we are turning our country around ...... and for the sake of you, your family, and your children’s future ...... we have got to see this through.
Five years ago, when I walked through that black door, millions of people were unemployed, there was no economic security for our families and there were worries about whether our country could pay its debts …… Britain was on the brink.
Five years later, because of our long-term economic plan and the difficult decisions we have taken …… we have more people in work in our country than at any time in our history, living standards are on the rise and we are more economically secure. Of course we haven’t fixed everything, but Britain is back on its feet again. 1000 jobs are being created every single day. Three quarters of a million more businesses have started up. Last year our economy grew faster than any other major advanced economy in the world. That means more people getting that job offer and more families hopeful of a better future.
This election also takes place at a time when the world is dangerous and uncertain. So we need strong leadership to safeguard our national security as well as our economic security.
That’s why in thirty eight days time you face a stark choice. The next prime minister walking through that door will be me or Ed Miliband. You can choose an economy that grows, that creates jobs, that generates the money to ensure a properly funded and improving NHS ...… a government that will cut taxes for thirty million hardworking people …… and a country that is safe and secure.
Or you can choose the economic chaos of Ed Miliband’s Britain — over £3000 in higher taxes for every working family to pay for more welfare and out of control spending. Debt will rise and jobs will be lost as a result. Ed Miliband pays lip service to working people while planning to hike taxes and increase debt. After five years of effort and sacrifice, Britain is on the right track. This election is about moving forward - and as prime minister here at Number 10 that is what I will deliver. Thank you.
UPDATE: And here’s the Guardian video of Cameron.
Updated
Cameron says the world is uncertain. He will offer security.
The next prime minister will be him, or Ed Miliband.
You can choose me, he says. Or you can choose “the economic chaos of Ed Miliband”, with more spending, and £3,000 in higher taxes for everyone.
And that’s it. I will post the full words shortly.
Cameron says he wants to create more jobs, cut more jobs, build more homes, have better schools and provide dignity and security for the elderly.
David Cameron says he has just had an audience with the Queen. The election will be on 7 May. Between now and then he will go to all four corners of the country with one message: we are turning the country around, and we must see that through.
Five years ago “Britain was on the brink”.
Now, because of the long-term economic plan and the difficult decisions taken, more people are in work than ever before and living standards are rising.
David Cameron's statement outside No 10
David Cameron is about to speak outside Number 10.
Updated
And David Cameron has just got into his car to leave Buckingham Palace.
Updated
Nick Clegg has just arrived at Buckingham Palace.
Gordon Brown has been speaking at a Scottish Labour. My colleague Libby Brooks has the highlights.
Gordon Brown tells @scottishlabour audience that it's first time for a while he's in campaign not as a candidate but as a volunteer #GE2015
— Libby Brooks (@libby_brooks) March 30, 2015
Gordon Brown: while others want to talk coalitions, we will spend our time discussing w ppl what really matters pic.twitter.com/VqDNyS61qX
— Libby Brooks (@libby_brooks) March 30, 2015
Gordon Brown pledges £800 million more to Scotland if Labour elected: and shows his working #GE2015
— Libby Brooks (@libby_brooks) March 30, 2015
Gordon Brown says SNP have signed up to zero additional spending 2015-16: "this is the Tory/SNP sell-out of the people of Scotland"
— Libby Brooks (@libby_brooks) March 30, 2015
Gordon Brown: only in the last day have the SNP accepted that they have to follow Labour in raising top rate of tax
— Libby Brooks (@libby_brooks) March 30, 2015
Gordon Brown: let us make this the social justice election & tell ppl Labour is party of fairness not the SNP pic.twitter.com/XzQlmRBeh9
— Libby Brooks (@libby_brooks) March 30, 2015
It looks like there could be a hold-up for Nick Clegg at Buckingham Palace.
So @adamboultonSKY has pointed out that the DPM @nick_clegg is in the car on the way to see HMT, and @David_Cameron hasn't left yet...
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) March 30, 2015
From the Queen to Heat magazine ... you can tell there’s an election on.
Prime Minister @David_Cameron takes on his toughest interview yet - the #PMDoesHeat, out tomorrow! https://t.co/GQc3hmiLAw
— heat & heatworld.com (@heatworld) March 30, 2015
In Scotland the Conservatives have been launching their election campaign. My colleague Severin Carrell has sent me this.
The Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson has launched her party’s election campaign by making an explicit appeal to centreground Scottish voters, insisting her party was the champion of the family in tough times, “the little guy” and the jobless.
Accusing her critics and opponents of peddling “utter nonsense” about their record: “I’m going to take the fight to our opponents in this campaign. I’m not prepared to see our record trashed by half truths and lazy assertion.”
Speaking at the Dynamic Earth geological sciences centre next to the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh, Davidson reeled off a raft of statistics, claiming the Tories had put 174,000 people back in work in Scotland; got 56,700 people off benefits and seen 37,600 new businesses start up since 2010.
Aiming directly at some of the key economic issues pushed by Labour and the SNP, she said a UK government under the Tories should stop zero hours contracts if workers were being exploited; and would raise the minimum wage (without naming a figure).
The Scottish Tories, currently languishing with just one MP in Scotland, believe they can win several more, targetting the former Lib Dem Scotland Secretary Michael Moore in the Borders in particular. Of all the no campaign parties in the referendum, it is the only one who’s vote has remained firm, at about 16-18% in the polls.
Q: Some of the firms quoted in your FT advert, Siemens, Kellogg’s and Nomura, are unhappy about being quoted by you.
Miliband says Labour has just quoted what they said in public.
Miliband says Labour donors sometimes have different views. That is not the same as the situation in the Conservative party, where they are expected to say the same thing.
He also says that he is advocating a pro-business approach but not a business-as-usual approach.
For example, most businesses support the party’s plans to reform the energy sector, and to reform banking, he says.
Q: The Institute for Fiscal Studies says that, under your plan just to balance the current budget, excluding capital spending, you could be spending an extra £30bn more than the Tories.
Miliband says Ed Balls answered that point earlier.
Back at the Labour launch, Ed Miliband is now taking media questions.
Q: Is there any limit to the amount of money you would borrow to invest? If so, what is it?
Miliband says he has a clear plan to cut borrowing.
Ed Balls says business understands the importance of investment. Labour has said it would get the current budget into surplus, and the national debt falling. And there are no plans in the manifesto for spending - current spending or capital spending - that would require borrowing.
He says George Osborne’s plans for an absolute surplus (ie, not just one on current spending, but covering capital spending too) are extreme. They would lead to taxes going up for ordinary people.
Miliband says that the Tories would make spending cuts, but that they would not cut the deficit. That is what has happened in this parliament.
Cameron leaves No 10 to go to see the Queen
David Cameron is leaving Number 10 now to go to see the Queen.
Nick Clegg has left the Cabinet Office and is also on his way to the Palace.
Updated
Q: What would you do to promote financial inclusion?
Miliband says this is really important. It is a great injustice that the poorest people in society pay the most for credit, and for energy too. Credit unions have a big role to play.
He says he would like to see more cooperation between banks and credit unions.
Q: What do you think about quotas for women on FTSE 100 boards?
Chuka Umunna says he would prefer to take a voluntary approach. But, if there is no progress, he won’t rule out a more proscriptive approach.
He says he supports the government’s move to make companies report on their gender balance, but he says Labour would introduce the same approach for ethnic diversity too. He says Mervyn Davies will do a review for Labour on ethnic diversity in business.
Updated
Q: Will you keep the equity part of Help to Buy?
Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, says the new build part of Help to Buy has been valuable. The other aspects have been improved, but he would not want them to become permanent. Help to Buy does not address the supply side problems. But, where Help to Buy helps promote the building of new homes, Labour will keep it.
On the panel at the launch are: Rachel Reeves, Chuka Umunna, Miliband, Balls, Caroline Flint and Douglas Alexander .
Updated
Miliband's Q&A
Ed Miliband is now taking questions.
Q: You say there will be no referendum without a plan to transfer powers to Brussels. Why have an in/out referendum in that case? Why not just have a referendum on the new powers (ie, a referendum on the status quo, versus the new proposal, not an in/out referendum).
Miliband says he thinks any plan to transfer powers would be unlikely. But, if that were to happen, he thinks an in/out referendum would be the right one to have.
(He does not explain why.)
Miliband says the idea that the threat of Britain leaving the EU will make getting concessions more likely is “nonsense”. When Chancellor Merkel sees David Cameron coming with demands, she does not think he is there to solve problems in Europe. She thinks he is there to solve problems in the Conservative party. And solving problems in the Conservative party is not her job.
Miliband says Tory EU policy represents threat to jobs and business
Miliband is now talking about Europe. He says Conservative plans represent “a clear and present danger to British jobs, British business, British families and British prosperity”.
Our long term future lies inside, not outside, the European Union.
There could be nothing worse for our country or for our great exporting businesses than playing political games with our membership of the EU.
David Cameron used to understand that.
But in the past five years our place in the European Union has become less and less secure.
He adds:
[Cameron] came to power promising to stop his party “banging on about Europe”.
Now if he carries on this way, he’ll have us inside the European Union banging on the door to leave.
Or even worse, outside the European Union, banging on the door to be let back in.
I want to be clear about what is at stake in this election for British business.
He has an arbitrary timetable, after a set of negotiations which require the agreement of 27 other member states.
He oversees a divided Conservative party, half of whom want to leave, and he is a prime minister who doesn’t seem to know his own mind.
And at the same time he promises a leadership contest in the Conservative party, with candidates vying against each other for who can be the most extreme on Europe.
It is a recipe for two years of uncertainty in which inward investment will drain away.
Two years of uncertainty in which businesses will not be able to plan for the future.
And two years of wasted opportunities for progress, for profit, for prosperity.
A clear and present danger to British jobs, British business, British families and British prosperity.
Updated
Here is the text of Miliband’s speech.
Ed Miliband speech launching Labour’s Business Manifesto: http://t.co/dlsgWdIiGL
— Labour Press Team (@labourpress) March 30, 2015
Miliband says he wants to close the productivity gap with the rest of the world.
For every hour worked, a British worker produces 20% less than a worker in a competitor county. The productivity gap is at its highest for a quarter of a century, he says.
He also highlights two Labour proposals specifically intended to address business concerns.
He says he wants to improve vocational education. He wants a gold-standard technical baccalaureate.
And Labour will establish a proper British investment bank.
Ed Miliband's speech
Ed Miliband is speaking at the Labour business manifesto launch now.
He says his plan is based on the idea that Britain will only succeed when every worker succeeds.
He wants to build on the great strength of British business.
And it will not throw business into years of uncertainty by threatening to leave the EU, he says.
Britain has world-leading firms.
Updated
Ukip seems to be cleansing its website. My colleague Rowena Mason has sent me this.
Ukip seem to have removed an entire page of policies from its website. It is the list that contains the idea of making immigrants and their dependants have private education for the first five years after entry, which was backed by Nigel Farage a couple of weeks ago.
It is not clear yet whether the “What We Stand For” document has met the same fate as Ukip’s 2010 manifesto papers, which disappeared from its website a couple of years ago. These went missing after Farage was questioned about some of the more bizarre ideas - such as enforcing proper dress in the theatre and making the Circle line circle again - which led him to dismiss the whole lot as nonsense and drivel.
Happily, the most recent deleted list of policies is still available on the Way Back Machine archive.
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Ed Miliband launches Labour's business manifest manifesto
Ed Miliband is about to launch Labour’s business manifesto.
He is speaking at the Bloomberg HQ in London. Bloomberg has a live feed.
Chuka Umunna, the shadow business secretary, is introducing Miliband. He says Labour has really integrated business in its policy making process.
He introduces two business speakers before Miliband starts: Paul Lindley, who founded the babyfood company Ella’s Kitchen; and Margaret Wood, who founded ICW, a windows company.
Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, was on ITV’s Good Morning Britain this morning.
On the @GMB couch this morning talking elections, a referendum, and the first day of the short campaign.. pic.twitter.com/9s1OVKJD3Q
— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) March 30, 2015
He accepted that Ukip had lost ground in the polls in recent months, but he said he still expected the party to win “a good number of seats”:
I’m a straight-talking person, I’m honest - Ukip are not going to win the general election. But you know what? No-one is going to win the general election. There will be nobody with a clear majority. The question is what parties will have enough power to coalesce around the other parties.
He added:
We have dipped a little bit over the last two months, but not markedly. What we have just passed through is the phoney war. The real battle starts today.
Updated
The Queen has got the pleasure audiences with both David Cameron and Nick Clegg today. You can’t complain that she doesn’t earn her allowance.
Traditionally the prime minister marks the start of a general election by going to see the Queen to seek the dissolution of parliament. But, under the Fixed-term Parliament Act, that is unnecessary, because the dissolution of parliament was ordained by law. It is dissolving today. But Number 10 seems to have taken the view that the drive up the Mall is a piece of election theatre worth preserving, and so Cameron will make the trip to the Palace later today. It will also give him an excuse to make a statement outside the door of Number 10 on his return.
Clegg, on the other hand, does seem to have a reasonable excuse for his visit to the Queen. As lord president of the council he is head of the privy council, and he is going to see Her Majesty for the final privy council meeting before the election. At the council, he will formally advise the Queen on the date for the summoning of the new parliament (18 May).
Updated
ITV has also released a ComRes poll for London. According to ITV, it suggests six Conservative seats could fall to Labour.
Here are the figures, and the shift since 2010.
Labour: 46% (up 9)
Conservatives: 32% (down 2)
Ukip: 9%
Lib Dems: 8% (down 14)
Greens: 4%
And in Scotland the Greens have actually launched their manifesto. My colleague Severin Carrell has sent me details.
The Scottish Green party has made itself the first in the Scottish election contest to launch its manifesto, choosing the aptly-named Serenity cafe in Edinburgh to argue for a £10 minimum wage, a new land tax to replace council tax, a ban fracking, a cap on corporate pay and renationalisation of the railways.
The Scottish Greens have seen their membership soar to over 8,500 on the back of their support for a yes vote in last September’s Scottish independence referendum, and are standing a record 31 general election candidates.
Maggie Chapman, the co-convenor of the SGP, said Scottish politics had been transformed. “The landscape of Scotland has changed beyond belief,” she said.
The Scottish Greens have two MSPs at Holyrood. In contrast to the English Green party’s optimism about winning more Commons seats, the Scottish party has no realistic chance of winning a Westminster seat. Even before the remarkable Scottish National party surge, the Scottish Greens has yet to build enough support to crack the first past the post electoral system for Westminster.
Natalie Bennett, the Green party leader, launched her party’s election campaign today saying the Greens would represent people “sick of business-as-usual politics”. She said:
This general election is the closest in a generation. It’s clear that people are sick of business-as-usual politics, and desperate for change. The Green party represents a real alternative to the politics and economics espoused by establishment politicians for decades.
She added:
Over the next few weeks Green candidates up and down the country will be sharing our message of hope. We’ll be the only party offering changes that genuinely reconfigure our economy to work for everyone, not just those at the top. We’re the only ones demanding a genuinely public NHS - free from profit-making companies. And, of course, we promise the bold steps required to tackle the looming climate crisis.
Updated
There are 38 days to go until the election. Here is today’s “election fact” from the Press Association.
Ahead of the 1950 general election the Liberal party made up for its lack of political pulling power with shrewd financial acumen. Liberals paid £5,000 to insure themselves with Lloyds of London. Under the agreed package they would be paid for all lost deposits after the first 50 up to 250. They actually lost 319 with 475 candidates and just nine MPs returned. This election left its mark on the party, which did not get back to contesting more than half the seats until 1974. In 1950 candidates polling less than 12.5% would lose their 150 deposit compared with 5% today with a 500 deposit.
There is also a separate Wales poll out today. It was carried out by YouGov for ITV.
As ITV reports, it is the first time for almost a year that Labour has hit 40% in Wales.
Here are the figures, and the changes from the 2010 election result.
Labour: 40% (up 4)
Conservatives: 25% (down 1)
Ukip: 14% (up 12)
Plaid Cymru: 11% (no change)
Lib Dems: 5% (down 15)
Greens: 5%
Ashdown says SNP want to 'burn Westminster down' and make it dysfunctional
Ken Livingstone was taking part in a (rather good) panel discussion with Paddy Ashdown and Michael Howard. Ashdown said that the SNP were coming to Westminster to “burn” it down.
The SNP has got one aim. They’re not coming south to help Westminster work, they’re coming south ... to burn Westminster down and to make the thing dysfunctional. I watched it happen in the Balkans, by the way. You first of all make it dysfunctional and then you have a case for breaking away.
I’ve taken the quote from PoliticsHome.
Updated
Livingstone says election will make pressure for PR 'irresistible'
Ken Livingstone, the Labour former mayor of London, told BBC News earlier that, after the election, pressure for proportional representation would become “irresistible”.
After this election the pressure for proportional representation is going to be irresistible. It’s completely wrong that you might get a few million people voting for Ukip or the Greens and they only get one or two seats in parliament. You need a fairer voting system.
I’ve taken the quote from PoliticsHome.
Updated
Here are some more details from the ComRes poll released overnight. As Claire and Alberto have already pointed out, the Tory bounce that it seems to have detected since the Paxman showdown on Thursday is the opposite of what the YouGov poll in the Sunday Times picked up.
Conservatives lead by 4 points as Miliband sees no Paxo bounce - our new poll for @itvnews / @DailyMailUK pic.twitter.com/hdzTJPbFi6
— ComRes (@ComResPolls) March 29, 2015
Cameron leads as "strong" & "good on TV", Miliband on "genuine" and "understands real world" @dailymailUK / @itvnews pic.twitter.com/bQtDCAxgLz
— ComRes (@ComResPolls) March 29, 2015
Pre & post Paxman interviews, public choose who they prefer as PM in our new @ComResPolls / @dailymailUK / @itvnews pic.twitter.com/UtUhj2xJ5c
— Tom Mludzinski (@tom_ComRes) March 29, 2015
New @ITVNews / @DailyMailUK poll: Conservative/Lib Dem coalition preferred to Labour/SNP coalition #GE2015 pic.twitter.com/pA4qBhr0zu
— ComRes (@ComResPolls) March 29, 2015
Today's Guardian seat projection - Tories 277, Labour 269
Two very different polls were released over the weekend: one by YouGov had Labour taking a four-point lead. The second by ComRes showed the opposite picture with the Tories ahead by four.
As always, it’s best to look at the trend instead of picking the poll we like best.
The underlying picture remains unchanged: Labour and the Conservatives are virtually tied in the polls, and our latest projection has the Conservatives winning 277 seats, Labour 269, the SNP 53, the Liberal Democrats 25, Ukip four and the Greens one.
Both main parties remain well short of an outright majority.
One number to keep an eye on over the next five weeks is the combined Labour-SNP share of seats. It’s currently projected at 322 seats - anything above this, and Cameron wouldn’t have the numbers to form a government if the MPs of both parties were to vote him down.
Because of this factor, Cameron needs the polls to change substantially more between now and election than Miliband does if he is to stand a chance of forming a stable government.
Updated
Jim Murphy, the Scottish Labour leader, has been on Good Morning Scotland in the first of their leaders’ interviews to launch their election campaign coverage, my colleague Libby Brooks reports.
Murphy told listeners: ‘A lot of people in Scotland are still thinking about last year’s disagreement in the referendum and the nearer we get to polling day the more people will be thinking about the choice we face this year, which is whether we want a Labour government or a Tory government.’
Asked about the devastating polls that have been consistently predicting an SNP landslide at the expense of Labour, he said: ‘I’ve been pretty clear. These are really awful opinion polls for the Scottish Labour party. If these polls are reported on election day, of course Labour will lose seats and the SNP will gain seats and they’ll be pretty pleased. But the person who will be most pleased is David Cameron because in election after election the biggest party has got to form the government. If the SNP takes seats from Labour it reduces the changes of Labour winning a majority or being the biggest party. David Cameron will end up being an accidental prime minister, re-elected by Scotland by accident. That’s the last thing that Scotland needs.’
Over the weekend Libby was at the SNP conference in Glasgow, where 3,000 delegates attended, making it the biggest conference in the party’s history. She sent this video.
Updated
Nick Clegg's Today interview - Summary and analysis
Here are the key points from Nick Clegg’s Today interview.
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Clegg refused to rule out the Lib Dems backing David Cameron’s plans for an in/out referendum on the EU before the end of 2017. This is a key issue for the Lib Dems, and some figures, like Vince Cable and Ed Davey, have suggested that having a referendum would create so much business uncertainty that it would be hard for the Lib Dems to support it. But Clegg did not make that argument and very deliberately kept open the option of voting for an in/out referendum. Labour figures (I was about to call them MPs, but they are not MPs anmore) have criticised him for this on Twitter.
Weasel words of Fib Dem Clegg on Europe referendum. Preparing to capitulate to Tories and give them another coalition @BBCr4today
— Mike Gapes (@MikeGapes) March 30, 2015
Nick Clegg on @BBCr4today equivocating on his position on an EU referendum.
— Diane Abbott (@HackneyAbbott) March 30, 2015
David Cameron has said he would insist on having a referendum if he were to remain prime minister and so a Conservative/Lib Dem post-election deal would only happen if the Lib Dems were willing to vote for an in/out referendum. Clegg won’t rule one out because he wants to keep his options open. In private, Lib Dems also argue that, because this is so important to the Tories, they could negotiate some extremely big concessions in return for backing the referendum. But whether Clegg could ever get his party to support him on this is another matter.
- Clegg said it was his “intention” to remain as Lib Dem leader for the whole of the next parliament (very few Lib Dems expect this to happen).
- He dismissed research from the Demos thinktank saying the pupil premium has failed to close the attainment gap between poorer pupils and and their wealthier classmates. He said he was not aware of the Demos report, but that official government figures showed the attainment gap closing “for the first time in many, many years”.
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He claimed that the coalition’s pupil premium and free nursery education for poorer families could have a big impact on improving social mobility if allowed to continue.
I’m absolutely convinced that, as long as no government in the future tampers with those basic policies, we will see a real shift towards fairness and greater social mobility in the years ahead.
- He said that, although he wanted to be included in the BBC’s “challengers debate”, he was not actively trying to get the BBC to let him in. He would “love” to be there, he said. But he was not pushing for a change of heart. “By the looks of it, those rules have been established now,” he said.
- He defended his decision not to take party in a live TV debate with other candidates in his Sheffield Hallam constituency. Ed Miliband was not taking part in a debate of that kind, he said, and so it was “a little bit rich” for the Labour candidate in Sheffield Hallam to criticise him over this.
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He said the Lib Dems would publish more details of their plans for higher council tax bands (what used to be the mansion tax) before the election. The higher bands would operate like council tax bands, he said, but they would be collected by central government.
Updated
Q: Do you want to be in the challengers’ debate?
Yes, says Clegg.
Q: So are you trying to get included?
No, says Clegg. The rules have been established.
Q: Is it your intention to stay as Lib Dem leader for the whole of the next parliament?
Yes, says Clegg.
And that’s it.
Updated
Q: Why won’t you have a TV debate with the other candidates in your constituency?
Clegg says he attended a hustings in the constituency last week.
Other party leaders, like Ed Miliband, are not doing this.
He says he has held more hustings than Miliband.
So, for the Labour party candidate to jump up and down and complain when his leader is not doing this, is “a bit rich”.
Q: Demos is suggesting the pupil premium is not working. The attainment gap between poor and rich pupils is getting bigger.
Clegg says he has not seen the Demos research. He says government figures suggest the opposite. The pupil premium has been a success, he says.
Statistics before Christmas showed the attainment gap was closing.
And a policy like this is not going to change things overnight, he says.
Updated
Q: You have said you would raise £6bn from higher taxes. Where would that come from?
Clegg says the full details will be in the manifesto. The party has already set out some ideas including: a higher property tax; aligning taxes on dividends with taxes on earnings for higher rate tax payers; cutting relief on capital gains tax; ending the “shares for rights” tax breaks; and ending tax breaks for marriage, or the “unmarried couples tax penalty”, as Clegg calls it.
Clegg says the higher property taxes will operate like council tax bands, but the money will go to central government. More details will be in the manifesto.
Q: You will go into the election with everything costed?
Yes, says Clegg.
He says it is odd for the Conservatives to say the rich should not be expected to pay more.
Updated
Justin Webb is interviewing Nick Clegg.
Q: The FT has got a Labour advert saying leaving the EU would be a threat to business. Do you agree?
Clegg says he agrees with that bit.
Q: So why don’t you rule out a referendum?
Because we agree with one, in certain circumstances, Clegg says.
He says the “zig-zagging” of the Conservatives has been difficult to follow. Their positition on a referendum used to be the one that Lib Dems hold now.
Q: So why don’t you propose blocking the Tory plans. Labour would do that.
Clegg says if you want no referendum, you should vote Labour. If you want one in any circumstances, you should vote Conservative. The Lib Dems want one, but only in certain circumstances.
He says he cannot predict how the Conservative party position will change.
What the Lib Dems will never do is play “footsie” with the possibility of leaving the EU, he says.
There is space in the campaign for the “reasoned, centre ground”, he says.
Q: So you are not denying you could be in a government that brings a referendum in 2017 to fruition?
Clegg does not challenge this. Webb moves on to his next question.
Updated
Nick Clegg's Today interview
I'll be on @BBCr4today now talking about start of the gen election and how @LibDems are offering a stronger economy and a fairer society.
— Nick Clegg (@nick_clegg) March 30, 2015
Good morning. I’m taking over now from Claire.
Nick Clegg will be on the Today programme at 8.10. I’ll be covering the interview in detail.
Nick Robinson: tumour surgery 'a complete success'
Nick Robinson, the BBC’s political editor, who has been off the campaign trail following surgery to remove a tumour, is on the mend, he says in a blog this morning:
The operation to remove a carcinoid tumour from my lung was a complete success. I am now beginning a course of chemotherapy to try to stop the cancer even daring to think of returning. I’m also working to restore the strength of my voice after the op.
Many thanks to all the doctors and nurses who have been, and are, looking after me – particularly at the Royal Brompton and Royal Free hospitals. Heartfelt thanks too to the many people who have been in touch with their good wishes.
Normal service will be resumed as soon as possible.
Updated
Umunna: 'no additional borrowing in Labour manifesto'
More from Chuka Umunna on the Today programme; this time on the issue of private profit in the NHS. Labour last week said it would introduce a profit cap of 5% on private providers working in the health service.
Umunna said his party was “absolutely not” suspicious of private companies in general:
Most of your listeners … don’t see the NHS as a business.
All we’ve sought to do … is to make sure you do not see a treasured national institution exploited by private providers.
Questioning then turned to remarks by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) this weekend that Labour’s plans could leave the country with a deficit of up to £30bn by 2020. Umunna did not accept the £30bn figure, he said, while declining to substitute a figure of his own:
Our aim … is to balance the books … There will be no commitments in our manifesto that involve additional borrowing.
By the end of the next parliament, we will get the current budget into balance.
He said debt will be falling, as a percentage of GDP, year on year, but when pressed for numbers, replied:
You’re asking me to tell you what will be in the budget in 2019. I can’t tell you that.
Updated
Chuka Umunna, Labour’s shadow business secretary, has just been interviewed on the Today programme.
He was asked about an ad placed by Labour in Monday’s Financial Times, which quotes various company chiefs warning of the dangers to business of an EU exit. Umunna was cagey over the issue of whether any of the companies mentioned had actually pledged to back Labour on 7 May:
If you look at FTSE100 companies … what they’re interested in doing is business, and what’s import for businesses is our continuing membership of the European Union.
He says a Labour government is “absolutely clear” that the best thing for British businesses is to be “deeply engaged” in the EU “to make sure we get the best deal from being in Europe”.
Quizzed on the comments by Labour donor Assem Allam in the Telegraph, in which Allam said Ed Miliband risked “alienating” voters with his economic policies, Umunna said:
I’ve no idea – I’ve not spoken to him [Allam]; I’ve not met him.
Updated
Talking of polls … here’s an unscientific survey for the BBC by Ipsos Mori asking people which three words or phrases spring to mind when thinking about the forthcoming campaign.
I’m intrigued by the people who said “intrigued”.
Which three words sum up how people feel about #GE2015 campaign? Ipsos MORI asked a BBC online community of voters: pic.twitter.com/wgzLuXcePz
— BBC Radio 4 Today (@BBCr4today) March 30, 2015
Morning briefing
You could be forgiven for thinking that the general election campaign was already well underway, but no: today is day 1. All the rest was just a warm-up.
Having stretched our limbs last week with our daily election live blogs (catch up on them here), this week sees us breaking into a proper jog: we’ll be bringing you live coverage from 7am till late every day until 7 May – and quite possibly beyond.
I’m Claire Phipps, getting things started today, before handing over to Andrew Sparrow later this morning. We’re on Twitter @Claire_Phipps and @AndrewSparrow, and reading your comments below the line.
The big picture
Today sees the dissolution of parliament, the start of full-on campaigning for the general election, and the end of MPs. The right to call oneself an MP, in any case. As the handy parliament primer puts it:
When parliament is dissolved the role of MP ceases to exist until the election of a new House of Commons at the general election.
Officially no one has an MP from dissolution until the result of the election is known. MPs who are hoping to be re-elected will often keep in touch with their former constituents, although they cannot do this in any official capacity. Members who are not standing for re-election are not able to honour commitments made to their constituents when they were an MP.
The government, and its ministers, however, remain ensconced until there is a new team to take over.
Here’s what to be aware of today:
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Ed Miliband will say, at the launch of Labour’s business manifesto, that the Conservatives’ promised EU referendum would prompt a distracting battle within the Tory party as clashes over whether the UK should remain in Europe combine with the jostling to replace David Cameron – who’s already announced that a potential second term in No 10 would be his last.
- Cameron, in turn, will claim that Labour’s economic policies will cost families (well, he will probably say #hardworkingfamilies) over £3,000 in higher taxes “to pay for more welfare and out of control spending”.
- Vince Cable says he would not rule out a second Conservative-Lib Dem coalition, “but I am not pushing for it”. In an interview with the Independent, the business secretary said a good result for his party would be “holding on to the vast majority of our seats”.
- Businessman Assem Allam, owner of Hull City football club, has told the Daily Telegraph that Labour – to whom he has previously donated £400,000 – needed to rethink its plans for a 50p tax rate and a mansion tax.
- Rozanne Duncan, a former Ukip councillor who was kicked out of the party after saying she had a problem with “negroes”, has told ITV that she “can’t explain the discomfort I feel” around black people and that she “wouldn’t form a friendship with” a black woman.
And a brief weekend catch-up:
- Nicola Sturgeon challenged Miliband to commit to working with the SNP in the event of a hung parliament, telling delegates at the party’s spring conference in Glasgow:
If Labour fails to make that commitment, the only conclusion people will draw is that Labour would rather have the Tories back in power than work with the SNP. And that will be the final nail in the coffin of Scottish Labour.
- Work and pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith said “we may, we may not, decide that it’s relevant” to tell voters ahead of the election how the Tories plan to cut a further £12bn from welfare spending. A leaked document suggested the DWP was considering restricting child benefit to two children only, taxing disability benefits and reducing eligibility for carers’ allowance.
- Labour MP Diane Abbott criticised a campaign mug – and the pledge that inspired it – lauding further controls on immigration:
This shameful mug is an embarrassment. But real problem is that immigration controls are one of our 5 pledges at all pic.twitter.com/4xslD22Gcm
— Diane Abbott (@HackneyAbbott) March 29, 2015
As the campaign kicks off properly, here’s the latest standings for the parties:
Diary
- David Cameron and Nick Clegg will – separately – go to Buckingham palace today to mark the formal dissolution of parliament. (Clegg goes in his capacity as Lord President of the Privy Council, not as deputy PM.)
- Clegg then sets off in his yellow campaign bus to the Midlands, while Cameron heads to south-west England for a rally with Tory supporters.
- At 10.40am Labour rolls out its big names – Ed Miliband, Ed Balls, Chuka Umunna, Rachel Reeves, Douglas Alexander and Caroline Flint – to launch its business manifesto in the City of London.
- On the Today programme, we’ll hear Chuka Umunna at 7.20am and Nick Clegg at 8.10am.
- Labour’s shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt, is at the ATL teachers’ union conference.
The big issue
As a ComRes poll for the Daily Mail and ITV News puts the Conservatives four points clear of Labour by 36 to 32, with a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times placing them precisely the other way round, brace yourselves for six weeks of day-by-day picking apart of the latest numbers.
The Guardian’s poll projection analysis – taking in all published constituency-level polls, UK-wide polls and polling conducted in the nation – is a good place to start. Here, for example, is its compilation of recent GB-wide polls. Hover over the party-coloured stripes to see the numbers.
The Daily Mail’s political editor, James Chapman, says the latest ComRes poll “suggests Labour has slipped back since last week’s bruising TV encounter between the two main party leaders and interviewer Jeremy Paxman”.
Others, such as Nottingham University politics professor Matthew Goodwin, urge more caution:
AHHHH COMRES HAS TORIES 4 POINT AHEAD. CAMERON WON THE DEBATES!!! Wait.... (lesson: stop reading into one poll)
— Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) March 29, 2015
Do have a read of this analysis by the Guardian’s data editor, Alberto Nardelli, on why Cameron’s victory in the leaders’ TV interviews did matter (a bit). Alberto will also be popping into these live blogs throughout the campaign with the latest on polling and how large your pinch of salt ought to be when reading them.
Read these
- If it’s Monday, it’s Boris Johnson in the Telegraph day. This morning he’s terribly worried about the SNP:
In the end, though, the SNP agenda is subtler and more insidious. What do they really want? It’s there in the title. They want a new nation; they want independence. And to that end they will surely spend their time in government in a constant effort to tease, bait, goad and generally wind up the English until the patience snaps.
- The Times appears to be hedging its bets for now, with today’s editorial not much impressed with either of the two contenders for No 10:
The Conservative party has a good story to tell on economic recovery and it has a seriousness of purpose in seeking to eradicate the deficit that is not matched by its opponents but it can sound, at times, as if balancing the books is Mr Cameron’s sole claim to office. What, we wonder, does he want to balance the books for? What is the future beyond sensible housekeeping?
- The Independent says Labour has sought legal advice on how to “evict” Cameron from Downing Street should Miliband secure more seats but not an outright victory on 7 May.
- In the Guardian, Paul Mason argues that the parties “are still trying to capture a political centre that does not exist”:
They’re missing the bigger picture. This election is set to be dominated by political divides that are new, and much larger. Instead of micro-demographic categories, what we’ll need to understand are dreams. These can be reduced to three geospatial identities, which I’ve labelled Scandi-Scotland, the asset-rich south-east and post-industrial Britain.
- And if the dissolution of parliament has you pining for the days of coalition already, Helen Lewis offers this A-Z of its highs and lows, from arguments to zero-hours contracts.
The day in a tweet
All those MP Twitter handles are safe … until 8 May, at least:
@glittercrisis before you spend any more time on this, Electoral Commission has decreed we can still use MP in Twitter names this time
— Kerry McCarthy (@KerryMP) March 29, 2015
If today were a reality TV show, it would be…
Big Brother. A group of people you vaguely recognise battle it out for the top prize, only to discover that hardly anybody was really watching.
The key story you’re missing when you’re election-obsessed
The personal details of world leaders at the last G20 summit – including David Cameron – were accidentally disclosed by the Australian immigration department, which did not consider it necessary to inform those world leaders of the privacy breach. The Guardian revealed that an employee of the agency inadvertently sent the passport numbers, visa details and other personal identifiers of all world leaders attending the summit – including Barack Obama, Vladimir Putin and Angela Merkel –to the organisers of a football tournament.
Updated
Horrible non-answering by George Osborne on Channel 4. There is definitely a case for not allowing these people to come on live and then spout their prepared non-answers ad nauseam. Do the interview before and edit it to remove gratuitous nonsense and slogans.