We have an interview with Ed Miliband in tomorrow’s Guardian and available to read online here. Speaking ahead of the closest election in a generation, the Labour leader attacks David Cameron for being reduced to arguing that “the key question facing the country is a battle of resources between London and Scotland”.
Evening summary
This time next week we’ll know what the results of the general election are, and, if today’s to-ing and fro-ing is anything to go by, it’s not going to be smooth sailing. After last night’s ask the leaders edition of BBC Question Time, party leaders battled it out to see who dismiss the other quicker while simultaneously trying to present themselves as the only viable option for Britain. Here’s everything that happened today.
The big picture
Ed Miliband spoke at a rally in Glasgow tonight, where he urged voters not to “gamble” on the SNP and insisted his opposition to doing a post-election deal with Nicola Sturgeon’s party is a matter of principle. He said Labour could not “do a deal with a party that wants to break up the UK when we want to build it up”. He also refused to accept Nicola Sturgeon’s claim that Labour’s failure to work with the SNP would result in David Cameron winning a second term as prime minister, and said the only thing the SNP wants is another independence referendum.
If we set England against Scotland, if we set any part of our country against another, it does not help working people, it harms working people.
It undermines the ability to share resources. It drives down wages and conditions in the race to the bottom.
Nationalism doesn’t understand we are stronger, not weaker, when we look after each other across the whole of our country.
Nationalism never built a school. It never lifted people out of poverty. It never created a welfare state that healed the sick and protected our most vulnerable. Nationalism cannot create the jobs we need.
It was an impassioned and rising speech from Miliband in a region where Labour is on course to be completely wiped out. Whether it will be enough to win back some support from the nationalists is unclear – only time will tell. Either way, Scotland is looking like the key battleground in this final week of election campaigning.
What happened today
- Ed Miliband announced Labour would effectively cancel the bedroom tax on its first day in office. It would do that by making funds available to councils to allow them to compensate people for the cost of the bedroom tax in full.
- David Cameron accidentally said the election would be a “career-defining” one instead of a country-defining one during a speech at Asda headquarters in Leeds. He also failed to rule out a cut in child benefits during the course of the next parliament.
- Nigel Farage said he would “absolutely not” help Labour form a government, and also ruled out a formal coalition with the Tories and the Lib Dems, saying he would rather “drive the agenda” rather than accept a ministerial car.
- Latest polling by Lord Ashcroft in marginal constituencies revealed that Tory voters might just save Jim Murphy - who is now only 3 points behind the SNP in East Renfrewshire - and that the Conservatives have completely reversed Labour’s previous four-point lead in Croydon Central.
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The Green Party launched its LGBTIQ Manifesto, which contained pledges to: review the discriminatory blood ban, introduce LGBTIQ-inclusive sex education, protect LGBTIQ asylum seekers, improve services for trans people, and promote LGBTIQ rights abroad.
Quote of the day
“This is a real career-defining... country-defining election that we face now in less than a week’s time” - David Cameron in Leeds.
Laugh of the day
Nick Clegg meets Paddy Pantsdown #ge2015 https://t.co/lywxSFKPS7
— Sebastian Payne (@SebastianEPayne) May 1, 2015
Hero of the day
Whoever made this tribute to Ed Miliband and #Milifandom.
Villain of the day
Jack Sen, UKIP’s parliamentary candidate for West Lancashire, who was suspended after claiming that other governments have ignored “the ethnic cleansing” of people of European descent in South Africa.
That’s it from me today. Join me again tomorrow morning for the first day of the final weekend of the general election campaign, as I bring you all the news, reaction, fall-out, pictures and sometimes even, jokes from the trail. I think it’s safe to say it’s not going to be a relaxing weekend for politicians. Or for us, who continue to keep a watchful eye on them.
Updated
Our BritainThinks focus group’s verdict on the campaign
What do the real voters think? We have 60 in five key seats giving their view throughout the campaign as part of our polling project with BritainThinks. They each have an app and are telling us what they think of stories as they crop up.
Below are some of their thoughts, from party political tattoos to potential back room coalition deals:
Occupy Democracy protesters have gathered in London’s Parliament Square in a bid to concentrate the minds of voters ahead of polling day, and plan to remain there if there is a hung parliament.
The Festival of Democracy began this afternoon, hosting a series of workshops, discussions, and will even include the occupying of statues on Parliament Square.
Organiser George Barda said the protesters hope to stay in the heart of Westminster beyond election day, as there may be some: “political horse trading” if there is a minority government, and said that they hope to show that people of various interests need to be represented in politics.
Mr Barda added:
We have come out in to Parliament Square which is a symbolic and iconic location for democracy in the world, supposedly, [and] seems like a sensible thing to do when there is so much spin being told to people.
Beautiful conversations about democracy taking place now on parliament square. This is what democracy looks like! pic.twitter.com/BQADWy6tkW
— Occupy Democracy (@OccupyDemocracy) May 1, 2015
Quotes from PA.
Updated
The former Labour first minister Jack McConnell has said that Miliband will struggle to form a government if Labour is not the biggest party. Lord McConnell told BBC Newsnight that if David Cameron wins more seats, even without a majority, “the public perception will be that he has won” and “anyone who tries to get around that, to get a deal to get a different PM, will be in trouble.”
Even if Cameron was to lose a few seats, if he still has a few seats more than Labour then public perception will be that he has won. Therefore the SNP argument that everybody else could gang up on him will not work.
If we get to Friday morning and the sitting prime minister who is in Number 10 has won more seats than anyone else he will automatically get the first go and the public will expect him to do that.
Updated
Nicola Sturgeon has said the SNP would vote down a Labour budget if it imposed cuts.
Sturgeon tells @BBCScotlandNews tonight SNP would in theory vote down a Labour budget but it wdn't sink the govt
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) May 1, 2015
Sturgeon-If we then vote against the budget because it is looking to impose cuts we don't agree with then he doesn't get the budget thro
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) May 1, 2015
Updated
The SNP has issued a response to Miliband’s speech. The party’s deputy leader Stewart Hosie emphasised the SNP’s platform to promote progressive policies.
Mr Miliband sacrificed any claim to progressive politics on Thursday night, when he indicated that he would prefer to let the Tories back in to continue their cuts and damage to society for five more years, rather than work with the SNP to keep them out. That represents a further abandonment of principle by Labour.
The SNP have a platform to promote progressive policies for the benefit of Scotland and the whole UK at this election - including an end to the cuts, new investment in our NHS, and a minimum wage of £8.70 by 2020. It is clear that electing a big group of SNP MPs next Thursday is the way to lock the Tories out of Downing Street, and achieve the decisive position needed to deliver these progressive policies.
More data on the BBC Question Time debate
The most searched leaders on Google during the debate:
David Cameron: 27.7%
Ed Miliband: 53.7%
Nick Clegg: 18.6%
Here are the top questions for each:
Cameron:
- What does David Cameron say about austerity?
- What happened to David Cameron’s son?
- How much is David Cameron worth?
- What football team does David Cameron support?
- How old is David Cameron?
Miliband:
- What does Ed Miliband say about the NHS?
- How old is Ed Miliband?
- Will Ed Miliband do a deal with the SNP?
- How much does Ed Miliband get paid?
- Will Ed Miliband ban zero hour contracts?
Clegg:
- How old is Nick Clegg?
- How tall is Nick Clegg?
- Where did Nick Clegg go to school?
- What constituency is Nick Clegg?
- Will Nick Clegg lose his seat in the election?
Updated
Ed Miliband speech in Glasgow - snap verdict
Miliband gave a powerful and rising speech in Glasgow. He urged Scottish voters to remember their grandfathers and parents who worked hard and fought for Labour in the past. Citing “great” Labour leaders throughout history, Miliband seemed confident and managed to get through his speech without any notes and without stumbling once. Angry nationalist protests outside the venue might even have worked to his benefit, as he warned of the dangers of separatism and billed his party as the party of social justice across the whole of the UK. Here are the key points from his speech:
- Miliband told voters not to “gamble” on the SNP and insisted his opposition to doing a post-election deal with Nicola Sturgeon’s party is a matter of principle. He said his party could not “do a deal with a party that wants to break up the UK when we want to build it up”.
I know the people of Scotland want a more just society. And with food banks, payday lenders and the neglect of the NHS, Scottish people feel there must be no delay.
That’s why I have a clear message for the people of Scotland today: don’t gamble with the SNP when you can guarantee change with Labour.
I am also clear there will be no deal, no pact, no coalition, no tie-in with the SNP.
I don’t say that for tactical reasons - I’m advocating this for principled reasons.
We cannot do a deal with a party that wants to break up the UK when we want to build it up.
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Miliband refused to accept Nicola Sturgeon’s claim that Labour’s failure to work with the SNP would result in David Cameron winning a second term as prime minister. He said it was the SNP winning seats from Labour that would increase the Tories’ chances of being the largest party.
I will never put the Tories into government. I have spent my entire political career fighting them.
But the tragedy is that the SNP may very well might let the Tories in. That’s what could happen if the Tories are the largest party.
- Miliband said the only thing the SNP wants is a second independence referendum. “That’s their priority. That’s their promise. But it is not ours. Our priority is social justice,” he said.
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Miliband said Labour believes in the principles of sharing and solidarity that underpin the partnerships of four nations that is the modern UK. He added:
If we set England against Scotland, if we set any part of our country against another, it does not help working people, it harms working people.
It undermines the ability to share resources. It drives down wages and conditions in the race to the bottom.
Nationalism doesn’t understand we are stronger, not weaker, when we look after each other across the whole of our country.
Nationalism never built a school. It never lifted people out of poverty. It never created a welfare state that healed the sick and protected our most vulnerable. Nationalism cannot create the jobs we need.
- Miliband also spoke about Labour’s plans for a future government, including devolving more powers to the Scottish parliament, banning zero-hours contracts, giving regulators the power to cut energy prices, introducing a 50p tax rate, taxing bankers’ bonuses, abolishing non-doms and the bedroom tax.
Under my government, those with the broadest shoulders will bear the greatest burden. And in the country I lead, there’ll be no hiding place for the hedge funds, the tax havens who shield the tax avoiders, the Tory party donors who think tax avoiders is something everybody does.
That is what the pooling and sharing and resources means. That is what solidarity and social justice is all about.
Updated
Miliband says he wants to devolve more powers to Scottish parliament, to make it one of the most powerful and devolved in the world. He talks about zero-hours contracts and big energy companies. “I’m going to do the right thing for working people, we’re going to give the regulator the power to cut prices this winter.”
He adds Labour will introduce 50p tax rate. “Under my government, those with the broadest shoulders will bear the greatest burden. And in the country I lead, there’ll be no hiding place for the hedge funds, the tax havens who shield the tax avoiders, the Tory party donors who think tax avoiders is something everybody does. We will abolish non-dom status.”
He says Labour will tax the bankers’ bonuses and use those resources to put young people back to work. “That is what the pooling and sharing and resources means. That is what solidarity and social justice is all about.”
Miliband says he wants to go further. “We want to abolish the bedroom tax. The indefensible and cruel tax, that tells you everything you need to know about a Tory government. We will legislate straight away to abolish the bedroom tax.”
Updated
There’s only one thing the SNP want and thats independence, Miliband. “If you want social justice, not separatism, vote for a Labour government.”
More from Miliband:
If we set England against Scotland, it does not help working people, it harms working people. It undermines the ability to share resources. Nationalism doesn’t understand we are stronger, not weaker when we look after each other across the whole of the country. Nationalism never built schools or lifted people out of poverty. It cannot create the jobs we need.
Miliband tells voters not to “gamble with the SNP” and says there will be “no deal or coalition” with them. He says this stance is for “principled reasons not tactical reasons.”
Miliband says Cameron has not ruled out cuts in child benefit, he’s not even pretending like last time. “We have 6 days to save your child benefit. I’ll protect tax credits. I’ll protect child benefit. Vote Labour to put your country first.”
Ed Miliband says he’s got a simple message. “People have the opportunity to be part of change. This is one of the most important elections our country has ever seen. The differences couldn’t be clearer between my vision and David Cameron’s. It’s about a different idea about how a country succeeds.” He says wealth does not trickle down, Cameron’s vision fails the people of Scotland and Britain. “We know the damage that five years of a Tory government has done”.
Updated
More from Severin in Glasgow, where Jim Murphy just accused Alex Salmond of “shameless” lying and set out his vision for a future Scotland.
.@Jim4Scotland accuses @AlexSalmond of "shameless" lie by claiming in #Gordon election leaflet he led the way on free buses & personal care
— Severin Carrell (@severincarrell) May 1, 2015
.@Jim4Scotland sets out Labour's last #GE2015 attack line: Scottish kids reading, schools, colleges suffered due to @theSNP #indyref quest
— Severin Carrell (@severincarrell) May 1, 2015
.@Ed_Miliband walks in to #Tollcross loud shouts, cheers & applause; seems somewhat diffident #GE2015 pic.twitter.com/9kLoSRcHCj
— Severin Carrell (@severincarrell) May 1, 2015
Labour leader speech in Glasgow
Ed Miliband and Jim Murphy are speaking in Glasgow now. We have a live feed of the event, so you can watch it from the comfort of your own homes. I’ll post a summary of Miliband’s speech afterwards.
Updated
Ed Balls has responded to David Cameron’s failure to rule out a cut in child benefit, emphasising Labour’s claim that child benefit and tax credits “are now on the ballot paper next week”.
After days of weasel words and prevarication David Cameron is still failing to rule out cutting child benefit and tax credits again.
All he has said again is he won’t abolish child benefit, but he won’t deny he plans to cut it or take it away from millions of families. Everyone knows it’s impossible for the Tories to achieve their £12 billion of cuts to social security without hitting family budgets hard.
Child benefit and tax credits are now on the ballot paper next week. While Labour will protect them, the whole country now knows the Tories will cut them again.
While hundreds of Nicola Sturgeons spring up in London as she tours Scotland by helicopter, David Cameron goes to Asda, and Jim Murphy shows his strength in Paisley – here’s our election photo highlights of the day:
Updated
Nigel Farage has accused Ed Miliband of turning his back on the British public by saying the country cannot have a referendum on European Union membership. Farage said this is why Ukip is gaining support “in big Labour areas”, such as the Midlands and the North. He said neither the Conservative Party, nor any other political party, are “natural bedfellows” for Ukip.
Our Scotland correspondent Severin Carrell is in Glasgow, where Ed Miliband and Jim Murphy are due at a rally soon. He reports that there are some angry nationalist crowds present at the venue.
.@NicolaSturgeon effort to make common cause with @UKLabour dissed by #RedToriesOut crew barracking @Ed_Miliband gig pic.twitter.com/8zQ0LwDujp
— Severin Carrell (@severincarrell) May 1, 2015
"Labour scum" and "red Tories out" greets Labour crowd at #Tollcross swim centre; no @theSNP deal wanted here, then pic.twitter.com/wnvHGKJROd
— Severin Carrell (@severincarrell) May 1, 2015
Sean Clerkin is escorted out of #Tolcross swim centre by police, shouting #RedTories at @scottishlabour crowd pic.twitter.com/Z3CqSbVUpn
— Severin Carrell (@severincarrell) May 1, 2015
Clegg has spoken about trouser-gate. All we need now is an appearance from Paddy Pantsdown.
Some people may not have been heeding my warnings about the need to tighten our belts. pic.twitter.com/rjcEqg9dzG
— Nick Clegg (@nick_clegg) May 1, 2015
More than 100 judges, peers, lawyers and doctors write open letter to The Guardian condemning legal aid cuts and calling on the new government to restore justice. The signatories – who include former appeal court judges, a chief inspector of prisons and a reviewer of terrorism legislation – condemn cuts made by the coalition government for depriving “hundreds of thousands of people” of access to justice.
Here’s a video of a boy literally dropping his trousers as Nick Clegg walks past. This general election campaign is like a roller coaster.
Labour’s contact with voters remains at a higher level than that of the Conservatives’.
Once again LAB voter contact running at higher level than CON in every seat - pattern we've seen throughout campaign pic.twitter.com/2JS13SyEcB
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2015
There’s more to come from the Russell Brand Ed Miliband interview. Here’s the trailer for the video, which is due to be published on Monday.
There’s some information about the youth response to the first instalment of the interview here.
Updated
Cameron had revealed his true colours through a massive Freudian slip. Dave had just confirmed out loud the very reason why so many voters find him hard to trust. He isn’t in the job primarily to make the country better and heal north-south divided: he is what everyone most fears and dislikes. A career politician. A man, who apart from a few year’s working as a PR man for a TV station, has known no life outside the Westminster bubble. A man who quite possibly understands the concerns of ordinary people even less than those other career politicians, Ed and Nick.
Updated
In our Politics Weekly Extra podcast, Anne Perkins speaks to Ron Johnston, co-author of Money and Electoral Politics, and discusses campaign finance and how it has affected the 2015 general election.
Have a listen:
The Lib Dems have responded to Labour’s plans to scrap the bedroom tax. Lib Dem campaign spokesperson Lord Scriven blamed Labour for the social housing crisis and said Miliband needs to be honest with voters.
Under Ed Miliband’s watch social housing fell by 421,000 - the lowest level since the 1960s - and it was a Labour government that introduced the so-called ‘Bedroom Tax’ in the private sector.
Only the Liberal Democrats have the solutions for sensible reform to the Spare Room Subsidy, so that more families have access to suitable properties, while ensuring no-one is forced out of their home unfairly.
Yesterday Ed Miliband refused to say that Labour overspent in government. Today he refuses to accept responsibility for the social housing crisis he left.
It is time he was honest with voters. Only the Liberal Democrats will build a stronger economy and a fairer society, creating opportunity for all.
Survation poll: Labour 1pt ahead
The latest Survation poll puts Labour one point ahead of the Conservatives.
Latest Survation poll (post #bbcqt): LAB - 34% (+4) CON - 33% (-) UKIP - 16% (-2) LDEM - 9% (-) GRN - 3% (-1)
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 1, 2015
Updated
Remember Elena Prokopiou, the student who asked Miliband a somewhat aggressive question about spending during last night’s leaders Question Time? It appears she’s a member of the University of Leeds Conservative Party. Her Twitter bio reads: “Cats, Conservatives & Chelsea FC”. Should party members and activists be filtered from audiences at such events? I’m not sure. I’ll leave that to you to decide.
Fantastic to see one of our members @elena_prokopiou grill @EdMiliband_MP on his denial of over spending.. How can we trust him?
— LUU Conservatives (@LeedsTories) April 30, 2015
Updated
How old do UK party political leaders look?
Now here’s something creative sent to us via guardian witness, based on the photos of the leaders – who are all in their 40s – from today’s Guardian front page.
Dave and Nick looking older according to Microsoft age guessing app
Try for yourself.
http:\\http://how-old.net/
According to Microsoft’s new facial analysis tool How Old Do I Look, it seems as though the last five years may have taken it’s toll on the coalition partners: with David Cameron to appear looking 53 years-old and Nick Clegg 59 years-old, on the age-guessing app. While the state-of-the-art cloud-based algorithm estimates Ed Miliband looking like he’s 31 years-old.
The polls have been in deadlock since the middle of March with Labour and the Conservatives both hovering around 33.5%.
But that is no longer the case – the Tories are now ahead.
While figures this week have ranged from a Conservative six-point lead to a Labour three-point advantage, it is not the size of a lead that is so important, but the relative vote share of the two parties within individual polls.
Here the trend is both clear and consistent across the polls: support for the Tories during the campaign has ranged on average from 32.5 to 35.5% compared with Labour’s 32 to 34.5% – and the Conservatives are now polling closer to the top of their range.
Over the past two weeks, David Cameron’s party has opened up a two-point lead in the Guardian’s average of polls. The Tories ended the week on around 34.5%, two points ahead of Labour.
However, while these percentages would probably make the Conservatives the largest party due to the losses Labour is expected to make in Scotland, this wouldn’t automatically mean that Cameron stays in Downing Street.
As things stand, the arithmetic is to the advantage of Miliband.
This is because the sum of the “anti-Tory” bloc – those parties that have said they would vote a Tory government down – currently adds up to 329 seats: a majority. While tallying up all the possible sources of support for a Cameron-led government yields 315 votes.
In order to have the numbers he needs to stay in government, the PM needs his party to win about 290 seats, and for Labour to drop to 260. The differences from here to there may seem small, and if the Tories’ current two-point lead turns into four or five points in the next five days, Cameron may well find he has done enough to cling on.
However, under the bonnet of the two blocs, the mechanics that could propel one to Number 10 are more complicated for Cameron than they are for Miliband.
Updated
John Cleese, of Monty Python fame, has come out in support of the Lib Dems in East Dunbartonshire. This is a day after Hugh Grant urged voters to back Danny Alexander in Inverness. Might this swing it for the Lib Dems in Scotland? (I doubt it).
John Cleese has a message for people in East Dunbartonshire ;-) https://t.co/MbfTGGnv9l http://t.co/7z1A7Y0Gee @Libdems #GE2015 #libdems
— Jo Swinson (@joswinson) May 1, 2015
Updated
There’s an interview with Ed Miliband in this week’s Evening Standard Magazine. I’ve wittled down the key points for you:
-
Miliband says the housing crisis is the single biggest issue facing Londoners and fixing it will be one of his top priorities as prime minister.
Our aim is to build 200,000 homes a year by 2020 and help local authorities give priority to first-time buyers.
We’ll help renters by introducing new three-year tenancies which will limit rent rises, and we’ll ban letting agencies from charging tenants letting fees. We have to do something about foreign investors who keep properties empty just to watch the value increase. Councils will be able to charge double the council tax if flats are left vacant for more than a year, and off-plan sales will have to be offered in Britain first, not overseas.
- Miliband says he will have a Cycle Safety Assessment for all new road schemes in London as well as restoring national targets to cut deaths and serious injuries. “We will introduce tough new rules for HGVs, which have been involved in three deaths already this year,” he says.
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Miliband says he will make it easier to see a GP, so people aren’t forced to go to A&E.
Currently one in four people wait a week or more to see a GP. We will guarantee GP appointments within 48 hours, or on the same day if you need it. Our Time to Care Fund will create 8,000 more GPs, who will help deliver this guarantee.
Another key thing is to ensure that older people can get the care they need at home – many vital care services have been stripped back over the last 5 years.
Our plans to improve GP access will help ease the pressure on hospital wards. So will our guarantee of a maximum one-week wait for cancer tests, which will include more testing in GP surgeries and community clinics.
-
Miliband says he would have more police on the beat to battle gangs.
Under David Cameron there are 4,000 fewer uniformed officers on London’s streets, whereas I’ve committed a Labour Government to protecting 10,000 police jobs across the UK. It’s a scandal that the Metropolitan Police Force is still so unrepresentative of London’s diversity. We will place a requirement on all police forces to actively recruit more black and ethnic minority officers.
- Miliband says he will deliver a national framework so local authorities can encourage cleaner vehicles and will support proposals for the Ultra Low Emission Zone to be opened up to the whole of London.
- He says will set targets to ensure more women are represented at boardroom level and set up a review into the ethnic diversity in top jobs. “And we will take action to make our police, judiciary and civil servants more representative of London’s diversity.”
The Green Party has launched its LGBTIQ Manifesto. The manifesto contains pledges to:
- Review the discriminatory blood ban
- Introduce LGBTIQ-inclusive sex education
- Protect LGBTIQ asylum seekers
- Improve services for trans people
-
Promote LGBTIQ rights abroad
Natalie Bennett launched the manifesto in Soho earlier today alongside LGBT campaigner Peter Tatchell. She said:
Homophobia, transphobia and biphobia are still all too common in our society. Too many people still fear persecution – at home, in the workplace and on the street.
In Parliament the Greens’ Caroline Lucas has been a tireless advocate for equal rights. She led calls for LGBTIQ-inclusive sex education, and fought against loopholes that meant that same-sex spouses did not receive equal pension rights.
And our promise to the LGBTIQ community is that a strong group of MPs will always work with you, and fight for your rights. We know that the struggle continues – and we’ll do everything within our power to work with you towards ending discrimination.
Updated
Ashcroft poll: Jim Murphy narrows gap on SNP
Ashcroft’s latest polls come as mixed news for the parties, as he writes in his analysis (below). What’s most interesting is that Tory voters might just save Jim Murphy, who is now 3 points behind the SNP.
Perhaps the most striking of these is in Croydon Central, where in a poll completed yesterday I found a four-point Conservative lead over Labour. This compares to a four-point Labour lead in March, and a six-point Labour lead last October. The UKIP share in the seat has nearly halved, from 19 per cent to 10 per cent, since the October poll.
There is also better news for Esther McVey in Wirral West, where Labour’s lead is down from five to three points since last month. This small narrowing of the gap comes as both main parties have increased their vote share, again at the expense of UKIP.
I found Labour two points ahead of the Tories in Norwich North, only a very slight change from the one-point Labour lead recorded in the seat in February. In Pudsey, where two previous polls have been tied, neither party has broken the deadlock – the one-point Tory lead leaves the seat still too close to call.
In this round I also polled three new seats at what must be the bottom end of Labour’s target list to see if any surprises could be in store. I found the Conservatives two points ahead in Margot James’s Stourbridge seat, and a comfortable 12-point Tory lead in Battersea. But Labour were leading by two points in Peterborough, where Stewart Jackson is defending a majority of 4,861.
I looked again at North Cornwall, where I twice found ties last year, followed by a two-point lead for the incumbent Lib Dems last month. The margin remains the same this time, leaving the race very close indeed.
In East Renfrewshire, Jim Murphy has narrowed the gap from nine points to three since my previous poll earlier this month. This seems largely down to Conservative voters – the Tory share is down five points, and Labour’s up five, since my last survey, and remaining Conservatives are less likely to rule out moving to Labour than in most seats. Nearly a quarter of those who voted Conservative in the constituency in 2010 now say they plan to vote for Jim Murphy.
Unfortunately for the Tories, Labour voters seem unwilling to return the favour in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, where the SNP have extended their lead from two points to eleven. Only 7 per cent of 2010 Labour voters have switched to the Tories, and 82 per cent of current Labour supporters rule out doing so.
Taken together, the results show that there can be late movement on the battleground as the election approaches and voters’ minds are concentrated, and there is still room for more in the final week. That is why even these polls remain snapshots, not predictions.
Updated
Gavin Barwell is turning things round in Croydon Central: pic.twitter.com/3uuCjIrEPX
— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 1, 2015
And Esther McVey narrows the gap in Wirral West: pic.twitter.com/8OgOk6ZeK4
— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 1, 2015
Tories edge ahead (just) in Pudsey - but too close to call: pic.twitter.com/sPbomysSPu
— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 1, 2015
And Chloe Smith remains just behind in Norwich North: pic.twitter.com/zbPKSsQKXW
— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 1, 2015
Margot James has the edge in Stourbridge: pic.twitter.com/lKDdy9gWtN
— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 1, 2015
But the Labour lead by 2 in Peterborough: pic.twitter.com/J5adeQSZrX
— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 1, 2015
Jane Ellison looks comfortable in Battersea: pic.twitter.com/fbWOeB8kX6
— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 1, 2015
More Tory voters move behind Jim Murphy in East Renfrewshire: pic.twitter.com/PlNWnyc3Wh
— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 1, 2015
SNP extend their lead in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale: pic.twitter.com/PAfkTPgM4w
— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 1, 2015
Lib Dems hold on to their slim lead in North Cornwall: pic.twitter.com/KhKUxJbpwl
— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 1, 2015
Updated
Lord Ashcroft has released the results of his final round of polling in marginal constituencies. Labour look set to gain Norwich North, Peterborough, and Wirral West.
Voting intention in my final round of marginals polling. With a week still to go, they’re snapshots not predictions: pic.twitter.com/vrMFNGoA56
— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 1, 2015
We have a video of David Cameron refusing to rule out cuts in child benefit.
Voters in marginals seats are complaining that they are receiving unwanted phone calls made on behalf of the US election guru hired by the Conservatives, and told there is no way of opting out, Buzzfeed’s Siraj Datoo reports.
Messina Quantitive Research (MQR), the company of former Barack Obama aide Jim Messina that is calling voters in marginal constituencies, can do as much polling as it wants without the costs going towards the political parties’ spending limits, according to the Electoral Commission – unless the party has specifically discussed or ordered the poll. This is regardless of whether or not the results are shared privately with a party.
One voter claims he was told that he would receive further calls until he answered all their questions.
Fed up of PPI calls? Imagine this.
Here’s something for the music fans out there – Noel Gallagher has said he won’t be voting for Ed Miliband because “he’s a fucking communist”. In an appearance on Channel 4’s Alan Carr Chatty Man tonight, the former oasis man says he will not be taking part in the election because none of the parties appeal to him.
I’m not sure I can get behind any of them at the minute.
I dunno. The fact that Cameron didn’t turn up for the debate is a disgrace. I think that Miliband, if he gets in, is just going to fail us.
Carr replies: “Give him a bloody chance. Look at his little face, how can you say that?” To which Gallagher says:
Because he is a fucking communist.
The musician continues by dismissing Nicola Sturgeon as well:
The other unpleasant little woman from over the border. Cheap shoes... and then there’s the Greens - whatever. And the other mob [presumably Ukip]...
Carr then asks Gallagher if he has fallen out of love with Tony Blair, after visiting the then-Prime Minister at Downing Street with Creation Records boss Alan McGee in the late ‘90s.
Not really. Happy days. Happy days for us all. The ‘90s were great and that first period of New Labour, as they called it, was great.
They kind of lucked out a bit because when they got in the internet exploded, so the economy exploded.
When politicians get in, nothing really changes. If no one voted, and I’m not saying that no one should vote, but if nobody voted and you wake up the next day and no one gets voted in, we’re still going to go to work in the morning.
Life’s not going to end. But I’m not going to vote this time because I missed my postal vote and I’m going to America in the morning. I would have voted for the most ludicrous thing – the monster raving loony party or something.
Hello, I’m taking over from Andrew now. Stick with me for the rest of the afternoon and evening while I scout all the political headlines so you don’t have to. I’m on Twitter @nadiakhomami and I’ll be reading your comments below the line as well, so do let me know if there’s anything you think I should be covering.
Updated
Catherine Shuttleworth, the businesswoman who strongly criticised Ed Miliband on Question Time last night, has called me back. She rejects the suggestion that she is a Conservative supporter who was admitted as a member of the audience on false pretences as an “undecided” voter (see 11.25am), or that she was some form of Tory plant (social media, passim).
She said that she has never been a member of any political party and that, although she did sign the pro-Conservative letter from small business owners, that was because she agreed with the sentiments in it, not because she agreed with the party on everything. She did set up a business with Andrew Jones, who is now a Conservative MP, but she said that was because they had worked together 15 years ago and that he was not involved in politics when she set the business up. She said that she did give George Osborne a thumbs up in the spin room after the debate, but that she had never met him before in her life and that she only responded like that because he congratulated her on her question and called her “a fiesty woman”. She was particularly dismissive of the suggestion that she was put up to confronting Miliband by the Tories.
I’m a strong-minded Yorkshire woman. No one tells me what to do.
She applied because she was watching Question Time last week and they said it was coming to Leeds and invited people to apply. She said she lives in the Leeds North West constituency (where the Lib Dem Greg Mulholland is defending her seat) and that she was someone whose voting record was “mixed”. When she applied she told the BBC, correctly, that she was undecided about who she would support, she told me, and even now she is still undecided, she said. Although the Telegraph said she was leaning towards the Conservatives, she said that was not necessarily correct.
The one person who changed my mind a bit was Nick Clegg. I thought he came across quite well.
That’s all from me for Today. I’m handing over to Nadia Khomami, who is taking over for the rest of the day.
Sturgeon has improved her image most during campaign, Farage the least, poll shows
Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader, has done most to improve her image during the election campaign, according to some new polling figures from Ipsos MORI. Those who view her more favourably (38%) outnumber those who view her less favourably (26%) by 12 points.
On the same basis, Ed Miliband has beaten David Cameron. Miliband’s net rating is +4, while Cameron’s is -8.
But the real loser is Nigel Farage. His net score is -18, meaning that far more people view him unfavourably than favourably.
Here is a Guardian video with highlights from last night’s Question Time Election Leaders Special.
Miliband mocks Cameron over 'career-defining' election slip
Ed Miliband has come up with rather a good line on David Cameron’s comment about this being a “career-defining election”.
Of Cameron's 'career defining' slip, Miliband says "He's finally found something he is passionate about, his own career"
— Sam Lister (@sam_lister_) May 1, 2015
Guardian backs Labour
The Guardian is backing Labour. Here is our endorsement editorial. And here is an extract.
Mr Miliband has grown in this campaign. He may not have stardust or TV-ready charisma, but those are qualities that can be overvalued. He has resilience and, above all, a strong sense of what is just. Mr Miliband understood early one of the central questions of the age: inequality. While most Tories shrug at that yawning gap between rich and poor, Labour will at least strive to slow and even reverse the three-decade march towards an obscenely unequal society. It is Labour that speaks with more urgency than its rivals on social justice, standing up to predatory capitalism, on investment for growth, on reforming and strengthening the public realm, Britain’s place in Europe and international development – and which has a record in government that it can be more proud of than it sometimes lets on.
In each area, Labour could go further and be bolder. But the contrast between them and the Conservatives is sharp. While Labour would repeal the bedroom tax, the Tories are set on those £12bn of cuts to social security, cuts that will have a concrete and painful impact on real lives. Even if they don’t affect you, they will affect your disabled neighbour, reliant on a vital service that suddenly gets slashed, or the woman down the street, already working an exhausting double shift and still not able to feed her children without the help of benefits that are about to be squeezed yet further. For those people, and for many others, a Labour government can make a very big difference.
This newspaper has never been a cheerleader for the Labour party. We are not now. But our view is clear. Labour provides the best hope for starting to tackle the turbulent issues facing us. On 7 May, as this country makes a profound decision about its future, we hope Britain turns to Labour.
The leader also says that it would be good to have some Lib Dems and Greens in the Commons and that, where the real choice is between Lib Dems or Conservatives, we would support the Lib Dems.
Nicola Sturgeon says the SNP is in favour of PR for Westminster. They have it in Edinburgh, she says, and the SNP would vote for PR for Westminster elections too.
A well-organised faction is already making plans to impose its demands on the prime minister on the day after the election.
No, it’s not the SNP. It’s the executive of the Conservative backbench 1922 committee. According to Isabel Hardman at Coffee House, it has scheduled a meeting for a week today, at 4pm.
The powerful executive of the 1922 Committee will meet that afternoon in order to prepare their demands for the Prime Minister and discuss any initial outlines of a coalition agreement between the Tories and the Lib Dems that have already been passed on to them. They will be preparing for a meeting of the full party on Monday, where they will set out their demands in full.
Sturgeon says she does not claim to speak for the whole of the Scottish nation.
Q: Would you be willing to bring down a minority Labour government?
Sturgeon says she is not going to Westminster to bring down governments. But, with the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, there would be scope for changing Labour policies.
Nicola Sturgeon on Election Call
Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader, on Radio 4’s Election Call now.
She says it was “absurd” for Ed Miliband to say last night he would not work with the SNP.
Gove says Labour dependent on SNP would lead to 'paralysed government'
A group of Tory activists wearing SNP T-shirts and sporting Nicola Sturgeon face-masks appeared in Victoria Tower Gardens, in the shadow of the Palace of Westminster, to highlight the “fearsome 50” SNP MPs who could hold the balance of power.
Michael Gove, the Scottish-born Conservative chief whip who accompanied what the Tories call the “shoals of Sturgeons”, said that Labour could be held to ransom by the SNP. Gove declined to photographed next to the “shoals”. But he did take questions from the media. Here are the highlights
Q: Why are you focusing on the SNP and not on Ed Miliband’s claim in the Question Time debate that Labour did not spend too much money in government?
Gove: Oh no. I have. I have been up since 6am this morning doing a series of interviews. One of the points that I made is that people would have found the bare-faced audacity of that comment unbelievable. The audience certainly did. They couldn’t believe he would be willing to defend the tax and spending record of the last Labour government.
If Ed Miliband is in Downing Street the only way he can make it is on the back of SNP votes. That means we are going to have a lethal cocktail of more taxation, more spending and more borrowing. Ed Miliband, far to the left as he already is, will be pushed further to the left by the fearsome 50 SNP MPs who are pledged vote by vote and day by day to hold him to ransom.
Q: Would an SNP MP elected in Glasgow be as legitimate as a Conservative MP elected in Surrey?
Gove: Yes. I did not say it [a Labour government supported by the SNP] would be illegitimate. I did say it would be deeply harmful to this country.
Q: What do you think of the prime minister’s claim that this is a career defining election?
Gove:: It is a defining election for the whole country. The careers that matter are the careers of the 2m people who’ve got jobs now who didn’t have jobs before as a result of us.
Q: Is a big bloc of SNP MPs the equivalent of the Irish Nationalists in the late 19th century which obviously changed the habits of GB politicians?
Gove: I am fascinated by history and Alex Salmond has compared himself to Charles Stewart Parnell [the nineteenth century Irish Nationalist leader]. But I think what we have now is actually an unprecedented situation because you would have a weak leftwing prime minister held hostage every day. You can have up to 14 votes a day in the House of Commons. There have been 1,000 votes in the last five years. If, before every single one of those votes, Ed Miliband has to secure the support of the SNP, go cap in hand to Nicola Sturgeon and to Alex Salmond and to their fearsome 50 that means we will have a paralysed government which will result in more taxation, more spending and more borrowing for all of us.
Q: Ed Miliband was clear in the Question Time debate: there will be no deals with the SNP.
Gove: He was clear that he wouldn’t have the SNP in a coalition and he wouldn’t have a confidence and supply arrangement. But the SNP aren’t offering that and aren’t talking about that. The SNP are talking about supporting him vote by vote, day by day. That is precisely the danger we are pointing out today - that rather than their being one deal there will be daily deals between the SNP and the Labour party if we don’t have a majority Conservative government.
Updated
Here’s the Ukip MEP and parliamentary candidate Patrick O’Flynn on David Cameron’s comment about the election being “career-defining”.
Cameron says GE2015 is a "career defining" election. Nice to know who he is thinking of at this important time for the country.
— Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep) May 1, 2015
Speaking on Radio 5 Live, Hodge insisted that she had had absolutely nothing to do with the shares being sheltered offshore. She said she paid full tax on the shares when she inherited them, and she criticised her relatives for sheltering them in Liechtenstein, a tax haven.
What happened here was I am a Jewish immigrant, my family came from Germany and Austria, during the war dispersed all over the world. An uncle in America and an aunt in France established a trust. I had absolutely nothing to do with establishing a trust. I didn’t control it and I didn’t run it.
I didn’t benefit from it at all when it was offshore. I inherited the shares when they came onshore and I have always paid tax to the full.
This was all a legacy, an inheritance from my refugee Jewish family.
I only inherited the shares when they were brought onshore and I paid tax on it. Am I critical of my relatives? Yes, I don’t think she should have done what they have done. I understand why they did it, they were refugees.
All I can say is this was a trust established by not even people who were British citizens. They set it up, they controlled it, they ran it. Only when the shares were in the UK did I inherit them.
Have I paid full tax - full tax - since they have been here? I have, honestly I have. I can’t see what else you could have expected me to do.
I’m not sure who produced this, but it’s fun, and it could help Ed Miliband’s optimism ratings (see 12.31pm) a bit.
Cameron avoids ruling out further cuts to child benefit
Here is the start of Rowena Mason’s story from David Cameron’s speech at the Asda HQ in Leeds this morning.
David Cameron pointedly avoided ruling out cuts or other changes to child benefit on Friday, two days after the Liberal Democrats leaked a document detailing how such plans were proposed in 2012 ...
While Cameron spoke emphatically, his language was equivocal. Speaking at Asda headquarters in Leeds on Friday morning, Cameron was again asked if he could be more explicit and rule out a cut in child benefit, but again did not make this promise.
“With child benefit we’ve made our reform,” he said. “We’ve said it is a vital benefit for Britain’s families. It goes straight to the mother in most cases. It forms a key part of family budget. We’ve made our reform. We’ve frozen it in this parliament and said we’ve said we’ll have to freeze it for two years in the next parliament. We’ve said child benefit stays because it’s so important.
“But should we be reforming welfare? Should we have a country where it always pays to work? Yes we should.”
Here is today’s Guardian three-minute election video. Hugh Muir and Anne Perkins are discussing whether Ed Miliband was right to rule out a deal with the SNP so bluntly.
You can never accuse the Greens of shying away from the difficult issues. In a reader Q&A with PinkNews, Natalie Bennett, the Green party leader, was asked about her stance on polyamory rights - whether people in three-way relationships should be allowed civil partnership or marriage. This is not a topic that has so far consumed a great deal of attention during the election, but Bennett, to her credit, gave a full answer. She would think about it, she said.
Here is the Q&A in full.
Q: At present those in a ‘trio’ (a threeway relationship) are denied marriage equality, and as a result face a considerable amount of legal discrimination.
As someone living with his two boyfriends in a stable longterm relationship, I would like to know what your stance is on polyamory rights. Is there room for Green support on group civil partnerships?
Bennett: At present, we do not have a policy on civil partnerships involving more than two people. We are, uniquely in this country, a party whose policies are developed and voted for by our members. We have led the way on many issues related to the liberalisation of legal status in adult consenting relationships, and we are open to further conversation and consultation.
Cameron beats Miliband on optimism rating
Does hope always beat fear in an election? If so, David Cameron should be on course for victory. According to a YouGov poll for the Times’s email briefing, Red Box, Cameron’s net optimism rating (those who see his policies and ideas as optimistic, minus those who see them as pessimistic) is now +19. Miliband’s is +8.
Michael Gove was speaking earlier (see 11.36am) at a Conservative photocall with 50-odd activists wearing Nicola Sturgeon masks. They were trying to illustrate ... well, it’s obvious, really.
Looks like there will be 5 years of this. Michael Gove unveils the 'fearsome 50' - @theSNP Westminster contingent pic.twitter.com/tvE4o02h64
— Nicholas Watt (@nicholaswatt) May 1, 2015
Good to see that David Cameron has been having a go at the Guardian.
Cameron on @guardian: 'It's not a newspaper for reading, it's for helping to start the fire on a cold winter's evening' (via @timesdiary)
— James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) May 1, 2015
(Although, compared to some of the comment we get BTL, that is almost complimentary.)
Updated
Clegg says Miliband's stance on the SNP is 'ludicrous' and 'infantile"
Like Nicola Sturgeon (see 11.56am), Nick Clegg has also criticised Ed Miliband for ruling out deals with the SNP.
'Ed Miliband is being completely ludicrous, infantile', says Clegg in Manchester, about Labour apparently ruling out lib-lab coalition
— Tamara Cohen (@tamcohen) May 1, 2015
'Ed Miliband will have to eat his words, it's a democratic fact' - Clegg on coalition #GE2015
— Tamara Cohen (@tamcohen) May 1, 2015
Not that “will have to” in Cohen’s tweet. That suggests that Clegg does not expect David Cameron to remain as prime minister.
An average of 4.3 million viewers watched last night’s Question Time leaders special – a 21.1% audience share – peaking at 4.9 million.
Scheduled earlier than its traditional post-10pm news slot, it was up about 50% on the BBC1 programme’s typical audience, and the same as the 4.3 million (20.5%) who watched the channel’s election debate on 16 April.
For comparison, ITV’s Emmerdale, which was on at the same time as David Cameron was speaking, drew just over 5 million viewers (25.2%).
Sturgeon says Miliband's latest 'no deal with SNP' comment will be 'disastrous' for Labour in Scotland
In Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader, said Ed Miliband’s comments last night ruling out a deal with the SNP, even if that costs him his chance of forming a government, will be “disastrous” for Labour in Scotland.
Ed Miliband’s disastrous revelation that he would rather let the Tories back in than work with the SNP to keep them out will galvanise even more people to vote SNP. Already, more than half a million people who voted Labour at the last general election are journeying to voting SNP next Thursday.
Ed Miliband has allowed his campaign to be dictated and pushed around by the Tories south of the border - and Labour will pay a heavy price in Scotland. His extraordinary remarks make it even more important that Scotland unites to elect a big group of MPs to give Scotland a decisive position at Westminster and lock the Tories out.
Updated
Today's Guardian seat projection - Tories 277, Labour 266
The Conservatives lead in the polls means that the party has “recaptured” all the projected losses over the past month (the party had in fact dipped to 269 seats in mid-April).
However, if you look at the possible alliances, the “anti-Tory” bloc - those parties that would vote a Cameron government down - still hold a lead - albeit a small one - and the Conservatives are projected to lose 38 seats to Labour. Cameron needs to roughly cut this deficit by a third. Simply put, the Tories need to open up an even greater lead over Labour in the final days of the campaign.
It is also worth keeping in mind that most of Labour’s lost ground over the past month is driven by Scotland - and any seat Labour loses to the SNP makes no difference to the overall arithmetic. And there is a ceiling to the number of seats Labour can lose in Scotland and Miliband’s party has pretty much hit it - things (in Scotland) can only get better on 7 May.
Police monitoring activities of Green party candidate
My colleague Rob Evans has discovered that police have been monitoring the political activities of a Green party candidate standing against Nigel Farage in South Thanet.
Official documents show that police have been monitoring Ian Driver’s political activities since at least June 2011, recording his appearances at public meetings and demonstrations.
One of the entries notes that Driver is a “Green Party councillor and parliamentary candidate for Thanet South”.
The records on Driver, 49, have been stored in a secretive database set up by police to track campaigners deemed to be “domestic extremists”.
The publication of the records comes as there are mounting questions over the police’s monitoring of elected politicians.
Driver said the monitoring of his “entirely lawful protest” was “highly inappropriate”, as the police knew that he was a parliamentary candidate and a councillor. He added that it “could impact on my rights as candidate in an election to speak openly and frankly on policy matters”.
Driver, who has no criminal record, was selected in January last year by the Green Party to contest Thanet South. That month, police logged that he was one of thepeople at a protest outside a Margate hotel where Farage was addressing his supporters.
You can read the full story here.
Updated
Michael Gove has been putting some positive spin on David Cameron’s “career-defining” verbal slip (see 11am) to some receptive reporters.
The Tory chief whip told Guido’s Harry Cole the careers that matter to both him and the prime minister were “the 3 million people he wants to give apprenticeships to, and the 2 million others he wants to see in work.”
Gove defending Cameron career comment pic.twitter.com/fyD4J8Lnaq
— Harry Cole (@MrHarryCole) May 1, 2015
At Labour HQ they’re furious that one of the audience members who brutally criticised Ed Miliband on Question Time last night applied to be a member of the audience as an undecided voter - despite the fact that she has publicly backed the Tories.
Catherine Shuttleworth, who runs a business, said that Ed Balls should be sacked for saying that the note about there being no money left was a joke. She told the Daily Telegraph afterwards that she had applied to be a member of the audience on the basis that she was undecided about how she would vote.
But she was seen giving a thumbs up to George Osborne in the press spin room, and, as LabourList reports, she set up a business with someone who is now a Tory MP and signed the pro-Tory letter from small business owners.
I’ve called her office for a comment, and will let you know what she says.
UPDATE AT 3.45PM: Shuttleworth did call me back, and she said it was totally untrue to say that she applied to be a member of the Question Time audience under false pretences. See 3.45pm for the full details.
Updated
Theo Bertram, a former aide to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, has been tweeting about the slightly uncomfortable way the party leaders have been asking for the names of their questioners. He has a few theories on the reasoning:
There are three reasons why the leaders in last night's QT debate would each have been coached to repeat the names of those in the audience
— Theo Bertram (@theobertram) May 1, 2015
1. It only buys you a few seconds to say 'thanks Colin great question' but it's enough to compose your thoughts without looking like a lemon
— Theo Bertram (@theobertram) May 1, 2015
2. *In theory* the audience member should glow with pleasure when you say their name and keep glowing while you talk
— Theo Bertram (@theobertram) May 1, 2015
So when the camera pans back on to them for the reaction shot, the audience at home see someone smiling, glowing, responding. *In theory*.
— Theo Bertram (@theobertram) May 1, 2015
3. Finally there's that Bill Clinton moment http://t.co/9KcCUAfFSW
— Theo Bertram (@theobertram) May 1, 2015
Updated
Labour says Cameron's 'career-defining' election slip shows he 'always gets his priorities wrong'
Labour says David Cameron’s “career-defining” slip (see 11am) shows he has got his priorities wrong. This is from Jon Ashworth, the shadow Cabinet Office minister.,
The problem with David Cameron is he always gets his priorities wrong. He puts his career before country, just as he puts a privileged few before working people.
Updated
Cameron says the election will be 'career-defining'
The David Cameron event is now over. Before it finished, Cameron said the election would be a “career-defining” one.
"This is a real career-defining election!" David Cameron just shouted, before swiftly correcting himself. "Country-defining!"
— Michael Deacon (@MichaelPDeacon) May 1, 2015
This is a 'career defining' election, says Cameron by mistake https://t.co/qHC5N7OR7z
— Ned Simons (@nedsimons) May 1, 2015
This has prompted a rare tweet from David Axelrod, the Obama election strategist who is advising Labour.
The PM's Freudian slip showing? In speaking 2 crowd, Cameron describes next week's vote as "career defining," before subbing word "country."
— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) May 1, 2015
A survey of almost 200 Labour councillors in target seats by Anglia Ruskin University’s Labour History Research Unit has found that almost 40% of them would accept Vince Cable as deputy prime minister if Labour had to form a coalition with the Lib Dems. Another 44% said they would not accept Cable.
But only 13% would accept Nick Clegg as deputy prime minister. Some 83% said Clegg would be unacceptable.
(I was surprise the figure was as high as 13%!)
Russell Brand has been tweeting about David Cameron today.
CEO's like Cameron are what make Britain a great company. I mean country.
— Russell Brand (@rustyrockets) May 1, 2015
That was intended to be pejorative, but Cameron would probably like the idea of being depicted as a dynamic CEO. He does have a corporatist view of government, and the Conservatives’ election pitch is, to a large extent, based on the idea that they would do a good job of running UK plc.
Perhaps Lynton Crosby will be signing Brand up for the next Tory PPB.
Updated
Cameron is speaking to Asda staff. An employee has just received a round of applause for asking a question about schools.
Asda staffer gets first round of applause for asking David Cameron about those who aren't getting school places
— Rowena Mason (@rowenamason) May 1, 2015
Cameron says he wants more good school places, and also higher standards in all schools.
Q: What exactly going to do on child benefit?
Cameron says the government has already made the reforms it wants to make on child benefit.
But that does not mean that other aspects of the welfare system need to be reformed, he says.
David Cameron's Q&A
David Cameron says what Ed Miliband said last night “changes nothing”.
Is he really saying that if Labour don’t not get a majority, but if Labour plus the SNP is a majority, ‘I won’t be prime minister’? Of course he’s not saying that. So the threat today is the same as the threat yesterday.
Cameron says that Burnham’s comment this morning confirms that.
So, Cameron says, he is entitled to warn about the dangers of Labour ruling with the SNP.
- Cameron says Miliband’s SNP ‘no deal’ pledge on Question Time “changes nothing”.
Updated
Ed Miliband has finished his speech. If he is taking questions, I will have to rely on Twitter to pick that up, because the BBC website has just finished its live feed.
In Yorkshire David Cameron is taking questions now.
Speaking about the SNP, he adopted a slightly different line. He stressed that he was not saying that the SNP were illegitimate, or that they did not have a right to vote at Westminster. But he was saying Labour should not work with a party committed to breaking up the UK, he said.
Miliband says in the Question Time Election Leaders Special last night Cameron was asked three times to say whether he would cut child benefit. He used 600 words in his replies, Miliband says. But he did not use the one word that he should have used: no.
To protect child benefit, people need to vote Labour, Miliband says.
Miliband says Labour would effectively cancel bedroom tax from its first day in office
Back in Cardiff, Ed Miliband has just announced that Labour would effectively cancel the bedroom tax on its first day in office. It would do that by making funds available to councils to allow them to compensate people for the cost of the bedroom tax in full.
So on day one of a Labour government we will free families from the burden of the bedroom tax. That is the difference a Labour government will make.
-
Miliband says Labour would effectively cancel bedroom tax from its first day in office.
Updated
While Ed Miliband is speaking in Cardiff, David Cameron is just about to start an event in Yorkshire. He has his wife in the audience.
Mrs Cameron has turned up to watch the PM in action today pic.twitter.com/Hp4Js7FIUJ
— James Tapsfield (@JamesTapsfield) May 1, 2015
Ed Miliband's speech
Ed Miliband is speaking now in Cardiff.
He says Carwyn Jones’s administration has shown what a difference a Labour government can make.
It has introduced the living wage for the NHS in Wales, he says. It has created jobs growth. And it has passed pioneering legislation on organ donation, tackling homelessness and protecting women and girls from violence.
On Twitter George Osborne, the Conservative chancellor, is urging Ed Miliband to clarify what he would do in a hung parliament situation.
Ed Miliband claim he won't do deals with SNP unravelling. Unless he answers this question, he is deliberately deceiving the British people..
— George Osborne (@George_Osborne) May 1, 2015
If Labour doesn't have a majority in parliament, but Labour + SNP do, would Ed Miliband try to become PM?
— George Osborne (@George_Osborne) May 1, 2015
Ed Miliband is speaking at an event in Cardiff.
He is being introduced by Carwyn Jones, the Labour first minister. Jones has just said that, in her Ask Leanne Wood event last night, Wood, the Plaid Cymru leader, confirmed that her party were still committed to independence.
You can watch a live stream of the event here.
Updated
Burnham says a minority Labour goverment would talk to SNP and other parties
Andy Burnham, the shadow health secretary, is conducting a phone-in on Radio 5 Live.
He has said that a minority Labour government would talk to the SNP and other parties about getting its business through the Commons.
It is a statement of the obvious, but, in the light of Ed Miliband’s comment last night, the Tories are keen to present that as an indication of Miliband being committed to a “deal” of some sort with the SNP.
Burnham says 'of course' there will be a dialogue with the SNP to pass legislation if Ed Miliband becomes PM pic.twitter.com/yz9vGZtmfk
— CCHQ Press Office (@CCHQPress) May 1, 2015
Asked on 5Live re SNP, Andy Burnham: "Parties talk in the House of Commons about Govt business, that’s what happens, all parties talk."
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) May 1, 2015
The Spectator’s James Forsyth thinks Burnham’s comment undermines what Miliband said last night.
Hasn't Andy Burnham just undercut what Miliband said last night? Bizarre messaging
— James Forsyth (@JGForsyth) May 1, 2015
And Ed Miliband is visiting Cardiff.
Ed Miliband on train. Says enjoyed last night, right to get tough time. Says would say same on Lab not overspending pic.twitter.com/5LE4bKP2IQ
— lucy manning (@lucymanning) May 1, 2015
Ed Miliband denies stumble metaphor for campaign. Says people not interested in me walking off stage but PM walking away with child benefit.
— lucy manning (@lucymanning) May 1, 2015
Ed Miliband will kick off a whistle-stop tour of Britain with a visit to the Millennium Centre in Cardiff pic.twitter.com/zxTWeWWJnR
— Sam Lister (@sam_lister_) May 1, 2015
Cameron has limbered up for another day of campaigning post Question Time with a run along the canal in Leeds
— James Tapsfield (@JamesTapsfield) May 1, 2015
It is international workers’ day. Leanne Wood, the Plaid Cymru leader, has marked this by saying austerity is “not inevitable”.
Seven years on from the bankers’ bailout, Plaid Cymru says it’s time people were given decent wages and conditions. We’ll end exploitative zero hours contracts and we want the minimum wage raised to the level of the living wage by 2020.
YouGov poll gives Labour 1-pt lead
Good morning. I’m taking over now from Mark.
Here are today’s YouGov polling figures.
Update: Lab lead at 1 - Latest YouGov / The Sun results 30th Apr - Con 34%, Lab 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%; APP -14 http://t.co/3aD7gmhv8W
— YouGov (@YouGov) May 1, 2015
My colleague Frances Perraudin, who is travelling with Nick Clegg’s entourage in Manchester, has more detail on the Lib Dems’ red line on NHS funding, which would be non-negotiable in any coalition deal after the election:
In the fourth red line announcement this week, the party said it would insist on investing an extra £8bn each year in the health service by the end of the next parliament, as well as introducing maximum waiting times for mental health services.
The Conservative party has said it would find the £8bn in extra funding that NHS England chief Simon Stevens said the service needed by 2020, but it is yet to outline how it would raise the money.
The Labour party has pledged to give the NHS a £2.5bn “down payment” in the first year of the next parliament, paid for through a mansion tax on properties worth over £2bn, and a levy on the profits of tobacco companies and hedge funds.
Other red lines outlined by Clegg this week include passing a stability budget within the first 50 days of the next parliament (rejecting Tory plans to cut £12bn from welfare and forcing Labour to commit to a timetable on deficit reduction) and increasing the tax-free personal allowance to £12,500 by 2020.
The Liberal Democrat leader admitted he had previously been “quite reluctant to talk about the language of ‘deal-breakers’ and ‘red lines’ and so on” but that in the late stages of the election campaign the party needed to set out what its deal-breakers would be.
“We’ve always been quite open about the fact there are some sort of Premier League policies and others [that] don’t assume quite the same significance,” he said. “But I really don’t want that to lead you to the conclusion that somehow we are indifferent to the other policies. We will fight very hard obviously to decant as much of our manifesto into any coalition agreement as we very successfully did last time.”
Updated
During last night’s BBC TV special, Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood said it was “highly irresponsible” of Ed Miliband to rule out a deal with the SNP and said her door was still open to the Labour leader.
Wood made it clear that she would be prepared to negotiate working with Labour to keep out the Tories even if the SNP was excluded.
She said: I think what the leader of the opposition has said tonight is highly irresponsible. There are enough of us potentially to band together to stop another Conservative government.
“I would have thought given the people he is meant to represent that that kind of deal would be quite high up on his agenda. Ruling out any kind of deal with the SNP is irresponsible. I would have thought he wold have wanted to work with others to stop the Tories. I’m prepared to do that.”
Plaid Cymru and SNP work closely together and Wood and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon get on extremely well. Wood told an BBC television audience in Cardiff that the two parties had a “sketch of a plan” of how they could operate together to secure influence after the election. But she also made it clear she would work without the SNP if necessary.
Wood also re-stated her claim that Wales should receive an extra £1.2bn from the UK Treasury to achieve parity with Scotland and argued that such a sum would allow an end to austerity. “Wales deserves parity,” she said. “We see no good reason why people in Wales deserve less than people from Scotland.”
Nigel Farage's morning interviews - summary
The Ukip leader has stepped up his battle with the BBC, warning that if he was in a position of power he would cut both the corporation’s funding and influence.
Farage, who has pulled out of a BBC Radio 1 appearance later today, told Sky News:
Ukip are the fourth major party in British politics and that is something that has been respected by Sky, ITV, Channel 4 and Channel 5 but not by the BBC. If I was in a position of power, I would take away a lot of their funding, a lot of their influence.
On an interview with the Today programme, the Ukip leader also said he would “absolutely not” help Labour form a government, and also ruled out a formal coalition with the Tories and the Lib Dems, saying he would rather “drive the agenda” rather than accept a ministerial car.
He also claimed Ukip’s total seat haul on 8 May “could well be” in double figures.
Humphrys is pressing Farage on tactical voting. He says even Michael Gove thinks a certain amount of tactical voting is useful, such as to keep the SNP out in Labour’s Scottish seats.
He is asked realistically how many seats Ukip can get. He doesn’t know, he says, but it “could well be” in double figures.
Farage says he would absolutely not help Labour
He says he doesn’t want a ministerial car, but wants to “dive the agenda” in the next government by coming third in the popular vote across the country.
Farage says Ukip 100% would not join a coalition with the Tories and the Lib Dems, but possibly would have a “confidence and supply” arrangement.
The interview is over. I’ll post a summary shortly once I can get the key quotes nailed down (I don’t have Sparrow levels of typing speed, unfortunately).
Updated
Nigel Farage's Today interview
Nigel Farage is being interviewed by John Humphrys on R4.
Farage says Ukip is about far more than just the EU. It started as a protest movement, but they now have a plan for afterwards.
But why not just vote Tory if you want an EU referendum, Humphrys asks. Ukip can hold the Tories’ feet to the fire, Farage says.
Lib Dems want £8bn more for NHS and mental health guarantees as price of a coalition
Nick Clegg, for obvious reasons, has been the most willing of the main party leaders to outline what the Lib Dem “red lines” would be in order to enter a coalition government.
The party has just announced its latest immovable pledge, for an NHS cash injection of £8bn a year and guarantees on mental health waiting times. It also says (in a tap on the wrist to the Tories) the coalition partner would need to “set out how it will pay for it”.
This from the Press Association:
The Tories or Labour will have to invest an extra £8bn a year on the NHS by 2020 if they want the support of the Liberal Democrats in a coalition, Nick Clegg will say as he set out his latest “red line”.
The Lib Dems would also insist on introducing maximum waiting times for mental health services as part of the price for co-operation after May 7.
The Tories have committed to meet the 8 billion-a-year target set by NHS England boss Simon Stevens, but the Lib Dems say David Cameron has failed to explain how it would be funded.
Mr Clegg will add: “If you love the NHS so much, put your money where your heart is. That’s what the Liberal Democrats have done.
We won’t join a government that refuses to commit to giving the NHS the money it needs or set out how it will pay for it.”
Douglas Alexander says SNP 'want to harm the Labour party'
Douglas Alexander, who is facing a tough fight to keep his Labour seat in Paisley and Renfrewshire South, didn’t roll back the rhetoric over Labour’s unwillingness to do any sort of deal with the SNP.
He said that nationalists would not be forgiven in Scotland if they brought down a Labour government and let in the Conservatives.
“Let’s just look at the example of 1979 where, the last time the SNP were in a position like this, they brought down a Labour government and brought in Margaret Thatcher.
“The SNP have much less leverage than they are claiming that they would have. Ed Miliband has been very clear. We will put forward a queen’s speech setting out the priorities for the country.”
.@Douglas4Paisley says @theSNP want 'to hurt Labour', in response to Ed Miliband saying he wouldn't do deal with SNP. pic.twitter.com/F4mPFSwuYe
— BBC Radio 4 Today (@BBCr4today) May 1, 2015
Alexander also admitted that Liam Byrne’s “there’s no money left” note – wheeled out endlessly by the Tories this election campaign – “was not a wise note to write” and knocked down the link between Labour’s spending and the financial crisis:
Lehman Brothers didn’t collapse because Gordon Brown built too many schools and hospitals.
Updated
Video highlights of last night's Question Time
If you missed the special leaders’ show, and don’t quite believe just how stuck in the audience got, our video desk have launched a great highlights package here.
Douglas Alexander is being interviewed by John Humphrys on Radio 4 now. I’ll listen in and post the highlights shortly. Will Labour attempt to cool the language a little on just how unwilling they are to work with the SNP?
Morning briefing
Good morning and welcome to this Friday edition of the Guardian’s election live blog, the first of the month of May. I’m Mark Smith and I’ll be helming the blog this morning, with Andrew Sparrow taking over slightly later than usual today due to his exertions covering last night’s debate Question Time leaders’ special.
You can tweet me @marksmith174, email mark.smith@theguardian.com, or please share your thoughts and recommendations below the line, as always.
The big picture
So, this time next week we’ll know who the country has elected to lead its government – won’t we? Last night’s BBC event was the last chance for the main party leaders to make their pitch to voters from a prime-time stage, and – like with many of these TV set-pieces – there was no knockout blow. But there were some clear trends and talking points.
This prompted the SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon, at a later Q&A broadcast only in Scotland, to say:
I heard Ed Miliband and he sounded awfully like he was saying – and I hope I’m wrong about this because I think people across Scotland and the rest of the UK would be appalled if I’m right, he sounded as if he was saying that he would rather see David Cameron and the Conservatives back in government than actually work with the SNP.
Now, if he means that then I don’t think people in Scotland will ever forgive Labour for allowing the Conservatives back into office. But if he is a minority government, then he will not be able to get policies through without winning support from other parties.
As Jonathan Freedland points out in his sharp analysis of how the three leaders fared, perhaps Miliband’s true achilles heel in this election is not the SNP, but his failure to debunk the narrative that Labour’s profligacy was the reason for Liam Byrne’s “no money left” note, which came back to bite Labour again:
The most lethal missile of the night came from the man who asked whether Miliband would admit that the last Labour government had overspent. When the Labour leader said no, a lowing sound could be heard, the noise of an audience uniting in sceptical rejection of the man before them – a reminder that one of Miliband’s greatest errors since 2010 was his failure to debunk the narrative that blames Labour profligacy for the country’s fiscal troubles.
David Cameron was firmly in Passionate Pumped-Up Cameron mode. He probably did not win anyone over, but he sounded more engaged than he has of late, and he held up well under tough questioning. As Gaby Hinsliff wrote in her snap verdict on the PM:
For Tory waverers-to-Ukip, there was a renewed vow to make a referendum on Europe a red line, effectively ruling out another Liberal Democrat coalition (though since most of those Lib Dems likely to survive are if anything even less keen, that’s perhaps not as significant as it once was). And it felt as if the heat is going out of immigration a little; Question Time audiences are usually obsessed with it but newer anxieties are perhaps crowding it out.
But they don’t trust him. In fairness, many voters probably don’t trust any of them. And yet the wariness, the unwillingness to give him the benefit of the doubt as many did in 2010, is palpable and should worry Tory HQ as it heads down the final straight.
In other news overnight:
-
A snap ICM poll for the Guardian found that David Cameron was judged to have performed best in the debate, with 44% of people saying Cameron won, 38% Miliband, and Clegg on 19%.
- In a later Ask Farage programme on the BBC, the Ukip leader Nigel Farage said the rise of SNP shows Ukip could thrive even if Britain voted to stay in EU.
- In a fairly anodyne STV Q&A, Nicola Sturgeon was pressed heavily on the prospects of holding a second independence referendum in Scotland in the next 10 years, which she refused to rule out.
- Ed Miliband was seen to stumble off the stage slightly, which became a thing on Twitter and a gift for the rightwing press’s metaphor-mongers …
Friday's Telegraph front page: Miliand stumbles over his spending record #bbqt #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/1LUv9KIu7R
— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) April 30, 2015
The big winner
After weeks of griping about the alleged bias of the BBC’s political audiences – from all parties, but especially from Nigel Farage – there was near-unanimous praise for last night’s Question Time audience in Leeds.
Can the BBC please give this audience their own show? I'd watch every week.
— Fraser Nelson (@FraserNelson) April 30, 2015
Blimey. Wouldn’t cross this audience would you? This is how it should be. Make politicians fear the people #bbcqt
— Owen Jones (@OwenJones84) April 30, 2015
Friday's Daily Mail front page: The night real voters finally had their say #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/SoTKSd45C7
— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) April 30, 2015
Today’s diary
- 7.10am: Labour’s Douglas Alexander is on the Today programme
- 8.10am: Ukip’s Nigel Farage is Today’s main interviewee
- 10am: David Cameron hosts a PM Direct event in west Yorkshire
- 10am: Nick Clegg visits the Manchester Withington constituency
- 11am: Jim Murphy talks to car showroom workers in Paisley
- 11am: Willie Rennie, the Scottish Lib Dem leader, visits a mental health pet therapy centre in Edinburgh
- 12noon: Ed Miliband and Rachel Reeves host a Labour speech and Q&A
- 1pm: Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson tours the Borders, speaking in Melrose and Galashiels
- 1.30pm: Clegg is in Solihull
- 3.30pm: The Greens launch their LGBTIQ-manifesto
- Early evening: Ed Miliband speech in Glasgow rounding up his May Day campaign tour of the UK
Your reading list
Philip Collins in the Times says a Miliband government without popular consensus will face a backlash (£).
The question of legitimacy will linger after this election. A prime minister will take office on a low share of a low turnout. A Tory-led coalition will lack legitimacy in Scotland but will at least have the argument that it is lef by the party that won most seats and votes. A Labour-led coalition will lack legitimacy in England and, if it is governing from a clear second-place, it might be better to seek a second election than to first walk into power and then into oblivion.
Matthew Engel in the FT says the night was “a massacre” for all the party leaders (£), thanks to the plain-spoken Yorkshire spirit of the audience:
Someone decided this event would take place in Leeds, largest city in Yorkshire, where things work differently. You never have to ask Yorkshire people their opinion because they will give it you soon enough. And, ba gum, they gave it to the party leaders. Supposedly the audience was divided into four equal groups of voters: Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and others. But it was 100 per cent Yorkie, and it showed.
Cameron now has the answer off smooth to all the hard questions. Food banks hold no terror for him any more. And when he is prepped, pumped up and ready to go he is the best there is among the current crop of politicians. He doesn’t deploy humour or change of mood and change of pace in the way that Tony Blair could. But it was impressive. Not only were his answers practised, polished and still seeming fresh, but many of them were more persuasive than anyone in the audience expected.
If today were a song …
… it would be Catatonia’s I am the Mob – in honour of the rottweiler-like Question Time audience in Leeds.
Don’t try and tell me it’s not one for the money / Two for the money / Three for the money … Come on.
But which party leader will end up sleeping with the fishes?
Non-election news story of the moment, ICYMI …
Updated
