Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Nadia Khomami

Election 2015 live: Basic state pension to rise to £7,000 a year by 2020 under Conservatives

David Cameron on the campaign trail in Leeds, May 1, 2015.
David Cameron on the campaign trail in Leeds, May 1, 2015. Photograph: TOBY MELVILLE/AFP/Getty Images

Afternoon summary

Today was the final Saturday of the general election campaign, and parties were out in force meeting voters and attempting to present themselves as the best option for Britain. But what should have been an explosive day on the battle trail was momentarily reduced to an afterthought when it was announced that the Duchess of Cambridge had given birth to a baby girl. Party leaders took time out from travelling across the country and attending various rallies to to offer their congratulations to the royal couple. Rather now than on polling day.

The big picture

While Ed Miliband seeks to redefine the election debate as a clash between competing political values rather than a Tory-driven battle between England and Scotland, senior figures in his own party have have expressed reservations about him flatly ruling out any kind of deal with the SNP.

Ed Miliband gives a speech at a Labour Party general election campaign rally in Glasgow on May 1, 2015.
Ed Miliband gives a speech at a Labour Party general election campaign rally in Glasgow on May 1, 2015. Photograph: Andy Buchanan/AFP/Getty Images

Henry McLeish, a former first minister of Scotland, today joined a growing number of party figures saying the Labour leader could not deny himself the chance of being prime minster by refusing to talk to Nicola Sturgeon.

I can’t bind Ed to anything but, look, you know well enough that the pragmatic political side will say: ‘I’m going for a majority, all this talk of speaking to anyone is out of the question’.

On the other hand, the politics of reality say I would rather see Ed Miliband in No 10, no matter the conditions. But certainly that’s the big alternative to David Cameron.

At the end of the day, Ed is not going to exclude himself from being prime minister by not talking to anyone.

Shadow health secretary Andy Burnham said yesterday the party would “of course” have a dialogue with the nationalists, while Caroline Flint, the shadow energy secretary, suggested the parties could make informal arrangements. Their comments contrast with the hardline stance taken by Miliband, who ruled out any Labour-SNP pact, even if it cost him the chance to form a government, during an appearance on Question Time on Thursday.

The Conservatives pounced on this almost immediately. Tory chief whip Michael Gove insisted the SNP “will extract concession after concession from Ed Miliband” as they hold him hostage in Downing Street. One thing is becoming abundantly clear: Miliband will not be able to put the Labour-SNP rhetoric to rest anytime soon.

What happened today

  • Miliband spelt out 10 bills that will be at the centre of a Labour Queen’s speech during an interview with the Guardian. These included an energy market and price freeze bill, an NHS Time to Care bill, a tuition fees reduction and university finance bill, and an anti-tax avoidance finance bill (see 09:36).
  • David Cameron said the basic state pension would rise to £7,000 a year by 2020 under the Tories. This is on top of any additional pension entitlements such as SERPS and the second state pension, which already average more than £1,000 a year (see 09:54).
  • Nick Clegg set out proposals for a new Lib Dem task force aimed at tackling youth unemployment, which would be set up within the first 100 days of the next government. It includes mandatory one-to-one careers advice for every student, an additional 100,000 work experience places and funding for 250,000 grants for small businesses to take on more apprentices (see 12:04).
  • Clegg also criticised Labour’s attempts to oust him from Westminster, branding the party “disgraceful” and insisting the effort to unseat him in his constituency of Sheffield Hallam will be in vain (see 15:28).
  • Nicola Sturgeon said Ed Miliband’s comments that he is prepared to let the Tories back into office rather than work with the SNP has shown that it is only the SNP that can be trusted to deliver progressive politics (see 15:38).
  • Former Liberal Democrat leader Charles Kennedy urged the SNP to end the “anxiety” over a second independence referendum (see 15:46).
  • Nigel Farage said the one thing he got wrong in the election campaign was thinking Ed Miliband would move towards the position of offering a referendum on EU membership (see 12:19).
  • Natalie Bennett revealed Green plans to re-regulate buses and introduce free local trips for young people and students (see 12:37).

Quote of the day

“I strongly urge all Ukip candidates to take at least an hour out of campaigning in order to toast the new arrival. I shall certainly be setting an example in that regard. After all, some things are worth interrupting politics for” - Nigel Farage, commeting on the birth of the royal baby.

Laugh of the day

“I was only trying to get a selfie with Nick Clegg. I collect selfies with famous people but so far I’ve only got (Coronation Street star) Michelle Keegan when she came to Solihull” - 17-year-old student Will Carrie talking about the moment his trousers dropped in front of the Lib Dem leader.

Tomorrow’s agenda

Nigel Farage, Nick Clegg and Yvette cooper will all be on the Andrew Marr show on BBC One tomorrow from 9am. If last week’s Boris Johnson v Miliband face-off is anything to go by, it will be a heated couple of hours and set the pace for a day of political debate and derision.

That’s it from me for today. Join the Guardian’s election team again tomorrow morning, as we bring you the latest news, reaction, analysis, pictures, video, and jokes from the campaign trail.

Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy has responded to Nicola Sturgeon’s remarks about Miliband’s commitment to “progressive politics”. Campaigning alongside Gordon Brown in Glasgow, Murphy said:

I wanted to laugh, that’s my response to the sort of ridiculous things Nicola Sturgeon says on this.

Look, the Labour party has existed since it’s first day standing out against the Tories, standing for a sense of social justice, standing for a belief in dignity at work. The Labour party has always been a party that will stand up for working class families

Only Labour is big enough and strong enough to stand up to the Tories. If Scotland votes Labour the whole of Britain will have a Labour government.

We have a huge amount of energy and a vast amount of determination. We know we’re behind in the polls in Scotland but look, Labour’s plan for a higher minimum wage, the abolition of zero hours contracts, that sort of social justice is what our country needs and we need to make sure these next few days are David Cameron’s last in Downing Street.

After landing in Inverness, Nicola Sturgeon went directly to the high street where a crowd of over a hundred activists had been waiting since mid-morning.

Despite being behind schedule, she was greeted with gusto and quickly disappeared into the crowds - which must be a nightmare for her security staff. “It’s hoaching in Inverness” one of her handlers had noted warily on the way into the city. Still, one burly minder suffered a direct hit from a seagull in Stonehaven earlier, a sign of good fortune if ever there was one.

Much has been written about the first minister of Scotland’s burgeoning political and personal appeal lately, but scant coverage has been given to her astonishing proficiency with camera phones, once again in evidence today.

As members of the public fumble, regardless of make or model Sturgeon can flip the lens and snap the requested selfie in seconds. “I consider myself a selfie specialist” she told my cheerfully on board the Nicolopter afterwards.

On Inverness high street the Liberal Democrats were valiantly continuing with their own campaign events, including the arrival of Charles Kennedy and Danny Alexander in a vintage open topped Daimler.

Despite the difference in volume, local Lib Dem activists insisted that their supporters were equally ardent, but expressed in more reserved ‘Highland way’. It remains to be seen whether this silent majority that Better Together boss Alistair Darling so frequently - and correctly - called on during the referendum campaign will come together the keep Alexander in his seat of Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey.

Alexander told me that he was feeling “quietly confident” on the final weekend of campaigning. “The SNP have obviously biased in supported from all over Scotland to be part of her crowd. Our supporters are out knocking doors around Inverness. There is a quiet determination locally to make sure we don’t end up with an SNP MP next Friday.”

Updated

Ed Miliband’s latest campaign stop is in London, where a host of celebrities have gathered to give their backing to the Labour leader. Journalist Sam Lister is there:

Updated

Charles Kennedy urges Nicola Sturgeon to end "anxiety" over second referendum

While Nicola Sturgeon has been slamming Ed Miliband for his hardline stance on a Labour-SNP deal, former Liberal Democrat leader Charles Kennedy is also in Inverness with Danny Alexander and Scottish Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie. Kennedy has urged Sturgeon to end the “anxiety” over a second independence referendum.

The uncertainty that exists over another referendum must come to an end. We settled the issue last September and need to move on to the big issues that now face our country.

Yet Nicola Sturgeon’s refusal to rule it out is causing great anxiety. Divisions in communities, economic consequences and the Government taking its eye off the ball are just some of the problems which come with a second referendum.

Nicola Sturgeon has the power to put all of this uncertainty to bed. All she needs to do is keep the promise she made time and again during the referendum and rule out a second independence vote. Nicola Sturgeon should stop ducking and weaving and give a clear answer.

Labour have sent me a statement regarding Cameron’s failure to rule out cuts in child benefit and tax credits during his appearance on BBC Breakfast this morning:

David Cameron did not say ‘I will not cut Child Benefit or Tax Credits’, nor has he or any Conservative Minister done so at any time over recent days. The Tories continue to claim that their freeze on Tax Credits and Child Benefit combined with getting more people into work will help them reach their £12 billion target. But the reality is that the plans they have already set out are nowhere near enough to raise £12 billion by 2017-18.

As the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies said earlier this week the measures already announced by the Tories “would reduce benefit spending by around £1.5 billion a year”. That means they still have more than £10 billion of cuts to find.

This is what Cameron said during the interview:

I’ve been very clear on child benefit. I couldn’t have been clearer but I do come back to this point. What we are trying to save out of welfare is about half of what we saved in the last parliament.

Nicola Sturgeon says Labour cannot be trusted to deliver progressive politics

Nicola Sturgeon has said Ed Miliband’s comments that he is prepared to let the Tories back into office rather than work with the SNP has shown that it is only the SNP that can be trusted to deliver progressive politics. Speaking at an SNP rally in Inverness, Sturgeon said her party has put forward plans to end austerity “by pursuing modest spending increases that will enable investment in the NHS and other public services in Scotland and across the UK”. This includes pressing for an increase in the minimum wage to £8.70 by 2020, supporting an annual target of building 100,000 affordable homes across the UK, opposing cuts to disability support and voting to retain the triple lock on pensions.

Nicola Sturgeon visits by helicopter as she campaigns on May 2, 2015 in Inverness, Scotland.
Nicola Sturgeon visits by helicopter as she campaigns on May 2, 2015 in Inverness, Scotland. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

SNP MPs will work to build progressive alliances at Westminster and deliver an end to the cuts.

What is now clear is that Ed Miliband does not share the same commitment.

No-one who is truly committed to delivering progressive politics would contemplate for one minute ushering the Tories back into office, rather than work with the SNP.

The SNP are contesting this election to bring about an end to austerity, and achieve increases in public spending that will give the NHS the funding it needs in Scotland and across the UK.

With his actions, Ed Miliband has made it abundantly clear that the SNP are the only party in Scotland with a genuine commitment and plan to deliver progressive policies for the benefit of people across the UK.

Updated

The Mail is running a story about Labour’s secret plans of a £45billion tax raid. The paper reports that City sources say Ed Balls wants to cut the deficit without cutting public spending, and that he would do this with a string of tax hikes. A “longlist” of options circulating in the City includes restricting tax relief on pension contributions, the abolition of mortgage interest relief on buy-to-let properties and an increase in capital gains tax from 28% to 40%.

This is all hearsay of course, but George Osborne has issued a statement regarding the reports. “If the SNP put Ed Miliband into Downing Street on 8th May, we now know they will come after your money with higher taxes. This will have real consequences for you and your family - cut incomes, lower living standards, and more insecurity,” he said. “It’s time for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to be honest about exactly what damaging tax rises on working people and our economy they are planning.”

Nick Clegg speech in Sheffield

During a rally in Sheffield Hallam earlier this afternoon, Nick Clegg criticised Labour’s attempts to oust him from Westminster, branding the party “disgraceful” and insisting the effort to unseat him will be in vain. He said a victory for Labour’s Oliver Coppard, who was ahead of Clegg by one point in recent polls, is “not going to happen”. Clegg also thanked activists for their support.

Nick Clegg attends a campaign rally at Banner Cross Methodist Church, Sheffield, May 2, 2015.
Nick Clegg attends a campaign rally at Banner Cross Methodist Church, Sheffield, May 2, 2015. Photograph: Jonathan Brady/PA

You are the most resilient, resolute and remarkable set of campaigners any MP, any candidate could wish for.

I have been out with you knocking on thousands of doors over the last several weeks and the reason I know, and the reason you know, that we are going to win is because what the Labour Party don’t understand is you can’t barge into a community - having done nothing for that community ever, in fact short-changing that community - and then vilify the people who picked up the mess that you made in the first place, and blame them, and expect to represent that community. It’s not going to happen.”

You don’t win a general election by just suddenly walking around at the 59th second of the 11th hour and say “I don’t like the other lot, I don’t like the difficult decisions the Liberal Democrats had to take because of the mess that Labour created in the first place”.

That doesn’t compete with the service - day in, day out, week in, week out - we have provided to Sheffield.

Clegg added that Labour would cut £2.5bn from nursery-to-college education funding.

They now plan to cut spending on local nurseries, schools and colleges. How dare they complain about the savings we had to make to balance the books after the mess they made, when they want to cut spending on education by 2.5 billion every year by the end of this parliament. It is disgraceful.

PA reporter Paul Ward is with Gordon Brown in Glasgow, where the Labour campaign took a musical turn.

Updated

There’s all to play for in the Labour target seat of Croydon Central, Dave Hill writes. All through the campaign London-wide polls have had Labour on course to win marginal from the Conservatives, but US master pollster Nate Silver has predicted a Tory hold, with 42.4% of the vote compared with Labour’s 40%, and a new Lord Ashcroft survey on Thursday gave the Tory incumbent Gavin Barwell a four point lead.

George Osborne is tweeting about what the Tories would do in their first 100 days in government. A lot of road improvements, it would appear.

Nick Clegg has said the Lib Dems don’t want a Labour party who haven’t learned the lessons of past. “There’s nothing remotely progressive about shrugging our shoulders and letting our kids pick up the tab for our mistakes,” he said during his speech in Sheffield.

Sky have tweeted a segment of Clegg’s speech, in which he cheers for the royal baby.

Nick Clegg is at a rally in Sheffield.

Danny Alexander is campaigning in Inverness at the same time as Sturgeon.

Party figures are currently campaigning up and down the country, and we have photos of all of their activities on the Guardian picture desk.

Here’s Ed Miliband campaigning in Hastings.

Ed Miliband poses for pictures after addressing Labour supporters and endorsing parliamentary candidate Sarah Owen at Sussex Coast College in Hastings, May 2, 2015.
Ed Miliband poses for pictures after addressing Labour supporters and endorsing parliamentary candidate Sarah Owen at Sussex Coast College in Hastings, May 2, 2015. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA
Ed Miliband arrives in Hastings, May 2, 2015.
Ed Miliband arrives in Hastings, May 2, 2015. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Ed Balls is at the Norwich City v Fulham football match.

Ed Balls watching Norwich City v Fulham at Carrow Road, May 2, 2015.
Ed Balls watching Norwich City v Fulham at Carrow Road, May 2, 2015. Photograph: Rob Howarth/REX Shutterstock/Rob Howarth/REX Shutterstock

Nicola Sturgeon is in Inverness.

Nicola Sturgeon visits by helicopter as she campaigns on May 2, 2015 in Inverness, Scotland.
Nicola Sturgeon visits by helicopter as she campaigns on May 2, 2015 in Inverness, Scotland. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

David Cameron was in Cheadle earlier.

David Cameron speaks with people at the ‘Secret Garden Cafe’ in the ‘Golden Days Garden Centre’ on May 2, 2015 in Cheadle, near Manchester.
David Cameron speaks with people at the ‘Secret Garden Cafe’ in the ‘Golden Days Garden Centre’ on May 2, 2015 in Cheadle, near Manchester. Photograph: WPA Pool/Getty Images

And Nigel Farage is in Ramsgate.

Nigel Farage toasts the arrival of the Royal baby at a public house in Ramsgate, Kent, May 2, 2015.
Nigel Farage toasts the arrival of the Royal baby at a public house in Ramsgate, Kent, May 2, 2015. Photograph: Gareth Fuller/PA

With just five days until the election, Tory campaigners are pounding the pavements today to woo the Capital’s minority ethnic voters in marginal seats.

Activists posed with Angie Bray, the local Conservative candidate who is seeking reelection Ealing Central and Acton before door-knocking in the area where Labour has been leading in the polls.

Raza Anjum, 30, the chairman of Conservative Connect said: “our campaign is achieving positive results on the ground. Diverse members of the electorate, including members of the ethnic community, are surprised by our presence in such large numbers.”

He said voters were: “willing to hear our side of the story”, adding, “we are engaging in positive discussions on the doorsteps.”

When asked whether the Tories have done enough over the five years to gain the support of minority ethnic voters, Anjum said: “With the polls indicating a tight race, it is the marginal seats which will determine the outcome of the election result.”

“The substantial presence of diverse communities in these marginal seats means that that we need to engage with those who are not historically supporters of the Conservatives,” he said.

Organisers at Conservative Connect – with a team who collectively speak more than a dozen languages – have launched a “diversity” London battle bus, and say the campaign aims to specifically target voters from varying social-economic, ethnic and cultural backgrounds who have the potential to play a crucial role in marginal seats.

In the 2010 general election, only 16% of the minority ethnic voters supported the Tories. while more than two thirds voted Labour.

The value of the pound fell against the dollar on consecutive days this week due to the uncertainty of the general election, according to the Press Association.

Investors generally get spooked in a tight election race because they do not know which set of economic policies they will be dealing with under a new government. And with the opinion polls deadlocked, pointing towards a hung parliament and a potentially messy series of negotiations before a government is formed, market uncertainty may only grow. It only took five days for the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats to thrash out their Coalition Agreement in 2010 but the Scottish National Party (SNP) surge north of the border makes things much more complicated this year. A lengthy period of negotiations will likely lead to more volatility in the financial markets.

Meanwhile, in Ramsgate:

The boy who accidentally dropped his trousers in front of Nick Clegg yesterday has spoken out... 17-year-old student Will Carrie said he only wanted a picture to add to his tiny “celebrity selfies” collection.

I was really embarrassed when I got home and saw the footage everywhere on Sky. I was only trying to get a selfie with Nick Clegg. I collect selfies with famous people but so far I’ve only got (Coronation Street star) Michelle Keegan when she came to Solihull.

I saw my mum last night and she was a bit mortified at first but I think she has seen the funny side now.

Maybe it’s time to get some new jeans.

Here’s that clip again:

Guardian Scotland reporter Libby Brooks is currently on board Nicola Sturgeon’s helicopter with the SNP leader.

Updated

Natalie Bennett reveals Green plan to re-regulate buses

Natalie Bennett was at a rally in Bristol earlier, where she spoke alongside the Green Party candidate in Bristol West, Darren Hall. Hall is currently second in the polls in Bristol - and remains as the only challenger to Labour in the constituency. These are the key points of Bennett’s address:

Natalie Bennett campaigning in London, May 1, 2015.
Natalie Bennett campaigning in London, May 1, 2015. Photograph: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
  • Bennett called for the re-regulation of buses.

I’m pleased to announce our plan to re-regulate the buses.

Outside London, where private bus operators choose their routes, timetables and fares, with no regulation or fare cap, services have got worse and bus use has gone down by more than 30% since 1986. Over two-thirds of local transport authorities have cut bus services due to local government cutbacks.

We will give local authorities the power to regulate bus services – ending two decades of decline in this most vital of public services.

  • Bennett called for free local trips for young people and students.

With one in five young people in further education considering dropping out because of costs, we are also pledging to make local public transport free for under 18s and students. If we’re serious about tackling climate change, and ending our reliance on car use, then we need to give young people a real incentive to use public transport.

You can read Bennett’s full speech here.

Nationalists in Inverness are awaiting the arrival of Nicola Sturgeon.

The Telegraph have got a hold of internal SNP documents highlighting the areas the party has identified where it shares common ground with the Labour party. They also specify the policies it will attempt to force Miliband to adopt as its price for making the Labour leader prime minister in the event of a hung Parliament.

Apparently, the SNP “will attempt to force Miliband to increase spending on the health service and welfare in exchange for support on policies such as the introduction of a 50p top rate of tax and the scrapping of the spare room subsidy”.

Nigel Farage says he was wrong about Ed Miliband

Nigel Farage has said the one thing he got wrong in the election campaign was thinking Ed Miliband would move towards the position of offering a referendum on EU membership. He said this made any deal between his party and Labour impossible.
As the Press Association reports, Farage also criticised David Cameron for changing his stance over the years and said he did not like the terms or the timetable of the proposed referendum. But he stressed he would have a “conversation” with the Conservatives “if we could get a referendum”.

I don’t really get on well with any of them, to be perfectly honest.

The one thing I got wrong in this campaign is that I said nine months ago that I thought Miliband would go towards the referendum position on Europe to try and box the issue off.

He didn’t do that and from a Ukip voter’s perspective it’s completely impossible to do a deal with a man that won’t give a referendum.

Cameron’s position on this has been pretty ambiguous over the years, where he has said yes, then he said no, now he has said yes again.

So he is committed to a referendum, although I don’t like the timeframe and I’m not very convinced about the terms of the referendum, so there is a possibility that if we could get a referendum we could have a conversation with them.

Hugh Grant, April 30, 2015.
Hugh Grant, April 30, 2015. Photograph: Gareth Fuller/PA

Donate to the Lib Dems and you could win a dinner with Hugh Grant....

Last week, the actor lent his support to the party by urging people to vote for Danny Alexander in Inverness.

Lib Dems propose new taskforce aimed at tackling youth unemployment

Here’s some more detail about the Lib Dems’ proposed new taskforce aimed at tackling youth unemployment, which they say would be set up within the first 100 days of the next government. The plans being set out by Nick Clegg aim to get 100,000 young adults into work, on-the-job training or full-time education. The Lib Dem youth unemployment action plan will include:

  • Mandatory one-to-one careers advice for every student and a “business in schools” strategy to encourage links between employers and schools.
  • Funding for an additional 100,000 work experience places by using 40 million of money cut from David Cameron’s National Citizen Service.
  • A doubling of the number of businesses taking on apprentices by securing funding for 250,000 grants for small businesses to take on 16-24-year-olds and establish new national technical colleges to train young apprentices in key sectors such as renewable energy.
  • A continued commitment to protecting funding for colleges in England and investing in child and adolescent mental health services.

At a rally in Yorkshire later today, Clegg is due to say:

The number of jobless young people was rising long before the financial crash in 2008.

But because we rescued the economy, created jobs and invested in a record two million apprenticeships, we have turned the corner.

Youth unemployment is falling - by more than 110,000 in the last year.

We are now within touching distance of something that has seemed out of reach for years.

That’s why I want to set a new, bold ambition. By the end of this parliament I want us to cut youth unemployment to its lowest levels since records began.

It is hugely ambitious but it is absolutely achievable.

We can do it by doubling the number of businesses that hire apprentices; opening up work experience; transforming careers advice; and improving mental health services.

And above all else, we can do it by keeping our economy strong.

The latest figures show 14% of people aged 16-24 were not in work or full-time education in January 2015. The lowest rate of youth unemployment recorded was 11.8%, in 2001 and 2004.

Updated

Guardian writer Libby Brooks has also interviewed Miriam González Durántez. The lawyer and wife of Nick Clegg discusses the Lib Dems’ record in government, why coalitions are good and who gets to go into ‘dark rooms’ with her husband.

Miriam Gonz‡alez Dur‡ntez visiting Gordon constituency to campaign with Liberal Democrat candidate Christine Jardine.
Miriam Gonz‡alez Dur‡ntez visiting Gordon constituency to campaign with Liberal Democrat candidate Christine Jardine. Photograph: Murdo MacLeod for the Guardian

We have a new interview with Labour’s Dennis Skinner. The Derbyshire MP, who has been in the commons since 1970, tells my colleague Stephen Moss why he’s standing again at the age of 83.

But why on earth is he standing again at 83? He’ll be close to 90 if the next parliament runs its course – only Gerald Kaufman, standing again for Labour in Manchester Gorton at 84, is older. “Mainly because Cameron told me to retire,” Skinner says. “People seem to forget. He told me three times in parliament. If I’d have finished, it would have looked as if he’d scored a victory. He would have talked about it. The moment he said that, I knew I’d have to run.” But in any case, he doubts whether the parliament will last a full five years. “It looks a lot like 1974,” he says. “I would guess either Miliband or Cameron would consider doing what Harold Wilson did and having a second election.”

Nigel Farage has just called on all Ukip candidates to take an hour out of campaigning to toast the royal baby.

I would like to extend my warmest congratulations to the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge on the latest addition to their family. The arrival of a royal baby is always an exciting and joyous event for millions of patriotic British people and many places will no doubt be decked out in red, white and blue to mark the occasion.

I strongly urge all Ukip candidates to take at least an hour out of campaigning in order to toast the new arrival. I shall certainly be setting an example in that regard. After all, some things are worth interrupting politics for.

The Ukip leader is currently campaigning in Ramsgate.

Nigel Farage talks to reporters before campaigning on May 2, 2015 in Ramsgate.
Nigel Farage talks to reporters before campaigning on May 2, 2015 in Ramsgate. Photograph: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images

The royal baby will have no impact on the outcome of the election, according to Yougov’s Anthony Wells. Wells makes the point that the birth of Prince George and the Royal Wedding had no discernible effect on polls. The Diamond Jubilee was followed by a couple of polls with a reduced Labour lead, but nothing that couldn’t have been normal sample variation. Even events with direct relevance to the election, such as the leaders debate, have little or no effect on voting intention.

The only direct impact it makes is the news agenda. If any of the parties were planning on a big policy announcement over the weekend it will now have to struggle against the royal baby to get in the papers and the news bulletins.

Of course, should the polls move in the next few days I expect history will record that the royal baby won the election for David Cameron, in the same way that we pretend that the bug in Gordon Banks’ tummy lost the 1970 election for Harold Wilson. In reality I expect any change in the polls over coming days will be noting at all to do with royal procreation, and everything to do with the existing drivers of voting intention – people making their minds up or changing their minds based on perceptions of the leaders and parties, of competence in running the economy and public services, and hopes of fears of what sort of government will emerge from a hung Parliament.

Nick Clegg has beaten David Cameron to offer his congratulations to the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge, who have just had a baby girl.

Predictably, all election news has come to a momentary standstill.

Updated

Nigel Farage has challenged David Cameron to a bet over Ukip’s chances of winning any seats at the election. Farage is responding to Cameron’s claim that Ukip will fail to take any Westminster seats on Thursday.

This is a fascinating piece on Labour’s campaign in Southampton Itchen, where the party is testing modern campaigning methods. It’s worth noting that the latest round of polling by Lord Ashcroft in marginal constituencies found that Labour’s contact with voters was running at a higher level than the Conservatives’.

If Labour emerges as the largest party from the election next week, some say the decisive factor won’t be the “air war” of policy and personality – it will be this “ground war”, which Ed Miliband referred to on Thursday when he proclaimed the “four million conversations” that party activists had held with voters so far. For Frank Spring, a US political consultant who has flown in to help Davis and has something of that American campaign stardust about him, “it is all a matter of what universe you are trying to pull.” Translation: finding the right people to speak to. And it’s an area in which Labour believes it has an advantage.

“It’s been an evolution,” says one Labour strategist. “At the last election, we saved a load of seats where we had higher contact rates with voters than the Tories because of that marginal difference. The Conservatives don’t really have the local activists who can go out and have those conversations.” But that’s not just about boots on the ground, he adds: “Digital tools like NationBuilder enable better organising in a way that is a qualitative improvement on where we were. Because they’re commercially available to anyone who wants to start a campaign, they massively lower the barrier for entry to that kind of activity. You can do things that wouldn’t have been possible.”

Meanwhile, Natalie Bennett is in Bristol.

Miliband is campaigning in Hastings now. I’ll post a summary of his address when I receive further details.

Rupert Murdoch has jetted into London ahead of next week’s election, the Spectator is reporting. Remember, in his interview with Russell Brand last week, Miliband claimed Murdoch is “much less powerful than he used to be.” Let the battle commence.

Tory chief whip Michael Gove has been quick to respond to Henry McLeish’s comments:

Michael Gove speaks to members of the media in Victoria Tower Gardens on May 1, 2015.
Michael Gove speaks to members of the media in Victoria Tower Gardens on May 1, 2015. Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

One of the most senior figures in Ed Miliband’s Party is openly admitting that he will end up doing deals with the SNP.

The reality is – vote by vote, issue by issue, day by day – the SNP will extract concession after concession from Ed Miliband as they hold him hostage in Downing Street. It will mean higher debt, higher taxes and higher mortgage rates for working people, putting our economy at risk.

Former Labour Scottish first minister Henry McLeish says Miliband needs the SNP to become PM

Former Labour Scottish first minister Henry McLeish has said Miliband needs the SNP to get into Downing Street. Speaking on the Today programme, McLeish said Miliband is not going to exclude himself from being prime minister by refusing to speak to people.

Henry McLeish campaigning in Kirkcaldy, 23 April 2015.
Henry McLeish campaigning in Kirkcaldy, 23 April 2015. Photograph: Murdo MacLeod for the Guardian

On 8 May the mind will be focused on the real consequences of the election. Clearly it’s in Ed Miliband’s interest to say look, he’s in here to win… I think he is being pragmatic. I don’t think in the real world of politics because if he says one thing, you know, he will be jumped upon, he says another, so I’m quite happy with the view, I mean, two of his senior people have come out and said of course they may want to discuss matters with every party including the SNP.

I can’t bind Ed to anything, but look, you know well enough that the pragmatic political side will say look, I’m going for a majority, all this talk of speaking to anyone is out of the question. On the other hand, the politics of reality say, I would rather see Ed Miliband in Number 10 no matter the conditions, but certainly that’s the big alternative to David Cameron, and at the end of the day, Ed is not going to exclude himself from being Prime Minister by not talking to anyone.

Yesterday, Andy Burnham said “of course” Labour would have a “dialogue” with other parties. Labour MP Caroline Flint added: “What Miliband ruled out was this idea that, somehow, to have a Labour government we’re prepared to do a coalition or some other kind of confidence and supply deal. But … whoever forms a government, parties will get a chance to vote for a Queen’s Speech, vote for budgets, and vote for policies.”

The former chair of the Royal College of GPs has resigned from her post at NHS England to campaign for Labour. Professor Clare Gerada was chair of the Royal College during the passage of the Health & Social Care Act, a Bill she was openly critical of. She later moved on to work for NHS England with a task of consolidating primary care provision in London. She is due to speak at a rally in Ealing this evening alongside shadow health secretary Andy Burnham, but has sent out this statement in advance:

I have left my post because I feel we are in a danger zone for the NHS, for mental health provision and for social care as well.

The results of the Health & Social Care Bill have been catastrophic. No one knows who is in charge anymore and services are in free-fall.

NHS staff are terrified of what is in store if the current approach continues - morale is at an all-time low and patients are rightly becoming increasingly afraid about the future of their care.

It is well known that David Cameron had previously pledged “no more top down reorganisations” yet promptly set Andrew Lansley onto the task of doing exactly that - and as a result, the structure of the NHS has become fragmented and increasingly difficult to manage.

Remember the Times front page story claiming that Labour would cost every working family an extra £1,000 in taxes? Well, it was wrong...

Basic state pension to rise to £7,000 a year by 2020 under Conservatives

The basic state pension would rise to £7,000 a year by 2020 under the Tories, Cameron is due to reveal today. This is on top of any additional pension entitlements such as SERPS and the second state pension, which already average more than £1,000 a year. The Conservatives’ pensioners’ manifesto includes pledges to:

  • Continue to increase the state pension through a triple lock.
  • Take the family home out of Inheritance Tax for all but the richest by raising the effective threshold for married couples and civil partners to £1 million.
  • Reward saving by introducing a new single-tier pension.
  • Put the country’s leading expert on pensions, savings, and financial education, Dr Ros Altmann, at the heart of government. Altmann will help see through reforms while leading a review of financial fairness for consumers.
  • Give five million pensioners the freedom to access their annuity – from next year the punitive tax charge will be abolished and tax applied at the marginal rate.
  • Continue to protect pensioner benefits including the free bus pass, TV licences and Winter Fuel Payment.
  • Restore the right to access a specific, named GP and guarantee same-day GP appointments for all over 75s who need them.

The Tories claim that under Labour’s policy, where the Basic State Pension rises by the highest of inflation or 2.5% instead of earnings, it would be £127 a year lower by the end of the next Parliament. In a statement sent out to reporters, Cameron said:

I have a simple view that if you have done the right thing – worked, saved and paid your taxes - you should be rewarded, not punished. That is why I am determined to make Britain the best country in which to grow old – security and freedom when it comes to your pensions; guaranteed, personal access to your GP; and the ability to pass on the family home to your children.

But that will all be at risk if Ed Miliband, propped up by the SNP, walks into Downing Street next week. It would mean a return to higher taxes, spending and borrowing and pensioners would be particularly vulnerable because many of them do not have the option of increasing their incomes by working more. There is only one way to stop that – vote Conservative on 7 May and stick with the plan that is working.

Updated

David Cameron was on BBC Breakfast earlier this morning, where he warned people they need to vote Conservative on Thursday if they want to stop Ed Miliband entering Downing Street.

David Cameron on the campaign trail yesterday
David Cameron on the campaign trail yesterday Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

In the end only one of two people can walk back through that door in No10 and be the prime minister on Friday.

If you want your preferred prime minster, vote for your preferred prime minister. Don’t take a risk thinking “I’ll vote Liberal Democrat and hope I get the prime minister I want” or vote Ukip and hope somehow it emerges.

If you want me to carry on leading the country, making sure we have that stability and security in our economy, vote accordingly because we are only 23 seats short from that overall majority.

Cameron didn’t miss a chance to add that if Labour did form a government it would only be able to do so with the support of the SNP as it could not gain an overall majority on its own.

If you want to avoid a Labour government propped up by the SNP - which is not just a possible outcome, but frankly a very possible outcome because Labour can’t cross the line on their own - if you want to avoid that because, like me, you worry about having the government being held to ransom by a bunch of people that don’t want our country to succeed, indeed they don’t want our country to exist, then the answer is to vote Conservative.

Our latest poll projection gives you a picture of the numbers that would be required by each party to form a coalition, were polls to remain the same.

poll

Updated

Ed Miliband details 10 prospective Labour Bills

Here’s a full list of the bills Labour wants to implement in government, as revealed by Miliband to the Guardian:

  • Strong economic foundation bill - This would set out new rules to get the deficit down and debt to fall as soon as possible in the next parliament. It would implement a mansion tax and a tobacco levy to fund the NHS, and introduce plans for the Office of Budget Responsibility to audit all the main parties’ manifestos.
  • Energy freeze bill - A bill to freeze energy prices until 2017. The bill would also give the regulator the power to cut prices and a duty to review them and act in time for winter.
  • Make work pay bill - This would ban exploitative zero-hours contracts, and make it illegal to use agency workers to undercut the wages of employees. It would set a new framework for the low pay commission, so that the national minimum wage rises to at least £8 an hour by October 2019, and introduce new make-work-pay contracts to give a tax rebate to employers that sign up to become living-wage employers in the first year of a Labour government.
  • Stronger families bill - This would contain measures to increase free childcare for working parents of three- and four-year-olds to 25 hours a week, funded by an increase in the bank levy, and would guarantee parents of primary-age children access to childcare from 8am to 6pm through their schools, underpinned by a new national primary childcare service to raise the quality of affordable childcare on offer in schools.
  • NHS time to care bill - This bill would repeal the market framework for the NHS and guarantee GP appointments within 48 hours, or on the same day for those who need it.
  • Immigration and exploitation bill - This would make it illegal for employers to undercut wages by exploiting workers, ban recruitment agencies from hiring only from overseas and require large firms hiring workers from outside the EU to offer apprenticeships in the UK.
  • Tuition fees reduction bill - This would cut tuition fees to £6,000 and increase the student maintenance grant by £400.
  • 21st-century technical education bill - This would deliver compulsory work experience for teenagers; guarantee face-to-face careers advice to all young people; and introduce a clear vocational route right through from school to university. This would include a technical baccalaureate for 16- to 19-year-olds, a guarantee of high-quality apprenticeships for all school-leavers that get the grades and new technical degrees at university.
  • Anti-tax avoidance finance bill - This would abolish the non-domiciled rules, close loopholes used by hedge funds to avoid stamp duty, close loopholes that allow some large companies to move profits out of the UK and avoid corporation tax, and scrap the “shares for rights” scheme.
  • More homes and fair rents bill - This would give councils new “use it or lose it” powers to stop developers sitting on land; create local development corporations to build homes at scale where the private sector has failed to; and allow the development of garden cities and suburbs, creating more than half a million new homes. It would also ban extortionate letting agents’ fees and make caps on three-year tenancies at inflation rates the rule, not the exception.

Updated

Morning briefing

Good morning and welcome to the Saturday edition of the Guardian’s election live blog, which we’re running every day until 7 May and – if we end up with another hung parliament as polls are predicting – for some time after that.

I’m Nadia Khomami and I’ll be keeping you up to date with all of today’s political developments. I’m on Twitter @nadiakhomami and, as always, I’ll be reading your comments below the line as well, so do let me know if there’s anything you think I should be covering or have missed.

The big picture

Everyone’s talking about labour today, and unfortunately for Ed Miliband, I’m not talking about his party. Reports reveal that the Duchess of Cambridge has been admitted to hospital in the early stages of labour with her second child, so Royal Baby Watch is well and truly under way. Party leaders will be taking time out from campaigning to wish the royal couple luck. David Cameron has already tweeted this morning: “My best wishes to the Duchess of Cambridge, who is having her second child today. The whole country will wish her well.” I can’t say whether a baby will have any effect on the outcome of the general election, but I don’t doubt that we’ll be reading many speculative articles linking the two as the day progresses.

Meanwhile, there’s an interview with Miliband in today’s Guardian, in which the Labour leader seeks to redefine the election debate as a clash between competing political values rather than a Tory-driven battle between England and Scotland. Miliband claims that Cameron’s focus on Scotland is distracting voters from the bigger issue of inequality in the UK.

Ed Miliband on the train from Paddington to Cardiff Central.
Ed Miliband on the train from Paddington to Cardiff Central. Photograph: Linda Nylind for the Guardian

I have been clear I am not going to have a coalition or a deal with the Scottish National party, but the real battle is not a choice between two nations, as Cameron pretends, but between two sets of values – is the country run by an elite of the most rich and powerful or is it run for working people?

It is an extraordinary collapse for what was once the Conservative and Unionist party to have been reduced to this desperation in a bid to distract voters from the big choices they face over the next five years.

Cameron used to say the three letters that mattered to him most were NHS. Well, in this election campaign they have been replaced by SNP.

Miliband also spells out the 10 bills that will be at the centre of a Labour Queen’s speech, including:

  • An energy market and price freeze bill, to legislate for a promise made at his party’s conference in 2013.
  • An NHS Time to Care bill intended to repeal much of the health reforms instituted under the Conservative-led government.
  • A tuition fees reduction and university finance bill, following a campaign promise to cut fees from £9,000 a year to £6,000.
  • An anti-tax avoidance finance bill.

Responding to Miliband’s comments, the Conservatives have sent me a statement insisting that Miliband can’t deliver what he promises.

He’s ruled out a coalition and he’s ruled out confidence and supply – so if he’s prime minister it will mean a tortured trade-off over every vote on every bill. They’d have to be signed off by Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP – and if they don’t contain what the SNP wants, they simply won’t get through.

A Tory spokesperson added that an SNP-Labour deal would mean more debt, higher taxes, an increase in welfare benefits, an end to our independent nuclear deterrent, an end to right-to-buy, and no EU referendum.

Diary

  • Cameron is due to launch the Conservative manifesto for pensioners today. He will promise to “reward” the hard work of older Britons and will highlight his party’s commitment to the “triple lock” on state pensions, which means they rise by whichever is higher out of inflation, average wages, or 2.5%. Cameron will say:

I have a simple view that if you have done the right thing – worked, saved and paid your taxes – you should be rewarded, not punished.

  • Nick Clegg is campaigning in Yorkshire, where he is setting out plans for a new taskforce aimed at tackling youth unemployment within 100 days of a new government being formed. The Liberal Democrat leader will say his ambition is to see youth unemployment cut to its lowest level since records began more than 30 years ago. “It is hugely ambitious but it is absolutely achievable.”
  • Miliband will hit the campaign trail in London, while Gordon Brown is expected to join the Scottish Labour leader, Jim Murphy, on the trail in Scotland. The shadow health secretary, Andy Burnham, will also give a speech at a rally in Ealing, London, this evening.
  • Sturgeon will continue her helicopter tour, visiting Stonehaven in Aberdeenshire, Inverness and Portree on the Isle of Skye.
  • The former Lib Dem leader Charles Kennedy will team up with the chief secretary to the treasury, Danny Alexander, and the Scottish Lib Dem leader, Willie Rennie, for a tour of the Highlands.
  • The Scottish Conservative leader, Ruth Davidson, will also spend the day travelling around a number of constitutencies.
  • The Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, will aim to win the backing of voters in Kent.
  • The Greens leader, Natalie Bennett, will focus on transport policies.

Your Saturday reading list

Mr Miliband has grown in this campaign. He may not have stardust or TV-ready charisma, but those are qualities that can be overvalued. He has resilience and, above all, a strong sense of what is just. Mr Miliband understood early one of the central questions of the age: inequality. While most Tories shrug at that yawning gap between rich and poor, Labour will at least strive to slow and even reverse the three-decade march towards an obscenely unequal society. It is Labour that speaks with more urgency than its rivals on social justice, standing up to predatory capitalism, on investment for growth, on reforming and strengthening the public realm, Britain’s place in Europe and international development – and which has a record in government that it can be more proud of than it sometimes lets on.

I cannot dictate how other parties vote on individual measures, in the same way that no other party can dictate how the Liberal Democrats vote.

It was Margaret Thatcher who politicised Sturgeon. She talks about the dismantling of industry, mass unemployment, hopelessness and fear. What made her most angry about Thatcher? She recoils. ‘I don’t like the word angry, because I don’t think that’s how it manifested itself. It motivated me to get out there and campaign, and try to change the world for the better.’

We were approaching the steeply banked bend at about 70 miles an hour, and I was rather hoping that my driver would shift his foot from the accelerator pedal to the brake. Instead, he pressed harder on the accelerator. As the needle moved towards 80, he turned to say something to me. I’m not quite sure what it was because that was when he took his hands off the wheel. Both hands.

I can safely say it was the most exciting moment of one of our Today programme’s election road trips.

If today were a song...

The track speaks for itself.

Updated

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
MrBeast’s iconic counting challenge gets a new twist as YouTuber Lets Test Laurence aims for 100,001
A YouTuber named Lets Test Laurence is trying to beat MrBeast’s early viral counting challenge by live streaming himself counting to 100,001. MrBeast’s original 2017 video helped launch his career and later gained millions of views. Laurence’s attempt is being streamed live, adding pressure and uncertainty. The challenge highlights how…
The Times of India
The Times of India
Woman receives $1K Miu Miu shoes from Neiman Marcus. Why does it look like a ‘kid went crazy’ on it?: ‘Nordstrom WOULD NEVERR’
A TikToker has vowed to never shop Neiman Marcus again after a $1,000 Miu Miu shoes return went haywire. Debbie, who is known as @callmedebsss on TikTok, told viewers that her experience with one employee in particular is what led to this decision.
The Mary Sue
The Mary Sue
“Regret the love….”: Gigi Alayah’s cryptic post fuels drama after Kai Cenat finally addresses breakup
Kai Cenat addressed rumors surrounding his December 2025 breakup with Gabrielle “Gigi” Alayah, apologizing for his silence and urging fans to respect both sides. Hours later, Alayah reposted a quote about love and having no regrets, sparking speculation online. While she offered no explanation, fans viewed the message as a…
The Times of India
The Times of India
Frank Sinatra's '50s Living Room Was The Pinnacle of Mid-Century Modern Style in the Palm Springs Desert – Featuring Stone Walls, Curved Furniture, and Natural Wood
We reflect on the gorgeous home of the singer from the '50s for inspiration on integrating the perennially popular mid-century modern style into our homes
Homes & Gardens
Homes & Gardens
Winter Olympics briefing: Pinheiro Braathen writes Brazilian fairytale
Brazil’s president hails ‘unprecedented result’ as 25-year-old wins first Winter Olympic medal for country and continent
The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
'America's Got Talent' creator Simon Cowell has given up working on Fridays because 'it’s pointless'
“I don’t think anyone should be working five days a week," the multimillionaire founder of "The X Factor" said. "It’s just pointless.”
Fortune
Fortune
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.
Download on the AppStore Get it on Google Play