Afternoon summary
Today marked the penultimate weekend of the election campaign, and parties were out in force making their case for a brighter, fairer, and more secure Britain. There’s no such thing as a day off during the election campaign, and while you’ve been having a lie in or running a bath, leaders were busy shaking hands, meeting activists, and giving speeches in various corners of the country.
The big picture
David Cameron launched his vision for black, Asian and minority ethnic communities today during a speech in Croydon, south London. Hoping to win the votes of BME communities - which have traditionally backed Labour in high proportions - the prime minister said a future Conservative government will deliver the following for them by 2020: 20% more jobs, 20% more students, a 20% uplift in apprenticeship take-up, 20,000 startup loans for new businesses, 20% of new recruits in the police to be from BME backgrounds, and at least 10% in the armed forces (see 09:14). He also predicted that the first black or Asian prime minister would be a Tory.
But what everyone’s been talking about is Cameron’s gaff in his speech, where he forgot what football team he supports and urged the audience to back West Ham instead of Aston Villa. While Cameron blamed a Natalie Bennett-style “brain fade” for his mistake, his rivals have used it as an example of his inauthenticity.
What was striking about the incident was that it painted Cameron as tired and dispassionate. The Conservative leader has been on the receiving end of a lot of flack during this election campaign, with many claiming that it seems his heart just isn’t in it anymore. This points to that very conclusion. With recent polling suggesting that, were numbers to remain to same, Ed Miliband is on course to become prime minister, Cameron really needs to push that extra bit harder if he wants the additional seats he needs to win the keys to Downing Street.
What happened today:
- Ed Miliband warned of the “stealth privatisation” of healthcare if the Tories win the election, as Labour unveiled details of its plans to cut the maximum income an NHS hospital can earn from private patients. Shadow health secretary Andy Burnham said the proportion of income which an NHS foundation trust can earn from private work would be cut from 49% to just 2% under a Labour government. Trusts would be allowed to exceed the 2% cap only if they meet strict safeguards to ensure NHS patients are put first (see 10:43).
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Gordon Brown has warned of a second referendum under the SNP during a campaign speech in Paisley. He also announced details of Labour’s plans for more Scottish jobs, saying his party would aim to boost jobs in Scotland’s R&D based companies, expand the City Deals, and encourage investment in a housebuilding programme (see 11:24). Brown said:
There is an SNP candidate in this constituency. She says vote SNP, get SNP MPs at Westminster and we will twist their arms and get another referendum.
Remember what the SNP used to say - the referendum was once in a generation, then it changed a little to once in a lifetime, then it was once every 15 years and now when you ask Ms Sturgeon about this her answers are all evasion. She cannot give a straight answer to the question.
But does not the SNP candidate in this constituency tell the truth, that what they want is an SNP vote not to deliver social justice but to deliver the chaos and constitutional crisis at Westminster to as she said force a second referendum.
- Nick Clegg ruled out any deal with Labour that relies on “life support” from the SNP and said that any coalition with the party that finished second in the election would lack “legitimacy” with voters, who would question the government’s “birthright”. Harriet Harman criticised Clegg for being prepared to “back David Cameron and the Tories once again”.
- Lord Ashcroft released his latest battleground polling, which showed that the Conservatives look set to gain Rochester & Strood, where Tory defector Mark Reckless was re-elected as a Ukip candidate in November. Labour are on course to gain the Lib Dem-held Bristol West, where the Greens have jumped to second place (see 10:02).
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Nicola Sturgeon launched the SNP’s Women’s Pledge in Glasgow, where she said her party would support women into work by increasing free childcare, raising the minimum wage, ending exploitative zero-hours contracts, ending the gender pay gap and supporting the call for a 50:50 gender balance on all boards by 2020 (see 12:38).
Quote of the day
“David Cameron just remembered his favourite football team is Weston Villham” - Comedian Matt Lucas, on David Cameron’s blunder.
Laugh of the day
“It was an early sign of the ruthlessness which has propelled [Nicola Sturgeon] to the top of Scottish - and potentially British – politics” - The Sun’s response to the news that Scotland’s first minister hacked the hair off her sister’s barbie doll as a young girl.
Tomorrow’s agenda
Ed Miliband and Boris Johnson will be on the Andrew Marr show on BBC One tomorrow from 9am. David Cameron will be interviewed by Dermot Murnaghan on Sky News, and he is also due to speak at a rally in Somerset.
That’s it from me for today. Join the Guardian’s election team again tomorrow morning, as we bring you the latest news, reaction, analysis, pictures, video, and jokes from the campaign trail.
Is social media trivialising politics? The Guardian’s Anne McElvoy and Hannah Jane Parkinson ask. Expect several references to #Milifandom and the #Cameronettes.
Updated
In non-election news, John Biggs has been confirmed as the Labour candidate for Tower Hamlets Mayoral by-election, after Lutfur Rahman was barred from office and booted out by the courts last week due to corruption. The date of that by-election is June 11th. Responding to the news, Biggs said:
I am delighted to have been confirmed as Labour’s candidate. Tower Hamlets must now move on from the divisive politics of Lutfur Rahman and his disgraced regime of corruption and mismanagement. We need leadership that is once again open and accountable and restores the trust of the people we’re here to serve. I want to put the council back on everyone’s side. Only Labour can beat Lutfur Rahman’s candidate in Tower Hamlets. My focus will be to restore confidence and to serve local families, addressing the big issues and great opportunities we face in our borough – on affordable housing, on education, on safety and most of all helping build a better future for everyone in Tower Hamlets.
Nigel Farage said an Australian-style points system would mean the needs of British industry, where we have skills shortages, will not be a problem. He said he’s offering a vision of a “dynamic, self-confident country that believes in spirit of enterprise”.
Updated
Farage has talked about what he says are misunderstandings about his views on immigration:
I do not want to pull up the drawbridge, I just want to control who comes across the drawbridge. What Britain needs is migrants who have got trades and skills that we want and that will help make this a better country. We want migrants who bring with them health insurance, not a criminal record. I want immigration to be a positive, both socially and economically, and only by having an Australian style points system can we achieve that.
Nigel Farage is currently giving a speech about Ukip’s business policy in London. I’ll post a summary of that afterwards.
Today’s the day that keeps on giving. Aside from #villagate, there’s been another political story trending on social media, that of #dollgate. This is in reference to details about Nicola Sturgeon’s childhood revealed by her younger sister Gillian Owens in the Sun today, particularly one incident in which the Scottish first minister “devilishly hacked the hair” off her sister’s beloved barbie doll. Owens said:
Nicola and I played together but we were like chalk and cheese. I was into dolls and everything girly. Nicola was into sitting reading. She was a very strong-minded wee girl.
I would just do what I was told. I didn’t like getting in a row. But Nicola would challenge.
The Sun writes that #dollgate was “an early sign of the ruthlessness which has propelled [Sturgeon] to the top of Scottish - and potentially British - politics”.
But Sturgeon appeared on BBC to refute these claims. “I deny the allegations levied at me by my sister. I’m sure I didn’t cut the hair off her barbie doll. But if I did - and it’s an ‘if’ - then there would have been provocation involved, I’m sure of it.”
For the record, I think my sister is misremembering. I'm sure it was a Sindy doll. #DollGate
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) April 25, 2015
Looks like it wasn't just doll hair that sturgeon cut #dollgate pic.twitter.com/nLic1rX7Ko
— Adz (@adam_fairbairn) April 25, 2015
The Guardian picture desk has drawn my attention to these photos. Sometimes the fast pace of this election can take my breath away. Submit your “flocking to the polls” jokes below the line.
Updated
David Cameron has been asked about his football slip-up during an interview with Sky News’ Dermot Murnaghan, which will be broadcast on Sunday. Asked to confirm which team he actually supports, Cameron said:
I’ve been an Aston Villa fan all my life, I literally opened my mouth and I was going off-piste about the fact that in Britain you can be a supporter of the West Indies, a supporter of Manchester United, and a supporter of Team GB.
I was then busking about other things you can support and was ... I don’t know what happened to me, it was just one of those things.
It wasn’t on the script, I was going off-script to add to the examples, and I suppose it is just the campaign. By the time you have made as many speeches as I have on this campaign all sorts of funny things start popping out of your mouth.
Cameron was asked if he remembered watching Aston Villa beat Bayern Munich in the European Cup final as a child. “I do, that’s why I became a Villa fan,” he said. When pressed to say when it was, he replied:
I’m not doing quiz time because I’ll get them all wrong, but that’s not what I’m here to talk about.
That’s why I became a Villa fan, because my uncle was involved in the club, and back in the early 80s, with all those successes, and Andy Gray and Brian Little, and that’s what got me going.
But I don’t go very often, in fact I haven’t been for years and years, but I try and keep up, and I’m hoping we are going to escape the relegation zone, which we’re out of now, and obviously the FA Cup final is very exciting.
Meanwhile, Nigel Farage has a message for the prime minister (he’s looking perky):
UKIP Leader @Nigel_Farage's video message for @David_Cameron on #villagate pic.twitter.com/wnKqrzkNby
— UKIP (@UKIP) April 25, 2015
Updated
The SNP have responded to Gordon Brown’s warnings over a second referendum. Deputy first minister John Swinney said that while Gordon Brown appears to be re-fighting last year’s referendum, the SNP are out talking to voters about next month’s election “and the huge opportunity to make Scotland stronger at Westminster.”
Unfortunately for Labour Brown’s speech this morning simply reminds people once again of how Labour stood shoulder to shoulder with the Tories for two and a half years to talk Scotland down.
The question Labour’s current leadership have repeatedly failed to answer is if there are more anti-Tory MPs - between the SNP and Labour - than there are Tory MPs, will they work with us to lock the Tories out and to deliver better policies for people not just in Scotland but across the rest of the UK.
A strong team of SNP MPs can give Labour the backbone to oppose further cuts and pursue a progressive alternative to austerity.
Updated
Here’s more from Gordon Brown’s speech in Paisley this morning, where the former prime minister warned of a second independence referendum under the SNP. Brown said Nicola Sturgeon’s answers on the issue are “all evasion” but that her party want “chaos and constitutional crisis” at Westminster to force another referendum on Scottish independence.
There is an SNP candidate in this constituency. She says vote SNP, get SNP MPs at Westminster and we will twist their arms and get another referendum.
Remember what the SNP used to say - the referendum was once in a generation, then it changed a little to once in a lifetime, then it was once every 15 years and now when you ask Ms Sturgeon about this her answers are all evasion. She cannot give a straight answer to the question.
But does not the SNP candidate in this constituency tell the truth, that what they want is an SNP vote not to deliver social justice but to deliver the chaos and constitutional crisis at Westminster to as she said force a second referendum.
And I say I don’t want the divisiveness, I don’t want the bitterness, I don’t want the acrimony, I don’t want the divisions between families and communities in the next few months that we had in the past few months.
And when you vote on May 7 remember that you are not just voting to end Tory austerity and the possibility of five more years of the bedroom tax and everything else, you’re also voting on whether you are going to allow the SNP to use your vote to try to force a second referendum on this country within a few months or after the 2016 Scottish Parliament elections.
Harriet Harman criticises Nick Clegg for preparing to 'back the Tories again'
Labour deputy leader Harriet Harman has criticised Nick Clegg for being prepared to “back David Cameron and the Tories once again”, in reference to the Lib Dem leader’s revelation in the Financial Times today that he would not do any deal with Labour that relies on “life support” from the SNP.
As PA reports, Harman said:
Today Nick Clegg says he’s prepared to re-run the coalition that has seen working people’s pay fall 1,600, tuition fees trebled and the NHS taken backwards.
After five years of failing working families perhaps it’s no surprise he is prepared to back David Cameron and the Tories once again.
It shows without any doubt that if you want a Labour government you cannot risk your vote, you need to vote Labour.
Harman and shadow Scottish secretary Margaret Curran will launch a consultation on allowing working grandparents to share parents’ unpaid leave during a campaign visit to Glasgow today.
There have been many ways in which family life has changed, but public policy remains rooted in the past. This was evident in conversations with Scottish women as part of the work of the Older Women’s Commission.
Labour has a better plan for working families. The sharing of parental leave with grandparents would give families in Scotland more flexibility by recognising the important role that grandparents play.
Updated
Lunchtime summary
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Ed Miliband has warned of the “stealth privatisation” of healthcare if the Tories win the election, as Labour unveiled details of its plans to cut the maximum income an NHS hospital can earn from private patients. Shadow health secretary Andy Burnham said the proportion of income which an NHS foundation trust can earn from private work would be cut from 49% to just 2% under a Labour government. Trusts would be allowed to exceed the 2% cap only if they meet strict safeguards to ensure NHS patients are put first (see 10:43).
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David Cameron has launched his vision for black, Asian and minority ethnic communities in Croydon. The prime minister said a future Conservative government will deliver, by 2020, the following for BME communities: 20% more jobs, 20% more students, 20% uplift in apprenticeship take-up, 20,000 startup loans for new businesses, 20% of new recruits in the police to be from BME backgrounds, and at least 10% in the armed forces (see 09:14).
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David Cameron has blamed a “brain fade” for forgetting his football team during his speech in Croydon, urging the audience to back West Ham instead of Aston Villa (see 09:31). The blunder has resulted in many jokes and criticisms by the PM’s rivals (see 12:10).
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Gordon Brown has warned of a second referendum under the SNP during a campaign speech in Paisley. He also
announced details of Labour’s plans for more Scottish jobs, saying his party would aim to boost jobs in Scotland’s R&D based companies, expand the City Deals, and encourage investment in a housebuilding programme (see 11:24).
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Lord Ashcroft has released his latest battleground polling, which shows that the Conservatives look set to gain Rochester & Strood, where Tory defector Mark Reckless was re-elected as a Ukip candidate in November. Labour are on course to gain the Lib Dem-held Bristol West, where the Greens have jumped to second place (see 10:02).
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Nicola Sturgeon launched the SNP’s Women’s Pledge in Glasgow, where she said her party would support women into work by increasing free childcare, raising the minimum wage, ending exploitative zero-hours contracts, ending the gender pay gap and supporting the call for a 50:50 gender balance on all boards by 2020 (see 12:38).
Updated
Sturgeon has joined female activists in Glasgow’s Buchanan Street.
Amazing scenes as Nicola Sturgeon launches SNP "Women's Pledge' for WM #NicolaSturgeon pic.twitter.com/GVBfGmIny3 @BBCDouglasF @BBCScotlandNews
— Euan Anderson (@FreeThinker2040) April 25, 2015
Sturgeon hitting Glasgow like a combination of One Direction and Eva Peron pic.twitter.com/AzDwLx2etG
— James Doleman (@jamesdoleman) April 25, 2015
Nicola Sturgeon launches SNP's women's pledge
Nicola Sturgeon has joined female SNP activists and actor and campaigner Elaine C Smith to launch the SNP’s Women’s Pledge in Glasgow. Sturgeon says the SNP will:
- Support women into work by increasing free childcare, raising the minimum wage, ending exploitative zero hours contracts, ending the gender pay gap and supporting the call for a 50:50 gender balance on all boards by 2020.
- Invest in women by continuing free education, increasing the number of apprenticeships and ensure women know they can pursue any career they choose.
- End the cuts which are disproportionately affecting women by protecting welfare payments such as child benefit, carer’s allowance, child tax credits and savings credit for older women.
- Care for the NHS by protecting its budget, securing its future in public hands and keeping it free at the point of use.
- Ensure that no girl grows up or woman lives in fear of abuse and violence.
No young girl should grow up in 2015 with the prospect of facing a glass ceiling that limits their ambitions. We all owe it to future generations to end gender inequality once and for all – which is why I am launching the SNP’s Women’s Pledge today.
Having appointed the UK’s first gender balanced cabinet, the SNP’s challenge to organisations across the UK is to follow suit and commit to 50:50 representation on their boards by 2020.
Westminster’s austerity cuts have hit women the hardest of all, with 85% of cuts to social security and pensions affecting the incomes of women.
That is wholly unfair and only undermines progress on gender equality, yet Labour is committed to a further £30 billion of austerity.
We cannot continue with the austerity agenda that does so much to undermine women - which is why the SNP has committed to ending the welfare cuts that are disproportionately affecting women.
SNP MPs at Westminster will stand up for gender equality at every turn. We will work for an end to austerity, for equal pay, more and better jobs and to end the barriers that still block the aspirations of too many women in Scotland and across the UK.
Updated
The response to Gordon Brown’s address in Paisley has been largely positive. Sky News’ chief political correspondent called it a “blockbuster speech”.
Barnstorming speech from Gordon Brown supporting Douglas Alexander: "No deals, no coalition, no compromise with SNP." pic.twitter.com/wYVTYzp6aN
— joncraigSKY (@joncraig) April 25, 2015
If Douglas Alexander holds his seat he can thank Gordon Brown for a blockbuster speech in his constituency today. pic.twitter.com/cfsuZF2jDZ
— joncraigSKY (@joncraig) April 25, 2015
Meanwhile, David Cameron’s football blunder has gone viral (the mistake was omitted from the official transcript of his speech issued by the Conservative Party).
From Labour’s former communications chief Alastair Campbell:
Every sports fan in the world will have stomach churning that @David_Cameron (claims to support @AVFCOfficial) mixed them up with WestHam
— Alastair Campbell (@campbellclaret) April 25, 2015
I am sorry but this alone means Cameron has to go. Total million percent phoney as Tim Sherwood might say https://t.co/9O1aZgFXwn”
— Alastair Campbell (@campbellclaret) April 25, 2015
If @Ed_Miliband had a Villa-WestHam type @David_Cameron moment of total phoneyness + inauthenticity media would be in multiple orgasm time
— Alastair Campbell (@campbellclaret) April 25, 2015
From Shadow chancellor Ed Balls (a Norwich City fan):
Hey David Cameron.. I'm off to see that football team I support this afternoon. Name escapes me.. they play in yellow... Watford?
— Ed Balls (@edballsmp) April 25, 2015
From comedian Matt Lucas:
David Cameron just remembered his favourite football team is Weston Villham.
— Matt Lucas (@RealMattLucas) April 25, 2015
From former England footballer Gary Lineker:
David Cameron has forgotten which Football Club he supports. Aston Villa last week, West Ham this. Burnley next? https://t.co/V2pUAprDME
— Gary Lineker (@GaryLineker) April 25, 2015
From the Liberal Democrats:
Lib Dems are piling in. http://t.co/71Atk1hTo2 pic.twitter.com/WUK5n4lVDr
— Ben Riley-Smith (@benrileysmith) April 25, 2015
If you want a chuckle, search #villagate on Twitter.
Updated
Nicola Sturgeon is also at a special ceremony to mark the centenary of the Gallipoli Campaign at Edinburgh Castle.
The party leaders are currently taking a break from campaigning to attend a memorial service commemorating ANZAC day and the centenary of the Battle of Gallipoli at the Cenotaph war memorial in London.
Updated
David Cameron says first black or Asian prime minister will be a Tory
PA has filed some more quotes from David Cameron’s speech in Croydon. Cameron said Britain is a “shining example” of a country where multiple identities work and predicted the first black or Asian prime minister would be a Tory.
One of the things that makes me the most proud to be British is the fact we are the most successful multi-racial democracy on the planet.
One of the defining questions of this, the 21st century, is how do we live together?
I’m not saying that we have solved every problem or tackled every prejudice, we haven’t.
But we have got a good case when we answer that question ... of answering it by saying - like us.
We are a shining example of a country where multiple identities work.
Where you can be Welsh and Hindu and British, Northern Irish and Jewish and British, where you can wear a kilt and a turban, where you can wear a hijab covered in poppies.
This isn’t just about living together, it’s about thriving together.
His remarks are interesting, particularly because ethnic minority voters have long disproportionately backed Labour in British elections. New research released last week suggested the Conservatives’ problem in attracting voters from ethnic minorities could cost them nine seats at the next election, and up to 50 by the middle of the next decade. In 2010, 68% of BME voters supported Labour, against just 16% for Conservatives. Labour support was highest among voters of African, Caribbean and Bangladeshi background, but even among voters of Indian heritage - who were most enthusiastic for the Tories - Labour was still preferred by 61% to 24%.
I’ve compiled a reading list of Guardian articles about ethnic minority voting patterns and representation, which you can read below.
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Afua Hirsch writes that there is a sense of political disengagement among black and minority-ethnic people in Britain due to a lack of BME leaders.
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Hugh Muir writes that all parties lack the policies and strategies to engage Britain’s black and ethnic minority voters.
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Lola Okolosie writes that Labour’s plan for minorities just might win it the election.
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Homeland actor David Harewood turns his skin white in order to persuade black and Asian people to vote in the forthcoming general election.
Updated
Gordon Brown warns of second independence referendum under SNP
Here are some segments from Gordon Brown’s speech, which has been sent to me in advance. Brown might stray from this from time to time - he usually speaks without notes - but these are the key points he will make:
On Douglas Alexander:
I tell you from my experience as Prime Minister that Douglas Alexander will do more to bring positive change in a fifty minute Cabinet meeting as a Labour Minister than even as many as 50 SNP MPs could achieve in five years of protest outside of government.
He will be a leading Scot in a Labour government that will be ending the bedroom tax immediately, legislating against zero hour contracts, raising the minimum wage, helping every young person into jobs or training.
On jobs for Scotland:
It is remarkable that throughout this general election campaign neither the Conservative Party, nor the Liberal Democrats, nor the SNP have said anything of significance on where Scotland’s future jobs will come from.
For our commitment is to make full, fulfilling and quality employment not a distant aspiration but a realistic objective for the Scottish people.
The day after May 7th, Jim Murphy and Labour’s Scottish team plans to send out letters for an economic summit with the aim to:
· Boost jobs in Scotland’s R&D based companies in medical technologies, biotechnologies, information technologies and environmental technologies, including wind, wave and oil technologies.
· Expand the City Deals, with the result we can match plans for 28,000 additional jobs in the west of Scotland with at least a further 20,000 jobs across Scotland’s other city regions.
· Encourage investment in a housebuilding programme that will create jobs. Scottish Labour has committed to tackling Scotland’s housing crisis by building 20,000 new homes a year in Scotland by 2020. And Homes for Scotland estimate that every new home built supports four jobs.
· Make the funds available to guarantee a real, paid job and training to every 18 to 24 year old who has been claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance for more than a year. We plan to end long-term youth unemployment and ensure young people are not left behind.
On a second independence referendum:
The SNP candidate in this seat has told the truth that Nicola Sturgeon won’t admit in public – that the election of SNP MPs would be used to “twist their arm and get that other referendum”.
If you don’t vote Labour and we wake up on May 8th with a host of SNP MPs and a Conservative government we will secure none of the real change we need and instead five more years of Tory austerity, food bank poverty, bedroom tax poverty, zero hours contract poverty, and with the SNP candidate in this constituency already saying that an SNP vote is a demand for a second referendum, an immediate return to the divisiveness, bitterness and acrimony of the referendum campaign - all of this poverty and all of this bitterness avoidable if we have a Labour government.
On patriotism:
Patriotism and being a patriotic Scot means – yes - we want the strong Scottish Parliament with the new powers we have secured for it on welfare and work but it does not require us to resist the cooperation that benefits Scotland, as we draw on the UK wide collaborative research network to create thousands of jobs, draw on revenues from across the UK help fund the new City Deals for Glasgow, Edinburgh, Dundee, Aberdeen and Inverness. And use the extra £150 million to Scotland from the Bankers’ Bonus Tax to create the jobs we need.
Being a proud patriotic Scot means support for a strong Parliament running the NHS here but it does not require us to diminish the value of our UK partnership when we are able to use proceeds from the UK wide Mansion Tax to fund a UK wide commitment to free universal treatment for everyone in our NHS...
Being a proud patriotic Scot means a strong Scottish Parliament acting to bring social justice but does not require us to abandon the sharing at the heart of the modern UK when we all benefit from a UK wide commitment to pool the resources to pay for pensions so that the earnings of 60 million people can be pooled across the whole of the UK...
And being a proud patriotic Scot means a strong Scottish Parliament with powers over employment but does not require us to abandon and throw away the solidarity that has given us a UK national minimum wage...
Updated
Gordon Brown is now giving a speech in Elderslie in support of Douglas Alexander, the Labour candidate for Paisley and Renfrewshire East. In his speech Brown will warn of the possibility of a second independence referendum and call for a Labour vote to achieve social change. He is expected to say:
I believe that the majority of Scots are like me, both proud patriots and men and women who want real change.
And we need people to vote Labour because if we end up on May 8th with a host of SNP MPs and a Tory government we will not only be denied real change we need urgently but, as the SNP then demand a second referendum, the old divisions bitterness and acrimony will start again.
It’s straightforward. If we want to end the bedroom tax, the food bank poverty, the zero hours contracts and the neglect of the NHS we need a Labour Government.
Elderslie awaits the arrival of Gordon Brown ... #GE2015 zero hours contracts and minimum wage on the agenda pic.twitter.com/8mrdbSyfsQ
— Graham Mann (@GrahamRMann) April 25, 2015
While out campaigning, Miliband has also spoken about the possibility of doing a deal with the Lib Dems after the election, saying he would “let the people decide”. He told Sky News:
There are some people who are commentating on what happens after the election. I’m concentrating on the issues at this election. That’s what I’m going to do for the rest of this campaign because I think there are huge issues on the ballot paper, issues like the National Health Service, issues like the economy we create.
So, we’ll leave it to others to commentate. We are going to go out and fight for what we believe in this election.
So Miliband has ruled out any sort of formal deal with the SNP and Nick Clegg has ruled out any deal with Labour that would rely on SNP support. This will be interesting.
The Liberal Democrats have dismissed Labour’s warnings of NHS privatisation. Lib Dem campaign spokesman Lord Paddick said it was rank hypocrisy from a Labour Party beholden to the private sector when in government.
Under Labour, private providers were paid 11% more than NHS providers for the same treatment and their PFI (private finance initiative) deals are still costing the taxpayer 1 billion a year in repayments.
The Liberal Democrats put an end to these sweetheart deals, blocked PFI contracts, prevented privatisation of the NHS through the back door and increased NHS funding each year.
Now we are the only party with a detailed plan to fund the extra 8 billion the NHS says it needs - almost three times more than Labour will commit.
Ed Miliband warns of "stealth privatisation" of healthcare under Tories
Ed Miliband is campaigning in Stevenage, Hertfordshire today, where he has warned of “stealth privatisation” of healthcare if the Tories win the election.
A Tory second term means stealth privatisation of the National Health Service - NHS patients finding themselves pushed to the back of longer and longer queues, operations delayed and an NHS not there when people need it. Under the Tories, it would be a two-tier NHS where you have to pay to get seen.
Labour also unveiled details of its plans to cut the maximum income an NHS hospital can earn from private patients. Shadow health secretary, Andy Burnham, said the proportion of income which an NHS foundation trust can earn from private work would be cut from 49% to just 2% under a Labour government. Trusts would be allowed to exceed the 2% cap only if they meet strict safeguards to ensure NHS patients are put first. Burnham released figures which he said showed that the average trust’s income from private patients has increased by 58% since 2010 while 40% of new healthcare contracts are now going to private providers. He said:
It is shocking to see private companies winning just as many contracts as the NHS - and some with links to the Tory party too.
Following the Tories’ decision to allow hospitals to turn over up to half of their beds to private patients, the growing financial crisis in the NHS has seen many hospitals forced to treat more private patients in NHS beds too - while waiting times get worse for everyone else.
This is clear proof that the profit motive is ripping through the NHS under David Cameron. The NHS cannot survive another five years of the Tories.
I’ve taken the quotes from PA.
Updated
Nick Clegg rules out coalition deal with Labour that would rely on SNP
Nick Clegg has ruled out any deal with Labour that relies on “life support” from the SNP, the Financial Times is reporting today. The Lib Dem leader said that any coalition with the party that finished second in the election would lack “legitimacy” with voters, who would question the government’s “birthright”. He added that Labour has been consumed by “frothing bile” towards his party for the past five years.
I totally rule out any arrangements with the SNP - in the same way I rule out any arrangements with Ukip - because there is no meeting point for me with one party that basically wants to pull our country to bits and another party that wants us to pull out of the EU.
I would never recommend to the Liberal Democrats that we help establish a government which is basically on a life support system, where Alex Salmond could pull the plug any time he wants. No, no, no.
As our data editor Alberto Nardelli points out, Clegg’s political future most probably depends on the current coalition continuing. So his comments are hardly surprising.
Four thoughts on Clegg ruling out working with LAB/SNP: 1/4. In nearly all seats Lib Dems set to retain, Tories second
— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) April 25, 2015
2/4. Clegg's political future probably depends on current coalition continuing 3/4. Numbers will decide both who governs and Clegg's future
— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) April 25, 2015
4/4. It is sad to see the once champion of a more representative parliament now questioning a core principle of parliamentary democracy
— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) April 25, 2015
Updated
A YouGov poll for The Sun last night gave Labour a two-point lead on 35% to the Conservatives’ 33%, with Ukip on 13%, Liberal Democrats on 8% and Greens on 6%.
Latest YouGov poll (23 - 24 Apr): LAB - 35% (-) CON - 33% (-) UKIP - 13% (-) LDEM - 8% (-) GRN - 6% (+1)
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) April 24, 2015
Lord Ashcroft has explained his latest polling of the six battleground seats, three of which he has not surveyed before. He writes:
In Bristol North West, Charlotte Leslie is well ahead in the seat she won for the Conservatives in 2010 in a three-way fight with the Liberal Democrats. Elsewhere in the city, the Green party has been heavily targeting Bristol West, a seat the Lib Dems won in 2010 with a 20-point majority over Labour. I found the Greens in second place with a 25% vote share, with more voters attracted from the Lib Dems than from any other party. This, combined with the fact nearly three in 10 2010 Lib Dems have switched straight to Labour, would be enough for Labour to take the seat with a swing of 19 per cent if the result were repeated on 7 May. The Lib Dems are in third even though 70% said they had received literature, direct mail, visits or phone calls from them – more than from any other party in the seat.
Most arrestingly in this set of results, I found the Tories on course to take back Rochester & Strood. There was a hint that such a result might be possible when I polled the seat before the byelection last November that gave UKIP their second elected MP. Uncannily, 36% of voters in the constituency said at that time that they would probably vote Conservative at the general election, exactly the proportion that said the same in my new poll, while less than three quarters of Ukip byelection voters said they expected to stay with the party. A majority of voters in the seat said they wanted to see the Conservatives in government, including 37% who wanted an overall Tory majority, and 63% said they preferred Cameron to Miliband – suggesting many are treating the byelection and the general election as very separate exercises.
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Ashcroft Poll suggests Conservatives will take Rochester & Strood from Ukip
Lord Ashcroft has released his latest battleground polling. Most interestingly, the Conservatives look set to gain Rochester & Strood, where Tory defector Mark Reckless was re-elected as a Ukip candidate in November.
Latest Ashcroft constituency polls in some CON-LAB marginals as well as Bristol West, Thurrock and Rochester & Strood pic.twitter.com/HRL2H2Hmgd
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) April 25, 2015
Though it’s not all bad news for Ukip. The party are ahead in Thurrock by four points.
Labour, meanwhile, are on course to gain the Lib Dem-held Bristol West, where the Greens have jumped to second place. No doubt hugely disappointing news for Nick Clegg’s party.
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Here’s Cameron’s response when he was asked to clarify his football loyalties after his Croydon speech (which he read from an autocue):
I had what Natalie Bennett described as a brain fade.
I’m a Villa fan ... I must have been overcome by something ... this morning.
But there we are, these things sometimes happen when you are on the stump.
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Nigel Farage says he is receiving hospital treatment for a serious back condition
Nigel Farage has revealed he is receiving hospital treatment and has been prescribed temazepam for a serious back condition. In an interview with the Telegraph, the Ukip leader said he was in a lot of pain at the start of the general election campaign, but insisted that he is not unwell. Farage said:
I was not unwell, I have not had heart palpitations, but I was getting increasingly terrible pain in my shoulder, my back, and so I was suffering from neuralgic pain.
I am taking a few tablets but it is something I have got to live with and I have got to pace myself. I think I am going to have medical treatment for the rest of my life.
Farage was involved in a serious light aircraft crash on election day in May 2010 which left him with permanent nerve damage. He said that the severe pain in his arms and shoulder had intensified in recent weeks, leaving him unable to lift his arms more than 45 degrees and leading him to seek professional treatment.
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David Cameron blames brain fade for forgetting football team
It appears Cameron had a Natalie Bennett-style “brain fade” during his speech. He thought his football team was West Ham instead of Aston Villa. A simple mistake, right? Watch a video of the slip-up below.
David Cameron has just apologised for "brain fade" after getting his football team wrong - urged people to back West Ham, not Villa
— JamesLyons (@STJamesl) April 25, 2015
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Here’s more of David Cameron’s speech about his vision for BME communities:
Our mission is to make sure that as our economy recovers, people from every community share in that prosperity – that we spread it far and wide. Because after all, it doesn’t matter who you are or where you come from, we all want the same thing – a good job, a great education, the chance to get on, the chance to make it. Now when it comes to our key commitments to the British people for the next five years, there are many things that will help people in this hall. Tax cuts for millions – with everyone earning less than £12,500 taken out of income tax altogether. A new law so we have a tax-free minimum wage. The right to buy for housing association tenants so more people can own their own home. Thirty hours of free childcare for parents of three- and four-year-olds. A fully funded NHS that is there for you seven days a week.
But there are more specific things we can do to make sure we spread opportunity to every community. So today I’m setting us some new ambitions for the next five years, specifically for people from black and minority ethnic communities. I call it my 2020 vision: ambitious but realistic aspirations to help people from all our communities really thrive.
The Press Association’s Lindsay Jane Watling was in Croydon. She reported that Cameron was introduced by Tory candidate for Croydon Central, Gavin Barwell.
PM has arrived in East Croydon to set out his 2020 vision for black and ethnic minority communities. #GE15 pic.twitter.com/EGzNlpZw3b
— Lindsay Jane Watling (@LJWatling) April 25, 2015
Britain is a shining example of a country where multiple communities work, says David Cameron.
— Lindsay Jane Watling (@LJWatling) April 25, 2015
PM says he wants people from every background to be a part of the "jobs revolution". #GE2015 #Conservative pic.twitter.com/e6wIyGbWF0
— Lindsay Jane Watling (@LJWatling) April 25, 2015
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Morning briefing
Good morning and welcome to the Saturday edition of the Guardian election live blog, which we’re running every day until Britain goes to the polls on 7 May and, if we do end up with a hung parliament, for some time later.
I’m Nadia Khomami and I’ll be keeping you up to date with all of the happenings from today’s campaign. I’m on Twitter @nadiakhomami and I’ll be reading your comments below the line as well, so don’t be afraid to share your thoughts and direct me towards anything you think I’ve missed.
The big picture
While the rest of the country is talking about the winner of Masterchef, or settling down to a rainy day of Netflix and fry-ups, party leaders are out in force trying to persuade their core support, as well as undecided participants, to go out and vote for them on election day. There are fewer than two weeks to go to the election, and various polls released over the past couple of days have pointed to inconclusive results: two had the Conservatives ahead by four points and another two had Labour leading by two and three points respectively. So anything is still possible.
David Cameron is making a speech in Croydon, south London this morning, where he will launch his 2020 vision for black, Asian and minority ethnic communities. The prime minister will say a future Conservative government will build on the progress of the past five years and will deliver, by 2020, the following for people from a black, Asian or ethnic minority background:
- 20% more jobs
- 20% more students
- A 20% uplift in apprenticeship take-up
- 20,000 Start-Up Loans for new businesses
- 20% of new recruits in the police to be from BME backgrounds, and at least 10% in the armed forces
- 20% of Conservative candidates in retirement seats at the next general election
Cameron will say:
We’re the party of the first female prime minister. The party of the first Jewish prime minister. And I know that, one day, we’re going to be the party of the first black or Asian prime minister.’
I want this to be an opportunity country, where no matter who you are or where you’re from; whether you’re black, white, Asian or mixed race; whether you’re from the inner city or rural heartlands; you can make the most of your talents.
Labour is sending out its big guns today. Gordon Brown will be in Elderslie with Douglas Alexander to deliver a major speech calling on ‘proud patriotic Scots’ to vote Labour. The Guardian’s Scotland correspondent, Libby Brooks, writes:
Today Gordon Brown is appearing at a campaign event with Douglas Alexander, in Elderslie Village Hall, in Alexander’s constituency of Paisley and Renfrewshire South. As Ewen MacAskill reported yesterday, Alexander faces a fight there.
Brown will challenge the SNP to produce answers about how to create jobs within the post-oil economy, and argue that all parties have been unable to show how they would get high numbers of out-of-work young people in Scotland into jobs.
“In the campaign there has sadly been more talk about the job prospects of a few nationalist would-be MPs than about the job prospects of hundreds of thousands of Scots who will need new employment opportunities in the future.”
“So when the most important task ahead of us is to replace or upgrade the 80,000 zero-hour contracts in Scotland and create thousands of high-quality jobs in the new technologies, built on our research and development genius, the question is: who will do most to secure economic opportunities and high-quality jobs for Scots?”
The answer is, naturally, Labour, and Brown will go on to emphasise Scottish Labour’s commitment to making full, fulfilling and well-paid employment a central issue for the country’s future.
Deputy Labour leader, Harriet Harman, will meet voters in Glasgow with shadow Scottish secretary Margaret Curran.
Meanwhile, Nicola Sturgeon is also in Glasgow, and Nigel Farage is to make an address to an investors’ conference in London.
Your Saturday reading list
Former Tory treasurer and pollster Lord Ashcroft says the Conservative attacks on Ed Miliband are failing to turn wavering voters against him. Writing in the Independent, Ashcroft says that, rather than “crumbling” under fire, Miliband has won support by showing “a good deal of resilience in the face of some rather unseemly attacks”.
If the blue army is being outgunned that is not a matter of logistics, but because it lacks recruits. And that would not be surprising for a party that has been unable to reach very far beyond its core support for more than 20 years.
There has been too much emphasis from the Tories on the opposing leader’s weaknesses (or, in this case, the deals he may or may not do to get himself into office), which suggests to voters a party that can’t have much to say for itself.
David Marr writes in the Guardian about the looming electoral stalemate we are facing. The prospect should have protesters on the streets, he writes, but instead, we are calmly watching a truck heading to a cliff in slow motion.
The demonstrators outside Chatham House were not, it turned out, making the point that Nicola Sturgeon was jaundiced. I checked. The yellow masks of Scotland’s first minister were a rotten print job. The six quiet souls with a small budget and obvious placards – “Dance to my Tune Ed” – were there to save the union.
Shouldn’t St James’s Square have been packed with demonstrators, with tulips trampled and police horses holding back the crowds? Where were the banners and loudspeakers? Something big is happening here. A kingdom is at stake.
But to this visitor’s eye, these mute demonstrators seem to catch the mood of the 2015 campaign. I’m not talking about Scotland. Pride and enthusiasm are on the march up there. But politics isn’t swamping newspapers and television down south. It’s so quiet, so tidy. Much of the time, an election seems hardly to be happening at all.
Jonathan Freedland also writes in the Guardian that Britain must embrace the separatists if it wants to keep Scotland. Maybe it was once fine to speak with venom against those who would break up Britain, he writes, but now that is heard as venom directed not at the SNP but at the people who are choosing them: Scots.
Just as actors call Macbeth the Scottish play, so historians will for ever think of 2015 as the Scottish election. Whatever happens on 7 May – whoever ends up limping through the door of 10 Downing Street – the big, enduring fact of 2015 will be the shifting of the tectonic plates now under way in Scotland. It is nothing less than a realignment – and it will last.
As one longstanding Scottish observer puts it, the shift in allegiance from Labour to the Scottish National party is “not cyclical”. The pendulum has swung so far, it’s snapped off.
He has had plenty time to reflect on the conundrum now facing Cameron: how can a reforming Prime Minister get so much right, and be thrown out by voters? And why is it that being garlanded with praise by the IMF and foreign governments doesn’t matter at all? Cameron now carries the benediction of Barack Obama (“you must be doing something right!”) and every day seems to bring better economic news.
The polls
With 12 days to go, Labour are currently on course to win 268 seats and the Conservatives 273 seats. This means that Ed Miliband is more likely to become prime minister. As the New Statesman explained yesterday:
The brutal maths of this election mean that, while Labour and the Tories are headed for roughly the same number of seats, only Labour has a clear path to 323 seats; their potential partner, the SNP, are set to win nearly twice as many seats as the Tories’ best option, the Lib Dems, and the minor MPs on either side largely cancel each other out.
So for Cameron to win, he needs to win more seats than Labour – considerably more. We think he needs to win around 20-25 seats more.
If today were a song...
There’s some friends that I know living in this town and I’ve come far to see them. Gonna track em’ down. They live in a brick house painted white and brown.
It’s door-knocking time, and a lot of politicians will want to be your friend in the next couple of weeks.
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